Previsão de diagramas de carga via Holt-Winters com três sazonalidades

Dissertação para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica Ramo de Energia

Abordagem à previsão do preço de energia elétrica via métodos de suavização exponencial

Dissertação para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica Ramo de Energia

Previsão de curto prazo do consumo de energia elétrica

Dissertação para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica - Ramo de Energia

Short-term Load Forecasting Based on Load Profiling

Load forecasting has gradually becoming a major field of research in electricity industry. Therefore, Load forecasting is extremely important for the electric sector under deregulated environment as it provides a useful support to the power system management. Accurate power load forecasting models are required to the operation and planning of a utility company, and they have received increasing attention from researches of this field study. Many mathematical methods have been developed for load forecasting. This work aims to develop and implement a load forecasting method for short-term load forecasting (STLF), based on Holt-Winters exponential smoothing and an artificial neural network (ANN). One of the main contributions of this paper is the application of Holt-Winters exponential smoothing approach to the forecasting problem and, as an evaluation of the past forecasting work, data mining techniques are also applied to short-term Load forecasting. Both ANN and Holt-Winters exponential smoothing approaches are compared and evaluated.

Sistemi per la rilevazione di frodi nel "Carrier Billing"

Il rilevamento e l’analisi delle frodi è una delle attività cruciali per un sistema di carrier billing. Una frode non rilevata prontamente può causare ingenti danni economici, mentre un falso positivo porta ad uno spreco di tempo da parte del team di Reporting and Control. In questa tesi viene studiato il dominio di un Payment Service Provider (PSP) operativo nel settore del carrier billing, andando ad approfondire il sistema di rilevamento delle frodi basato sull’analisi di serie storiche con la tecnica Holt-Winters. Verrà fornita una panoramica sull’architettura del sistema seguita da alcuni esempi in cui la scarsa qualità delle predizioni ha causato una perdita economica o temporale al PSP. Verranno quindi proposte numerose soluzioni per estendere e migliorare il sistema attuale, concentrandosi principalmente sulla pulizia dei dati da analizzare e sullo sfruttamento di informazioni implicitamente contenute nei dati. I miglioramenti apportati possono essere divisi in due categorie: quelli che necessitano della supervisione dell’essere umano e quelli che possono essere ottenuti in modo automatico da un algoritmo. Alcune di queste soluzioni verranno implementate e commentate confrontando le prestazioni del sistema prima e dopo le varie implementazioni. Alcune proposte verranno invece trattate solamente a livello teorico ma faranno parte degli sviluppi futuri. Infine si cercherà di trarre delle conclusioni, dimostrando come nel dominio del carrier billing sia possibile ottenere prestazioni soddisfacenti grazie ad un filtraggio supervisionato dei dati delle serie storiche, mentre i tentativi di filtraggio non supervisionato hanno fornito risultati contrastanti.

Predição de séries temporais de parâmetros de redes HSPA - WCDMA

With the growing demand of data traffic in the networks of third generation (3G), the mobile operators have attempted to focus resources on infrastructure in places where it identifies a greater need. The channeling investments aim to maintain the quality of service especially in dense urban areas. WCDMA - HSPA parameters Rx Power, RSCP (Received Signal Code Power), Ec/Io (Energy per chip/Interference) and transmission rate (throughput) at the physical layer are analyzed. In this work the prediction of time series on HSPA network is performed. The collection of values of the parameters was performed on a fully operational network through a drive test in Natal - RN, a capital city of Brazil northeastern. The models used for prediction of time series were the Simple Exponential Smoothing, Holt, Holt Winters Additive and Holt Winters Multiplicative. The objective of the predictions of the series is to check which model will generate the best predictions of network parameters WCDMA - HSPA.

Desire in the winter’s pale : a hermeneutic interpretation of the experience of sexual desire in older age

The experience of sexual desire in older age remains an aspect of the ageing experience about which little is known; much less understood. To address this gap in knowledge, the purpose of this hermeneutic interpretive study was to describe and understand how sexual desire is experienced in a sample of 11 purposively selected men and six women aged between 62 and 92 years. The study was based on audio-taped interviews with participants who were willing to discuss their experiences of sexual desire. The study was guided by the philosophy of Paul Ricoeur through the process of interview transcription to the interpretation of the experience of sexual desire in older age. Participants’ narratives were analysed for emergent themes using a twofold methodology inspired by Ricoeur. The narratives provided first-hand accounts of the experience of sexual desire in an ageing context. Findings revealed that participants identified as a sexual being regardless of age and availability of sexual partner. Findings also revealed that sexual selfhood was acknowledged through physiological response, that sexual desire could be influenced by socio-cultural factors and experienced within an ethical relational domain. Major themes explicated during the study included the experience of health and wellbeing, experience of sexual response, experience of sexual inadequacy, being socialised and re-entering the social scene.

Unusually cold and dry winters increase mortality in Australia

Seasonal patterns in mortality have been recognised for decades, with a marked excess of deaths in winter, yet our understanding of the causes of this phenomenon is not yet complete. Research has shown that low and high temperatures are associated with increased mortality independently of season; however, the impact of unseasonal weather on mortality has been less studied. In this study, we aimed to determine if unseasonal patterns in weather were associated with unseasonal patterns in mortality. We obtained daily temperature, humidity and mortality data from 1988 to 2009 for five major Australian cities with a range of climates. We split the seasonal patterns in temperature, humidity and mortality into their stationary and non-stationary parts. A stationary seasonal pattern is consistent from year-to-year, and a non-stationary pattern varies from year-to-year. We used Poisson regression to investigate associations between unseasonal weather and an unusual number of deaths. We found that deaths rates in Australia were 20–30% higher in winter than summer. The seasonal pattern of mortality was non-stationary, with much larger peaks in some winters. Winters that were colder or drier than a typical winter had significantly increased death risks in most cities. Conversely summers that were warmer or more humid than average showed no increase in death risks. Better understanding the occurrence and cause of seasonal variations in mortality will help with disease prevention and save lives.

Selectivity, pulse fishing and endogenous lifespan in Beverton-Holt models

Optimal management in a multi-cohort Beverton-Holt model with any number of age classes and imperfect selectivity is equivalent to finding the optimal fish lifespan by chosen fallow cycles. Optimal policy differs in two main ways from the optimal lifespan rule with perfect selectivity. First, weight gain is valued in terms of the whole population structure. Second, the cost of waiting is the interest rate adjusted for the increase in the pulse length. This point is especially relevant for assessing the role of selectivity. Imperfect selectivity reduces the optimal lifespan and the optimal pulse length. We illustrate our theoretical findings with a numerical example. Results obtained using global numerical methods select the optimal pulse length predicted by the optimal lifespan rule.

Abhängigkeit des Saisonbeginns in der Seezungen-Stellnetzfischerei vom Verlauf des Winters

In der Seezungen-Stellnetzfischerei waren in den zurückliegenden Jahren regelmäßig die beiden ersten Monate der fangsaison die ertragreichsten. Spitzenfänge wurden sogar nur in den ersten drei bis vier Wochen erzielt. Danach gingen die Fangmengen stetig zurück. Deshalb ist eine genaue Beobachtung des Saisonbeginns sowie auch ihres weiteren Verlaufs für eine erfolgreiche Seezungenfischerei außerordentlich wichtig.

Beverton and Holt equations: spreadsheet functions and uncertainty

This contribution illustrates how modern spreadsheets aid the calculation and visualization of yield models and how the effects of uncertainties may be incorporated using Monte Carlo simulation. It is argued that analogous approaches can be implemented for other assessment models of simple to medium complexity justifying wider use of spreadsheets in fisheries analysis and training.

Recent winters in the western United States and relationship to ENSO patterns [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): In the mountainous western United States, winter weather has consequences for the entire year, especially with respect to the use of water. For most of the past 6-8 years, drought has been a persistent feature of the climate.