An exploration of the equivalent weights particle filter

Particle filters are fully non-linear data assimilation techniques that aim to represent the probability distribution of the model state given the observations (the posterior) by a number of particles. In high-dimensional geophysical applications the number of particles required by the sequential importance resampling (SIR) particle filter in order to capture the high probability region of the posterior, is too large to make them usable. However particle filters can be formulated using proposal densities, which gives greater freedom in how particles are sampled and allows for a much smaller number of particles. Here a particle filter is presented which uses the proposal density to ensure that all particles end up in the high probability region of the posterior probability density function. This gives rise to the possibility of non-linear data assimilation in large dimensional systems. The particle filter formulation is compared to the optimal proposal density particle filter and the implicit particle filter, both of which also utilise a proposal density. We show that when observations are available every time step, both schemes will be degenerate when the number of independent observations is large, unlike the new scheme. The sensitivity of the new scheme to its parameter values is explored theoretically and demonstrated using the Lorenz (1963) model.

A Variance-Minimizing Filter for Large-Scale Applications

A truly variance-minimizing filter is introduced and its per for mance is demonstrated with the Korteweg– DeV ries (KdV) equation and with a multilayer quasigeostrophic model of the ocean area around South Africa. It is recalled that Kalman-like filters are not variance minimizing for nonlinear model dynamics and that four - dimensional variational data assimilation (4DV AR)-like methods relying on per fect model dynamics have dif- ficulty with providing error estimates. The new method does not have these drawbacks. In fact, it combines advantages from both methods in that it does provide error estimates while automatically having balanced states after analysis, without extra computations. It is based on ensemble or Monte Carlo integrations to simulate the probability density of the model evolution. When obser vations are available, the so-called importance resampling algorithm is applied. From Bayes’ s theorem it follows that each ensemble member receives a new weight dependent on its ‘ ‘distance’ ’ t o the obser vations. Because the weights are strongly var ying, a resampling of the ensemble is necessar y. This resampling is done such that members with high weights are duplicated according to their weights, while low-weight members are largely ignored. In passing, it is noted that data assimilation is not an inverse problem by nature, although it can be for mulated that way . Also, it is shown that the posterior variance can be larger than the prior if the usual Gaussian framework is set aside. However , i n the examples presented here, the entropy of the probability densities is decreasing. The application to the ocean area around South Africa, gover ned by strongly nonlinear dynamics, shows that the method is working satisfactorily . The strong and weak points of the method are discussed and possible improvements are proposed.

Modelos duplo sigmoidais para o crescimento de frutos do cafeeiro

Coffee is one of the main products of Brazilian agriculture, the country is currently the largest producer and exporter. Knowing the growth pattern of a fruit can assist in the development of culture indicating for example, the times of increased fruit weight and its optimum harvest, essential to improve the management and quality of coffee. Some authors indicate that the growth curve of the coffee fruit has a double sigmoid shape. However, it consists of just a visual observation without exploring the use of regression models. The aims of this study were: i) determine if the growth pattern of the coffee fruit is really double sigmoidal; ii) to propose a new approach in weighted importance re-sampling to estimate the parameters of regression models and select the most suitable double sigmoidal model to describe the growth of coffee fruits; iii) to study the spatial distribution effect of the crop in the growth curve of coffee fruits. In the first article the aim was determine if the growth pattern of the coffee fruit is really double sigmoidal. The models double Gompertz and double Logistic showed significantly superior fit to models of simple sigmoid confirming that the standard of coffee fruits growth is really double sigmoidal. In the second article we propose to consider an approximation of the likelihood as the candidate distribution of the weighted importance resampling, aiming to facilitate the process of obtaining samples of marginal distributions of each parameter. This technique was effective since it provided parameters with practical interpretation and low computational effort, therefore, it can be used to estimate parameters of double sigmoidal growth curves. The nonlinear model double Logistic was the most appropriate to describe the growth curve of coffee fruits. In the third article aimed to verify the influence of different planting alignments and sun exposure faces in the fruits growth curve. A difference between the growth rates in the two stages of fruit development was identified, regardless the side. Although it has been proven differences in productivity and quality of coffee, there was no difference between the growth curves in the different planting alignments herein studied.

Developmental Rate Of Immatures Of Two Fly Species Of Forensic Importance: Sarcophaga (liopygia) Ruficornis And Microcerella Halli (diptera: Sarcophagidae).

Since insect species are poikilothermic organisms, they generally exhibit different growth patterns depending on the temperature at which they develop. This factor is important in forensic entomology, especially for estimating postmortem interval (PMI) when it is based on the developmental time of the insects reared in decomposing bodies. This study aimed to estimate the rates of development, viability, and survival of immatures of Sarcophaga (Liopygia) ruficornis (Fabricius 1794) and Microcerella halli (Engel 1931) (Diptera: Sarcophagidae) reared in different temperatures: 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, and 35 ± 1 °C. Bovine raw ground meat was offered as food for all experimental groups, each consisting of four replicates, in the proportion of 2 g/larva. To measure the evolution of growth, ten specimens of each group were randomly chosen and weighed every 12 h, from initial feeding larva to pupae, and then discarded. Considering the records of weight gain, survival rates, and stability of growth rates, the range of optimum temperature for the development of S. (L.) ruficornis is between 20 and 35 °C, and that of M. halli is between 20 and 25 °C. For both species, the longest times of development were in the lowest temperatures. The survival rate at extreme temperatures (10 and 35 °C) was lower in both species. Biological data such as the ones obtained in this study are of great importance to achieve a more accurate estimate of the PMI.

Absorption of metals and characterization of chemical elements present in three species of Gracilaria (Gracilariaceae) Greville: a genus of economical importance

Gracilaria Greville is a genus of seaweed that is economically explored by the cosmetic, pharmaceutical and food industries. One of the biggest problems associated with growing Gracilaria is the discharge of heavy metals into the marine environment. The absorption of heavy metals was investigated with the macroalga Gracilaria tenuistipitata Zhang et Xia, cultivated in a medium containing copper (Cu) and cadmium (Cd). In biological samples, EC50 concentrations of 1 ppm for cadmium and 0.95 ppm for copper were used. These concentrations were based on seaweed growth curves obtained over a period of six days in previous studies. ICP-AES was used to determine the amount of metal that seaweeds absorbed during this period. G. tenuistipitata was able to bioaccumulate both metals, about 17% of copper and 9% of cadmium. Basal natural levels of Cu were found in control seaweeds and in G. tenuistipitata exposed to Cd. In addition, the repertoire of other important chemical elements, as well as their concentrations, was determined for G. tenuistipitata and two other important seaweeds, G. birdiae Plastino & Oliveira and G. domingensis (Kützing) Sonder ex Dickie, collected in natural environments on the Brazilian shore.

Metabolic osteopathy in celiac disease: importance of a gluten-free diet

Reduced bone mineral density (BMD) is frequently found in individuals with untreated celiac disease (CD), possibly due to calcium and vitamin D malabsorption, release of pro-inflammatory cytokines, and misbalanced bone remodeling. A gluten-free diet (GFD) promotes a rapid increase in BMD that leads to complete recovery of bone mineralization in children. Children may attain normal peak bone mass if the diagnosis is made and treatment is given before puberty, thereby preventing osteoporosis in later life. A GFD improves, but rarely normalizes, BMD in patients diagnosed with CD in adulthood. In some cases, nutritional supplementation may be necessary. More information on therapeutic alternatives is needed

Importance of considering a material micro-failure criterion in the numerical modelling of the shot peening process applied to parabolic leaf springs

Shot peening is a cold-working mechanical process in which a shot stream is propelled against a component surface. Its purpose is to introduce compressive residual stresses on component surfaces for increasing the fatigue resistance. This process is widely applied in springs due to the cyclical loads requirements. This paper presents a numerical modelling of shot peening process using the finite element method. The results are compared with experimental measurements of the residual stresses, obtained by the X-rays diffraction technique, in leaf springs submitted to this process. Furthermore, the results are compared with empirical and numerical correlations developed by other authors.

The Importance of Protein-Protein Interactions on the pH-Induced Conformational Changes of Bovine Serum Albumin: A Small-Angle X-Ray Scattering Study

The combined effects of concentration and pH on the conformational states of bovine serum albumin (BSA) are investigated by small-angle x-ray scattering. Serum albumins, at physiological conditions, are found at concentrations of similar to 35-45 mg/mL (42 mg/mL in the case of humans). In this work, BSA at three different concentrations (10, 25, and 50 mg/mL) and pH values (2.0-9.0) have been studied. Data were analyzed by means of the Global Fitting procedure, with the protein form factor calculated from human serum albumin (HSA) crystallographic structure and the interference function described, considering repulsive and attractive interaction potentials within a random phase approximation. Small-angle x-ray scattering data show that BSA maintains its native state from pH 4.0 up to 9.0 at all investigated concentrations. A pH-dependence of the absolute net protein charge is shown and the charge number per BSA is quantified to 10(2), 8(l), 13(2), 20(2), and 26(2) for pH values 4.0, 5.4, 7.0, 8.0, and 9.0, respectively. The attractive potential diminishes as BSA concentration increases. The coexistence of monomers and dimers is observed at 50 mg/mL and pH 5.4, near the BSA isoelectric point. Samples at pH 2.0 show a different behavior, because BSA overall shape changes as a function of concentration. At 10 mg/mL, BSA is partially unfolded and a strong repulsive protein-protein interaction occurs due to the high amount of exposed charge. At 25 and 50 mg/mL, BSA undergoes some refolding, which likely results in a molten-globule state. This work concludes by confirming that the protein concentration plays an important role on the pH-unfolded BSA state, due to a delicate compromise between interaction forces and crowding effects.

Importance of granular structure in the initial conditions for the elliptic flow

We show the effects of the granular structure of the initial conditions of a hydrodynamic description of high-energy nucleus-nucleus collisions on some observables, especially on the elliptic-flow parameter upsilon(2). Such a structure enhances production of isotropically distributed high-p(T) particles, making upsilon(2) smaller there. Also, it reduces upsilon(2) in the forward and backward regions where the global matter density is smaller and, therefore, where such effects become more efficacious.

Thermo-solvatochromism in binary mixtures of water and ionic liquids: on the relative importance of solvophobic interactions

The thermo-solvatochromism of 2,6-dibromo-4-[(E)-2-(1-methylpyridinium-4-yl)ethenyl] phenolate, MePMBr(2), has been studied in mixtures of water, W, with ionic liquids, ILs, in the temperature range of 10 to 60 degrees C, where feasible. The objectives of the study were to test the applicability of a recently introduced solvation model, and to assess the relative importance of solute-solvent solvophobic interactions. The ILs were 1-allyl-3-alkylimidazolium chlorides, where the alkyl groups are methyl, 1-butyl, and 1-hexyl, respectively. The equilibrium constants for the interaction of W and the ILs were calculated from density data; they were found to be linearly dependent on N(C), the number of carbon atoms of the alkyl group; van't Hoff equation (log K versus 1/T) applied satisfactorily. Plots of the empirical solvent polarities, E(T) (MePMBr(2)) in kcal mol(-1), versus the mole fraction of water in the binary mixture, chi(w), showed non-linear, i.e., non-ideal behavior. The dependence of E(T) (MePMBr(2)) on chi(w), has been conveniently quantified in terms of solvation by W, IL, and the ""complex"" solvent IL-W. The non-ideal behavior is due to preferential solvation by the IL and, more efficiently, by IL-W. The deviation from linearity increases as a function of increasing N(C) of the IL, and is stronger than that observed for solvation of MePMBr(2) by aqueous 1-propanol, a solvent whose lipophilicity is 12.8 to 52.1 times larger than those of the ILs investigated. The dependence on N(C) is attributed to solute-solvent solvophobic interactions, whose relative contribution to solvation are presumably greater than that in mixtures of water and 1-propanol.

Adjustment of Mineral Elements in the Culture Medium for the Micropropagation of Three Vriesea Bromeliads from the Brazilian Atlantic Forest: The Importance of Calcium

Many different species of Bromeliaceae are endangered and their conservation requires specific knowledge of their growth habits and propagation. In vitro culture of bromeliads is an important method for efficient clonal propagation and ill vitro seed g,germination can be used to maintain genetic variability. The present work aims to evaluate the in vitro growth and nutrient concentration in leaves of the epiphyte bromeliads Vriesea friburguensis Mez, Vriesea hieroglyphica (Carriere) E. Morren, and Vriesea unilateralis Mez, which exhibit slow rates of growth in vivo and in vitro. Initially, we compared the endogenous mineral composition of bromeliad plantlets grown in half-strength Murashige and Skoog (MS) medium and the mineral composition considered adequate in the literature. This approach suggested that calcium (Ca) is a critical nutrient and this was considered for new media formulation. Three new culture media were defined in which the main changes to half-strength MS medium were an increase in Ca, magnesium, sulfur, copper, and chloride and a decrease in iron, maintaining the nitrate: ammonium rate at approximate to 2:1. The main difference among the three new media formulated was Ca concentration, which varied from 1.5 mm in half-strength MS to 3.0, 6.0, and 12 mm in M2, M3, and M4 media, respectively. Consistently, all three species exhibited significantly higher fresh and dry weight on M4, the newly defined medium with the highest level of Ca (12 mm). Leaf nitrogen, potassium, zinc, magnesium and boron concentrations increased as Ca concentration in the medium increased from 1.5 to 12 mm.

The importance of scientific literacy in fostering education for sustainability: Theoretical considerations and preliminary findings from a Brazilian experience

Scientific literacy can be considered as a new demand of post-industrial society. It seems necessary in order to foster education for sustainability throughout students` academic careers. Universities striving to teach sustainability are being challenged to integrate a holistic perspective into a traditional undergraduate curriculum, which aims at specialization. This new integrative, inter- and transdisciplinary epistemological approach is necessary to cultivate autonomous citizenship, i.e., that each citizen be prepared to understand and participate in discussions about the complex contemporary issues posed by post-industrial society. This paper presents an epistemological framework to show the role of scientific literacy in fostering education for sustainability. We present a set of 26 collaborative concept maps (CCmaps) in order to illustrate an instance of theory becoming practice. During a required course for first-year undergraduate students (ACH 0011, Natural Sciences), climate change was presented and discussed in broad perspective by using CCmaps. We present students` CCmaps to show how they use concepts from quantitative and literacy disciplines to deal with the challenges posed by the need of achieving a sustainable development. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

THE IMPORTANCE OF DISAGREEING: CONTRARIANS AND EXTREMISM IN THE CODA MODEL

In this paper, we study the effects of introducing contrarians in a model of Opinion Dynamics where the agents have internal continuous opinions, but exchange information only about a binary choice that is a function of their continuous opinion, the CODA model. We observe that the hung election scenario that arises when contrarians are introduced in discrete opinion models still happens. However, it is weaker and it should not be expected in every election. Finally, we also show that the introduction of contrarians make the tendency towards extremism of the original model weaker, indicating that the existence of agents that prefer to disagree might be an important aspect and help society to diminish extremist opinions.

The importance of the industrialization of Brazilian shale when faced with the world energy scenario

This article discusses the importance of the industrialization of Brazilian shale based on factors such as: security of the national energy system security, global oil geopoliticsl, resources available, production costs, oil prices, environmental impacts and the national oil reserves. The study shows that the industrialization of shale always arises when issues such as peak oil or its geopolitics appear as factors that raise the price of oil to unrealistic levels. The article concludes that in the Brazilian case, shale oil may be classified as a strategic resource, economically viable, currently in development by the success of the retorting technology for extraction of shale oil and the price of crude oil. The article presents the conclusion that shale may be the driving factor for the formation of a technology park in Sao Mateus do Sul, due to the city`s economic dependence on Petrosix.

The importance of wet-powder dynamic mechanical properties in understanding granulation

Granule impact deformation has long been recognised as important in determining whether or not two colliding granules will coalesce. Work in the last 10 years has highlighted the fact that viscous effects are significant in granulation. The relative strengths of different formulations can vary with strain rate. Therefore, traditional strength measurements made at pseudo-static conditions give no indication, even qualitatively, of how materials will behave at high strain rates, and hence are actually misleading when used to model granule coalescence. This means that new standard methods need to be developed for determining the strain rates encountered by granules inside industrial equipment and also for measuring the mechanical properties of granules at these strain rates. The constitutive equations used in theoretical models of granule coalescence also need to be extended to include strain-rate dependent components.