Application of intervention analysis to evaluate the impacts of special events on freeways

In China in particular, large, planned special events (e.g., the Olympic Games, etc.) are viewed as great opportunities for economic development. Large numbers of visitors from other countries and provinces may be expected to attend such events, bringing in significant tourism dollars. However, as a direct result of such events, the transportation system is likely to face great challenges as travel demand increases beyond its original design capacity. Special events in central business districts (CBD) in particular will further exacerbate traffic congestion on surrounding freeway segments near event locations. To manage the transportation system, it is necessary to plan and prepare for such special events, which requires prediction of traffic conditions during the events. This dissertation presents a set of novel prototype models to forecast traffic volumes along freeway segments during special events. Almost all research to date has focused solely on traffic management techniques under special event conditions. These studies, at most, provided a qualitative analysis and there was a lack of an easy-to-implement method for quantitative analyses. This dissertation presents a systematic approach, based separately on univariate time series model with intervention analysis and multivariate time series model with intervention analysis for forecasting traffic volumes on freeway segments near an event location. A case study was carried out, which involved analyzing and modelling the historical time series data collected from loop-detector traffic monitoring stations on the Second and Third Ring Roads near Beijing Workers Stadium. The proposed time series models, with expected intervention, are found to provide reasonably accurate forecasts of traffic pattern changes efficiently. They may be used to support transportation planning and management for special events.

Application of Intervention Analysis to Evaluate the Impacts of Special Events on Freeways

In China in particular, large, planned special events (e.g., the Olympic Games, etc.) are viewed as great opportunities for economic development. Large numbers of visitors from other countries and provinces may be expected to attend such events, bringing in significant tourism dollars. However, as a direct result of such events, the transportation system is likely to face great challenges as travel demand increases beyond its original design capacity. Special events in central business districts (CBD) in particular will further exacerbate traffic congestion on surrounding freeway segments near event locations. To manage the transportation system, it is necessary to plan and prepare for such special events, which requires prediction of traffic conditions during the events. This dissertation presents a set of novel prototype models to forecast traffic volumes along freeway segments during special events. Almost all research to date has focused solely on traffic management techniques under special event conditions. These studies, at most, provided a qualitative analysis and there was a lack of an easy-to-implement method for quantitative analyses. This dissertation presents a systematic approach, based separately on univariate time series model with intervention analysis and multivariate time series model with intervention analysis for forecasting traffic volumes on freeway segments near an event location. A case study was carried out, which involved analyzing and modelling the historical time series data collected from loop-detector traffic monitoring stations on the Second and Third Ring Roads near Beijing Workers Stadium. The proposed time series models, with expected intervention, are found to provide reasonably accurate forecasts of traffic pattern changes efficiently. They may be used to support transportation planning and management for special events.

Disturbance frequency and community structure in a twenty-five year intervention study

Models of community regulation commonly incorporate gradients of disturbance inversely related to the role of biotic interactions in regulating intermediate trophic levels. Higher trophic-level organisms are predicted to be more strongly limited by intermediate levels of disturbance than are the organisms they consume. We used a manipulation of the frequency of hydrological disturbance in an intervention analysis to examine its effects on small-fish communities in the Everglades, USA. From 1978 to 2002, we monitored fishes at one long-hydroperiod (average 350 days) and at one short-hydroperiod (average 259 days; monitoring started here in 1985) site. At a third site, managers intervened in 1985 to diminish the frequency and duration of marsh drying. By the late 1990s, the successional dynamics of density and relative abundance at the intervention site converged on those of the long-hydroperiod site. Community change was manifested over 3 to 5 years following a dry-down if a site remained inundated; the number of days since the most recent drying event and length of the preceding dry period were useful for predicting population dynamics. Community dissimilarity was positively correlated with the time since last dry. Community dynamics resulted from change in the relative abundance of three groups of species linked by life-history responses to drought. Drought frequency and intensity covaried in response to hydrological manipulation at the landscape scale; community-level successional dynamics converged on a relatively small range of species compositions when drought return-time extended beyond 4 years. The density of small fishes increased with diminution of drought frequency, consistent with disturbance-limited community structure; less-frequent drying than experienced in this study (i.e., longer return times) yields predator-dominated regulation of small-fish communities in some parts of the Everglades.

A motivação nas aulas de Dança Clássica: a música como estímulo promotor de motivação em alunas do 4º ano do Curso de Dança da Academia de Música de Vilar do Paraíso

Relatório Final de Estágio apresentado à Escola Superior de Dança, com vista à obtenção do grau de Mestre em Ensino de Dança.

English grammar games in primary education

The purpose of this study was to analyse pupils’ English grammar acquisition from competitive and cooperative approaches. After searching a wide range of authors’ contribution to English language learning, grammar acquisition, classroom environment and language games. A hundred and twenty pupils from three schools; two from Ripoll and one from Campdevànol were enrolled in a specific grammar games intervention. This was imparted in three different phases: first of all, I interviewed the three teachers from the three schools, then I put into practice my competitive and cooperative games which I designed especially for this study (all the sessions were carried, assessed and registered by myself); finally, all pupils answered a questionnaire related to their experiences in my grammar games intervention. Analysis of teaching interventions showed that, in terms of English language acquisition, pupils used different strategies to show up understanding and achieve the objective of the game such as: recalling their background knowledge, expressing sentences influenced by their internal language and their mother tongue. Data collected revealed that most difficulties were founded in team work, even more in competitive games. The results also showed that team work is something which has to be developed step by step in order to achieve language learning and all pupils’ active participation successfully.

Ecological and Epidemiological Analyses of Multiple Sclerosis Relapse Rate

The underlying cause of many human autoimmune diseases is unknown, but several environmental factors are implicated in triggering the self-destructive immune reactions. Multiple Sclerosis (MS) is a chronic autoimmune disease of the central nervous system, potentially leading to persistent neurological deterioration. The cause of MS is not known, and apart from immunomodulatory treatments there is no cure. In the early phase of the disease, relapsing-remitting MS (RR-MS) is characterized by unpredictable exacerbations of the neurological symptoms called relapses, which can occur at different intervals ranging from 4 weeks to several years. Microbial infections are known to be able to trigger MS relapses, and the patients are instructed to avoid all factors that might increase the risk of infections and to properly use antibiotics as well as to take care of dental hygiene. Among those environmental factors which are known to increase susceptibility to infections, high ambient air inhalable particulate matter levels affect all people within a geographical region. During the period of interest in this thesis, the occurrence of MS relapses could be effectively reduced by injections of interferon, which has immunomodulatory and antiviral properties. In this thesis, ecological and epidemiological analyses were used to study the possible connection between MS relapse occurrence, population level viral infections and air quality factors, as well as the effects of interferon medication. Hospital archive data were collected retrospectively from 1986-2001, a period in time ranging from when interferon medication first became available until just before other disease-modifying MS therapies arrived on the market. The grouped data were studied with logistic regression and intervention analysis, and individual patient data with survival analysis. Interferons proved to be effective in the treatment of MS in this observational study, as the amount of MS exacerbations was lower during interferon use as compared to the time before interferon treatment. A statistically significant temporal relationship between MS relapses and inhalable particular matter (PM₁₀) concentrations was found in this study, which implies that MS patients are affected by the exposure to PM₁₀. Interferon probably protected against the effect of PM₁₀, because a significant increase in the risk of exacerbations was only observed in MS patients without interferon medication following environmental exposure to population level specific viral infections and PM₁₀. Apart from being antiviral, interferon could thus also attenuate the enhancement of immune reactions caused by ambient air PM₁₀. The retrospective approach utilizing carefully constructed hospital records proved to be an economical and reliable source of MS disease information for statistical analyses.

Análise do mecanismo de transmissão dos preços internacionais de commodities agrícolas sobre o comportamento da taxa de câmbio real no Brasil

This paper examined the transmission mechanism of international prices of agricultural commodities into the real exchange rate in Brazil for the period from January 2000 to February 2010. We used time series models (ARIMA Model, Transfer Model, Intervention Analysis, Johansen Cointegration Test) in determination of the short and long run elasticities. Transfer Function Model results show that changes in international prices of agricultural commodities are transmitted to the real exchange rate in Brazil in the short run, however, that transmission is less than unity, thus configuring the inelastic relationship. Johansen cointegration tests show that these variables are not co-integrated, no longer converge to the long-run equilibrium. These results are in agreement Cashim et al. (2004), which also found no long run relationship between real exchange rate and commodity prices in the case of Brazil. These results show that monetary shocks have greater weight on changes of the real exchange rate than real shocks.

Influência da fisioterapia complexa descongestiva associada à ingestão de triglicerídeos de cadeia média no tratamento do linfedema de membro superior

OBJETIVO: Verificar a influência da utilização da fisioterapia complexa descongestiva associada à dietoterapia com triglicerídeos de cadeia média (TCM) como forma de intervenção no linfedema de membro superior (MS). MÉTODOS: Para a avaliação do linfedema, foram utilizadas cirtometria, volumetria, pregas cutâneas e quantidade de água corporal total. A Escala Visual Análoga (EVA) foi utilizada para avaliar as sensações de desconforto, peso e dor no MS. Participaram deste estudo dez mulheres mastectomizadas com linfedema de MS homolateral à cirurgia, com idade média de 65,9 ± 10,4 anos e índice de massa corpórea (IMC) de 26,8 ± 3,0kg/m² que, após avaliação nutricional, foram divididas aleatoriamente em dois grupos: Grupo Controle (n= 5), submetido ao tratamento fisioterapêutico constando da terapia complexa descongestiva (massagem clássica, drenagem linfática manual, bandagem compressiva e cuidados com a pele) três vezes na semana, durante quatro semanas; Grupo TCM (n= 5), submetido ao mesmo protocolo fisioterapêutico somado ao tratamento dietético diário com ingestão de TCM, por quatro semanas. RESULTADOS: Ao final da intervenção, a análise da cirtometria e da volumetria mostraram diferenças significativas entre os grupos (< 0,05), com maior redução do linfedema no Grupo TCM. Não houve diferença significativa nos valores das pregas cutâneas e da quantidade de água corporal total. A sensação de peso no membro superior, antes e após a intervenção, foi significativamente menor (< 0,05) no Grupo TCM. CONCLUSÕES: O tratamento fisioterapêutico somado à dietoterapia com ingestão de TCM em mulheres portadoras de linfedema de MS pós-cirurgia e tratamento de câncer de mama foi efetivo na involução desta condição.

Behavioral journalism newsletters to increase employee participation in a free worksite wellness center

Background. Providing an worksite fitness center for employees is an effective setting to increase an adult’s levels of physical activity, demonstrably reducing health care costs and elevating employee productivity. Increasing compliance and adherence among employees to consistently utilize an onsite facility remains a challenge.^ Purpose. To illustrate if two electronic behavioral journalism newsletters can increase employee participation in a free worksite wellness center.^ Design. A randomized control trial was implemented. ^ Setting. A large petroleum-producing corporation located in Houston, Texas Subjects.70 full or part time employees that had checked into visited the wellness center during September, October, and November 2009. ^ Intervention. Two behavioral journalism newsletters were created based on authentic community member role model interviews. Newsletters were distributed to intervention group participants via company email. Intervention and control group participant’s visits to the wellness center were monitored via a key card check in system at the facility for two weeks following the newsletter intervention.^ Analysis. Count variable statistics were used to identify rate differences between the intervention and control group wellness center visits. A binomial test for equality of proportions was used to identify differences between participants that had at least one visit to the wellness center compared with those with none.^ Results. Both intervention and control groups had a baseline of zero wellness center visits. The control group had a mean visit rate 0.441 and the intervention group had 0.857. A 0.416, almost one half more visits were found among the intervention group.^ Conclusion. This study indicates that behavioral journalism newsletters featuring a role model from within the worksite population can be a cost effective communication method to improve participation in an onsite wellness center. ^

Efficiency from pharmacy inventory technology: A means to improving quality in non-profit hospitals

Hospitals, like all organizations, have both a mission and a finite supply of resources with which to accomplish that mission. Because the inventory of therapeutic drugs is among the more expensive resources needed by a hospital to achieve its mission, a conceptual model of structure plus process equals outcome posits that adequate emphasis should be placed on optimization of the organization's investment in this important structural resource to provide highest quality outcomes. Therefore emphasis should be placed on the optimization of pharmacy inventory because lowering the financial investment in drug inventory and associated costs increases productive efficiency, a key element of quality. ^ In this study, a post-intervention analysis of a hospital pharmacy inventory management technology implementation at The University of Texas M.D. Anderson Cancer Center was conducted to determine if an intervention which reduced a hospital's financial investment in pharmaceutical inventory provided an opportunity to incrementally optimize the organization's mix of structural resources thereby improving quality of care. The results suggest that hospital pharmacies currently lacking technology to support automated purchasing logistics and perpetual, real-time inventory management for drugs may achieve measurable benefits from the careful implementation of such technology, enabling the hospital to lower its investment in on-hand inventory and, potentially, to reduce overall purchasing expenditures. ^ The importance of these savings to the hospital and potentially to the patient should not be underestimated for their ability to generate funding for previously unfunded public health programs or in their ability to provide financial relief to patients in the form of lower drug costs given the current climate of escalating healthcare costs and tightening reimbursements.^

Australia's National Mental Health Strategy and deinstitutionalization: some empirical results

Objective: To determine the role of the National Mental Health Strategy in the deinstitutionalization of patients in psychiatric hospitals in Queensland. Method: Regression analysis (using the maximum likelihood method) has been applied to relevant time-series datasets on public psychiatric institutions in Queensland. In particular, data on both patients and admissions per 10 000 population are analysed in detail from 1953-54 to the present, although data are presented from 1883-84. Results: These Queensland data indicate that deinstitutionalization was a continuing process from the 1950s to the present. However, it is clear that the experience varied from period to period. For example, the fastest change (in both patients and admissions) took place in the period 1953-54 to 1973-74, followed by the period 1974-75 to 1984-85. Conclusions: In large part, the two policies associated with deinstitutionalization, namely a discharge policy ('opening the back door') and an admission policy ('closing the front door') had been implemented before the advent of the National Mental Health Strategy in January 1993. Deinstitutionalization was most rapid in the 30-year period to the early 1980s: the process continued in the 1990s, but at a much slower rate. Deinstitutionalization was, in large part, over before the Strategy was developed and implemented.

The rational design of vaccines

This review provides an insight into the various opportunities for vaccine intervention, analysis of strategies for vaccine development, vaccine ability to modulate immune responses and resultant rational vaccine design. In addition, wider aspects are considered, such as biotechnological advances, advances in immunological understanding and host-pathogen interactions. The key question addressed here is, with all our research and understanding, have we reached a new echelon in vaccine development, that of rational design? ©2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Measuring the impact of a quality improvement collaboration to decrease maternal mortality in a Ghanaian regional hospital.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the performance of a continuous quality improvement collaboration at Ridge Regional Hospital, Accra, Ghana, that aimed to halve maternal and neonatal deaths. METHODS: In a quasi-experimental, pre- and post-intervention analysis, system deficiencies were analyzed and 97 improvement activities were implemented from January 2007 to December 2011. Data were collected on outcomes and implementation rates of improvement activities. Severity-adjustment models were used to calculate counterfactual mortality ratios. Regression analysis was used to determine the association between improvement activities, staffing, and maternal mortality. RESULTS: Maternal mortality decreased by 22.4% between 2007 and 2011, from 496 to 385 per 100000 deliveries, despite a 50% increase in deliveries and five- and three-fold increases in the proportion of pregnancies complicated by obstetric hemorrhage and hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, respectively. Case fatality rates for obstetric hemorrhage and hypertensive disorders of pregnancy decreased from 14.8% to 1.6% and 3.1% to 1.1%, respectively. The mean implementation score was 68% for the 97 improvement processes. Overall, 43 maternal deaths were prevented by the intervention; however, risk severity-adjustment models indicated that an even greater number of deaths was averted. Mortality reduction was correlated with 26 continuous quality improvement activities, and with the number of anesthesia nurses and labor midwives. CONCLUSION: The implementation of quality improvement activities was closely correlated with improved maternal mortality.

Instructional Gaming

This action research will investigate instructional games as a strategy to increase third grade students’ engagement and motivation. A researcher-created behavior checklist and survey will document students’ behavior and attitudes during baseline, intervention, and post intervention. Analysis will investigate changes in engagement, motivation, and grades due to the gaming intervention.

Long-term safety and efficacy of percutaneous coronary intervention with stenting and coronary artery bypass surgery for multivessel coronary artery disease - A meta-analysis with 5-year patient-level data from the ARTS, ERACI-II, MASS-II, and SoS trials

Background-Randomized trials that studied clinical outcomes after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) with bare metal stenting versus coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) are underpowered to properly assess safety end points like death, stroke, and myocardial infarction. Pooling data from randomized controlled trials increases the statistical power and allows better assessment of the treatment effect in high-risk subgroups. Methods and Results-We performed a pooled analysis of 3051 patients in 4 randomized trials evaluating the relative safety and efficacy of PCI with stenting and CABG at 5 years for the treatment of multivessel coronary artery disease. The primary end point was the composite end point of death, stroke, or myocardial infarction. The secondary end point was the occurrence of major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular accidents, death, stroke, myocardial infarction, and repeat revascularization. We tested for heterogeneities in treatment effect in patient subgroups. At 5 years, the cumulative incidence of death, myocardial infarction, and stroke was similar in patients randomized to PCI with stenting versus CABG (16.7% versus 16.9%, respectively; hazard ratio, 1.04, 95% confidence interval, 0.86 to 1.27; P = 0.69). Repeat revascularization, however, occurred significantly more frequently after PCI than CABG (29.0% versus 7.9%, respectively; hazard ratio, 0.23; 95% confidence interval, 0.18 to 0.29; P<0.001). Major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events were significantly higher in the PCI than the CABG group (39.2% versus 23.0%, respectively; hazard ratio, 0.53; 95% confidence interval, 0.45 to 0.61; P<0.001). No heterogeneity of treatment effect was found in the subgroups, including diabetic patients and those presenting with 3-vessel disease. Conclusions-In this pooled analysis of 4 randomized trials, PCI with stenting was associated with a long-term safety profile similar to that of CABG. However, as a result of persistently lower repeat revascularization rates in the CABG patients, overall major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular event rates were significantly lower in the CABG group at 5 years.