The Optimal Confidence Region for a Random Parameter

Under a two-level hierarchical model, suppose that the distribution of the random parameter is known or can be estimated well. Data are generated via a fixed, but unobservable realization of this parameter. In this paper, we derive the smallest confidence region of the random parameter under a joint Bayesian/frequentist paradigm. On average this optimal region can be much smaller than the corresponding Bayesian highest posterior density region. The new estimation procedure is appealing when one deals with data generated under a highly parallel structure, for example, data from a trial with a large number of clinical centers involved or genome-wide gene-expession data for estimating individual gene- or center-specific parameters simultaneously. The new proposal is illustrated with a typical microarray data set and its performance is examined via a small simulation study.

Clinical study on survival rate of short implants placed in the posterior mandibular region: resonance frequency analysis

Short implants are increasingly used, but there is doubt about their performance being similar to that of regular implants. The aim of this study was to compare the mechanical stability of short implants vs. regular implants placed in the edentulous posterior mandible. Twenty-three patients received a total of 48 short implants (5 × 5.5 mm and 5 × 7 mm) and 42 regular implants (4 × 10 mm and 4 × 11.5 mm) in the posterior mandible. Patients who received short implants had <10 mm of bone height measured from the bone crest to the outer wall of the mandibular canal. Resonance frequency analysis (RFA) was performed at time intervals T0 (immediately after implant placement), T1 (after 15 days), T2 (after 30 days), T3 (after 60 days), and T4 (after 90 days). The survival rate after 90 days was 87.5% for the short implants and 100% for regular implants (P < 0.05). There was no significant difference between the implants in time intervals T1, T2, T3, and T4. In T0, the RFA values of 5 × 5.5 implants were higher than values of 5 × 7 and 4 × 11.5 implants (P < 0.05). A total of six short implants that were placed in four patients were lost (three of 5 × 5.5 mm and three of 5 × 7 mm). Three lost implants started with high ISQ values, which progressively decreased. The other three lost implants started with a slightly lower ISQ value, which rose and then began to fall. Survival rate of short implants after 90 days was lower than that of regular implants. However, short implants may be considered a reasonable alternative for rehabilitation of severely resorbed mandibles with reduced height, to avoid performing bone reconstruction before implant placement. Patients need to be aware of the reduced survival rate compared with regular implants before implant placement to avoid disappointments.

Clinical study on survival rate of short implants placed in the posterior mandibular region: resonance frequency analysis.

OBJECTIVE Short implants are increasingly used, but there is doubt about their performance being similar to that of regular implants. The aim of this study was to compare the mechanical stability of short implants vs. regular implants placed in the edentulous posterior mandible. MATERIAL AND METHODS Twenty-three patients received a total of 48 short implants (5 × 5.5 mm and 5 × 7 mm) and 42 regular implants (4 × 10 mm and 4 × 11.5 mm) in the posterior mandible. Patients who received short implants had <10 mm of bone height measured from the bone crest to the outer wall of the mandibular canal. Resonance frequency analysis (RFA) was performed at time intervals T0 (immediately after implant placement), T1 (after 15 days), T2 (after 30 days), T3 (after 60 days), and T4 (after 90 days). RESULTS The survival rate after 90 days was 87.5% for the short implants and 100% for regular implants (P < 0.05). There was no significant difference between the implants in time intervals T1, T2, T3, and T4. In T0, the RFA values of 5 × 5.5 implants were higher than values of 5 × 7 and 4 × 11.5 implants (P < 0.05). A total of six short implants that were placed in four patients were lost (three of 5 × 5.5 mm and three of 5 × 7 mm). Three lost implants started with high ISQ values, which progressively decreased. The other three lost implants started with a slightly lower ISQ value, which rose and then began to fall. CONCLUSIONS Survival rate of short implants after 90 days was lower than that of regular implants. However, short implants may be considered a reasonable alternative for rehabilitation of severely resorbed mandibles with reduced height, to avoid performing bone reconstruction before implant placement. Patients need to be aware of the reduced survival rate compared with regular implants before implant placement to avoid disappointments.

Evidence from molecules and morphology expands Podonomopsis Brundin (Diptera: Chironomidae: Podonominae) to include ‘genus Chile'

The informal taxon ‘genus Chile’ of Brundin, based solely on pupal exuviae of a podonomine Chironomidae, has remained inadequately known for half a century. New collections reveal life associations, and provide molecular data to hypothesise a precise phylogenetic placement in the austral Podonominae. A densely sampled molecular phylogeny based on two nuclear and one mitochondrial DNA markers shows ‘genus Chile’ to be the sister group to Podonomopsis Brundin, 1966. Within Podonomopsis a clade of South American species is sister to all Australian species. We discuss how to rank such a sister group taxon and treat ‘genus Chile’ as a new subgenus Araucanopsis, subg. nov. with the new species, Podonomopsis (Araucanopsis) avelasse, sp. nov. from Chile and Argentina as genotype of the monotypic subgenus. We describe P. (A.) avelasse in all stages and provide an expanded diagnosis and description of Podonomopsis to include Araucanopsis. A dated biogeographic hypothesis (chronogram) infers the most recent common ancestor (tmcra) of expanded Podonomopsis at 95 million years ago (Mya) (68–122 Mya 95% highest posterior density), ‘core’ Podonomopsis at 83 Mya (58–108) and Australian Podonomopsis at 65 Mya (44–87). All dates are before the South America–Australia geological separation through Antarctica, supporting previous conclusions that the taxon distribution is ‘Gondwanan’ in origin. Podonomopsis, even as expanded here, remains unknown from New Zealand or elsewhere on extant Zealandia.

Avian diversification patterns across the K-Pg boundary: Influence of calibrations, datasets, and model misspecification

Birds represent the most diverse extant tetrapod clade, with ca. 10,000 extant species, and the timing of the crown avian radiation remains hotly debated. The fossil record supports a primarily Cenozoic radiation of crown birds, whereas molecular divergence dating analyses generally imply that this radiation was well underway during the Cretaceous. Furthermore, substantial differences have been noted between published divergence estimates. These have been variously attributed to clock model, calibration regime, and gene type. One underappreciated phenomenon is that disparity between fossil ages and molecular dates tends to be proportionally greater for shallower nodes in the avian Tree of Life. Here, we explore potential drivers of disparity in avian divergence dates through a set of analyses applying various calibration strategies and coding methods to a mitochondrial genome dataset and an 18-gene nuclear dataset, both sampled across 72 taxa. Our analyses support the occurrence of two deep divergences (i.e., the Palaeognathae/Neognathae split and the Galloanserae/Neoaves split) well within the Cretaceous, followed by a rapid radiation of Neoaves near the K-Pg boundary. However, 95% highest posterior density intervals for most basal divergences in Neoaves cross the boundary, and we emphasize that, barring unreasonably strict prior distributions, distinguishing between a rapid Early Paleocene radiation and a Late Cretaceous radiation may be beyond the resolving power of currently favored divergence dating methods. In contrast to recent observations for placental mammals, constraining all divergences within Neoaves to occur in the Cenozoic does not result in unreasonably high inferred substitution rates. Comparisons of nuclear DNA (nDNA) versus mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) datasets and NT- versus RY-coded mitochondrial data reveal patterns of disparity that are consistent with substitution model misspecifications that result in tree compression/tree extension artifacts, which may explain some discordance between previous divergence estimates based on different sequence types. Comparisons of fully calibrated and nominally calibrated trees support a correlation between body mass and apparent dating error. Overall, our results are consistent with (but do not require) a Paleogene radiation for most major clades of crown birds.

Natural hybridization between genera that diverged from each other approximately 60 million years ago.

A fern from the French Pyrenees-×Cystocarpium roskamianum-is a recently formed intergeneric hybrid between parental lineages that diverged from each other approximately 60 million years ago (mya; 95% highest posterior density: 40.2-76.2 mya). This is an extraordinarily deep hybridization event, roughly akin to an elephant hybridizing with a manatee or a human with a lemur. In the context of other reported deep hybrids, this finding suggests that populations of ferns, and other plants with abiotically mediated fertilization, may evolve reproductive incompatibilities more slowly, perhaps because they lack many of the premating isolation mechanisms that characterize most other groups of organisms. This conclusion implies that major features of Earth's biodiversity-such as the relatively small number of species of ferns compared to those of angiosperms-may be, in part, an indirect by-product of this slower "speciation clock" rather than a direct consequence of adaptive innovations by the more diverse lineages.

Ages of 24 widespread tephras erupted since 30,000 years ago in New Zealand, with re-evaluation of the timing and palaeoclimatic implications of the Lateglacial cool episode recorded at Kaipo bog

Tephras are important for the NZ-INTIMATE project because they link all three records comprising the composite inter-regional stratotype developed for the New Zealand climate event stratigraphy (NZ-CES). Here we firstly report new calendar ages for 24 widespread marker tephras erupted since 30,000 calendar (cal.) years ago in New Zealand to help facilitate their use as chronostratigraphic dating tools for the NZ-CES and for other palaeoenvironmental and geological applications. The selected tephras comprise 12 rhyolitic tephras from Taupo, nine rhyolitic tephras from Okataina, one peralkaline rhyolitic tephra from Tuhua, and one andesitic tephra each from Tongariro and Egmont/Taranaki volcanic centres. Age models for the tephras were obtained using three methods: (i) C-based wiggle-match dating of wood from trees killed by volcanic eruptions (these dates published previously); (ii) flexible depositional modelling of a high-resolution C-dated age-depth sequence at Kaipo bog using two Bayesian-based modelling programs, Bacon and OxCal's P_Sequence function, and the IntCal09 data set (with SH offset correction-44±17yr); and (iii) calibration of C ages using OxCal's Tau_Boundary function and the SHCal04 and IntCal09 data sets. Our preferred dates or calibrated ages for the 24 tephras are as follows (youngest to oldest, all mid-point or mean ages of 95% probability ranges): Kaharoa AD 1314±12; Taupo (Unit Y) AD 232±10; Mapara (Unit X) 2059±118cal.yrBP; Whakaipo (Unit V) 2800±60cal.yrBP; Waimihia (Unit S) 3401±108cal.yrBP; Stent (Unit Q) 4322±112cal.yrBP; Unit K 5111±210cal.yrBP; Whakatane 5526±145cal.yrBP; Tuhua 6577±547cal.yrBP; Mamaku 7940±257cal.yrBP; Rotoma 9423±120cal.yrBP; Opepe (Unit E) 9991±160cal.yrBP; Poronui (Unit C) 11,170±115cal.yrBP; Karapiti (Unit B) 11,460±172cal.yrBP; Okupata 11,767±192cal.yrBP; Konini (bed b) 11,880±183cal.yrBP; Waiohau 14,009±155cal.yrBP; Rotorua 15,635±412cal.yrBP; Rerewhakaaitu 17,496±462cal.yrBP; Okareka 21,858±290cal.yrBP; Te Rere 25,171±964cal.yrBP; Kawakawa/Oruanui 25,358±162cal.yrBP; Poihipi 28,446±670cal.yrBP; and Okaia 28,621±1428cal.yrBP.Secondly, we have re-dated the start and end of the Lateglacial cool episode (climate event NZce-3 in theNZ-CES), previously referred to as the Lateglacial climate reversal, as defined at Kaipo bog in eastern North Island, New Zealand, using both Bacon and OxCal P_Sequence modelling with the IntCal09 data set. The ca1200-yr-long cool episode, indicated by a lithostratigraphic change in the Kaipo peat sequence to grey mudwith lowered carbon content, and a high-resolution pollen-derived cooling signal, began 13,739±125cal.yrBP and ended 12,550±140cal.yrBP (mid-point ages of the 95% highest posterior density regions, Bacon modelling). The OxCal modelling, generating almost identical ages, confirmed these ages. The Lateglacial cool episode (ca 13.8-12.6cal.kaBP) thus overlaps a large part of the entire Antarctic Cold Reversal chronozone (ca 14.1-12.4cal.kaBP or ca 14.6-12.8cal.kaBP), and an early part of the Greenland Stadial-1 (Younger Dryas) chronozone (ca 12.9-11.7cal.kaBP). The timing of the Lateglacial cool episode at Kaipo is broadly consistent with the latitudinal patterns in the Antarctic Cold Reversal signal suggested for the New Zealand archipelago from marine and terrestrial records, and with records from southern South America. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.

Genetic parameters for milk yield, lactation length and calving intervals of murrah buffaloes from brazil

The major objective of this study was to estimate heritability and genetic correlations between milk yield (MY) and calving interval (CI) and lactation length (LL) in Murrah buffaloes using Bayesian inference. The database used belongs to the genetic improvement program of four buffalo herds from Brazil. To obtain the estimates of variance and covariance, bivariate analyses were performed with the Gibbs sampler, using the program MTGSAM. The heritability coefficient estimates were 0.28, 0.03 and 0.15 for MY, CI and LL, respectively. The genetic correlations between MY and LL was moderate (0.48). However, the genetic correlation between MY and CI showed large HPD regions (highest posterior density interval). Milk yield was the only trait with clear potential for genetic improvement by direct mass selection. The genetic correlation between MY and LL indicates that indirect selection using milk yield is a potentially beneficialstrategy.Theinterpretation of the estimated genetic correlation between MY and CI is difficult and could be spurious. ©2013 Sociedade Brasileira de Zootecnia.

Productive and reproductive traits in Murrah breed from Brazil

Major objective of this study was to estimate heritability and genetic correlations between milk yield (MY) and calving interval (CI) and lactation length (LL) in Murrah buffaloes using Bayesian inference. The database used belongs to the genetic improvement program of four buffalo herds from Brazil. To obtain the estimates of variance and covariance, bivariate analyses were performed with the Gibbs sampler, using the program MTGSAM. The heritability coefficient estimates were 0.28, 0.03 and 0.15 for MY, CI and LL, respectively. The genetic correlations between MY and LL was moderate (0.48). However, the genetic correlation between MY and CI showed large HPD regions (highest posterior density interval). Milk yield was the only trait with clear potential for genetic improvement by direct mass selection. The genetic correlation between MY-LL indicates that indirect selection using milk yield is a potentially beneficial strategy. The interpretation of the estimated genetic correlation between MY-CI is difficult and could be spurious.

Body condition score of Nellore beef cows: a heritable measure to improve the selection of reproductive and maternal traits

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Ecological gradients and landscape structure affecting seasonal woodpigeon Columba palumbus densities in a coastal region (South-East Spain)

The aim of the present study is to identify and evaluate the relationship between Woodpigeon (Columba palumbus, Linnaeus, 1758) density and different environmental gradients (thermotype, ombrotype, continentality and latitudinal), land use and landscape structure, using geographic information systems and multivariate modelling. Transects (n = 396) were developed to estimate the density of Woodpigeon in the Marina Baja (Alicante, Spain) from 2006 to 2008. The highestdensity for Woodpigeon was in September-October (1.28birds/10ha) and the lowest inFebruary-March (0.34birds/10ha). Moreover, there were more Woodpigeons in areas with a mesomediterranean thermotypethan in thermomediterranean or supramediterranean ones. There was greater densityinthe intermediate zones compared to thecoast and interior. The natural or cultural landscape had the highest Woodpigeon density (1.53birds/10ha), with both denseand clear pine forest values standing out. Therefore, it is very important to conserve these traditional landscapes with adequate management strategies in order to maintain, resident and transient Woodpigeon populations. These natural areas are open places where the Woodpigeons find food and detect the presence ofpredators. Thus, this study will enable more precise knowledge of the ecological factors (habitat variables) that intervene in the distribution of Woodpigeon populations and their density.

Cell density alters matrix accumulation in two distinct fractions and the mechanical integrity of alginate-chondrocyte constructs

Chondrocyte density in articular cartilage is known to change with the development and growth of the tissue and may play an important role in the formation of a functional extracellular matrix (ECM). The objective of this study was to determine how initial chondrocyte density in an alginate hydrogel affects the matrix composition, its distribution between the cell-associated (CM) and further removed matrix (FRM) fractions, and the tensile mechanical properties of the developing engineered cartilage. Alginate constructs containing primary bovine chondrocytes at densities of 0, 4, 16, and 64 million cells/ml were fabricated and cultured for 1 or 2 weeks, at which time structural, biochemical, and mechanical properties were analyzed. Both matrix content and distribution varied with the initial cell density. Increasing cell density resulted in an increasing content of collagen and sulfated-glycosaminoglycan (GAG) and an increasing proportion of these molecules localized in the CM. While the equilibrium tensile modulus of cell-free alginate did not change with time in culture, the constructs with highest cell density were 116% stiffer than cell-free controls after 2 weeks of culture. The equilibrium tensile modulus was positively correlated with total collagen (r2 = 0.47, p < 0.001) and GAG content (r2 = 0.68, p < 0.001), and these relationships were enhanced when analyzing only those matrix molecules in the CM fraction (r2 = 0.60 and 0.72 for collagen and GAG, respectively, each p < 0.001). Overall, the results of this study indicate that initial cell density has a considerable effect on the developing composition, structure, and function of alginate–chondrocyte constructs.

Effect of the Addition of B2O3 on the Density, Microstructure, Dielectric, Piezoelectric and Ferroelectric Properties of K0.5Na0.5NbO3 Ceramics

Boron oxide (B2O3) addition to pre-reacted K0.5Na0.5NbO3 (KNN) powders facilitated swift densification at relatively low sintering temperatures which was believed to be a key to minimize potassium and sodium loss. The base KNN powder was synthesized via solid-state reaction route. The different amounts (0.1-1 wt%) of B2O3 were-added, and ceramics were sintered at different temperatures and durations to optimize the amount of B2O3 needed to obtain KNN pellets with highest possible density and grain size. The 0.1 wt% B2O3-added KNN ceramics sintered at 1,100 A degrees C for 1 h exhibited higher density (97 %). Scanning electron microscopy studies confirmed an increase in average grain size with increasing B2O3 content at appropriate temperature of sintering and duration. The B2O3-added KNN ceramics exhibited improved dielectric and piezoelectric properties at room temperature. For instance, 0.1 wt% B2O3-added KNN ceramic exhibited d (33) value of 116 pC/N which is much higher than that of pure KNN ceramics. Interestingly, all the B2O3-added (0.1-1 wt%) KNN ceramics exhibited polarization-electric field (P vs. E) hysteresis loops at room temperature. The remnant polarization (P (r)) and coercive field (E (c)) values are dependent on the B2O3 content and crystallite size.