Orientation and navigation in bats: known unknowns or unknown unknowns?

Bats have been extensively studied with regard to their ability to orient, navigate and hunt prey by means of echolocation, but almost nothing is known about how they orient and navigate in situations such as migration and homing outside the range of their echolocation system. As volant animals, bats face many of the same problems and challenges as birds. Migrating bats must relocate summer and winter home ranges over distances as far as 2,000 km. Foraging bats must be able to relocate their home roost if they range beyond a familiar area, and indeed circumstantial evidence suggests that these animals can home from more than 600 km. However, an extensive research program on homing and navigation in bats halted in the early 1970s. The field of bird navigation has advanced greatly since that time and many of the mechanisms that birds are known to use for navigation were not known or widely accepted at this time. In this paper I discuss what is known about orientation and navigation in bats and use bird navigation as a model for future research in bat navigation. Technology is advancing such that previous difficulties in studying orientation in bats in the field can be overcome and so that the mechanisms of navigation in this highly mobile animal can finally be elucidated.

The known unknowns and the unknown unknowns of the EMU. Bruegel Policy Contribution 2012/18, October 2012

Extensive prior research on the economics of European monetary union highlighted some potential risks (the known unknowns) but overlooked others (the unknown unknowns). Asymmetries among participating countries, the potentially destabilising character of a one-size-fits all monetary policy, the weakness of adjustment mechanisms, the lack of incentives for fiscal discipline, the possibility of sovereign solvency crises and their adverse consequences were all known and understood. But policymakers often relied on a complacent reading of the evidence. • The potential for financial disruption was vastly underestimated. Economists generally did not consider, or underestimated, the possibility of balance of payment crises such as those experienced by southern European countries, or the risk of a feedback loop between banks and sovereigns. • Remedying EMU’s systemic deficiencies is on the policy agenda. Banking union would go a long way towards addressing the fault lines. The urgent question for economists is if it is going to be enough and, if not, what else should complement the ‘bare-bones’ EMU of Maastricht.

BPMN research : what we know and what we don’t know

In this short keynote paper, I will briefly explore the current state of research and practice surrounding the BPMN standard. On basis of this analysis I will offer a personal outlook into the key emerging areas where I believe more research will be required to further understand BPMN, its premise and promise, and how we can shape – and join together – the landscape of BPMN practice and development in academia and industry.

Research on conceptual modelling : less known knowns and more unknown unknowns, please

In this invited paper I describe some personal views on the research field of conceptual modelling. I argue that the field has become entrenched in some “bad habits” that usually emerge in evolved paradigms and that we need to proactively pursue a dual research strategy incorporating new and different avenues that lead us to novel and impactful research contexts of conceptual modelling. I provide a framework that can guide this exploration and finish with some recommendations about how conceptual modelling research programs could proceed.

Marine life in the North Pacific Ocean: the known, unknown, and unknowable

Bacterioplankton [pdf] Phytoplankton [pdf] Zooplankton [pdf] Non-exploited fish and invertebrates [pdf] Commercially-important fish and invertebrates [pdf] Marine birds [pdf] Mammals [pdf] Supplemental table of Unknowns [html] (Document pdf contains 48 pages)

Marine life in the North Pacific: the known, unknown, and unknowable

Special Publication 2 On-line version On-line version includes links to the following files (these files are not included into publication): Bacterioplankton [pdf] Phytoplankton [pdf] Zooplankton [pdf] Non-exploited fish and invertebrates [pdf] Commercially-important fish and invertebrates [pdf] Marine birds [pdf] Mammals [pdf] Supplemental table of Unknowns [html]

Lesser-known worlds : bridging the telematic flows with located human experience through game design

This paper represents a new theorization of the role of location-based games (LBGs) as potentially playing specific roles in peoples’ access to the culture of cities [22]. A LBG is a game that employs mobile technologies as tools for game play in real world environments. We argue that as a new genre in the field of mobile entertainment, research in this area tends to be preoccupied with the newness of the technology and its commercial possibilities. However, this overlooks its potential to contribute to cultural production. We argue that the potential to contribute to cultural production lies in the capacity of these experiences to enhance relationships between specific groups and new urban spaces. Given that developers can design LBGs to be played with everyday devices in everyday environments, what new creative opportunities are available to everyday people?

Yet to be known

TBA: Triptych: Digital Print, PVC Text, Acrylic Sheet Total Size: 252cm x 119cm---------- The work employs text based representations of indigenous plants (3500 species names) and quotations from an eminent botanist. This information is spatialised to represent the geographic area within which the plants where recorded (by others-Gov’t database).---------- The work was exhibited at Eyes wide open (curators K Bradby and A Brandenberg) which was held at Gorepani Gallery, Albany WA to coincide with the first national screening on SBS Television of the Western Australian documentary A Million Acres a Year (Rijavec, F, Harrison, N & Bradby K (directors), Snakewood Films & Film Australia, c2003).

A Bayesian approach to assess interaction between known risk factors: The risk of lung cancer from exposure to asbestos and smoking

We review the literature on the combined effect of asbestos exposure and smoking on lung cancer, and explore a Bayesian approach to assess evidence of interaction. Previous approaches have focussed on separate tests for an additive or multiplicative relation. We extend these approaches by exploring the strength of evidence for either relation using approaches which allow the data to choose between both models. We then compare the different approaches.

Risky strategic behaviour : unintended consequences of good intentions in the homelessness service system

The delivery of human services occurs through a complex and often volatile system characterised by both competing and cooperating efforts. A recent strategic intention of government has been to integrate disparate service providers and programs into a more effective and efficient system using competitive funding regimes. A program of amalgamation has also been forecast and promoted as a further mechanism by which to link up smaller agencies thus creating economy and efficiency in the scale and scope of their service modes. Despite the current reliance on competitive funding models and amalgamation as the preferred ways forward for the sector little is known about their integrative capacity including their ability to predict outcomes and their consequences : the ‘unknown unknowns’. Drawing on an extensive data set of human services integration initiatives in Queensland, Australia, this paper examines the impact of government policy and service models and the risks arising from the tensions between competition and accountability on the one hand and the established good will and trust on the other. It is argued that unresolved, these tensions can lead to a weakening of the social infrastructure and make the system more vulnerable to inherent systemic risks. The paper finds that government’s efforts to externalise risk to the non-government sector leads to fragmentation of the service system and fractured collaborative capability. These unintended outcomes themselves have the unintended consequence of leaving governments disconnected from the service system and unable to provide the leadership role and direction necessary for sustained integration. Moreover, facilitating such a leadership role is undermined by behaviours that are directly contrary to collective integration models.