Extrapolation of zircon fission-track annealing models

One of the purposes of this study is to give further constraints on the temperature range of the zircon partial annealing zone over a geological time scale using data from borehole zircon samples, which have experienced stable temperatures for ∼1 Ma. In this way, the extrapolation problem is explicitly addressed by fitting the zircon annealing models with geological timescale data. Several empirical model formulations have been proposed to perform these calibrations and have been compared in this work. The basic form proposed for annealing models is the Arrhenius-type model. There are other annealing models, that are based on the same general formulation. These empirical model equations have been preferred due to the great number of phenomena from track formation to chemical etching that are not well understood. However, there are two other models, which try to establish a direct correlation between their parameters and the related phenomena. To compare the response of the different annealing models, thermal indexes, such as closure temperature, total annealing temperature and the partial annealing zone, have been calculated and compared with field evidence. After comparing the different models, it was concluded that the fanning curvilinear models yield the best agreement between predicted index temperatures and field evidence. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Method of determining the coefficient of storage from straight-line plots without extrapolation /

Mode of access: Internet.

Survival Extrapolation In The Presence Of Cause Specific Hazards.

Health economic evaluations require estimates of expected survival from patients receiving different interventions, often over a lifetime. However, data on the patients of interest are typically only available for a much shorter follow-up time, from randomised trials or cohorts. Previous work showed how to use general population mortality to improve extrapolations of the short-term data, assuming a constant additive or multiplicative effect on the hazards for all-cause mortality for study patients relative to the general population. A more plausible assumption may be a constant effect on the hazard for the specific cause of death targeted by the treatments. To address this problem, we use independent parametric survival models for cause-specific mortality among the general population. Because causes of death are unobserved for the patients of interest, a polyhazard model is used to express their all-cause mortality as a sum of latent cause-specific hazards. Assuming proportional cause-specific hazards between the general and study populations then allows us to extrapolate mortality of the patients of interest to the long term. A Bayesian framework is used to jointly model all sources of data. By simulation, we show that ignoring cause-specific hazards leads to biased estimates of mean survival when the proportion of deaths due to the cause of interest changes through time. The methods are applied to an evaluation of implantable cardioverter defibrillators for the prevention of sudden cardiac death among patients with cardiac arrhythmia. After accounting for cause-specific mortality, substantial differences are seen in estimates of life years gained from implantable cardioverter defibrillators.

Coexistence of forest and savanna in an Amazonian area from a geological perspective

Question: How can the coexistence of savanna and forest in Amazonian areas with relatively uniform climates be explained? Location: Eastern Marajo Island, northeast Amazonia, Brazil. Methods: The study integrated floristic analysis, terrain morphology, sedimentology and delta(13)C of soil organic matter. Floristic analysis involved rapid ecological assessment of 33 sites, determination of occurrence, specific richness, hierarchical distribution and matrix of floristic similarity between paired vegetation types. Terrain characterization was based on analysis of Landsat images using 4(R), 5(G) and 7(B) composition and digital elevation model (DEM). Sedimentology involved field descriptions of surface and core sediments. Finally, radiocarbon dating and analysis of delta(13)C of soil profile organic matter and natural ecotone forest-savanna was undertaken. Results: Slight tectonic subsidence in eastern Marajo Island favours seasonal flooding, making it unsuitable for forest growth. However, this area displays slightly convex-up, sinuous morphologies related to paleochannels, covered by forest. Terra-firme lowland forests are expanding from west to east, preferentially occupying paleochannels and replacing savanna. Slack, running water during channel abandonment leads to disappearance of varzea/gallery forest at channel margins. Long-abandoned channels sustain continuous terra-firme forests, because of longer times for more species to establish. Recently abandoned channels have had less time to become sites for widespread tree development, and are either not vegetated or covered by savanna. Conclusion: Landforms in eastern Marajo Island reflect changes in the physical environment due to reactivation of tectonic faults during the latest Quaternary. This promoted a dynamic history of channel abandonment, which controlled a set of interrelated parameters (soil type, topography, hydrology) that determined species location. Inclusion of a geological perspective for paleoenvironmental reconstruction can increase understanding of plant distribution in Amazonia.

Effects of geological inhomogeneity on high Rayleigh number steady state heat and mass transfer in fluid-saturated porous media heated from below

A parametric study is carried out to investigate how geological inhomogeneity affects the pore-fluid convective flow field, the temperature distribution, and the mass concentration distribution in a fluid-saturated porous medium. The related numerical results have demonstrated that (1) the effects of both medium permeability inhomogeneity and medium thermal conductivity inhomogeneity are significant on the pore-fluid convective flow and the species concentration distribution in the porous medium; (2) the effect of medium thermal conductivity inhomogeneity is dramatic on the temperature distribution in the porous medium, but the effect of medium permeability inhomogeneity on the temperature distribution may be considerable, depending on the Rayleigh number involved in the analysis; (3) if the coupling effect between pore-fluid flow and mass transport is weak, the effect of the Lewis number is negligible on the pore-fluid convective flow and temperature distribution, hut it is significant on the species concentration distribution in the medium.

Factors controlling the origin of gas in Australian Bowen Basin coals

Open system pyrolysis (heating rate 10 degrees C/min) of coal maturity (vitrinite reflectance, VR) sequence (0.5%, 0.8% and 1.4% VR) demonstrates that there are two stages of thermogenic methane generation from Bowen Basin coals. The first and major stage shows a steady increase in methane generation maximising at 570 degrees C, corresponding to a VR of 2-2.5%. This is followed by a less intense methane generation which has not as yet maximised by 800 degrees C (equivalent to VR of 5%). Heavier (C2+) hydrocarbons are generated up to 570 degrees C after which only the C-1 (CH4, CO and CO2) gases are produced. The main phase of heavy hydrocarbon generation occurs between 420 and 510 degrees C. Over this temperature range,methane generation accounts for only a minor component, whereas the wet gases (C-2-C-5) are either in equal abundance or are more abundant by a factor of two than the liquid hydrocarbons. The yields of non-hydrocarbon gases CO2 and CO are greater then methane during the early stages of gas generation from an immature coal, subordinate to methane during the main phase of methane generation after which they are again dominant. Compositional data for desorbed and produced coal seam gases from the Bowen show that CO2 and wet gases are a minor component. This discrepancy between the proportion of wet gas components produced during open system pyrolysis and that observed in naturally matured coals may be the result of preferential migration of wet gas components, by dilution of methane generated during secondary cracking of bitumen, or kinetic effects associated with different activations for production of individual hydrocarbon gases. Extrapolation of results of artificial pyrolysis of the main organic components in coal to geological significant heating rates suggests that isotopically light methane to delta(13)C of -50 parts per thousand can be generated. Carbon isotope depletions in C-13 are further enhanced, however, as a result of trapping of gases over selected rank levels (instantaneous generation) which is a probable explanation for the range of delta(13)C values we have recorded in methane desorbed from Bowen Basin coals (-51 +/- 9 parts per thousand). Pervasive carbonate-rich veins in Bowen Basin coals are the product of magmatism-related hydrothermal activity. Furthermore, the pyrolysis results suggest an additional organic carbon source front CO2 released at any stage during the maturation history could mix in varying proportions with CO2 from the other sources. This interpretation is supported by C and O isotopic ratios, of carbonates that indicate mixing between magmatic and meteoric fluids. Also, the steep slope of the C and O isotope correlation trend suggests that the carbonates were deposited over a very narrow temperature interval basin-wide, or at relatively high temperatures (i.e., greater than 150 degrees C) where mineral-fluid oxygen isotope fractionations are small. These temperatures are high enough for catagenic production of methane and higher hydrocarbons from the coal and coal-derived bitumen. The results suggests that a combination of thermogenic generation of methane and thermodynamic processes associated with CH4/CO2 equilibria are the two most important factors that control the primary isotope and molecular composition of coal seam gases in the Bowen Basin. Biological process are regionally subordinate but may be locally significant. (C) 1998 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Finite element analysis of flow patterns near geological lenses in hydrodynamic and hydrothermal systems

We use theoretical and numerical methods to investigate the general pore-fluid flow patterns near geological lenses in hydrodynamic and hydrothermal systems respectively. Analytical solutions have been rigorously derived for the pore-fluid velocity, stream function and excess pore-fluid pressure near a circular lens in a hydrodynamic system. These analytical solutions provide not only a better understanding of the physics behind the problem, but also a valuable benchmark solution for validating any numerical method. Since a geological lens is surrounded by a medium of large extent in nature and the finite element method is efficient at modelling only media of finite size, the determination of the size of the computational domain of a finite element model, which is often overlooked by numerical analysts, is very important in order to ensure both the efficiency of the method and the accuracy of the numerical solution obtained. To highlight this issue, we use the derived analytical solutions to deduce a rigorous mathematical formula for designing the computational domain size of a finite element model. The proposed mathematical formula has indicated that, no matter how fine the mesh or how high the order of elements, the desired accuracy of a finite element solution for pore-fluid flow near a geological lens cannot be achieved unless the size of the finite element model is determined appropriately. Once the finite element computational model has been appropriately designed and validated in a hydrodynamic system, it is used to examine general pore-fluid flow patterns near geological lenses in hydrothermal systems. Some interesting conclusions on the behaviour of geological lenses in hydrodynamic and hydrothermal systems have been reached through the analytical and numerical analyses carried out in this paper.

Computer simulations of coupled problems in geological and geochemical systems

The finite element method is used to simulate coupled problems, which describe the related physical and chemical processes of ore body formation and mineralization, in geological and geochemical systems. The main purpose of this paper is to illustrate some simulation results for different types of modelling problems in pore-fluid saturated rock masses. The aims of the simulation results presented in this paper are: (1) getting a better understanding of the processes and mechanisms of ore body formation and mineralization in the upper crust of the Earth; (2) demonstrating the usefulness and applicability of the finite element method in dealing with a wide range of coupled problems in geological and geochemical systems; (3) qualitatively establishing a set of showcase problems, against which any numerical method and computer package can be reasonably validated. (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

Convective instability of 3-D fluid-saturated geological fault zones heated from below

We conduct a theoretical analysis to investigate the convective instability of 3-D fluid-saturated geological fault zones when they are heated uniformly from below. In particular, we have derived exact analytical solutions for the critical Rayleigh numbers of different convective flow structures. Using these critical Rayleigh numbers, three interesting convective flow structures have been identified in a geological fault zone system. It has been recognized that the critical Rayleigh numbers of the system have a minimum value only for the fault zone of infinite length, in which the corresponding convective flow structure is a 2-D slender-circle flow. However, if the length of the fault zone is finite, the convective flow in the system must be 3-D. Even if the length of the fault zone is infinite, since the minimum critical Rayleigh number for the 2-D slender-circle flow structure is so close to that for the 3-D convective flow structure, the system may have almost the same chance to pick up the 3-D convective flow structures. Also, because the convection modes are so close for the 3-D convective flow structures, the convective flow may evolve into the 3-D finger-like structures, especially for the case of the fault thickness to height ratio approaching zero. This understanding demonstrates the beautiful aspects of the present analytical solution for the convective instability of 3-D geological fault zones, because the present analytical solution is valid for any value of the ratio of the fault height to thickness. Using the present analytical solution, the conditions, under which different convective flow structures may take place, can be easily determined.

Double diffusion-driven convective instability of three-dimensional fluid-saturated geological fault zones heated from below

We conduct a theoretical analysis to investigate the double diffusion-driven convective instability of three-dimensional fluid-saturated geological fault zones when they are heated uniformly from below. The fault zone is assumed to be more permeable than its surrounding rocks. In particular, we have derived exact analytical solutions to the total critical Rayleigh numbers of the double diffusion-driven convective flow. Using the corresponding total critical Rayleigh numbers, the double diffusion-driven convective instability of a fluid-saturated three-dimensional geological fault zone system has been investigated. The related theoretical analysis demonstrates that: (1) The relative higher concentration of the chemical species at the top of the three-dimensional geological fault zone system can destabilize the convective flow of the system, while the relative lower concentration of the chemical species at the top of the three-dimensional geological fault zone system can stabilize the convective flow of the system. (2) The double diffusion-driven convective flow modes of the three-dimensional geological fault zone system are very close each other and therefore, the system may have the similar chance to pick up different double diffusion-driven convective flow modes, especially in the case of the fault thickness to height ratio approaching 0. (3) The significant influence of the chemical species diffusion on the convective instability of the three-dimensional geological fault zone system implies that the seawater intrusion into the surface of the Earth is a potential mechanism to trigger the convective flow in the shallow three-dimensional geological fault zone system.

Numerical simulation of double-diffusion driven convective flow and rock alteration in three-dimensional fluid-saturated geological fault zones

Numerical methods are used to simulate the double-diffusion driven convective pore-fluid flow and rock alteration in three-dimensional fluid-saturated geological fault zones. The double diffusion is caused by a combination of both the positive upward temperature gradient and the positive downward salinity concentration gradient within a three-dimensional fluid-saturated geological fault zone, which is assumed to be more permeable than its surrounding rocks. In order to ensure the physical meaningfulness of the obtained numerical solutions, the numerical method used in this study is validated by a benchmark problem, for which the analytical solution to the critical Rayleigh number of the system is available. The theoretical value of the critical Rayleigh number of a three-dimensional fluid-saturated geological fault zone system can be used to judge whether or not the double-diffusion driven convective pore-fluid flow can take place within the system. After the possibility of triggering the double-diffusion driven convective pore-fluid flow is theoretically validated for the numerical model of a three-dimensional fluid-saturated geological fault zone system, the corresponding numerical solutions for the convective flow and temperature are directly coupled with a geochemical system. Through the numerical simulation of the coupled system between the convective fluid flow, heat transfer, mass transport and chemical reactions, we have investigated the effect of the double-diffusion driven convective pore-fluid flow on the rock alteration, which is the direct consequence of mineral redistribution due to its dissolution, transportation and precipitation, within the three-dimensional fluid-saturated geological fault zone system. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Extrapolation from ten sections can make CT-based quantification of lung aeration more practicable

Clinical applications of quantitative computed tomography (qCT) in patients with pulmonary opacifications are hindered by the radiation exposure and by the arduous manual image processing. We hypothesized that extrapolation from only ten thoracic CT sections will provide reliable information on the aeration of the entire lung. CTs of 72 patients with normal and 85 patients with opacified lungs were studied retrospectively. Volumes and masses of the lung and its differently aerated compartments were obtained from all CT sections. Then only the most cranial and caudal sections and a further eight evenly spaced sections between them were selected. The results from these ten sections were extrapolated to the entire lung. The agreement between both methods was assessed with Bland-Altman plots. Median (range) total lung volume and mass were 3,738 (1,311-6,768) ml and 957 (545-3,019) g, the corresponding bias (limits of agreement) were 26 (-42 to 95) ml and 8 (-21 to 38) g, respectively. The median volumes (range) of differently aerated compartments (percentage of total lung volume) were 1 (0-54)% for the nonaerated, 5 (1-44)% for the poorly aerated, 85 (28-98)% for the normally aerated, and 4 (0-48)% for the hyperaerated subvolume. The agreement between the extrapolated results and those from all CT sections was excellent. All bias values were below 1% of the total lung volume or mass, the limits of agreement never exceeded +/- 2%. The extrapolation method can reduce radiation exposure and shorten the time required for qCT analysis of lung aeration.