Performance assessment of a volcanic ash transport model mini-ensemble used for inverse modeling of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption

The requirement to forecast volcanic ash concentrations was amplified as a response to the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption when ash safety limits for aviation were introduced in the European area. The ability to provide accurate quantitative forecasts relies to a large extent on the source term which is the emissions of ash as a function of time and height. This study presents source term estimations of the ash emissions from the Eyjafjallajökull eruption derived with an inversion algorithm which constrains modeled ash emissions with satellite observations of volcanic ash. The algorithm is tested with input from two different dispersion models, run on three different meteorological input data sets. The results are robust to which dispersion model and meteorological data are used. Modeled ash concentrations are compared quantitatively to independent measurements from three different research aircraft and one surface measurement station. These comparisons show that the models perform reasonably well in simulating the ash concentrations, and simulations using the source term obtained from the inversion are in overall better agreement with the observations (rank correlation = 0.55, Figure of Merit in Time (FMT) = 25–46%) than simulations using simplified source terms (rank correlation = 0.21, FMT = 20–35%). The vertical structures of the modeled ash clouds mostly agree with lidar observations, and the modeled ash particle size distributions agree reasonably well with observed size distributions. There are occasionally large differences between simulations but the model mean usually outperforms any individual model. The results emphasize the benefits of using an ensemble-based forecast for improved quantification of uncertainties in future ash crises.

Inverse modeling of the 14C bomb pulse in stalagmites to constrain the dynamics of soil carbon cycling at selected European cave sites

The decomposition of soil organic matter (SOM) is temperature dependent, but its response to a future warmer climate remains equivocal. Enhanced rates of decomposition of SOM under increased global temperatures might cause higher CO2 emissions to the atmosphere, and could therefore constitute a strong positive feedback. The magnitude of this feedback however remains poorly understood, primarily because of the difficulty in quantifying the temperature sensitivity of stored, recalcitrant carbon that comprises the bulk (>90%) of SOM in most soils. In this study we investigated the effects of climatic conditions on soil carbon dynamics using the attenuation of the 14C ‘bomb’ pulse as recorded in selected modern European speleothems. These new data were combined with published results to further examine soil carbon dynamics, and to explore the sensitivity of labile and recalcitrant organic matter decomposition to different climatic conditions. Temporal changes in 14C activity inferred from each speleothem was modelled using a three pool soil carbon inverse model (applying a Monte Carlo method) to constrain soil carbon turnover rates at each site. Speleothems from sites that are characterised by semi-arid conditions, sparse vegetation, thin soil cover and high mean annual air temperatures (MAATs), exhibit weak attenuation of atmospheric 14C ‘bomb’ peak (a low damping effect, D in the range: 55–77%) and low modelled mean respired carbon ages (MRCA), indicating that decomposition is dominated by young, recently fixed soil carbon. By contrast, humid and high MAAT sites that are characterised by a thick soil cover and dense, well developed vegetation, display the highest damping effect (D = c. 90%), and the highest MRCA values (in the range from 350 ± 126 years to 571 ± 128 years). This suggests that carbon incorporated into these stalagmites originates predominantly from decomposition of old, recalcitrant organic matter. SOM turnover rates cannot be ascribed to a single climate variable, e.g. (MAAT) but instead reflect a complex interplay of climate (e.g. MAAT and moisture budget) and vegetation development.

Inverse Modeling of GPS Multipath for Snow Depth Estimation-Part I: Formulation and Simulations

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Inverse Modeling of GPS Multipath for Snow Depth Estimation-Part II: Application and Validation

GPS multipath reflectometry (GPS-MR) is a technique that uses geodetic quality GPS receivers to estimate snow depth. The accuracy and precision of GPS-MR retrievals are evaluated at three different sites: grasslands, alpine, and forested. The assessment yields a correlation of 0.98 and an rms error of 6-8 cm for observed snow depths of up to 2.5 m. GPS-MR underestimates in situ snow depth by 10%-15% at these three sites, although the validation methods do not measure the same footprint as GPS-MR.

Avoiding Overfitting in Inverse Modeling of Chloride Migration in Concrete

Inverse analysis for reactive transport of chlorides through concrete in the presence of electric field is presented. The model is solved using MATLAB’s built-in solvers “pdepe.m” and “ode15s.m”. The results from the model are compared with experimental measurements from accelerated migration test and a function representing the lack of fit is formed. This function is optimised with respect to varying amount of key parameters defining the model. Levenberg-Marquardt trust-region optimisation approach is employed. The paper presents a method by which the degree of inter-dependency between parameters and sensitivity (significance) of each parameter towards model predictions can be studied on models with or without clearly defined governing equations. Eigen value analysis of the Hessian matrix was employed to investigate and avoid over-parametrisation in inverse analysis. We investigated simultaneous fitting of parameters for diffusivity, chloride binding as defined by Freundlich isotherm (thermodynamic) and binding rate (kinetic parameter). Fitting of more than 2 parameters, simultaneously, demonstrates a high degree of parameter inter-dependency. This finding is significant as mathematical models for representing chloride transport rely on several parameters for each mode of transport (i.e., diffusivity, binding, etc.), which combined may lead to unreliable simultaneous estimation of parameters.

Geological realism in hydrogeological and geophysical inverse modeling: A review

Scientific curiosity, exploration of georesources and environmental concerns are pushing the geoscientific research community toward subsurface investigations of ever-increasing complexity. This review explores various approaches to formulate and solve inverse problems in ways that effectively integrate geological concepts with geophysical and hydrogeological data. Modern geostatistical simulation algorithms can produce multiple subsurface realizations that are in agreement with conceptual geological models and statistical rock physics can be used to map these realizations into physical properties that are sensed by the geophysical or hydrogeological data. The inverse problem consists of finding one or an ensemble of such subsurface realizations that are in agreement with the data. The most general inversion frameworks are presently often computationally intractable when applied to large-scale problems and it is necessary to better understand the implications of simplifying (1) the conceptual geological model (e.g., using model compression); (2) the physical forward problem (e.g., using proxy models); and (3) the algorithm used to solve the inverse problem (e.g., Markov chain Monte Carlo or local optimization methods) to reach practical and robust solutions given today's computer resources and knowledge. We also highlight the need to not only use geophysical and hydrogeological data for parameter estimation purposes, but also to use them to falsify or corroborate alternative geological scenarios.

Balancing the (carbon) budget: Using linear inverse models to estimate carbon flows and mass-balance 13C:15N labelling experiments in low oxygen sediments.

Over 1 million km² of seafloor experience permanent low-oxygen conditions within oxygen minimum zones (OMZs). OMZs are predicted to grow as a consequence of climate change, potentially affecting oceanic biogeochemical cycles. The Arabian Sea OMZ impinges upon the western Indian continental margin at bathyal depths (150 - 1500 m) producing a strong depth dependent oxygen gradient at the sea floor. The influence of the OMZ upon the short term processing of organic matter by sediment ecosystems was investigated using in situ stable isotope pulse chase experiments. These deployed doses of ¹³C:¹⁵N labeled organic matter onto the sediment surface at four stations from across the OMZ (water depth 540 - 1100 m; [O₂] = 0.35 - 15 μM). In order to prevent experimentally anoxia, the mesocosms were not sealed. ¹³C and ¹⁵N labels were traced into sediment, bacteria, fauna and ¹³C into sediment porewater DIC and DOC. However, the DIC and DOC flux to the water column could not be measured, limiting our capacity to obtain mass-balance for C in each experimental mesocosm. Linear Inverse Modeling (LIM) provides a method to obtain a mass-balanced model of carbon flow that integrates stable-isotope tracer data with community biomass and biogeochemical flux data from a range of sources. Here we present an adaptation of the LIM methodology used to investigate how ecosystem structure influenced carbon flow across the Indian margin OMZ. We demonstrate how oxygen conditions affect food-web complexity, affecting the linkages between the bacteria, foraminifera and metazoan fauna, and their contributions to benthic respiration. The food-web models demonstrate how changes in ecosystem complexity are associated with oxygen availability across the OMZ and allow us to obtain a complete carbon budget for the stationa where stable-isotope labelling experiments were conducted.

Dispersivity Determination Through a Modeling Approach From a Tracer Test Based on Total Br Concentration in Soil Samples

Determination of reliable solute transport parameters is an essential aspect for the characterization of the mechanisms and processes involved in solute transport (e.g., pesticides, fertilizers, contaminants) through the unsaturated zone. A rapid inexpensive method to estimate the dispersivity parameter at the field scale is presented herein. It is based on the quantification by the X-ray fluorescence solid-state technique of total bromine in soil, along with an inverse numerical modeling approach. The results show that this methodology is a good alternative to the classic Br− determination in soil water by ion chromatography. A good agreement between the observed and simulated total soil Br is reported. The results highlight the potential applicability of both combined techniques to infer readily solute transport parameters under field conditions.

Parameter estimation of a two-horizon soil profile by combining crop canopy and surface soil moisture observations using GLUE

Estimation of soil parameters by inverse modeling using observations on either surface soil moisture or crop variables has been successfully attempted in many studies, but difficulties to estimate root zone properties arise when heterogeneous layered soils are considered. The objective of this study was to explore the potential of combining observations on surface soil moisture and crop variables - leaf area index (LAI) and above-ground biomass for estimating soil parameters (water holding capacity and soil depth) in a two-layered soil system using inversion of the crop model STICS. This was performed using GLUE method on a synthetic data set on varying soil types and on a data set from a field experiment carried out in two maize plots in South India. The main results were (i) combination of surface soil moisture and above-ground biomass provided consistently good estimates with small uncertainity of soil properties for the two soil layers, for a wide range of soil paramater values, both in the synthetic and the field experiment, (ii) above-ground biomass was found to give relatively better estimates and lower uncertainty than LAI when combined with surface soil moisture, especially for estimation of soil depth, (iii) surface soil moisture data, either alone or combined with crop variables, provided a very good estimate of the water holding capacity of the upper soil layer with very small uncertainty whereas using the surface soil moisture alone gave very poor estimates of the soil properties of the deeper layer, and (iv) using crop variables alone (else above-ground biomass or LAI) provided reasonable estimates of the deeper layer properties depending on the soil type but provided poor estimates of the first layer properties. The robustness of combining observations of the surface soil moisture and the above-ground biomass for estimating two layer soil properties, which was demonstrated using both synthetic and field experiments in this study, needs now to be tested for a broader range of climatic conditions and crop types, to assess its potential for spatial applications. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Characterization of exoplanet atmospheres : spectral retrieval and chemistry

The study of exoplanets is rapidly evolving into an important and exciting field of its own. My investigations over the past half-decade have focused on understanding just a small sliver of what they are trying to tell us. That small sliver is their atmospheres. Atmospheres are the buffer between the bulk planet and the vacuum of space. The atmosphere is an important component of a planet as it is the most readily observable and contains the most information about the physical processes that can occur in a planet. I have focused on two aspects of exoplanetary atmospheres. First, I aimed to understand the chemical mechanisms that control the atmospheric abundances. Second, I focused on interpreting exoplanet atmospheric spectra and what they tell us about the temperatures and compositions through inverse modeling. Finally, I interpreted the retrieved temperature and abundances from inverse modeling in the context of chemical disequilibrium in the planetary atmospheres.

Termocronologia (U-Th)He e reativação da margem continental do sudeste do Brasil: seção Serra da Mantiqueira - Gráben da Guanabara

A evolução da margem continental do sudeste do Brasil tem sido discutida por diversos autores desde meados do século passado até os dias atuais, especialmente no contexto da origem e evolução dos escarpamentos e das bacias tafrogênicas. Buscou-se contribuir com novos dados sobre a evolução da área a partir da aplicação da termocronologia de baixa temperatura (U-Th)/He em apatita, que oferece uma sensibilidade significativa para registrar movimentações tectônicas na crosta superior. Foi possível obter idades em 107 cristais de apatita de 18 amostras do embasamento coletadas no perfil com orientação NW-SE, numa seção entre a Serra da Mantiqueira e o Gráben da Guanabara. As idades corrigidas variam entre 250,1 8,7 Ma e 43,5 1,9 Ma (2 σ) e as não corrigidas entre 174,13 3,03 Ma e 27,07 0,60 Ma (1 σ). O Neocretáceo, o Eocretáceo e o Paleoceno são os principais registros no conjunto de dados, em ordem de importância. No Neocretáceo, o intervalo entre 83,6 e 72,1 Ma (Campaniano) representa o maior destaque nos registros termocronológicos, embora os outros registros (Maastrichtiano e Santoniano) também estejam presentes e sejam importantes. As idades do Neocretáceo destacam a importância dos eventos tectonomagmáticos e soerguimento regional na história térmica dessa área, inclusive com idades (~86 Ma) atribuídas ao contexto de soerguimento da Serra do Mar. As idades do Eocretáceo indicam o registro de eventos térmicos mais antigos, vinculados à evolução pré-rifte. Já os dados do Paleoceno estariam associados ao evento de reativação responsável pela implantação do sistema de riftes continentais (~65 Ma) e as idades do Eoceno, restritas à borda de falha da bacia de Resende (49,7 Ma e 43,5 Ma), à reativação do sistema de riftes nessa área. A dispersão de idades foi interpretada como efeito dos danos de radiação já que muitos grãos apresentam correlação entre idade e concentração de urânio (eU). Os padrões de tempo-temperatura (t-T), definidos a partir dos modelos HeFTy calibrados para o modelo de difusão que considera os efeitos de danos de radiação nos cristais, registraram eventos de resfriamento rápido, os quais mostram correlação direta com episódios de reativação e soerguimento na margem continental e com registros nas bacias continentais e marginais. O padrão de aumento das idades com a elevação, assim como da costa em direção ao interior é observado, mas mostra-se alterado pela ocorrência de idades mais jovens associadas à complexa evolução dessa margem continental com desnivelamentos de blocos vinculados à tectônica pós-rift, numa situação que ressalta a influência dos episódios de reativação. As estimativas de denudação total variam entre 1,2 e 2,8 km. As taxas de erosão variam entre 15,2 e 35,3 m/Ma. A evolução da área indica não apenas a influência de um evento específico mas, possivelmente, uma combinação de episódios que se alternaram e/ou atuaram em conjunto em determinados períodos. Os eventos de reativação mais antigos, combinados com os mais recentes, exibem os seus remanescentes na paisagem (serras da Mantiqueira e do Mar e os grábens e bacias sedimentares) e assumem papel fundamental na evolução da área. Os registros de tais episódios podem ser observados nas histórias térmicas das rochas e nos depósitos correlativos nas bacias sedimentares marginais e intracontinentais.