Discerning the timing and cause of historical mortality events in modern Porites from the Great Barrier Reef

The life history strategies of massive Porites corals make them a valuable resource not only as key providers of reef structure, but also as recorders of past environmental change. Yet recent documented evidence of an unprecedented increase in the frequency of mortality in Porites warrants investigation into the history of mortality and associated drivers. To achieve this, both an accurate chronology and an understanding of the life history strategies of Porites are necessary. Sixty-two individual Uranium–Thorium (U–Th) dates from 50 dead massive Porites colonies from the central inshore region of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) revealed the timing of mortality to have occurred predominantly over two main periods from 1989.2 ± 4.1 to 2001.4 ± 4.1, and from 2006.4 ± 1.8 to 2008.4 ± 2.2 A.D., with a small number of colonies dating earlier. Overall, the peak ages of mortality are significantly correlated with maximum sea-surface temperature anomalies. Despite potential sampling bias, the frequency of mortality increased dramatically post-1980. These observations are similar to the results reported for the Southern South China Sea. High resolution measurements of Sr/Ca and Mg/Ca obtained from a well preserved sample that died in 1994.6 ± 2.3 revealed that the time of death occurred at the peak of sea surface temperatures (SST) during the austral summer. In contrast, Sr/Ca and Mg/Ca analysis in two colonies dated to 2006.9 ± 3.0 and 2008.3 ± 2.0, suggest that both died after the austral winter. An increase in Sr/Ca ratios and the presence of low Mg-calcite cements (as determined by SEM and elemental ratio analysis) in one of the colonies was attributed to stressful conditions that may have persisted for some time prior to mortality. For both colonies, however, the timing of mortality coincides with the 4th and 6th largest flood events reported for the Burdekin River in the past 60 years, implying that factors associated with terrestrial runoff may have been responsible for mortality. Our results show that a combination of U–Th and elemental ratio geochemistry can potentially be used to precisely and accurately determine the timing and season of mortality in modern massive Porites corals. For reefs where long-term monitoring data are absent, the ability to reconstruct historical events in coral communities may prove useful to reef managers by providing some baseline knowledge on disturbance history and associated drivers.

Comparative analysis of three brevetoxin-associated bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) mortality events in the Florida Panhandle region (USA)

In the Florida Panhandle region, bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) have been highly susceptible to large-scale unusual mortality events (UMEs) that may have been the result of exposure to blooms of the dinoflagellate Karenia brevis and its neurotoxin, brevetoxin (PbTx). Between 1999 and 2006, three bottlenose dolphin UMEs occurred in the Florida Panhandle region. The primary objective of this study was to determine if these mortality events were due to brevetoxicosis. Analysis of over 850 samples from 105 bottlenose dolphins and associated prey items were analyzed for algal toxins and have provided details on tissue distribution, pathways of trophic transfer, and spatial-temporal trends for each mortality event. In 1999/2000, 152 dolphins died following extensive K. brevis blooms and brevetoxin was detected in 52% of animals tested at concentrations up to 500 ng/g. In 2004, 105 bottlenose dolphins died in the absence of an identifiable K. brevis bloom; however, 100% of the tested animals were positive for brevetoxin at concentrations up to 29,126 ng/mL. Dolphin stomach contents frequently consisted of brevetoxin-contaminated menhaden. In addition, another potentially toxigenic algal species, Pseudo-nitzschia, was present and low levels of the neurotoxin domoic acid (DA) were detected in nearly all tested animals (89%). In 2005/2006, 90 bottlenose dolphins died that were initially coincident with high densities of K. brevis. Most (93%) of the tested animals were positive for brevetoxin at concentrations up to 2,724 ng/mL. No DA was detected in these animals despite the presence of an intense DA-producing Pseudo-nitzschia bloom. In contrast to the absence or very low levels of brevetoxins measured in live dolphins, and those stranding in the absence of a K. brevis bloom, these data, taken together with the absence of any other obvious pathology, provide strong evidence that brevetoxin was the causative agent involved in these bottlenose dolphin mortality events.

Spatial-temporal excess mortality patterns of the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic in Spain

Background: The impact of socio-demographic factors and baseline health on the mortality burden of seasonal and pandemic influenza remains debated. Here we analyzed the spatial-temporal mortality patterns of the 1918 influenza pandemic in Spain, one of the countries of Europe that experienced the highest mortality burden. Methods: We analyzed monthly death rates from respiratory diseases and all-causes across 49 provinces of Spain, including the Canary and Balearic Islands, during the period January-1915 to June-1919. We estimated the influenza-related excess death rates and risk of death relative to baseline mortality by pandemic wave and province. We then explored the association between pandemic excess mortality rates and health and socio-demographic factors, which included population size and age structure, population density, infant mortality rates, baseline death rates, and urbanization. Results: Our analysis revealed high geographic heterogeneity in pandemic mortality impact. We identified 3 pandemic waves of varying timing and intensity covering the period from Jan-1918 to Jun-1919, with the highest pandemic-related excess mortality rates occurring during the months of October-November 1918 across all Spanish provinces. Cumulative excess mortality rates followed a south-north gradient after controlling for demographic factors, with the North experiencing highest excess mortality rates. A model that included latitude, population density, and the proportion of children living in provinces explained about 40% of the geographic variability in cumulative excess death rates during 1918-19, but different factors explained mortality variation in each wave. Conclusions: A substantial fraction of the variability in excess mortality rates across Spanish provinces remained unexplained, which suggests that other unidentified factors such as comorbidities, climate and background immunity may have affected the 1918-19 pandemic mortality rates. Further archeo-epidemiological research should concentrate on identifying settings with combined availability of local historical mortality records and information on the prevalence of underlying risk factors, or patient-level clinical data, to further clarify the drivers of 1918 pandemic influenza mortality.

Caribbean corals in crisis: record thermal stress, bleaching, and mortality in 2005

Background: The rising temperature of the world’s oceans has become a major threat to coral reefs globally as the severity and frequency of mass coral bleaching and mortality events increase. In 2005, high ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean resulted in the most severe bleaching event ever recorded in the basin. Methodology/Principal Findings: Satellite-based tools provided warnings for coral reef managers and scientists, guiding both the timing and location of researchers’ field observations as anomalously warm conditions developed and spread across the greater Caribbean region from June to October 2005. Field surveys of bleaching and mortality exceeded prior efforts in detail and extent, and provided a new standard for documenting the effects of bleaching and for testing nowcast and forecast products. Collaborators from 22 countries undertook the most comprehensive documentation of basin-scale bleaching to date and found that over 80% of corals bleached and over 40% died at many sites. The most severe bleaching coincided with waters nearest a western Atlantic warm pool that was centered off the northern end of the Lesser Antilles. Conclusions/Significance: Thermal stress during the 2005 event exceeded any observed from the Caribbean in the prior 20 years, and regionally-averaged temperatures were the warmest in over 150 years. Comparison of satellite data against field surveys demonstrated a significant predictive relationship between accumulated heat stress (measured using NOAA Coral Reef Watch’s Degree Heating Weeks) and bleaching intensity. This severe, widespread bleaching and mortality will undoubtedly have long-term consequences for reef ecosystems and suggests a troubled future for tropical marine ecosystems under a warming climate

Genetic diversity and historical population structure of Schizopygopsis pylzovi (Teleostei : Cyprinidae) in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

1. Complete sequences of 1140 base pair of the cytochrome b gene from 133 specimens were obtained from nine localities including the inflow drainage system, isolated lakes and outflow drainage system in Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau to assess genetic diversity and to infer population histories of the freshwater fish Schizopygopsis pylzovi.2. Nucleotide diversities (pi) were moderate (0.0024-0.0045) in populations from the outflow drainage system and Tuosuo Lake, but low (0.0018-0.0021) in populations from Qiadam Basin. It is probable that the low intra-population variability is related with the paleoenvironmental fluctuation in Qiadam Basin, suggesting that the populations from Qiadam Basin have experienced severe bottleneck events in history.3. Phylogenetic tree topologies indicate that the individuals from different populations did not form reciprocal monophyly, but the populations from the adjacent drainages cluster geographically. Most population pairwise F-ST tests were significant, with non-significant pairwise tests between Tuosu Lake and Tuosuo Lake in the north-west of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) indicates that the significant genetic variation was explained at the levels of catchments within and among, not among specific boundaries or inflow and outflow drainage systems.4. The nested clade phylogeographical analysis indicates that historical processes are very important in the observed geographical structuring of S. pylzovi, and the contemporary population structure and differentiation of S. pylzovi may be consistent with the historical tectonic events occurred in the course of uplifts of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Fluctuations of the ecogeographical environment and major hydrographic formation might have promoted contiguous range expansion of freshwater fish populations, whereas the geological barriers among drainages have resulted in the fragmentation of population and restricted the gene flow among populations.5. The significantly large negative F-s-value (-24.91, P < 0.01) of Fu's F-s-test and the unimodal mismatch distribution indicate that the species S. pylzovi underwent a sudden population expansion after the historical tectonic event of the Gonghe Movement.6. The results of this study indicate that each population from the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau should be managed and conserved separately and that efforts should be directed towards preserving the genetic integrity of each group.

Assessment of the Wind Gust Estimate Method in mesoscale modelling of storm events over West Germany

A physically based gust parameterisation is added to the atmospheric mesoscale model FOOT3DK to estimate wind gusts associated with storms over West Germany. The gust parameterisation follows the Wind Gust Estimate (WGE) method and its functionality is verified in this study. The method assumes that gusts occurring at the surface are induced by turbulent eddies in the planetary boundary layer, deflecting air parcels from higher levels down to the surface under suitable conditions. Model simulations are performed with horizontal resolutions of 20 km and 5 km. Ten historical storm events of different characteristics and intensities are chosen in order to include a wide range of typical storms affecting Central Europe. All simulated storms occurred between 1990 and 1998. The accuracy of the method is assessed objectively by validating the simulated wind gusts against data from 16 synoptic stations by means of “quality parameters”. Concerning these parameters, the temporal and spatial evolution of the simulated gusts is well reproduced. Simulated values for low altitude stations agree particularly well with the measured gusts. For orographically exposed locations, the gust speeds are partly underestimated. The absolute maximum gusts lie in most cases within the bounding interval given by the WGE method. Focussing on individual storms, the performance of the method is better for intense and large storms than for weaker ones. Particularly for weaker storms, the gusts are typically overestimated. The results for the sample of ten storms document that the method is generally applicable with the mesoscale model FOOT3DK for mid-latitude winter storms, even in areas with complex orography.

Genetic variability and structuring of deep Corallium rubrum (Linnaeus, 1758) populations

ABSTRACT Given the decline of shallow-water red coral populations resulting from over-exploitation and mass mortality events, deeper populations below 50 metres depth (mesophotic populations) are currently the most harvested; unfortunately, very little is known about their biology and ecology. The persistence of these populations is tightly linked to their adult density, reproductive success, larval dispersal and recruitment. Moreover, for their conservation, it is paramount understand processes such as connectivity within and among populations. Here, for the first time, genetic variability and structuring of Corallium rubrum populations collected in the Tyrrhenian Sea ranging from 58 to 118 metres were analyzed using ten microsatellite loci and two mitochondrial markers (mtMSH and MtC). The aims of the work were 1) to examine patterns of genetic diversity within each geographic area (Elba, Ischia and Praiano) and 2) to define population structuring at different spatial scales (from tens of metres to hundreds of kilometres). Based on microsatellite data set, significant deviations from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium due to elevated heterozygote deficiencies were detected in all samples, probably related to the presence of null alleles and/or inbreeding, as was previously observed in shallow-water populations. Moreover, significant levels of genetic differentiation were observed at all spatial scale, suggesting a recent isolation of populations. Biological factors which act at small spatial scale and/or abiotic factors at larger scale (e.g. summer gyres or absence of suitable substrata for settlement) could determine this genetic isolation. Using mitochondrial markers, significant differences were found only at wider scale (between Tuscany and Campania regions). These results could be related to the different mutation rate of the molecular makers or to the occurrence of some historical links within regions. A significant isolation by distance pattern was then observed using both data sets, confirming the restricted larval dispersal capability of the species. Therefore, the hypothesis that deeper populations may act as a source of larvae helping recovery of threatened shallow-water populations is not proved. Conservation strategies have to take into account these results, and management plans of deep and currently harvested populations have to be defined at a regional or sub regional level, similarly to shallow-water populations. Nevertheless, further investigations should be needed to understand better the genetic structuring of this species in the mesophotic zone, e.g. extending studies to other Mediterranean deep-water populations.

Population structure, growth and production of the surf clam Donax hanleyanus (Bivalvia: Donacidae) from northern Argentinean beaches

The surf clams Mesodesma mactroides Reeve, 1854 and Donax hanleyanus Philippi, 1847 are the two dominating species in macrobenthic communities of sandy beaches off northern Argentina, with the latter now surpassing M. mactroides populations in abundance and biomass. Before stock decimation caused by exploitation (during the 1940s and 1950s) and mass mortality events (1995, 1999 and 2007) M. mactroides was the prominent primary consumer in the intertidal ecosystem and an important economic resource in Argentina. Since D. hanleyanus was not commercially fished and not affected by mass mortality events, it took over as the dominant species, but did never reach the former abundance of M. mactroides. Currently abundance and biomass of both surf clams are a multiple smaller than those of forty years ago, indicating the conservation status of D. hanleyanus and M. mactroides as endangered. Therefore the aim of this study is to analyse the population dynamics (population structure, growth and reproductive biology) of D. hanleyanus and M. mactroides, and to compare the results with historical data in order to detect possible differences within surf clam populations forty years ago and at present.

High-frequency winter cooling and reef coral mortality during the Holocene climatic optimum

A detailed ecological, micro-structural and skeletal Sr/Ca study of a 3.42 m thick Goniopora reef profile from an emerged Holocene reef terrace at the northern South China Sea reveals at least nine abrupt massive Goniopora stress and mortality events occurred in winter during the 7.0-7.5 thousand calendar years before present (cal. ka BP) (within the Holocene climatic optimum). Whilst calculated Sr/Ca-SST (sea surface temperature) maxima during this period are comparable to those in the 1990s, Sr/Ca-SST minima are significantly lower, probably due to stronger winter monsoons. Such generally cooler winters, superimposed by further exceptional winter cooling on inter-annual to decadal scales, may have caused stress and mortality of the corals about every 50 years. Sea level rose by similar to 3.42 m during this period, with present sea-level reached at similar to 7.3 ka BP and a sea-level highstand of at least similar to 1.8 m occurred at similar to 7.0 ka. The results show that it took about 20-25 years for a killed Goniopora coral reef to recover. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mass mortality following disturbance in Holocene coral reefs from Papua New Guinea

The frequency and intensity of disturbance on living coral reefs have been accelerating for the past few decades, resulting in a changed seascape. What is unclear but vital for management is whether this acceleration is natural or coincident only with recent human impact. We surveyed nine uplifted early to mid-Holocene (11,000-3700 calendar [cal] yr B.P.) fringing and barrier reefs along similar to 27 km at the Huon Peninsula, Papua New Guinea. We found evidence for several episodes of coral mass mortality, but frequency was < 1 in 1500 yr. The most striking mortality event extends > 16 km along the ancient coastline, occurred ca. 9100-9400 cal yr B.P., and is associated with a volcanic ash horizon. Recolonization of the reef surface and resumption of vertical reef accretion was rapid (< 100 yr), but the post-disturbance reef communities contrasted with their pre-disturbance counterparts. Assessing the frequency, nature, and long-term ecological consequences of mass-mortality events in fossil coral reefs may provide important insights to guide management of modern reefs in this time of environmental degradation and change.

FLOOD RISK ASSESSMENT UNDER HISTORICAL AND PREDICTED LAND USE CHANGE USING CONTINUOUS HYDROLOGIC MODELING

Current procedures for flood risk estimation assume flood distributions are stationary over time, meaning annual maximum flood (AMF) series are not affected by climatic variation, land use/land cover (LULC) change, or management practices. Thus, changes in LULC and climate are generally not accounted for in policy and design related to flood risk/control, and historical flood events are deemed representative of future flood risk. These assumptions need to be re-evaluated, however, as climate change and anthropogenic activities have been observed to have large impacts on flood risk in many areas. In particular, understanding the effects of LULC change is essential to the study and understanding of global environmental change and the consequent hydrologic responses. The research presented herein provides possible causation for observed nonstationarity in AMF series with respect to changes in LULC, as well as a means to assess the degree to which future LULC change will impact flood risk. Four watersheds in the Midwest, Northeastern, and Central United States were studied to determine flood risk associated with historical and future projected LULC change. Historical single framed aerial images dating back to the mid-1950s were used along with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and remote sensing models (SPRING and ERDAS) to create historical land use maps. The Forecasting Scenarios of Future Land Use Change (FORE-SCE) model was applied to generate future LULC maps annually from 2006 to 2100 for the conterminous U.S. based on the four IPCC-SRES future emission scenario conditions. These land use maps were input into previously calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) models for two case study watersheds. In order to isolate effects of LULC change, the only variable parameter was the Runoff Curve Number associated with the land use layer. All simulations were run with daily climate data from 1978-1999, consistent with the 'base' model which employed the 1992 NLCD to represent 'current' conditions. Output daily maximum flows were converted to instantaneous AMF series and were subsequently modeled using a Log-Pearson Type 3 (LP3) distribution to evaluate flood risk. Analysis of the progression of LULC change over the historic period and associated SWAT outputs revealed that AMF magnitudes tend to increase over time in response to increasing degrees of urbanization. This is consistent with positive trends in the AMF series identified in previous studies, although there are difficulties identifying correlations between LULC change and identified change points due to large time gaps in the generated historical LULC maps, mainly caused by unavailability of sufficient quality historic aerial imagery. Similarly, increases in the mean and median AMF magnitude were observed in response to future LULC change projections, with the tails of the distributions remaining reasonably constant. FORE-SCE scenario A2 was found to have the most dramatic impact on AMF series, consistent with more extreme projections of population growth, demands for growing energy sources, agricultural land, and urban expansion, while AMF outputs based on scenario B2 showed little changes for the future as the focus is on environmental conservation and regional solutions to environmental issues.

Exploring nest destruction and bird mortality in mown Mediterranean dry grasslands: an increasing threat to grassland bird conservation

In recent years, haying has extended to Iberian Mediterranean dry grasslands potentially impacting on grassland bird ecology. We evaluated the impact of haying on a grassland bird community of South Portugal. Our main goals were: (1) to investigate the exposure of different species to haying, (2) to investigate potential removal of nests and dead birds from hayed fields by haying machinery using the ratio (REC) between the expected number of records and the number of records collected and (3) to link clutch destruction and bird mortality with haying management practices. Hayed fields were surveyed for signs of breeding and birds censused prior to mowing. Linear models were computed, linking the REC with haying machinery and sward properties. GLMs and model averaging were used to obtain models linking clutch destruction, bird mortality and haying management variables. Only 4 % of records evidenced successful nesting attempts (N = 177). REC evaluation suggested high nest or dead bird removal by the machinery, particularly in fields with lower vegetation biomass prior to cutting. Sickle bar mowers and one-rotor rotary rakes returned higher REC but lower probability of found nests removed from the original nesting sites comparatively to discs mowers and wheel rakes. Higher probabilities of mortality events were found in fields mown earlier (but not in all years). On the other hand, lower mortality was found in fields raked with two-rotor rotary rakes. Delayed haying, silage production in temporary crops and the use haying machinery enabling simultaneously mowing and gathering hay in lines are discussed as management alternatives.

Design and implementation of sensor networks for the observation and research of harmful algal blooms in southern California coastal waters

Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) have become an important environmental concern along the western coast of the United States. Toxic and noxious blooms adversely impact the economies of coastal communities in the region, pose risks to human health, and cause mortality events that have resulted in the deaths of thousands of fish, marine mammals and seabirds. One goal of field-based research efforts on this topic is the development of predictive models of HABs that would enable rapid response, mitigation and ultimately prevention of these events. In turn, these objectives are predicated on understanding the environmental conditions that stimulate these transient phenomena. An embedded sensor network (Fig. 1), under development in the San Pedro Shelf region off the Southern California coast, is providing tools for acquiring chemical, physical and biological data at high temporal and spatial resolution to help document the emergence and persistence of HAB events, supporting the design and testing of predictive models, and providing contextual information for experimental studies designed to reveal the environmental conditions promoting HABs. The sensor platforms contained within this network include pier-based sensor arrays, ocean moorings, HF radar stations, along with mobile sensor nodes in the form of surface and subsurface autonomous vehicles. FreewaveTM radio modems facilitate network communication and form a minimally-intrusive, wireless communication infrastructure throughout the Southern California coastal region, allowing rapid and cost-effective data transfer. An emerging focus of this project is the incorporation of a predictive ocean model that assimilates near-real time, in situ data from deployed Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs). The model then assimilates the data to increase the skill of both nowcasts and forecasts, thus providing insight into bloom initiation as well as the movement of blooms or other oceanic features of interest (e.g., thermoclines, fronts, river discharge, etc.). From these predictions, deployed mobile sensors can be tasked to track a designated feature. This focus has led to the creation of a technology chain in which algorithms are being implemented for the innovative trajectory design for AUVs. Such intelligent mission planning is required to maneuver a vehicle to precise depths and locations that are the sites of active blooms, or physical/chemical features that might be sources of bloom initiation or persistence. The embedded network yields high-resolution, temporal and spatial measurements of pertinent environmental parameters and resulting biology (see Fig. 1). Supplementing this with ocean current information and remotely sensed imagery and meteorological data, we obtain a comprehensive foundation for developing a fundamental understanding of HAB events. This then directs labor- intensive and costly sampling efforts and analyses. Additionally, we provide coastal municipalities, managers and state agencies with detailed information to aid their efforts in providing responsible environmental stewardship of their coastal waters.

Climatic fluctuations during the LIA and post-LIA in the Kumaun Lesser Himalaya, India: Evidence from a 400 y old stalagmite record

This paper presents the first stable isotope (delta O-18 and delta C-13) data of a similar to 400 years (1590-2006 AD) long annual to decadal-resolution speleothem record collected from the Indian Lesser Himalaya. The data show a variation from -2.7 to -5.9 parts per thousand in delta O-18 and -5.3 to -8.8 parts per thousand in delta C-13. The isotopic analyses indicate that the climate during this period can be divided into two stages: a wet phase during the Little Ice Age (LIA) (1590-1850 AD) and comparatively dry phase during the post-LIA after 1850 AD. However, the record also documents the minor dry events during the LIA and a wet episode after the LIA. Within the age uncertainty, the dry spells during the LIA are linked with the historical drought events in the Indian subcontinent and similar latitudes. The isotopic record is consistent with a number of previous studies in the areas influenced by the Westerlies but appears to be conflicting to the regions, dominated by the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM). This may be due to the possible changes in the strength of Westerlies in the study area and added by negative anomaly of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) during the LIA. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved.

Characteristics and causes of Texas marine strandings

Three major mass mortality events occurred on the upper Texas coast during 1994, from January through the second week of May. These events were distinguished by unusually large numbers of dead dolphins, sea turtles, and fishes washing ashore on Texas beaches. The beach stranding of dead animals began in January with bottlenose dolphins. By the end of March, 142 dolphins had washed ashore as compared to about 40 expected. By the latter part of April, dolphin mortalities declined but stranding of dead and comatose sea turtles increased. By the end of April, at least 127 sea turtles had stranded on the Texas coast since the beginning of the year, about double the expected number. Then, during May and June, a third mortality event began with a massive fish kill and more turtle deaths. By the middle of May, mortalities of all species as indicated by beach strandings returned to within expected levels. Nevertheless, 1994 stood out as a record year of marine mass mortalities in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. (PDF file contains 94 pages.)