Characterization of diverse megathrust fault behavior related to seismic supercycles, Mentawai Islands, Sumatra

Long paleoseismic histories are necessary for understanding the full range of behavior of faults, as the most destructive events often have recurrence intervals longer than local recorded history. The Sunda megathrust, the interface along which the Australian plate subducts beneath Southeast Asia, provides an ideal natural laboratory for determining a detailed paleoseismic history over many seismic cycles. The outer-arc islands above the seismogenic portion of the megathrust cyclically rise and subside in response to processes on the underlying megathrust, providing uncommonly good illumination of megathrust behavior. Furthermore, the growth histories of coral microatolls, which record tectonic uplift and subsidence via relative sea level, can be used to investigate the detailed coseismic and interseismic deformation patterns. One particularly interesting area is the Mentawai segment of the megathrust, which has been shown to characteristically fail in a series of ruptures over decades, rather than a single end-to-end rupture. This behavior has been termed a seismic “supercycle.” Prior to the current rupture sequence, which began in 2007, the segment previously ruptured during the 14th century, the late 16th to late 17th century, and most recently during historical earthquakes in 1797 and 1833. In this study, we examine each of these previous supercycles in turn.

First, we expand upon previous analysis of the 1797–1833 rupture sequence with a comprehensive review of previously published coral microatoll data and the addition of a significant amount of new data. We present detailed maps of coseismic uplift during the two great earthquakes and of interseismic deformation during the periods 1755–1833 and 1950–1997 and models of the corresponding slip and coupling on the underlying megathrust. We derive magnitudes of Mw 8.7–9.0 for the two historical earthquakes, and determine that the 1797 earthquake fundamentally changed the state of coupling on the fault for decades afterward. We conclude that while major earthquakes generally do not involve rupture of the entire Mentawai segment, they undoubtedly influence the progression of subsequent ruptures, even beyond their own rupture area. This concept is of vital importance for monitoring and forecasting the progression of the modern rupture sequence.

Turning our attention to the 14th century, we present evidence of a shallow slip event in approximately A.D. 1314, which preceded the “conventional” megathrust rupture sequence. We calculate a suite of slip models, slightly deeper and/or larger than the 2010 Pagai Islands earthquake, that are consistent with the large amount of subsidence recorded at our study site. Sea-level records from older coral microatolls suggest that these events occur at least once every millennium, but likely far less frequently than their great downdip neighbors. The revelation that shallow slip events are important contributors to the seismic cycle of the Mentawai segment further complicates our understanding of this subduction megathrust and our assessment of the region’s exposure to seismic and tsunami hazards.

Finally, we present an outline of the complex intervening rupture sequence that took place in the 16th and 17th centuries, which involved at least five distinct uplift events. We conclude that each of the supercycles had unique features, and all of the types of fault behavior we observe are consistent with highly heterogeneous frictional properties of the megathrust beneath the south-central Mentawai Islands. We conclude that the heterogeneous distribution of asperities produces terminations and overlap zones between fault ruptures, resulting in the seismic “supercycle” phenomenon.

A study of W boson properties with four-jet W^+W^- events at LEP

In this thesis I present a study of W pair production in e⁺e^- annihilation using fully hadronic W⁺W^- events. Data collected by the L3 detector at LEP in 1996-1998, at collision center-of-mass energies between 161 and 189 GeV, was used in my analysis.

Analysis of the total and differential W⁺W^- cross sections with the resulting sample of 1,932 W⁺W^- → qqqq event candidates allowed me to make precision measurements of a number of properties of the W boson. I combined my measurements with those using other W⁺W^- final states to obtain stringent constraints on the W boson's couplings to fermions, other gauge bosons, and scalar Higgs field by measuring the total e⁺e^- → W⁺W^- cross section and its energy dependence

σ(e⁺e^- → W⁺W^-) =

{2.68^+0.98_-0.67(stat.)± 0.14(syst.) pb, √s = 161.34 GeV

{12.04^+1.38_-1.29(stat.)± 0.23(syst.) pb, √s = 172.13 GeV

{16.45 ± 0.67(stat.) ± 0.26(syst.) pb, √s = 182.68 GeV

{16.28 ± 0.38(stat.) ± 0.26(syst.) pb, √s = 188.64 GeV

the fraction of W bosons decaying into hadrons

invisible non-SM width of the W boson

the mass of the W boson

the total width of the W boson

the anomalous triple gauge boson couplings of the W

Δg^Z₁ = 0.16^+0.13_-0.20(stat.) ± 0.11(syst.)

Δk_γ = 0.26^+0.24_-0.33(stat.) ± 0.16(syst.)

λ_γ = 0.18^+0.13_-0.20(stat.) ± 0.11(syst.)

No significant deviations from Standard Model predictions were found in any of the measurements.

The streaming of 1.3-2.3 MeV cosmic-ray protons during periods between prompt solar particle events

The anisotropy of 1.3 - 2.3 MeV protons in interplanetary space has been measured using the Caltech Electron/Isotope Spectrometer aboard IMP-7 for 317 6-hour periods from 72/273 to 74/2. Periods dominated by prompt solar particle events are not included. The convective and diffusive anisotropies are determined from the observed anisotropy using concurrent solar wind speed measurements and observed energy spectra. The diffusive flow of particles is found to be typically toward the sun, indicating a positive radial gradient in the particle density. This anisotropy is inconsistent with previously proposed sources of low-energy proton increases seen at 1 AU which involve continual solar acceleration.

The typical properties of this new component of low-energy cosmic rays have been determine d for this period which is near solar minimum. The particles have a median intensity of 0.06 protons/ cm^(2)-sec-sr-MeV and a mean spectral index of -3.15.The amplitude of the diffusive anisotropy is approximately proportional to the solar wind speed. The rate at which particles are diffusing toward the sun is larger than the rate at which the solar wind is convecting the particles away from the sun. The 20 to 1 proton to alpha ratio typical of this new component has been reported by Mewaldt, et al. (1975b).

A propagation model with κ_(rr) assumed independent of radius and energy is used to show that the anisotropy could be due to increases similar to those found by McDonald, et al. (1975) at ~3 AU. The interplanetary Fermi-acceleration model proposed by Fisk (1976) to explain the increases seen near 3 AU is not consistent with the ~12 per cent diffusive anisotropy found.

The dependence of the diffusive anisotropy on various parameters is shown. A strong dependence of the direction of the diffusive anisotropy on the concurrently measured magnetic field direction is found, indicating a κ_⊥ less than κ_∥ to be typical for this large data set.

Death or taxes? The political economy of sanitation expenditure in nineteenth-century Britain

This thesis consists of three papers studying the relationship between democratic reform, expenditure on sanitation public goods and mortality in Britain in the second half of the nineteenth century. During this period decisions over spending on critical public goods such as water supply and sewer systems were made by locally elected town councils, leading to extensive variation in the level of spending across the country. This dissertation uses new historical data to examine the political factors determining that variation, and the consequences for mortality rates.

The first substantive chapter describes the spread of government sanitation expenditure, and analyzes the factors that determined towns' willingness to invest. The results show the importance of towns' financial constraints, both in terms of the available tax base and access to borrowing, in limiting the level of expenditure. This suggests that greater involvement by Westminster could have been very effective in expediting sanitary investment. There is little evidence, however, that democratic reform was an important driver of greater expenditure.

Chapter 3 analyzes the effect of extending voting rights to the poor on government public goods spending. A simple model predicts that the rich and the poor will desire lower levels of public goods expenditure than the middle class, and so extensions of the right to vote to the poor will be associated with lower spending. This prediction is tested using plausibly exogenous variation in the extent of the franchise. The results strongly support the theoretical prediction: expenditure increased following relatively small extensions of the franchise, but fell once more than approximately 50% of the adult male population held the right to vote.

Chapter 4 tests whether the sanitary expenditure was effective in combating the high mortality rates following the Industrial Revolution. The results show that increases in urban expenditure on sanitation-water supply, sewer systems and streets-was extremely effective in reducing mortality from cholera and diarrhea.