Forecasting with Vector Nonlinear Time Series Models

This work concerns forecasting with vector nonlinear time series models when errorsare correlated. Point forecasts are numerically obtained using bootstrap methods andillustrated by two examples. Evaluation concentrates on studying forecast equality andencompassing. Nonlinear impulse responses are further considered and graphically sum-marized by highest density region. Finally, two macroeconomic data sets are used toillustrate our work. The forecasts from linear or nonlinear model could contribute usefulinformation absent in the forecasts form the other model.

On some Concepts of Residuals

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 60E10, 62G15, 62M20

Influence of estrogen deficiency and its treatment with alendronate and estrogen on bone density around osseointegrated implants: radiographic study in female rats

Objective. This study evaluated the influence of estrogen deficiency and its treatment on bone density around integrated implants.Study design. Implants were placed in female rat tibiae. The animals were assigned to 5 groups: control, sham, ovariectomy, estrogen, and alendronate. The control group was humanely killed to confirm integration of the implant. The others were submitted to ovariectomy or sham surgery. Bone density was measured by digital radiographs at 6 points on sides of the implant.Results. The analysis of radiographic bone density revealed estrogen privation had a negative impact only in the cancellous bone. The estrogen group differed significantly ( P <.05) from the ovariectomy and alendronate groups. The alendronate group presented the highest density for all evaluated regions.Conclusion. Ovariectomy caused a decrease in the radiographic bone density in the cancellous region. Estrogen replacement therapy and alendronate were effective treatments in preventing bone mass loss around integrated implants.

The Optimal Confidence Region for a Random Parameter

Under a two-level hierarchical model, suppose that the distribution of the random parameter is known or can be estimated well. Data are generated via a fixed, but unobservable realization of this parameter. In this paper, we derive the smallest confidence region of the random parameter under a joint Bayesian/frequentist paradigm. On average this optimal region can be much smaller than the corresponding Bayesian highest posterior density region. The new estimation procedure is appealing when one deals with data generated under a highly parallel structure, for example, data from a trial with a large number of clinical centers involved or genome-wide gene-expession data for estimating individual gene- or center-specific parameters simultaneously. The new proposal is illustrated with a typical microarray data set and its performance is examined via a small simulation study.

Automatic clustering and population analysis of white matter tracts using maximum density paths

We introduce a framework for population analysis of white matter tracts based on diffusion-weighted images of the brain. The framework enables extraction of fibers from high angular resolution diffusion images (HARDI); clustering of the fibers based partly on prior knowledge from an atlas; representation of the fiber bundles compactly using a path following points of highest density (maximum density path; MDP); and registration of these paths together using geodesic curve matching to find local correspondences across a population. We demonstrate our method on 4-Tesla HARDI scans from 565 young adults to compute localized statistics across 50 white matter tracts based on fractional anisotropy (FA). Experimental results show increased sensitivity in the determination of genetic influences on principal fiber tracts compared to the tract-based spatial statistics (TBSS) method. Our results show that the MDP representation reveals important parts of the white matter structure and considerably reduces the dimensionality over comparable fiber matching approaches.

The dependence of computed tomography number to relative electron density conversion on phantom geometry and its impact on planned dose

A computed tomography number to relative electron density (CT-RED) calibration is performed when commissioning a radiotherapy CT scanner by imaging a calibration phantom with inserts of specified RED and recording the CT number displayed. In this work, CT-RED calibrations were generated using several commercially available phantoms to observe the effect of phantom geometry on conversion to electron density and, ultimately, the dose calculation in a treatment planning system. Using an anthropomorphic phantom as a gold standard, the CT number of a material was found to depend strongly on the amount and type of scattering material surrounding the volume of interest, with the largest variation observed for the highest density material tested, cortical bone. Cortical bone gave a maximum CT number difference of 1,110 when a cylindrical insert of diameter 28 mm scanned free in air was compared to that in the form of a 30 × 30 cm2 slab. The effect of using each CT-RED calibration on planned dose to a patient was quantified using a commercially available treatment planning system. When all calibrations were compared to the anthropomorphic calibration, the largest percentage dose difference was 4.2 % which occurred when the CT-RED calibration curve was acquired with heterogeneity inserts removed from the phantom and scanned free in air. The maximum dose difference observed between two dedicated CT-RED phantoms was ±2.1 %. A phantom that is to be used for CT-RED calibrations must have sufficient water equivalent scattering material surrounding the heterogeneous objects that are to be used for calibration.

Melanopsin ganglion cell function in early age-related macular degeneration

Purpose Melanopsin-expressing retinal ganglion cells (mRGCs) have non-image forming functions including mediation of the pupil light reflex (PLR). There is limited knowledge about mRGC function in retinal disease. Initial retinal changes in age-related macular degeneration (AMD) occur in the paracentral region where mRGCs have their highest density, making them vulnerable during disease onset. In this cross-sectional clinical study, we measured the PLR to determine if mRGC function is altered in early stages of macular degeneration. Methods Pupil responses were measured in 8 early AMD patients (AREDS 2001 classification; mean age 72.6 ± 7.2 years, 5M, and 3F) and 12 healthy control participants (mean age 66.6 ± 6.1 years, 8M and 4F) using a custom-built Maxwellian-view pupillometer. Stimuli were 0.5 Hz sinewaves (10 s duration, 35.6° diameter) of short wavelength light (464nm, blue; retinal irradiance = 14.5 log quanta.cm-2.s-1) to produce high melanopsin excitation and of long wavelength light (638nm, red; retinal irradiance = 14.9 log quanta.cm-2.s-1), to bias activation to outer retina and provide a control. Baseline pupil diameter was determined during a 10 s pre-stimulus period. The post illumination pupil response (PIPR) was recorded for 40 s. The 6 s PIPR and maximum pupil constriction were expressed as percentage baseline (M ± SD). Results The blue PIPR was significantly less sustained (p<0.01) in the early AMD group (75.49 ± 7.88%) than the control group (58.28 ± 9.05%). The red PIPR was not significantly different (p>0.05) between the early AMD (84.79 ± 4.03%) and control groups (82.01 ± 5.86%). Maximum constriction amplitude in the early AMD group for blue (43.67 ± 6.35%) and red (48.64 ± 6.49%) stimuli were not significantly different to the control group for blue (39.94 ± 3.66%) and red (44.98 ± 3.15%) stimuli (p>0.05). Conclusions These results are suggestive of inner retinal mRGC deficits in early AMD. This non-invasive, objective measure of pupil responses may provide a new method for quantifying mRGC function and monitoring AMD progression.

Direct acceleration of solid-density plasma bunch by ultraintense laser

The interaction of a petawatt laser with a small solid-density plasma bunch is studied by particle-in-cell simulation. It is shown that when irradiated by a laser of intensity >10(21) W/cm(2), a dense plasma bunch of micrometer size can be efficiently accelerated. The kinetic energy of the ions in the high-density region of the plasma bunch can exceed ten MeV at a density in the 10(23)-cm(-3) level. Having a flux density orders of magnitude higher than that of the traditional charged-particle pulses, the laser-accelerated plasma bunch can have a wide range of applications. In particular, such a dense energetic plasma bunch impinging on the compressed fuel in inertial fusion can significantly enhance the nuclear-reaction cross section and is thus a promising alternative for fast ignition.

Spatial and temporal analysis of bottlenose dolphin strandings in South Carolina, 1992-2005

This CD contains summary data of bottlenose dolphins stranded in South Carolina using a Geographical Information System (GIS) and contains two published manuscripts in .pdf files. The intent of this CD is to provide data on bottlenose dolphin strandings in South Carolina to marine mammal researchers and managers. This CD is an accumulation of 14 years of stranding data collected through the collaborations of the National Ocean Service, Center for Coastal Environmental Health and Biomolecular Research (CCEHBR), the South Carolina Department of Natural Resources, and numerous volunteers and veterinarians that comprised the South Carolina Marine Mammal Stranding Network. Spatial and temporal information can be visually represented on maps using GIS. For this CD, maps were created to show relationships of stranding densities with land use, human population density, human interaction with dolphins, high geographical regions of live strandings, and seasonal changes. Point maps were also created to show individual strandings within South Carolina. In summary, spatial analysis revealed higher densities of bottlenose dolphin strandings in Charleston and Beaufort Counties, which consist of urban land with agricultural input. This trend was positively correlated with higher human population levels in these coastal counties as compared with other coastal counties. However, spatial analysis revealed that certain areas within a county may have low human population levels but high stranding density, suggesting that the level of effort to respond to strandings is not necessarily positively correlated with the density of strandings in South Carolina. Temporal analysis revealed a significantly higher density of bottlenose dolphin strandings in the northern portion of the State in the fall, mostly due to an increase of neonate strandings. On a finer geographic scale, seasonal stranding densities may fluctuate depending on the region of interest. Charleston Harbor had the highest density of live bottlenose dolphin strandings compared to the rest of the State. This was due in large part to the number of live dolphin entanglements in the crab pot fishery, the largest source of fishery-related mortality for bottlenose dolphins in South Carolina (Burdett and McFee 2004). Spatial density calculations also revealed that Charleston and Beaufort accounted for the majority of dolphins that were involved with human activities. 1

岷江上游高山林线附近优势树种土壤种子库和幼苗更新特征的研究

岷江上游地区高山/亚高山植被分布的坡向性分异显著，阴阳坡高山林线不仅物种组成差异明显，并且分布海拔呈现出阴坡高阳坡低的格局．阳坡林线树种主要是圆柏属乔木，林线类型多为渐变型，海拔高度大约在3 400m~3 800m；阴坡林线树种主要是冷杉，林线类型多为骤变型，海拔高度约在3 800m~4 400m．本研究采用土壤种子库物理筛选、室内萌发实验及野外群落调查等方法，对岷江上游地区阴坡岷江冷杉和阳坡祁连圆柏两类林线树种不同海拔梯度上土壤种子库以及幼苗库特征进行了调查，从土壤种子库和幼苗更新特征的角度对林线乔木树种种群更新特征进行了分析，进而对该地区高山林线在阴阳坡分布差异的原因进行了探讨，结果显示： 1．土壤种子库 阴坡：阴坡高山林线附近岷江冷杉土壤种子的平均密度大约为50.96粒/m2，其中树线以上10m处土壤种子密度为1.00粒/m2，树线处大约19.33粒/m2，林线交错带内土壤种子密度最高为136.83粒/m2，郁闭林内种子密度小于林线交错带，只有30.50粒/m2，种子平均空壳率为52％，霉变率达34%，完好种子只有6%．土壤种子库垂直分布特征为地被物层含种子比重最大，大约在67.50%左右；其次为0~2cm层，约18.84%左右；2~5cm层所占种子比例最小，约13.66%左右．霉变种子数量与土壤深度呈负相关． 阳坡：阳坡祁连圆柏土壤种子的平均密度为60.16粒/m2．树线以上10m处密度为1.92粒/m2，树线位置大约108.16粒/m2，林线交错带内平均为75.80粒/m2，郁闭林内种子密度小于林线交错带，只有20.00粒/m2．种子平均空壳率为36％，完好种子占49%，霉变率较低，大约为10%．阴阳坡林线树种土壤种子库垂直分布特征为：地被物层含种子最多，其次为0~4cm层，4~10cm层所占种子比例最小，霉变种子数量与土壤深度也呈负相关． 2． 幼苗库调查 阳坡：在树线以上区域没有发现幼苗，林线交错带内幼苗密度平均达3 250株/hm2，郁闭林内仅2 750株/ hm2．整个样地内1～2a幼苗很少甚至没有出现，3～10a的幼苗相对较多．空间分布上，祁连圆柏幼苗在林线交错带内接近随机分布，郁闭林内则介于随机分布和均匀分布之间． 阴坡：在树线以上幼苗密度为1 250株/ hm2，全部为1~2a幼苗，林线交错带内幼苗密度平均达7 000株/ hm2，郁闭林内达6 250株/ hm2．林线附近岷江冷杉幼苗丰富度以及幼苗的出现频率明显高于祁连圆柏，年龄结构也较祁连圆柏完整．岷江冷杉幼苗空间分布除了树线处幼苗的分布为随机分布，其他海拔则为集群分布． 3．从不同土壤深度的种子总量和幼苗数量的相关性检验发现，当年生幼苗数量跟表层种子总量相关性极显著, 但是两年生幼苗的数量与底层种子数量相关性显著．土壤种子在土壤中的垂直分布格局从一定程度上可以反映种子库的年际特征．岷江冷杉土壤种子库较丰富，种子散布后的存活力随着时间的变化逐渐下降，属于季节性瞬时种子库；祁连圆柏土壤种子散布格局为集群型分布，成熟种子大部分散布在母株冠幅内，属于永久性土壤种子库． 4．在阴坡林线交错带及以上区域还存在较为丰富的乔木土壤种子，并且在树线以上区域还发现了少量的岷江冷杉幼苗．从样地乔木的年龄结构发现，在林线交错带内上部到树线位置主要以幼龄林为主，且年龄结构完整，基本符合入侵性林线特征；阳坡林线交错带内幼苗出现频率很低，树线以上区域虽然存在种子库，但是没有幼苗出现，在林线交错带内乔木径级差距很大，年龄结构异常不完整，这种特征的林线将会面临两个可能结果：一种是维持现有状态，保持平衡；另外一种就是退化，但阳坡林线的实际动态趋势还有待长期定点研究． Treelines on the upper region of Minjiang River differ between the north aspect and the south aspect in their appearances, altitudes and tree species. On the north aspect, trees of Abies form a sharp and abrupt treeline ranging from 3800m to 4400m, while on the south the treeline is generally lower(3 400~3 800m), more open and gradual and mostly composed of Sabina. In this study, we examined the altitudinal gradients of soil seed banks and seedling recruitments at the treeline ecotones of a N-aspect and a S-aspect by using soil sieving, germination experiment and field investigations, analyzed the characteristics of population regeneration of tree species at the transitional zone and presented a analysis of the causes to the aspect-related difference in treeline patterns in the study area. Major results of our study include: 1． Soil seed bank N-aspect: Of the 50 plots investigated, the average density of soil seeds is 50.96/m2, in which well-formed seeds account for 6%, empty seeds 52%, parasitized seeds34%, and seeds damaged by animals 8%. The size of soil seed bank varies along altitude, being 1.00 seeds /m2 at the 10m above the treeline and ca.19.33 seeds/m2 at the upper limit of treeline. The highest density (136.83 seeds/m2) occurs at the treeline ecotone. By contrast, the density of soil seed for the closed forest is only 30.50 seeds/m2. In terms of vertical strata, 67.50% of the total seeds are at the surface layer, 18.84% at the middle layer (0~2cm) and 13.66% at deeper layer (2~5cm). The number of parasitized seeds is negatively correlated to soil depth. S-aspect: Of the 50 plots investigated, the average density of soil seeds is 60.16 seeds/m2, and the well-formed seeds account for 49%, empty seeds 36%, parasitized seeds10%, and seeds damaged by animals 1%. The size of soil seed bank varies along altitude, with 1.92 seeds/m2 recorded at the10m above the treeline，108.16 seeds/m2 at the upper limit of treeline, and 75.80 seeds/m2 at the treeline ecotone, while that for the closed forest is 20.00 seeds/m2. The number of seeds decreases with the depth of soil. As is on the N-aspect, the size of soil bank, from large to small, follows the order of the surface layer, the middle layer (0~4cm) and the bottom layer (4~10cm). The number of parasitized seeds is also negatively correlated to the depth of the soil. 2． Seedling bank N-aspect: A mean maximum seedling abundance of 31 000 seedlings/hm2 was recorded near alpine treeline at growing season. The density of seedlings is 1 250 seedlings/ha (all being 1 or 2 years old) at the alpine meadow 10m away above treeline, 7 000 seedlings/ha at treeline ecotone and 6 250 seedlings/ha for closed forest．The spatial distribution of Abies faxoniana seedlings is random at the upper limit of the treeline but clumped at other altitudes． S-aspect: No seedlings were found at the alpine meadow 10m away from the treeline. The density of seedlings was 3 250 seedlings/ha at treeline ecotone and 2 750 seedlings/ha for the closed forest．Hardly any 1 year current and 2 year-old seedlings appeared at the plots. The spatial distribution of Sabina przewalskii seedlings is random at treeline ecotone and between “random” and “even” forest closed forest． 3．Correlation tests of seedling population and seed bank at different soil layers indicated that the emergents were strongly correlated to seed bank at surface layer while the number of two-year seedlings was significantly correlated to the seed bank at the bottom of soil layer, indicating that germination mainly occurs at the soil surface while the middle or bottom layer was the reserve for non-germination or dead seeds. It can thus be postulated that Abies faxoniana soil seed bank is of seasonal transient type. By contrast, the soil seed bank of Sabina przewalskii is of persistent type and the soil seeds and seedlings of this species occurred more frequently near the islands of adult trees. 4．A good many soil seeds of both tree species were found near the treeline ecotone and above at N- and S-aspects. A few young seedlings were found above the Abies treeline. Investigation of five altitudinal transects respectively on N- and S-aspects indicated that Abies faxoniana has a more complete age structure than the stands of Sabina przewalskii. The age of firs decreased from closed forest to the upper limit of treeline, which suggests that the Abies treeline is advancing to higher altitude. While on the south aspect, only few Sabina przewalskii soil seeds and nearly no seedlings were found above the treeline ecotone. The stands exhibit extremely great difference in diameter classes with significantly incomplete age structure. This would lead to two possible results for the treelines: maintaining an equilibrium state at the current position or degenerating. But more studies should be carried out at longer time scales or larger spatial scales to understand whether the Sabina treeline is degenerating.

The equation of state study in UU collisions at CSR, Lanzhou

The cooling storage ring, to be built at Lanzhou, will be able to deliver heavy ion beams up to uranium up to 0.52 GeV/u. It is expected to make considerable contribution to nuclear EOS study in the high net baryon-density region. With a relativistic transport model, we performed simulations for U+U collisions with different orientations. It is shown that by combining the forward neutron multiplicity and an event-wise elliptic flow selection, it is possible to identify the tip - tip and body - body head-on collisions. The effective identification of these two extreme configurations will allow us to study the EOS at the highest baryon density in the U+U collisions.

Effect of stocking density on growth, settlement and survival of clam larvae, Meretrix meretrix

To determine the optimal larval density for hatchery culture of the clam Meretrix meretrix, experiments with stocking densities of 5, 10, 20, 40 and 60 larvae ml(-1) were designed, which included the developmental stages from D-veliger to 8 days postsettlement. Shell length, settlement time and survival rate of the larvae were recorded. Results showed that, at each sampling time, larvae reared at the highest density had the smallest mean size, whereas larvae reared at the lowest density had the largest mean size. Statistical differences in mean shell length at different stocking densities appeared from day 2, and greater differences occurred with increased culture time. Specific growth rate (SGR) in the rapid growing stage (day 0-3) was negatively correlated with density; however, no correlation was found between SGR and density in the slow growing stage (days 3-7). Settlement time was prolonged and shell length of settled larvae decreased as density increased. However, larval survival rate (74.8-79.1%) was independent of stocking density. Results showed that a high stocking density, in the designated range, is feasible for larval culture of the clam M. meretrix. However, for large-scale culture, in the interest of costs and safety, a stocking density of 10-20 larvae ml(-1) is recommended. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Laser technology - Measuring huge magnetic fields

Huge magnetic fields are predicted1–4 to exist in the high-density region of plasmas produced during intense laser–matter interaction, near the criticaldensity surface where most laser absorption occurs, but until now these fields have never been measured. By using pulses focused to extreme intensities to investigate laser–plasma interactions5, we have been able to record the highest magnetic fields ever produced in a laboratory – over 340 megagauss – by polarimetry measurements of self-generated laser harmonics.

Three dimensional number density mapping in the plume of a low temperature laser ablated magnesium plasma

Simultaneous optical absorption and laser-induced fluorescence measurements have been used to map the three-dimensional number densities of ground-state ions and neutrals within a low-temperature KrF laser-produced magnesium plasma expanding into vacuum. Data is reported for the symmetry plane of the plasma, which includes the laser interaction point at a delay of 1 μs after the ∼30 ns KrF laser ablation pulse and for a laser fluence of 2 J cm−2 on target. The number density distributions of ion and neutral species within this plane indicate that two distinct regions exist within the plume; one is a fast component containing ions and neutrals at maximum densities of ∼3×1013 cm−3 and ∼4×1012 cm−3, respectively and the second is a high-density region containing slow neutral species, at densities up to ∼1×1015 cm−3.