Integrated management systems as complex adaptive systems

It is a difficult task to avoid the “smart systems” topic when discussing smart prevention and, similarly, it is a difficult task to address smart systems without focusing their ability to learn. Following the same line of thought, in the current reality, it seems a Herculean task (or an irreparable omission) to approach the topic of certified occupational health and safety management systems (OHSMS) without discussing the integrated management systems (IMSs). The available data suggest that seldom are the OHSMS operating as the single management system (MS) in a company so, any statement concerning OHSMS should mainly be interpreted from an integrated perspective. A major distinction between generic systems can be drawn between those that learn, i.e., those systems that have “memory” and those that have not. These former systems are often depicted as adaptive since they take into account past events to deal with novel, similar and future events modifying their structure to enable success in its environment. Often, these systems, present a nonlinear behavior and a huge uncertainty related to the forecasting of some events. This paper seeks to portray, for the first time as we were able to find out, the IMSs as complex adaptive systems (CASs) by listing their properties and dissecting the features that enable them to evolve and self-organize in order to, holistically, fulfil the requirements from different stakeholders and thus thrive by assuring the successful sustainability of a company. Based on the revision of literature carried out, this is the first time that IMSs are pointed out as CASs which may develop fruitful synergies both for the MSs and for CASs communities. By performing a thorough revision of literature and based on some concepts embedded in the “DNA” of the subsystems implementation standards it is intended, specifically, to identify, determine and discuss the properties of a generic IMS that should be considered to classify it as a CAS.

Generic system for human-computer gesture interaction

Hand gestures are a powerful way for human communication, with lots of potential applications in the area of human computer interaction. Vision-based hand gesture recognition techniques have many proven advantages compared with traditional devices, giving users a simpler and more natural way to communicate with electronic devices. This work proposes a generic system architecture based in computer vision and machine learning, able to be used with any interface for humancomputer interaction. The proposed solution is mainly composed of three modules: a pre-processing and hand segmentation module, a static gesture interface module and a dynamic gesture interface module. The experiments showed that the core of vision-based interaction systems can be the same for all applications and thus facilitate the implementation. In order to test the proposed solutions, three prototypes were implemented. For hand posture recognition, a SVM model was trained and used, able to achieve a final accuracy of 99.4%. For dynamic gestures, an HMM model was trained for each gesture that the system could recognize with a final average accuracy of 93.7%. The proposed solution as the advantage of being generic enough with the trained models able to work in real-time, allowing its application in a wide range of human-machine applications.

Modelización de series temporales complejas: de las redes de telecomunicación a los mercados financieros

Este trabajo aborda el problema de modelizar sistemas din´amicos reales a partir del estudio de sus series temporales, usando una formulaci´on est´andar que pretende ser una abstracci´on universal de los sistemas din´amicos, independientemente de su naturaleza determinista, estoc´astica o h´ıbrida. Se parte de modelizaciones separadas de sistemas deterministas por un lado y estoc´asticos por otro, para converger finalmente en un modelo h´ıbrido que permite estudiar sistemas gen´ericos mixtos, esto es, que presentan una combinaci´on de comportamiento determinista y aleatorio. Este modelo consta de dos componentes, uno determinista consistente en una ecuaci´on en diferencias, obtenida a partir de un estudio de autocorrelaci´on, y otro estoc´astico que modeliza el error cometido por el primero. El componente estoc´astico es un generador universal de distribuciones de probabilidad, basado en un proceso compuesto de variables aleatorias, uniformemente distribuidas en un intervalo variable en el tiempo. Este generador universal es deducido en la tesis a partir de una nueva teor´ıa sobre la oferta y la demanda de un recurso gen´erico. El modelo resultante puede formularse conceptualmente como una entidad con tres elementos fundamentales: un motor generador de din´amica determinista, una fuente interna de ruido generadora de incertidumbre y una exposici´on al entorno que representa las interacciones del sistema real con el mundo exterior. En las aplicaciones estos tres elementos se ajustan en base al hist´orico de las series temporales del sistema din´amico. Una vez ajustados sus componentes, el modelo se comporta de una forma adaptativa tomando como inputs los nuevos valores de las series temporales del sistema y calculando predicciones sobre su comportamiento futuro. Cada predicci´on se presenta como un intervalo dentro del cual cualquier valor es equipro- bable, teniendo probabilidad nula cualquier valor externo al intervalo. De esta forma el modelo computa el comportamiento futuro y su nivel de incertidumbre en base al estado actual del sistema. Se ha aplicado el modelo en esta tesis a sistemas muy diferentes mostrando ser muy flexible para afrontar el estudio de campos de naturaleza dispar. El intercambio de tr´afico telef´onico entre operadores de telefon´ıa, la evoluci´on de mercados financieros y el flujo de informaci´on entre servidores de Internet son estudiados en profundidad en la tesis. Todos estos sistemas son modelizados de forma exitosa con un mismo lenguaje, a pesar de tratarse de sistemas f´ısicos totalmente distintos. El estudio de las redes de telefon´ıa muestra que los patrones de tr´afico telef´onico presentan una fuerte pseudo-periodicidad semanal contaminada con una gran cantidad de ruido, sobre todo en el caso de llamadas internacionales. El estudio de los mercados financieros muestra por su parte que la naturaleza fundamental de ´estos es aleatoria con un rango de comportamiento relativamente acotado. Una parte de la tesis se dedica a explicar algunas de las manifestaciones emp´ıricas m´as importantes en los mercados financieros como son los “fat tails”, “power laws” y “volatility clustering”. Por ´ultimo se demuestra que la comunicaci´on entre servidores de Internet tiene, al igual que los mercados financieros, una componente subyacente totalmente estoc´astica pero de comportamiento bastante “d´ocil”, siendo esta docilidad m´as acusada a medida que aumenta la distancia entre servidores. Dos aspectos son destacables en el modelo, su adaptabilidad y su universalidad. El primero es debido a que, una vez ajustados los par´ametros generales, el modelo se “alimenta” de los valores observables del sistema y es capaz de calcular con ellos comportamientos futuros. A pesar de tener unos par´ametros fijos, la variabilidad en los observables que sirven de input al modelo llevan a una gran riqueza de ouputs posibles. El segundo aspecto se debe a la formulaci´on gen´erica del modelo h´ıbrido y a que sus par´ametros se ajustan en base a manifestaciones externas del sistema en estudio, y no en base a sus caracter´ısticas f´ısicas. Estos factores hacen que el modelo pueda utilizarse en gran variedad de campos. Por ´ultimo, la tesis propone en su parte final otros campos donde se han obtenido ´exitos preliminares muy prometedores como son la modelizaci´on del riesgo financiero, los algoritmos de routing en redes de telecomunicaci´on y el cambio clim´atico. Abstract This work faces the problem of modeling dynamical systems based on the study of its time series, by using a standard language that aims to be an universal abstraction of dynamical systems, irrespective of their deterministic, stochastic or hybrid nature. Deterministic and stochastic models are developed separately to be merged subsequently into a hybrid model, which allows the study of generic systems, that is to say, those having both deterministic and random behavior. This model is a combination of two different components. One of them is deterministic and consisting in an equation in differences derived from an auto-correlation study and the other is stochastic and models the errors made by the deterministic one. The stochastic component is an universal generator of probability distributions based on a process consisting in random variables distributed uniformly within an interval varying in time. This universal generator is derived in the thesis from a new theory of offer and demand for a generic resource. The resulting model can be visualized as an entity with three fundamental elements: an engine generating deterministic dynamics, an internal source of noise generating uncertainty and an exposure to the environment which depicts the interactions between the real system and the external world. In the applications these three elements are adjusted to the history of the time series from the dynamical system. Once its components have been adjusted, the model behaves in an adaptive way by using the new time series values from the system as inputs and calculating predictions about its future behavior. Every prediction is provided as an interval, where any inner value is equally probable while all outer ones have null probability. So, the model computes the future behavior and its level of uncertainty based on the current state of the system. The model is applied to quite different systems in this thesis, showing to be very flexible when facing the study of fields with diverse nature. The exchange of traffic between telephony operators, the evolution of financial markets and the flow of information between servers on the Internet are deeply studied in this thesis. All these systems are successfully modeled by using the same “language”, in spite the fact that they are systems physically radically different. The study of telephony networks shows that the traffic patterns are strongly weekly pseudo-periodic but mixed with a great amount of noise, specially in the case of international calls. It is proved that the underlying nature of financial markets is random with a moderate range of variability. A part of this thesis is devoted to explain some of the most important empirical observations in financial markets, such as “fat tails”, “power laws” and “volatility clustering”. Finally it is proved that the communication between two servers on the Internet has, as in the case of financial markets, an underlaying random dynamics but with a narrow range of variability, being this lack of variability more marked as the distance between servers is increased. Two aspects of the model stand out as being the most important: its adaptability and its universality. The first one is due to the fact that once the general parameters have been adjusted , the model is “fed” on the observable manifestations of the system in order to calculate its future behavior. Despite the fact that the model has fixed parameters the variability in the observable manifestations of the system, which are used as inputs of the model, lead to a great variability in the possible outputs. The second aspect is due to the general “language” used in the formulation of the hybrid model and to the fact that its parameters are adjusted based on external manifestations of the system under study instead of its physical characteristics. These factors made the model suitable to be used in great variety of fields. Lastly, this thesis proposes other fields in which preliminary and promising results have been obtained, such as the modeling of financial risk, the development of routing algorithms for telecommunication networks and the assessment of climate change.

Fluctuations in and out of equilibrium: Thermalization, quantum measurements and Coulomb disorder

This purely theoretical thesis covers aspects of two contemporary research fields: the non-equilibrium dynamics in quantum systems and the electronic properties of three-dimensional topological insulators. In the first part we investigate the non-equilibrium dynamics in closed quantum systems. Thanks to recent technologies, especially from the field of ultracold quantum gases, it is possible to realize such systems in the laboratory. The focus is on the influence of hydrodynamic slow modes on the thermalization process. Generic systems in equilibrium, either classical or quantum, in equilibrium are described by thermodynamics. This is characterized by an ensemble of maximal entropy, but constrained by macroscopically conserved quantities. We will show that these conservation laws slow down thermalization and the final equilibrium state can be approached only algebraically in time. When the conservation laws are violated thermalization takes place exponential in time. In a different study we calculate probability distributions of projective quantum measurements. Newly developed quantum microscopes provide the opportunity to realize new measurement protocols which go far beyond the conventional measurements of correlation functions. The second part of this thesis is dedicated to a new class of materials known as three-dimensional topological insulators. Also here new experimental techniques have made it possible to fabricate these materials to a high enough quality that their topological nature is revealed. However, their transport properties are not fully understood yet. Motivated by unusual experimental results in the optical conductivity we have investigated the formation and thermal destruction of spatially localized electron- and hole-doped regions. These are caused by charged impurities which are introduced into the material in order to make the bulk insulating. Our theoretical results are in agreement with the experiment and can explain the results semi-quantitatively. Furthermore, we study emergent lengthscales in the bulk as well as close to the conducting surface.

A generic model for integration of Quality, Environment and Safety Management Systems

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to propose a generic model of Integrated Management System of Quality, Environment and Safety (IMS-QES) that can be adapted and progressively to assimilate various Management Systems, of which highlights: ISO 9001 for Quality; ISO 14001 for Environment; OHSAS 18001 for Occupational Health and Safety. Design/methodology/approach – The model was designed in the real environment of a Portuguese Organization and 160 employees were surveyed. The rate response was equal to 86 percent. The conceived model was implemented in a first phase for the integration of Quality, Environment and Safety Management Systems. Findings – Among the main findings of the survey the paper highlights: the elimination of conflicts between individual systems with resources optimization; creation of added value to the business by eliminating several types of wastes; the integrated management of sustainability components in a global market; the improvement of partnerships with suppliers of goods and services; reducing the number of internal and external audits. Originality/value – This case study is one of the first Portuguese empirical researches about IMS-QES and the paper believes that it can be useful in the creation of a Portuguese guideline for integration, namely the Quality Management Systems; Environmental Management Systems and Occupational Health and Safety Management Systems among others.

Generic super-exponential stability of invariant tori in Hamiltonian systems

In this article, we consider solutions starting close to some linearly stable invariant tori in an analytic Hamiltonian system and we prove results of stability for a super-exponentially long interval of time, under generic conditions. The proof combines classical Birkhoff normal forms and a new method to obtain generic Nekhoroshev estimates developed by the author and L. Niederman in another paper. We will mainly focus on the neighbourhood of elliptic fixed points, the other cases being completely similar.

Generic finite-size enhancement of pairing in mesoscopic Fermi systems

The finite-size-dependent enhancement of pairing in mesoscopic Fermi systems is studied under the assumption that the BCS approach is valid and that the two-body force is size independent. Different systems are investigated such as superconducting metallic grains and films as well as atomic nuclei. It is shown that the finite size enhancement of pairing in these systems is in part due to the presence of a surface which accounts quite well for the data of nuclei and explains a good fraction of the enhancement in Al grains.

Generic utilities in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients stratified according to different staging systems.

Background To determine generic utilities for Spanish chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients stratified by different classifications: GOLD 2007, GOLD 2013, GesEPOC 2012 and BODEx index. Methods Multicentre, observational, cross-sectional study. Patients were aged ≥40 years, with spirometrically confirmed COPD. Utility values were derived from EQ-5D-3 L. Means, standard deviations (SD), medians and interquartile ranges (IQR) were computed based on the different classifications. Differences in median utilities between groups were assessed by non-parametric tests. Results 346 patients were included, of which 85.5% were male with a mean age of 67.9 (SD = 9.7) years and a mean duration of COPD of 7.6 (SD = 5.8) years; 80.3% were ex-smokers and the mean smoking history was 54.2 (SD = 33.2) pack-years. Median utilities (IQR) by GOLD 2007 were 0.87 (0.22) for moderate; 0.80 (0.26) for severe and 0.67 (0.42) for very-severe patients (p < 0.001 for all comparisons). Median utilities by GOLD 2013 were group A: 1.0 (0.09); group B: 0.87 (0.13); group C: 1.0 (0.16); group D: 0.74 (0.29); comparisons were statistically significant (p < 0.001) except A vs C. Median utilities by GesEPOC phenotypes were 0.84 (0.33) for non exacerbator; 0.80 (0.26) for COPD-asthma overlap; 0.71 (0.62) for exacerbator with emphysema; 0.72 (0.57) for exacerbator with chronic bronchitis (p < 0.001). Comparisons between patients with or without exacerbations and between patients with COPD-asthma overlap and exacerbator with chronic bronchitis were statistically-significant (p < 0.001). Median utilities by BODEx index were: group 02: 0.89 (0.20); group 34: 0.80 (0.27); group 56: 0.67 (0.29); group 79: 0.41 (0.31). All comparisons were significant (p < 0.001) except between groups 34 and 56. Conclusion Irrespective of the classification used utilities were associated to disease severity. Some clinical phenotypes were associated with worse utilities, probably related to a higher frequency of exacerbations. GOLD 2007 guidelines and BODEx index better discriminated patients with a worse health status than GOLD 2013 guidelines, while GOLD 2013 guidelines were better able to identify a smaller group of patients with the best health.

Combining Generic Programming and Service-Oriented Architectures for the Effective and Timely Development of Complex e-Learning Systems

Peer-reviewed

Generic finite-size enhancement of pairing in mesoscopic Fermi systems

The finite-size-dependent enhancement of pairing in mesoscopic Fermi systems is studied under the assumption that the BCS approach is valid and that the two-body force is size independent. Different systems are investigated such as superconducting metallic grains and films as well as atomic nuclei. It is shown that the finite size enhancement of pairing in these systems is in part due to the presence of a surface which accounts quite well for the data of nuclei and explains a good fraction of the enhancement in Al grains.

EXPLOITING A GENERIC APPROACH TO CONSTRUCT COMPONENT-BASED SYSTEMS SOFTWARE IN LINUX ENVIRONMENTS

Component-based software engineering has recently emerged as a promising solution to the development of system-level software. Unfortunately, current approaches are limited to specific platforms and domains. This lack of generality is particularly problematic as it prevents knowledge sharing and generally drives development costs up. In the past, we have developed a generic approach to component-based software engineering for system-level software called OpenCom. In this paper, we present OpenComL an instantiation of OpenCom to Linux environments and show how it can be profiled to meet a range of system-level software in Linux environments. For this, we demonstrate its application to constructing a programmable router platform and a middleware for parallel environments.

Generic Bifurcations of Planar Filippov Systems via Geometric Singular Perturbations

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Generic bifurcation of refracted systems

In this article we discuss some qualitative and geometric aspects of non-smooth dynamical systems theory. Our goal is to study the diagram bifurcation of typical singularities that occur generically in one parameter families of certain piecewise smooth vector fields named Refracted Systems. Such systems has a codimension-one submanifold as its discontinuity set. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.

A generic persistence model for CLP systems (and two useful implementations)

This paper describes a model of persistence in (C)LP languages and two different and practically very useful ways to implement this model in current systems. The fundamental idea is that persistence is a characteristic of certain dynamic predicates (Le., those which encapsulate state). The main effect of declaring a predicate persistent is that the dynamic changes made to such predicates persist from one execution to the next one. After proposing a syntax for declaring persistent predicates, a simple, file-based implementation of the concept is presented and some examples shown. An additional implementation is presented which stores persistent predicates in an external datábase. The abstraction of the concept of persistence from its implementation allows developing applications which can store their persistent predicates alternatively in files or databases with only a few simple changes to a declaration stating the location and modality used for persistent storage. The paper presents the model, the implementation approach in both the cases of using files and relational databases, a number of optimizations of the process (using information obtained from static global analysis and goal clustering), and performance results from an implementation of these ideas.

A generic persistence model for CLP systems

This paper describes a model of persistence in (C)LP languages and two different and practically very useful ways to implement this model in current systems. The fundamental idea is that persistence is a characteristic of certain dynamic predicates (i.e., those which encapsulate state). The main effect of declaring a predicate persistent is that the dynamic changes made to such predicates persist from one execution to the next one. After proposing a syntax for declaring persistent predicates, a simple, file-based implementation of the concept is presented and some examples shown. An additional implementation is presented which stores persistent predicates in an external database. The abstraction of the concept of persistence from its implementation allows developing applications which can store their persistent predicates alternatively in files or databases with only a few simple changes to a declaration stating the location and modality used for persistent storage. The paper presents the model, the implementation approach in both the cases of using files and relational databases, a number of optimizations of the process (using information obtained from static global analysis and goal clustering), and performance results from an implementation of these ideas.