Scenarios Generation for Multi-Agent simulation of Electricity Markets based on Intelligent Data Analysis

This document presents a tool able to automatically gather data provided by real energy markets and to generate scenarios, capture and improve market players’ profiles and strategies by using knowledge discovery processes in databases supported by artificial intelligence techniques, data mining algorithms and machine learning methods. It provides the means for generating scenarios with different dimensions and characteristics, ensuring the representation of real and adapted markets, and their participating entities. The scenarios generator module enhances the MASCEM (Multi-Agent Simulator of Competitive Electricity Markets) simulator, endowing a more effective tool for decision support. The achievements from the implementation of the proposed module enables researchers and electricity markets’ participating entities to analyze data, create real scenarios and make experiments with them. On the other hand, applying knowledge discovery techniques to real data also allows the improvement of MASCEM agents’ profiles and strategies resulting in a better representation of real market players’ behavior. This work aims to improve the comprehension of electricity markets and the interactions among the involved entities through adequate multi-agent simulation.

A multi-agent architecture for intelligent data analysis

The present study introduces a multi-agent architecture designed for doing automation process of data integration and intelligent data analysis. Different from other approaches the multi-agent architecture was designed using a multi-agent based methodology. Tropos, an agent based methodology was used for design. Based on the proposed architecture, we describe a Web based application where the agents are responsible to analyse petroleum well drilling data to identify possible abnormalities occurrence. The intelligent data analysis methods used was the Neural Network.

Recent trends in intelligent data analysis

European Regional Development Fund

Intelligent reliability analysis with incomplete covariates

The reliability analysis is crucial to reducing unexpected down time, severe failures and ever tightened maintenance budget of engineering assets. Hazard based reliability methods are of particular interest as hazard reflects the current health status of engineering assets and their imminent failure risks. Most existing hazard models were constructed using the statistical methods. However, these methods were established largely based on two assumptions: one is the assumption of baseline failure distributions being accurate to the population concerned and the other is the assumption of effects of covariates on hazards. These two assumptions may be difficult to achieve and therefore compromise the effectiveness of hazard models in the application. To address this issue, a non-linear hazard modelling approach is developed in this research using neural networks (NNs), resulting in neural network hazard models (NNHMs), to deal with limitations due to the two assumptions for statistical models. With the success of failure prevention effort, less failure history becomes available for reliability analysis. Involving condition data or covariates is a natural solution to this challenge. A critical issue for involving covariates in reliability analysis is that complete and consistent covariate data are often unavailable in reality due to inconsistent measuring frequencies of multiple covariates, sensor failure, and sparse intrusive measurements. This problem has not been studied adequately in current reliability applications. This research thus investigates such incomplete covariates problem in reliability analysis. Typical approaches to handling incomplete covariates have been studied to investigate their performance and effects on the reliability analysis results. Since these existing approaches could underestimate the variance in regressions and introduce extra uncertainties to reliability analysis, the developed NNHMs are extended to include handling incomplete covariates as an integral part. The extended versions of NNHMs have been validated using simulated bearing data and real data from a liquefied natural gas pump. The results demonstrate the new approach outperforms the typical incomplete covariates handling approaches. Another problem in reliability analysis is that future covariates of engineering assets are generally unavailable. In existing practices for multi-step reliability analysis, historical covariates were used to estimate the future covariates. Covariates of engineering assets, however, are often subject to substantial fluctuation due to the influence of both engineering degradation and changes in environmental settings. The commonly used covariate extrapolation methods thus would not be suitable because of the error accumulation and uncertainty propagation. To overcome this difficulty, instead of directly extrapolating covariate values, projection of covariate states is conducted in this research. The estimated covariate states and unknown covariate values in future running steps of assets constitute an incomplete covariate set which is then analysed by the extended NNHMs. A new assessment function is also proposed to evaluate risks of underestimated and overestimated reliability analysis results. A case study using field data from a paper and pulp mill has been conducted and it demonstrates that this new multi-step reliability analysis procedure is able to generate more accurate analysis results.

Data analysis with artificial immune systems, cluster analysis and kohonen networks: some comparisons.

Neal M J Timmis J and Hunt J. Data analysis with artificial immune systems, cluster analysis and kohonen networks: some comparisons. In Proceedings of IEEE international conference of systems, man and cybernetics, pages 922-927, Tokyo, 1999. IEEE.

An artificial immune system for data analysis

Timmis J and Neal M J. An artificial immune system for data analysis. In Proceedings of 3rd international workshop on information processing in cells and tissues (IPCAT), Indianapolis, U.S.A., 1999.

A resource limited artificial immune system for data analysis.

Timmis J and Neal M J. A resource limited artificial immune system for data analysis. In Proceedings of ES2000 - Research and Development of Intelligent Systems, pages 19-32, Cambrige, U.K., 2000. Springer.

Implementation of intelligent data acquisition system for ITER fast controllers using RIO devices.

A basic requirement of the data acquisition systems used in long pulse fusion experiments is the real time physical events detection in signals. Developing such applications is usually a complex task, so it is necessary to develop a set of hardware and software tools that simplify their implementation. This type of applications can be implemented in ITER using fast controllers. ITER is standardizing the architectures to be used for fast controller implementation. Until now the standards chosen are PXIe architectures (based on PCIe) for the hardware and EPICS middleware for the software. This work presents the methodology for implementing data acquisition and pre-processing using FPGA-based DAQ cards and how to integrate these in fast controllers using EPICS.

A semantic paradigm for intelligent data access

An implementation of Sem-ODB—a database management system based on the Semantic Binary Model is presented. A metaschema of Sem-ODB database as well as the top-level architecture of the database engine is defined. A new benchmarking technique is proposed which allows databases built on different database models to compete fairly. This technique is applied to show that Sem-ODB has excellent efficiency comparing to a relational database on a certain class of database applications. A new semantic benchmark is designed which allows evaluation of the performance of the features characteristic of semantic database applications. An application used in the benchmark represents a class of problems requiring databases with sparse data, complex inheritances and many-to-many relations. Such databases can be naturally accommodated by semantic model. A fixed predefined implementation is not enforced allowing the database designer to choose the most efficient structures available in the DBMS tested. The results of the benchmark are analyzed. ^ A new high-level querying model for semantic databases is defined. It is proven adequate to serve as an efficient native semantic database interface, and has several advantages over the existing interfaces. It is optimizable and parallelizable, supports the definition of semantic userviews and the interoperability of semantic databases with other data sources such as World Wide Web, relational, and object-oriented databases. The query is structured as a semantic database schema graph with interlinking conditionals. The query result is a mini-database, accessible in the same way as the original database. The paradigm supports and utilizes the rich semantics and inherent ergonomics of semantic databases. ^ The analysis and high-level design of a system that exploits the superiority of the Semantic Database Model to other data models in expressive power and ease of use to allow uniform access to heterogeneous data sources such as semantic databases, relational databases, web sites, ASCII files, and others via a common query interface is presented. The Sem-ODB engine is used to control all the data sources combined under a unified semantic schema. A particular application of the system to provide an ODBC interface to the WWW as a data source is discussed. ^

Sustainable subdivisions – ventilation data analysis

This project, as part of a broader Sustainable Sub-divisions research agenda, addresses the role of natural ventilation in reducing the use of energy required to cool dwellings

Safeguarding Rural Australia : Introduction, Framework and Background to Secondary Data Analysis

This report provides an introduction to our analyses of secondary data with respect to violent acts and incidents relating to males living in rural settings in Australia. It clarifies important aspects of our overall approach primarily by concentrating on three elements that required early scoping and resolution. Firstly, a wide and inclusive view of violence which encompasses measures of violent acts and incidents and also data identifying risk taking behaviour and the consequences of violence is outlined and justified. Secondly, the classification used to make comparisons between the city and the bush together with associated caveats is outlined. The third element discussed is in relation to national injury data. Additional commentary resulting from exploration, examination and analyses of secondary data is published online in five subsequent reports in this series.

Eco-structure data forms : classification of data analysis using perceived design affordances for musical outcomes

This paper explores a method of comparative analysis and classification of data through perceived design affordances. Included is discussion about the musical potential of data forms that are derived through eco-structural analysis of musical features inherent in audio recordings of natural sounds. A system of classification of these forms is proposed based on their structural contours. The classifications include four primitive types; steady, iterative, unstable and impulse. The classification extends previous taxonomies used to describe the gestural morphology of sound. The methods presented are used to provide compositional support for eco-structuralism.