四类气候－植被关系模型的比较研究

本研究应用数字地球技术，基于1950年～1980年的全国958个气象站的基本气象数据（包括气象站的经纬度，海拔，月均温，月降水，年均温， 年降水，日照时数，日照百分率，风速等），比较了四个不同的根据水、热平衡原理设计的气候一植被关系模型(Penman模型、Holdridge生命地带系统、和Kira方法Thomthwaite模型)在中国应用的一致性和适用性。结果表明：(1) Penman模型在温带草原区和青藏高原地区的一致性指数超过50%，在青藏高原最出色，最有发展潜力。(2) Thornthwaite模型在热带雨林、季雨林区达到39. 72%，可以弥补Holdridg模型在热带地区分类精度的不足。(3) Holdridg生命地带系统在不同地带间适用性最广;只在热带地区，例如西部季雨林、雨林区域(52)、西部草原亚区域(63)和青藏高原温性荒漠地带(86)以及青藏高原温性草原地带(84)不理想。(4)吉良(Kira)方法在亚热带常绿阔叶林区可与Holdridg模型相媲美;在低海拔和湿润、半湿润地区效果尚可，但在温带荒漠区与青藏高原区的模拟效果与实际相差较远。 这四个传统的分类方法在中国植被区划一级分类上是适用的，Holdridge生命地带系统KAPPA -致性指数达到0.57模拟效果优于其它三者，但在特定地区，如青藏高原，所有模型均需改进优化或启用新的模型因子才能很好地区分植被亚地带。本研究还指出，数字地球技术的应用有助于推动气候一植被关系的研究，尤其在气候一植被指标（气候参数和模型参数）的大范围实时动态监测、气候一植被关系数据的海量信息高效、有序基础管理和功能型模型库支撑框架体系方面。

西北干旱区多种植物地理分布与气候的相关性及其可能潜在分布预测

　　作为西部大开发的关键地区，西北干旱区由于地理位置和环境条件的独特性、生态系统的脆弱性以及人类活动的长期干扰，对其周边乃至全国的生态环境有较大的影响，在这一地区研究植物种分布与气候的关系，并模拟预测其可能的潜在分布范围，具有理论上和实践上的重要意义。 　　通过广泛收集了西北干旱区优势种和常见种的地理分布资料，共选择128个植物种，利用Holdridge的生命地带分类系统，计算各植物种的生物温度(BT)、可能蒸散(PE)、降水量(P)及可能蒸散率(PER)，分析植物种与气候的相互关系，并将所有植物种进行经验归纳分类。随后，对这砦植物种及其气候信息进行TWINSPAN定量分类，并与经验分类结果相比较，得出西北干旱区128种植物的生态气候分类，分属于以下几大类型：高寒草甸、森林一草原过渡带、草原（典型草原、荒漠草原）、荒漠（草原化荒漠、荒漠、高寒荒漠）。具体来说，包括以下17个生态气候类型： 1)高寒草甸：异针茅。 2)森林一草原过渡带：牛尾蒿、鬼箭锦鸡儿、沙棘。 3)草原a：沙蒿。 4)草原b：长芒草、百里香（变种）、多叶隐子草、贝加尔针茅、大针茅。 5)草原c：羊茅、小叶锦鸡儿、荒漠锦鸡儿、线叶菊、华北岩黄芪、廿青针茅、碱蒿、内蒙古沙蒿、裂叶蒿、狭叶锦鸡儿、山竹岩黄芪、女蒿、小蓬、两伯利亚杏、沙地柏、角果碱篷、霸王、糙隐子草。 6)草原d：紫狐茅、紫花针茅。 7)草原一荒漠草原a：包括沙竹、琵琶柴、吉尔吉斯针茅。 8)草原一荒漠草原b：华北米蒿、差巴嘎蒿、星星草、长芒针茅、铁竿蒿、柠条锦鸡儿。 9)荒漠草原：沙生冰草、蒙古冰草、羊草、冷蒿、中亚紫菀木、刺旋花、老瓜头、木贼麻黄、西伯利亚白刺、唐古特白刺、戈壁针茅、石生针茅、盐地碱蓬、冰草、蓍状亚菊、油蒿、木蓼、刺针枝蓼、长枝木蓼、中间锦鸡儿、尖叶盐爪爪、黄花琵琶柴、松叶猪毛菜、珍珠猪毛菜、东方针茅、囊果碱蓬、四合木、白滨藜、短脚锦鸡儿。 10)草原化荒漠，荒漠a：川青锦鸡儿、优若藜、苦艾蒿、无芒隐子草、沙冬青、籽蒿、地白蒿、菭草、齿叶白刺、绵刺、盐角草、多枝柽柳、盐生假木贼。 11)草原化荒漠．荒漠b：蒿叶猪毛菜、短花针茅、芨芨草、灌木亚菊、博乐蒿、小蒿、喀什蒿、南山短花菊、盐爪爪、木本猪毛菜、针茅、细枝盐爪爪。 12)草原化荒漠．荒漠c：白梭梭、白羊草、无叶假木贼。 13）干旱荒漠a：戈壁短花菊、荒漠细柄茅、刺蓬、沙生针茅、多花柽柳、细枝柽柳。 14)干旱荒漠b：梭梭柴、铃铛刺、天山猪毛菜、帕米尔麻黄、座花针茅、旱蒿、克氏狐茅、短叶假木贼、准格尔沙蒿、长穗柽柳、刚毛柽柳。 15)高寒荒漠植被：匍生优若藜。 16)干旱荒漠c：粉花蒿、白杆沙拐枣、膜果麻黄、花花柴、灌木紫菀木、裸果木、合头草、塔里木沙拐枣。 17)超干旱荒漠植被：沙拐枣、胡杨、盐穗木、灰杨、盐节木、圆叶盐爪爪。 　　综合分类结果表明：多数植物种的生态气候类型与实际生境相符，但也有少数植物种有明显偏差，主要原因有三点：首先，某些种的分布范围超出了西北干旱区，在东北、华北、甚至全国范围内分布，所计算的植物种的气候范围本身存在局限性;其次，西北干旱区的研究资料如植物种的分布范围、分布点的气象资料等有许多缺失：最后，由于文献中对某些植物种分布范围的描述比较笼统，无法确定其精确的地理分布界限，使得植物种所对应的分类结果与其真正所属的植 被类型有一些偏差。 　　本文还进一步在这128种植物中选取了10种分布明确、资料齐备的代表性植被类型的优势种，根据它们的降水和生物温度指标，模拟预测了它们的可能潜在分布区，包括其主要中心分布区和最大可能分布区，并与实际分布范围进行比较。结果表明．其潜在分布区的分布范围与实际调查所得资料所处范围基本一致，特别是中心分布区的预测图，而最大可能分布区与实际有一定误差。

Some postal economics with special reference to the postal zone system and Postal Zone Law of 1917,

Foreward.--Some postal economics, by C.J. Post.--American business and zone postal rates, by J. H. Neal.-- Appendix.

The legends and theories of the Buddhists, compared with history and science: with introductory notices of the life and system of Gotama Buddha.

Includes bibliographical references and index.

Reliability estimation of second life battery system power electronic topologies for grid frequency response applications

This paper is part of a project which aims to research the opportunities for the re-use of batteries after their primary use in low and ultra low carbon vehicles on the electricity grid system. One potential revenue stream is to provide primary/secondary/high frequency response to National Grid through market mechanisms via DNO's or Energy service providers. Some commercial battery energy storage systems (BESS) already exist on the grid system, but these tend to use costly new or high performance batteries. Second life batteries should be available at lower cost than new batteries but reliability becomes an important issue as individual batteries may suffer from degraded performance or failure. Therefore converter topology design could be used to influence the overall system reliability. A detailed reliability calculation of different single phase battery-to-grid converter interfacing schemes is presented. A suitable converter topology for robust and reliable BESS is recommended.

A Clinical Support System Based on Quality of Life Estimation

Quality of life is a concept influenced by social, economic, psychological, spiritual or medical state factors. More specifically, the perceived quality of an individual's daily life is an assessment of their well-being or lack of it. In this context, information technologies may help on the management of services for healthcare of chronic patients such as estimating the patient quality of life and helping the medical staff to take appropriate measures to increase each patient quality of life. This paper describes a Quality of Life estimation system developed using information technologies and the application of data mining algorithms to access the information of clinical data of patients with cancer from Otorhinolaryngology and Head and Neck services of an oncology institution. The system was evaluated with a sample composed of 3013 patients. The results achieved show that there are variables that may be significant predictors for the Quality of Life of the patient: years of smoking (p value 0.049) and size of the tumor (p value < 0.001). In order to assign the variables to the classification of the quality of life the best accuracy was obtained by applying the John Platt's sequential minimal optimization algorithm for training a support vector classifier. In conclusion data mining techniques allow having access to patients additional information helping the physicians to be able to know the quality of life and produce a well-informed clinical decision.

Measuring the burden of disease in Shandong province : an adoption of the disability-adjusted life year [应用伤残调整寿命年测量山东省居民疾病负担]

Objective To estimate the burden of diseases in Shandong province by the means of DALY (Disability- adjusted life year) thus to investigate the key public health problems referencing for health policy making. Methods DALYs were calculated following the procedures developed for the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study to ensure comparability. We measured YLLs using the mortality data of 19 Disease Surveillance Points (DSPs) in Shandong Province during 2000 and 2005. YLDs were estimated based on data for WPRO in the 2002 GBD study published by WHO. Results During this period, the average DALYs loss by all causes for the residents of DSPs in Shandong was 149.74 per thousand persons each year. Noncommunicable diseases accounted for 76.63% of the disability adjusted life years, communicable diseases and other disorders represented 14.13%, and injuries 9.24%. Nearly half of the DALYs (45%) happened among the elderly (60+). Malignant neoplasm was the number one cause of DALYs loss in the male, followed by neuropsychiatric disorder, injury, cerebrovascular disease, heart disease，etc. However, neuropsychiatric disorder possessed the largest single contributor to DALY in the female and followed by heart disease, malignant neoplasm, cerebrovascular disease and respiratory disease. Conclusion Non-communicable diseases such as circulatory diseases, neuropsychiatric disorders and malignant neoplasms were the main causes of disease burden in Shandong province. The importance of neuropsychiatric disorders was more striking and should be recognized properly. The lack of morbidity data is the main limitation of this study. Abstract in Chinese 目的 应用伤残调整寿命年测量山东省居民疾病负担,提出该地区主要卫生问题,为卫生决策提供科学依据. 方法 以山东省2000-2005年19个疾病监测点的死因监测资料为基础,利用世界卫生组织(WHO)提供的方法计算不同疾病在不同性别年龄人群所造成的伤残调整寿命年(DALYs),其中,YIJDs根据WHO公布的亚太区2002年疾病负担数据进行估算. 结果 2000-2005年山东省疾病监测系统居民因为早死和残疾年平均损失149.74个DALYs/千人,其中,76.6%的DALYs损失因慢性非传染性疾病所致,14.1%由传染性疾病等引起,9.2%因为意外伤害造成;接近1/2(45%)的DALYs损失发生在60岁以上人群;恶性肿瘤为造成男性居民DALYs损失的首位原因,其次为精神行为疾患、意外伤害、脑血管病和心脏病等,女性居民则以精神行为疾患为DALYs首位原因,其次为心脏病、恶性肿瘤、脑血管病和呼吸系统疾病. 结论 以循环系统疾病、精神行为疾惠和恶性肿瘤为首的慢性非传染性疾病为造成山东省疾病负担DALYs损失的主要原因.对于精神行为疾患的重要性的认识有待于进一步提高,研究的主要局限性在于发病率资料的缺乏.

Theorizing the Nature of Reflection

For the past decades reflection has been the buzzword of adult and higher education. Reflection is facilitated in many practices and there is abundant research on the issue. Despite the popularity of the concept, the reasons why bringing about reflection in educational practices is difficult remain unclear. The prevailing theories inform of the process in its ideal form. However, to a great extent, they fail to offer conceptual tools for understanding and working with the actualities of reflection. The aim of the doctoral thesis was to explore the challenges and prerequisites of reflection in order to theorize the nature of reflection. By the term reflection it is here referred to becoming aware of and questioning the assumptions that orient our thinking, feelings and actions. The doctoral thesis consists of five studies that approach these questions from different viewpoints and within different contexts. The methods involve both a philosophical and an empirical approach. This multifaceted approach embodies the aim of both gaining a more thorough grasp of the phenomenon and to develop the methodology of researching reflection. The theory building is based on conceptual analysis and rational reconstruction (see Davia 1998; Habermas 1979; Rorty1984) of Mezirow s (1981; 1991; 2000; 2009) theory of transformative learning. In order to explore the aspects which, based on the analysis, appeared insufficiently considered within Mezirow s theory, Damasio s (1994; 1999; 2003; 2010) theory on emotions and consciousness as well as Clausewitz s (1985) view on friction are used as complementary theories. Empirical analyses are used in dialogue with the theoretical, in order to challenge and refine the emerging theorization. Reflection is examined in three different contexts; regarding university teachers pedagogical growth, involuntarily childless women recovering from a life-event crisis, and soldiers preparing to act in chaotic situations of the battlefield as well as recovering from it. The choice of these contexts is based on Mezirow s notion of disorienting dilemma as a trigger for reflection. This notion indicates that reflection may more naturally emerge in association to life-event crises or other cumulative sets of instances, which bring our worldview and beliefs under question. Nevertheless, reflection is often being promoted in educational contexts in which the trigger conditions may not readily prevail. These contextual issues as well as the differences between the facilitated and non-facilitated contexts have not, however, been considered in detail within the research on reflection (or transformative learning). The doctoral thesis offers a new perspective into reflection which, as a further development on Mezirow s transformative learning theory, theorizes the nature of reflection. The developed theory explicates the prerequisites and challenges to reflection. The theory suggests that the challenges of reflection are fundamentally connected to the way the biological life-support system affects our thinking through emotions. While depicting the mechanisms that function as a counterforce to reflection, the developed theory also opens a perspective for considering possibilities for carrying out reflection, and suggests ways to locate and deal with the assumptions to be reflected on. The basic dynamic of the challenges to reflection was explicated by conceptually bridging the gap between Mezirow s and Damasio s theories, through exploring the connections between the meaning perspective and the biological functions of emotions. The concepts of comfort zone and edge-emotions were formed so as to depict the emotional orientation of our thinking, as part of the explanation of the nature of reflection.

Using a botanic garden collection to test a bioclimatic vegetation scheme

Vegetation maps and bioclimatic zone classifications communicate the vegetation of an area and are used to explain how the environment regulates the occurrence of plants on large scales. Many practises and methods for dividing the world’s vegetation into smaller entities have been presented. Climatic parameters, floristic characteristics, or edaphic features have been relied upon as decisive factors, and plant species have been used as indicators for vegetation types or zones. Systems depicting vegetation patterns that mainly reflect climatic variation are termed ‘bioclimatic’ vegetation maps. Based on these it has been judged logical to deduce that plants moved between corresponding bioclimatic areas should thrive in the target location, whereas plants moved from a different zone should languish. This principle is routinely applied in forestry and horticulture but actual tests of the validity of bioclimatic maps in this sense seem scanty. In this study I tested the Finnish bioclimatic vegetation zone system (BZS). Relying on the plant collection of Helsinki University Botanic Garden’s Kumpula collection, which according to the BZS is situated at the northern limit of the hemiboreal zone, I aimed to test how the plants’ survival depends on their provenance. My expectation was that plants from the hemiboreal or southern boreal zones should do best in Kumpula, whereas plants from more southern and more northern zones should show progressively lower survival probabilities. I estimated probability of survival using collection database information of plant accessions of known wild origin grown in Kumpula since the mid 1990s, and logistic regression models. The total number of accessions I included in the analyses was 494. Because of problems with some accessions I chose to separately analyse a subset of the complete data, which included 379 accessions. I also analysed different growth forms separately in order to identify differences in probability of survival due to different life strategies. In most analyses accessions of temperate and hemiarctic origin showed lower survival probability than those originating from any of the boreal subzones, which among them exhibited rather evenly high probabilities. Exceptionally mild and wet winters during the study period may have killed off hemiarctic plants. Some winters may have been too harsh for temperate accessions. Trees behaved differently: they showed an almost steadily increasing survival probability from temperate to northern boreal origins. Various factors that could not be controlled for may have affected the results, some of which were difficult to interpret. This was the case in particular with herbs, for which the reliability of the analysis suffered because of difficulties in managing their curatorial data. In all, the results gave some support to the BZS, and especially its hierarchical zonation. However, I question the validity of the formulation of the hypothesis I tested since it may not be entirely justified by the BZS, which was designed for intercontinental comparison of vegetation zones, but not specifically for transcontinental provenance trials. I conclude that botanic gardens should pay due attention to information management and curational practices to ensure the widest possible applicability of their plant collections.

Corrosion Health Monitoring System for Steel Ship Structures

Corrosion represents one of the largest through life cost component of ships. Ship owners and operators recognize that combating corrosion significantly impacts the vessels’ reliability, availability and through life costs. Primary objective of this paper is to review various inspections, monitoring systems and life cycle management with respect to corrosion control of ships and to develop the concept of “Corrosion Health” (CH) which would quantify the extent of corrosion at any point of ships’ operational life. A system approach in which the ship structure is considered as a corrosion system and divided into several corrosion zones, with distinct characteristics, is presented. Various corrosion assessment criteria for assessment of corrosion condition are listed. A CH rating system for representation of complex corrosion condition with a numeric number along with recommendations for repair/maintenance action is also discussed

Distribution system restoration in a DG environment using a heuristic constructive multi-start algorithm

This paper proposes a heuristic constructive multi-start algorithm (HCMA) to distribution system restoration in real time considering distributed generators installed in the system. The problem is modeled as nonlinear mixed integer and considers the two main goals of the restoration of distribution networks: minimizing the number of consumers without power and the number of switching. The proposed algorithm is implemented in C++ programming language and tested using a large real-life distribution system. The results show that the proposed algorithm is able to provide a set of feasible and good quality solutions in a suitable time for the problem. © 2011 IEEE.