Priority threat management of invasive animals to protect biodiversity under climate change

Climate change is a major threat to global biodiversity, and its impacts can act synergistically to heighten the severity of other threats. Most research on projecting species range shifts under climate change has not been translated to informing priority management strategies on the ground. We develop a prioritization framework to assess strategies for managing threats to biodiversity under climate change and apply it to the management of invasive animal species across one-sixth of the Australian continent, the Lake Eyre Basin. We collected information from key stakeholders and experts on the impacts of invasive animals on 148 of the region's most threatened species and 11 potential strategies. Assisted by models of current distributions of threatened species and their projected distributions, experts estimated the cost, feasibility, and potential benefits of each strategy for improving the persistence of threatened species with and without climate change. We discover that the relative cost-effectiveness of invasive animal control strategies is robust to climate change, with the management of feral pigs being the highest priority for conserving threatened species overall. Complementary sets of strategies to protect as many threatened species as possible under limited budgets change when climate change is considered, with additional strategies required to avoid impending extinctions from the region. Overall, we find that the ranking of strategies by cost-effectiveness was relatively unaffected by including climate change into decision-making, even though the benefits of the strategies were lower. Future climate conditions and impacts on range shifts become most important to consider when designing comprehensive management plans for the control of invasive animals under limited budgets to maximize the number of threatened species that can be protected.

Climate and carbon cycle changes from 1850 to 2100 in MPI-ESM simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5

The new Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) is used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) in a series of climate change experiments for either idealized CO2-only forcing or forcings based on observations and the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The paper gives an overview of the model configurations, experiments related forcings, and initialization procedures and presents results for the simulated changes in climate and carbon cycle. It is found that the climate feedback depends on the global warming and possibly the forcing history. The global warming from climatological 1850 conditions to 2080–2100 ranges from 1.5°C under the RCP2.6 scenario to 4.4°C under the RCP8.5 scenario. Over this range, the patterns of temperature and precipitation change are nearly independent of the global warming. The model shows a tendency to reduce the ocean heat uptake efficiency toward a warmer climate, and hence acceleration in warming in the later years. The precipitation sensitivity can be as high as 2.5% K−1 if the CO2 concentration is constant, or as small as 1.6% K−1, if the CO2 concentration is increasing. The oceanic uptake of anthropogenic carbon increases over time in all scenarios, being smallest in the experiment forced by RCP2.6 and largest in that for RCP8.5. The land also serves as a net carbon sink in all scenarios, predominantly in boreal regions. The strong tropical carbon sources found in the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 experiments are almost absent in the RCP4.5 experiment, which can be explained by reforestation in the RCP4.5 scenario.

Veneer Grade Analysis of Early to Mid-rotation Plantation Eucalyptus Species in Australia

Processing Australian hardwood plantations into rotary veneer can produce more acceptable marketable product recoveries compared to traditional processing techniques (e.g. sawmilling). Veneers resulting from processing trials from six commercially important Australian hardwood species were dominated by D-grade veneer. Defects such as encased knots, gum pockets, gum veins, surface roughness, splits, bark pockets, and decay impacted the final assigned grade. Four grading scenarios were adopted. The first included a change to the grade limitations for gum pockets and gum veins, while the second investigated the potential impact of effective pruning on grade recovery. Although both scenarios individually had a positive impact on achieving higher face grade veneer qualities, the third and fourth scenarios, which combined both, had a substantial impact, with relative veneer values increasing up to 18.2% using conservative calculations (scenario three) or up to 22.6% (scenario four) where some of the upgraded veneers were further upgraded to A-grade, which attracts superior value. The total change in veneer value was found to depend on the average billet diameter unless defects other than those relating to the scenarios (gum or knots) restricted the benefit of pruning and gum upgrading. This was the case for species prone to high levels of growth stress and related defects.

Modelling the future biogeography of North Atlantic zooplankton communities in response to climate change

Advances in habitat and climate modelling allow us to reduce uncertainties of climate change impacts on species distribution. We evaluated the impacts of future climate change on community structure, diversity, distribution and phenology of 14 copepod species in the North Atlantic. We developed and validated habitat models for key zooplankton species using continuous plankton recorder (CPR) survey data collected at mid latitudes of the North Atlantic. Generalized additive models (GAMs) were applied to relate the occurrence of species to environmental variables. Models were projected to future (2080–2099) environmental conditions using coupled hydroclimatix–biogeochemical models under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B climate scenario, and compared to present (2001–2020) conditions. Our projections indicated that the copepod community is expected to respond substantially to climate change: a mean poleward latitudinal shift of 8.7 km per decade for the overall community with an important species range variation (–15 to 18 km per decade); the species seasonal peak is expected to occur 12–13 d earlier for Calanus finmarchicus and C. hyperboreus; and important changes in community structure are also expected (high species turnover of 43–79% south of the Oceanic Polar Front). The impacts of the change expected by the end of the century under IPCC global warming scenarios on copepods highlight poleward shifts, earlier seasonal peak and changes in biodiversity spatial patterns that might lead to alterations of the future North Atlantic pelagic ecosystem. Our model and projections are supported by a temporal validation undertaken using the North Atlantic climate regime shift that occurred in the 1980s: the habitat model built in the cold period (1970–1986) has been validated in the warm period (1987–2004).

Extreme precipitation and climate change: the potential impacts on flooding

Recent extreme precipitation events have caused widespread flooding to the UK. The prediction of the intensity of such events in a warmer climate is important for adaption strategies against future events. This study highlights the importance of using high-resolution models to predict these events. Using a high-resolution GCM it is shown that extreme precipitation events are predicted to become more frequent under the IPCC A1B warming scenario. It is also shown that current forecast models have difficulty in predicting the location, timing and intensity of small scale precipitation in areas with significant orography.

European storminess and associated circulation weather types: future changes deduced from a multi-model ensemble of GCM simulations

A range of possible changes in the frequency and characteristics of European wind storms under future climate conditions was investigated on the basis of a multi-model ensemble of 9 coupled global climate model (GCM) simulations for the 20th and 21st centuries following the IPCC SRES A1B scenario. A multi-model approach allowed an estimation of the (un)certainties of the climate change signals. General changes in large-scale atmospheric flow were analysed, the occurrence of wind storms was quantified, and atmospheric features associated with wind storm events were considered. Identified storm days were investigated according to atmospheric circulation, associated pressure patterns, cyclone tracks and wind speed patterns. Validation against reanalysis data revealed that the GCMs are in general capable of realistically reproducing characteristics of European circulation weather types (CWTs) and wind storms. Results are given with respect to frequency of occurrence, storm-associated flow conditions, cyclone tracks and specific wind speed patterns. Under anthropogenic climate change conditions (SRES A1B scenario), increased frequency of westerly flow during winter is detected over the central European investigation area. In the ensemble mean, the number of detected wind storm days increases between 19 and 33% for 2 different measures of storminess, only 1 GCM revealed less storm days. The increased number of storm days detected in most models is disproportionately high compared to the related CWT changes. The mean intensity of cyclones associated with storm days in the ensemble mean increases by about 10 (±10)% in the Eastern Atlantic, near the British Isles and in the North Sea. Accordingly, wind speeds associated with storm events increase significantly by about 5 (±5)% over large parts of central Europe, mainly on days with westerly flow. The basic conclusions of this work remain valid if different ensemble contructions are considered, leaving out an outlier model or including multiple runs of one particular model.

The effect of elevated CO2 and increased temperature on in vitro fertilization success and initial embryonic development of single male:female crosses of broad-cast spawning corals at mid- and high-latitude locations

The impact of global climate change on coral reefs is expected to be most profound at the sea surface, where fertilization and embryonic development of broadcast-spawning corals takes place. We examined the effect of increased temperature and elevated CO2 levels on the in vitro fertilization success and initial embryonic development of broadcast-spawning corals using a single male:female cross of three different species from mid- and high-latitude locations: Lyudao, Taiwan (22° N) and Kochi, Japan (32° N). Eggs were fertilized under ambient conditions (27 °C and 500 µatm CO2) and under conditions predicted for 2100 (IPCC worst case scenario, 31 °C and 1000 µatm CO2). Fertilization success, abnormal development and early developmental success were determined for each sample. Increased temperature had a more profound influence than elevated CO2. In most cases, near-future warming caused a significant drop in early developmental success as a result of decreased fertilization success and/or increased abnormal development. The embryonic development of the male:female cross of A. hyacinthus from the high-latitude location was more sensitive to the increased temperature (+4 °C) than the male:female cross of A. hyacinthus from the mid-latitude location. The response to the elevated CO2 level was small and highly variable, ranging from positive to negative responses. These results suggest that global warming is a more significant and universal stressor than ocean acidification on the early embryonic development of corals from mid- and high-latitude locations.

Surface Elevation Change Processes in the Snohomish River Estuary, Washington

Estuaries provide crucial ecosystem functions and contain significant socio-economic value. Within Washington State, estuaries supply rearing habitat for juvenile salmon during their transition period from freshwater to open sea. In order to properly manage wetland resources and restore salmon habitat, the mechanisms through which estuaries evolve and adapt to pressures from climate change, most notably eustatic sea level rise, must be understood. Estuaries maintain elevation relative to sea level rise through vertical accretion of sediment. This report investigates the processes that contribute to local surface elevation change in the Snohomish Estuary, conveys preliminary surface elevation change results from RTK GPS monitoring, and describes how surface elevation change will be monitored with a network of RSET-MH’s. Part of the tidal wetlands within the Snohomish River Estuary were converted for agricultural and industrial purposes in the 1800’s, which resulted in subsidence of organic soils and loss of habitat. The Tulalip Tribes, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Northwest Indian Fisheries Commission (NWIFC), and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) are conducting a large-scale restoration project to improve ecosystem health and restore juvenile salmon habitat. A study by Crooks et al. (2014) used 210Pb and carbon densities within sediment cores to estimate wetland re-building capacities, sediment accretion rates, and carbon sequestration potential within the Snohomish Estuary. This report uses the aforementioned study in combination with research on crustal movement, tidal patterns, sediment supply, and sea level rise predictions in the Puget Sound to project how surface elevation will change in the Snohomish Estuary with respect to sea level rise. Anthropogenic modification of the floodplain has reduced the quantity of vegetation and functional connectivity within the Snohomish Estuary. There have been losses up to 99% in vegetation coverage from historic extents within the estuary in both freshwater and mesohaline environments. Hydrographic monitoring conducted by NOAA and the Tulalip Tribe shows that 85% of the historic wetland area is not connected to the main stem of the Snohomish (Jason Hall 2014, unpublished data, NOAA). As vegetation colonization and functional connectivity of the floodplains of the Snohomish estuary is re-established through passive and active restoration, sediment transport and accretion is expected to increase. Under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) “medium- probability” scenario sea level is projected to rise at a rate of 4.28 mm/year in the Puget Sound. Sea level rise in the Snohomish Estuary will be exacerbated from crustal deformation from subsidence and post-glacial rebound, which are measured to be -1.4 mm/year and -0.02 mm/year, respectively. Sediment accretion rates calculated by Crooks et al. (2014) and RTK GPS monitoring of surface elevation change of the Marysville Mitigation site from 2011-2014 measured vertical accretion rates that range from -48-19 mm/year and have high spatial variability. Sediment supply is estimated at 490 thousand tons/year, which may be an under-estimate because of the exclusion of tidal transport in this value. The higher rates of sediment accretion measured in the Snohomish Estuary suggest that the Snohomish will likely match or exceed the pace of sea level rise under “medium-probability” projections. The network of RSET-MH instruments will track surface elevation change within the estuary, and provide a more robust dataset on rates of surface elevation change to quantify how vertical accretion and subsidence are contributing to surface elevation change on a landscape scale.

Impact of climate change on the potential distribution of Mediterranean pines

The impact of climate change on the potential distribution of four Mediterranean pine species – Pinus brutia Ten., Pinus halepensis Mill., Pinus pinaster Aiton, and Pinus pinea L. – was studied by the Climate Envelope Model (CEM) to examine whether these species are suitable for the use as ornamental plants without frost protection in the Carpathian Basin. The model was supported by EUFORGEN digital area database (distribution maps), ESRI ArcGIS 10 software’s Spatial Analyst module (modeling environment), PAST (calibration of the model with statistical method), and REMO regional climate model (climatic data). The climate data were available in a 25 km resolution grid for the reference period (1961–1990) and two future periods (2011–2040, 2041–2070). The regional climate model was based on the IPCC SRES A1B scenario. While the potential distribution of P. brutia was not predicted to expand remarkably, an explicit shift of the distribution of the other three species was shown. Northwestern African distribution segments seem to become abandoned in the future. Current distribution of P. brutia may be highly endangered by the climate change. P. halepensis in the southern part and P. pinaster in the western part of the Carpathian Basin may find suitable climatic conditions in the period of 2041–2070.

Klímaváltozás és az európai lepkeszúnyogok. Az areamodellezés módszertani kérdései

The future northward expansion of the arthropod vectors of leishmaniasis caused by climate change seems to be essential veterinary and medical problem. Our aim was to build and evaluate a Climate Envelope Model (CEM) to assess the potential effects of climate change on five European sandfly species. The studied species – Phlebotomus ariasi Tonn., P. neglectus Tonn., P. papatasi Scop., P. perfiliewi Parrot, P. perniciosus Newst., P. sergenti Parrot, P. similis Perfiliev, P. tobbi Adler, Theodor et Lourie – are important vectors of the parasite Leishmania infantum or other Leishmania species. The projections were based on REMO regional climate model with European domain. The climate data were available in a 25 km resolution grid for the reference period (1961-90) and two future periods (2011-40, 2041-70). The regional climate model was based on the IPCC SRES A1B scenario. Three types of climatic parameters were used for every month (averaged in the 30-years periods). The model was supported by VBORNET digital area database (distribution maps), ESRI ArcGIS 10 software’s Spatial Analyst module (modeling environment), PAST (calibration of the model with statistical method). Iterative model evaluation was done by summarizing two types of model errors based on an aggregated distribution. The results show that the best model results can be achieved by leaving 5-5 percentiles from the two extrema of the mean temperature, 2-2 percentiles from the two extrema of the minimum temperature, 0 percentile from the minimum of and 8 percentiles from the maximum of the precipitation.

Modeling the future distribution of Mediterranean Pinus species

The potential future distribution of four Mediterranean pines was aimed to be modeled supported by EUFORGEN digital area database (distribution maps), ESRI ArcGIS 10 software’s Spatial Analyst module (modeling environment), PAST (calibration of the model with statistical method), and REMO regional climate model (climatic data). The studied species were Pinus brutia, Pinus halepensis, Pinus pinaster, and Pinus pinea. The climate data were available in a 25 km resolution grid for the reference period (1961-90) and two future periods (2011-40, 2041-70). The climate model was based on the IPCC SRES A1B scenario. The model results show explicit shift of the distributions to the north in case of three of the four studied species. The future (2041-70) climate of Western Hungary seems to be suitable for Pinus pinaster.

Seawater carbonate chemistry, length, mass and otholith development of spiny damselfish Acanthochromis polyacanthus during experiments, 2011

Determining which marine species are sensitive to elevated CO2 and reduced pH, and which species tolerate these changes, is critical for predicting the impacts of ocean acidification on marine biodiversity and ecosystem function. Although adult fish are thought to be relatively tolerant to higher levels of environmental CO2, very little is known about the sensitivity of juvenile stages, which are usually much more vulnerable to environmental change. We tested the effects of elevated environmental CO2 on the growth, survival, skeletal development and otolith (ear bone) calcification of a common coral reef fish, the spiny damselfish Acanthochromis polyacanthus. Newly hatched juveniles were reared for 3 wk at 4 different levels of PCO2(seawater) spanning concentrations already experienced in near-reef waters (450 µatm CO2) to those predicted to occur over the next 50 to 100 yr in the IPCC A2 emission scenario (600, 725, 850 µatm CO2). Elevated PCO2 had no effect on juvenile growth or survival. Similarly, there was no consistent variation in the size of 29 different skeletal elements that could be attributed to CO2 treatments. Finally, otolith size, shape and symmetry (between left and right side of the body) were not affected by exposure to elevated PCO2, despite the fact that otoliths are composed of aragonite. This is the first comprehensive assessment of the likely effects of ocean acidification on the early life history development of a marine fish. Our results suggest that juvenile A. polyacanthus are tolerant of moderate increases in environmental CO2 and that further acidification of the ocean will not, in isolation, have a significant effect on the early life history development of this species, and perhaps other tropical reef fishes

Mudança do clima e os impactos na agricultura familiar no Norte e Nordeste do Brasil.

O ponto de partida deste estudo foi a consideração de cenários futuros da mudança do clima e as respectivas incertezas. As projeções globais disponíveis no Quinto Relatório de Avaliação do Painel Intergovernamental sobre Mudanças Climáticas (IPCC) - AR5 foram apresentadas e comparadas com cenários regionais (downscalling), desenvolvidos pelo Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE). O foco deu-se em dois cenários principais do IPCC (RCP 4.5 e RCP 8.5) e também em dois principais modelos globais (MIROC e Hadley Centre) para os períodos de 2011-2040 e 2041-2070. O objetivo foi identificar as principais tendências em termos de mudanças na temperatura e na precipitação para as regiões Norte e Nordeste do Brasil ? mais especificamente nos biomas Amazônia, Semiárido e Cerrado ? escopo do estudo.

New climate scenario framework implementation in the GCAM integrated assessment model

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Regional and urban air quality modelling under a climate change scenario

The better understanding of the interactions between climate change and air quality is an emerging priority for research and policy. Climate change will bring changes in the climate system, which will affect the concentration and dispersion of air pollutants. The main objective of the current study is to assess the impacts of climate change on air quality in 2050 over Portugal and Porto urban area. First, an evaluation and characterization of the air quality over mainland Portugal was performed for the period between 2002 and 2012. The results show that NO2, PM10 and O3 are the critical pollutants in Portugal. Also, the influence of meteorology on O3, NO2 and PM10 levels was investigate in the national main urban areas (Porto and Lisboa) and was verified that O3 has a statistically significant relationship with temperature in most of the components. The results also indicate that emission control strategies are primary regulators for NO2 and PM10 levels. After, understanding the national air quality problems and the influence that meteorology had in the historical air quality levels, the air quality modelling system WRF-CAMx was tested and the required inputs for the simulations were prepared to fulfil the main goal of this work. For the required air quality modelling inputs, an Emission Projections under RCP scenarios (EmiPro-RCP) model was developed to assist the estimation of future emission inventories for GHG and common air pollutants. Also, the current emissions were estimated for Portugal with a higher detailed disaggregation to improve the performance of the air quality simulations. The air quality modelling system WRF/CAMx was tested and evaluated over Portugal and Porto urban area and the results point out that is an adequate tool for the analysis of air quality under climate change. For this purpose, regional simulations of air quality during historical period and future (2045-2050) were conducted with CAMx version 6.0 to evaluate the impacts of simulated future climate and anthropogenic emission projections on air quality over the study area. The climate and the emission projections were produced under the RCP8.5 scenario. The results from the simulations point out, that if the anthropogenic emissions keep the same in 2050, the concentrations of NO2, PM10 and O3 will increase in Portugal. When, besides the climate change effects, is consider the projected anthropogenic emissions the annual mean concentrations of NO2 decrease significantly in Portugal and Porto urban area, and on the contrary the annual mean PM10 concentrations increases in Portugal and decrease in Porto urban area. The O3 results are mainly caused by the reduction of ozone precursors, getting the higher reductions in urban areas and increases in the surrounding areas. All the analysis performed for both simulations for Porto urban area support that, for PM10 and O3, there will be an increase in the occurrence of extreme values, surpassing the annual legislated parameters and having more daily exceedances. This study constitutes an innovative scientific tool to help in future air quality management in order to mitigate future climate change impacts on air quality.