The Global War on Terrorism in the Horn of Africa

Ever since Siad Barre’s regime was toppled in the beginning of the 1990’s Somalia has been without an effective central government. As a result Somalia has remained in an anarchic condition of state collapse for nearly two decades. This anarchy has often been put forward as a potential breeding ground for terrorism. As a response to this threat the United States has undertaken several policies, initiatives, and operations in the Horn of Africa generally and in Somalia specifically. In this descriptive study a twofold analysis has been undertaken. First, conditions in present day Somalia as well as Somali history have been analyzed to evaluate the potential Somalia holds as a terrorist base of operations or a recruiting- or staging area. Second, US strategies and actions have been analyzed to evaluate the adequacy of the US response to the threat Somalia poses in terms of terrorism. Material for the analyses have been derived from anthropological, political, and security studies dealing with Somalia. This material has been augmented by a wide range of news coverage, western and non-western. Certain different US policy documents from different levels have been chosen to represent US strategies for the Global War on Terrorism. Because Somali social institutions, such as the clan system, hold great weight in Somali society, Somalia is a difficult area of operations for terrorist networks. In addition the changing nature of Somali alliances and the tangled webs of conflict that characterize present day Somalia aggravate the difficulties that foreign terrorist networks would encounter in Somalia, would they choose to try to utilize it in any great extent. The US has taken potential terrorism threats in Africa and specifically Somalia very seriously. US actions in Somalia have mainly focused on apprehending or neutralizing terror suspects. Such policies, coupled with backing the Ethiopian invasion of Somalia may have actually turned out increasing Somalia’s terror potential.

The 2010-2011 drought in the Horn of Africa in ECMWF reanalysis and seasonal forecast products

This study evaluates the use of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) products in monitoring and forecasting drought conditions during the recent 2010–2011 drought in the Horn of Africa (HoA). The region was affected by a precipitation deficit in both the October–December 2010 and March–May 2011 rainy seasons. These anomalies were captured by the ERA-Interim reanalysis (ERAI), despite its limitations in representing the March–May interannual variability. Soil moisture anomalies of ERAI also identified the onset of the drought condition early in October 2010 with a persistent drought still present in September 2011. This signal was also evident in normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) remote sensing data. The precipitation deficit in October–December 2010 was associated with a strong La Niña event. The ECMWF seasonal forecasts for the October–December 2010 season predicted the La Niña event from June 2010 onwards. The forecasts also predicted a below-average October–December rainfall, from July 2010 onwards. The subsequent March–May rainfall anomaly was only captured by the new ECWMF seasonal forecast system in the forecasts starting in March 2011. Our analysis shows that a recent (since 1999) drying in the region during the March–May season is captured by the new ECMWF seasonal forecast system and is consistent with recently published results. The HoA region and its population are highly vulnerable to future droughts, thus global monitoring and forecasting of drought, such as that presented here, will become increasingly important in the future. Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society

The European Union’s Response to Piracy: Are the Lessons Learned in the Horn of Africa a Model for the Gulf of Guinea? EU Diplomacy Paper/2015

The European Union (EU) is seen as the leading actor in successfully fighting piracy around the Horn of Africa. As a global trade power with strong economic interests, the EU is also challenged by similar maritime security threats in the Gulf of Guinea. To date, there has been no comprehensive analysis to assess the potential transfer of successful EU instruments from the Horn of Africa to the piracy situation in West African waters. This paper examines to what extent the EU can draw on its experience made in the Horn of Africa to deter piracy in West African waters. Based on qualitative research interviews, lessons learned from East Africa are identified and subsequently applied to the situation in the Gulf of Guinea. The results show that the EU is only partially drawing on its experience made in the Horn of Africa. One the one hand, it is rather reluctant to use crisis management instruments such as naval operations. On the other hand, the EU is drawing on its successful leadership in international political and military cooperation from around the Horn of Africa in order to make more effective use of available resources in the Gulf of Guinea.

Conflitos no chifre da África: oportunidades e constrangimentos da difusão do poder

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Relative motions of Africa, Iberia and Europe during Alpine orogeny

A revised kinematic model for the motions of Africa and Iberia relative to Europe since the Middle Jurassic is presented in order to provide boundary conditions for Alpine-Mediterranean reconstructions. These motions were calculated using up-to-date kinematic data predominantly based on magnetic isochrons in the Atlantic Ocean and published by various authors during the last 15 years. It is shown that convergence of Africa with respect to Europe commenced during the Cretaceous Normal Superchron (CNS), between chrons MO and 34 (120-83 Ma). This motion was subjected to fluctuations in convergence rates characterised by two periods of relatively rapid convergence (during Late Cretaceous and Eocene-Oligocene times) that alternated with periods of slower convergence (during the Paleocene and since the Early Miocene). Distinct changes in plate kinematics are recognised in the motion of Iberia with respect to Europe, indicated by: (1) a Late Jurassic-Early Cretaceous left-lateral strike-slip motion; (2) Late Cretaceous convergence; (3) Paleocene quiescence; (4) a short period of right-lateral strike-slip motion; and (5) final Eocene-Oligocene convergence. Based on these results, it is speculated that a collisional episode in the Alpine orogeny at ca. 65 Ma resulted in a dramatic decrease in the relative plate motions and that a slower motion since the Early Miocene promoted extension in the Mediterranean back-arc basins. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Analyse der literarischen Übersetzung des Werkes „Out of Africa“ von Karen Blixen

Die vorliegende Arbeit unternimmt den Versuch, anhand einer Analyse aufzuzeigen, inwiefern die Funktionen des von der Übersetzungswissenschaftlerin Christiane Nord geschaffenen Vier-Funktionen-Modells in der Übersetzung vertreten sind. Für die Analyse wurde die deutsche Übersetzung von Karen Blixens autobiografischem Werk „Out of Africa“ ausgewählt. Alle Funktionen, Übersetzungslösungen und -fehler werden anhand von Beispielen aufgezeigt und analysiert.

Household-based malaria control in a highly endemic area of Africa (Tanzania): determinants of transmission and disease and indicators for monitoring - Kilombero Malaria Project

The Kilombero Malaria Project (KMP) attemps to define opperationally useful indicators of levels of transmission and disease and health system relevant monitoring indicators to evaluate the impact of disease control at the community or health facility level. The KMP is longitudinal community based study (N = 1024) in rural Southern Tanzania, investigating risk factors for malarial morbidity and developing household based malaria control strategies. Biweekly morbidity and bimonthly serological, parasitological and drug consumption surveys are carried out in all study households. Mosquito densities are measured biweekly in 50 sentinel houses by timed light traps. Determinants of transmission and indicators of exposure were not strongly aggregated within households. Subjective morbidity (recalled fever), objective morbidity (elevated body temperature and high parasitaemia) and chloroquine consumption were strongly aggregated within a few households. Nested analysis of anti-NANP40 antibody suggest that only approximately 30% of the titer variance can explained by household clustering and that the largest proportion of antibody titer variability must be explained by non-measured behavioral determinants relating to an individual's level of exposure within a household. Indicators for evaluation and monitoring and outcome measures are described within the context of health service management to describe control measure output in terms of community effectiveness.

Jurassic sedimentary record and tectonic evolution of the northwestern corner of Africa

The history of the opening seaway from the westernmost Tethys to the Central Atlantic is traced by the analysis of the sedimentary facies development in the external Rif basin of Northern Morocco and the geological and seismic data from the Moroccan Atlantic continental margin. In the Rif basin, after the early Sinemurian, sedimentary facies dated by ammonites, foraminifers and brachiopods, indicate a progression of rapid subsidence resulting from extensional tectonic (tilted blocks, escarpment fault breccias, neptunian dykes etc.) from the N and NE to the S and SW. From the Toarcian to the Bajocian, deltas progress from the W and SW into the `'Rides sud-rifaines'' realm. From the late Bathonian to the Oxfordian, deep-sea fans develop in the external Rif. During the same period, deltaic sediments fill in the Middle Atlas basin of Eastern Morocco and progress into the external Rif. The top of the Jurassic is characterised by carbonate deposits. At the northwestern corner of Africa, the subsidence of the sedimentary basins by rifting is initiated in the late Triassic; however, at the Mazagan transect of the Atlantic continental margin, the tectonic pattern characteristic of a passive continental margin appears clearly only in the early Jurassic. At the foot of the Mazagan escarpment, the sedimentary record shows a foundering of the first bloc during early to middle Lias. A thermal uplift phase is indicated by emersion of the African margin shoulder in late Liassic, and thermal relaxation starts in the middle Jurassic. The morphology of this transect, compared with the conjugate side of the American continent is most easily explained by the uniform sense simple shear model.

Does Warfare Matter? Severity, Duration, and Outcomes of Civil Wars

Importa si una guerra civil es combat com un conflicte irregular, convencional o simètric no convencional? En altres paraules, tenen les “tecnologies de la rebel·lió” un impacte sobre la gravetat d’una guerra, la seva durada o el seu resultat? Aquest treball mostra que els conflictes irregulars duren més que els altres tipus de conflicte, mentre els convencionals tendeixen a ser més greus en termes de letalitat al camp de batalla. D’altra banda, els conflictes irregulars tendeixen a ser guanyats pels governs, mentre els altres són més propensos a acabar en empat. Substancialment, aquests resultats ens ajuden a donar sentit a l’evolució de les guerres civils, les quals tendeixen a ser més curtes, més intenses i més difícils per als governs. Teòricament, aquests resultats donen suport a la importància de la tecnologia de rebel·lió a l’estudiar la gravetat, la durada i els resultats de les guerres civils; a més, contribueixen a una millor comprensió de la contribució històrica de la guerra irregular a la construcció de l’Estat i al canvi social.