Describing seasonal variability in the distribution of daily effective temperatures for 1985-2009 compared to 1904-1984 for De Bilt, Holland

This paper proposes a method for describing the distribution of observed temperatures on any day of the year such that the distribution and summary statistics of interest derived from the distribution vary smoothly through the year. The method removes the noise inherent in calculating summary statistics directly from the data thus easing comparisons of distributions and summary statistics between different periods. The method is demonstrated using daily effective temperatures (DET) derived from observations of temperature and wind speed at De Bilt, Holland. Distributions and summary statistics are obtained from 1985 to 2009 and compared to the period 1904–1984. A two-stage process first obtains parameters of a theoretical probability distribution, in this case the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution, which describes the distribution of DET on any day of the year. Second, linear models describe seasonal variation in the parameters. Model predictions provide parameters of the GEV distribution, and therefore summary statistics, that vary smoothly through the year. There is evidence of an increasing mean temperature, a decrease in the variability in temperatures mainly in the winter and more positive skew, more warm days, in the summer. In the winter, the 2% point, the value below which 2% of observations are expected to fall, has risen by 1.2 °C, in the summer the 98% point has risen by 0.8 °C. Medians have risen by 1.1 and 0.9 °C in winter and summer, respectively. The method can be used to describe distributions of future climate projections and other climate variables. Further extensions to the methodology are suggested.

When can we expect extremely high surface temperatures?

In the Essence project a 17-member ensemble simulation of climate change in response to the SRES A1b scenario has been carried out using the ECHAM5/MPI-OM climate model. The relatively large size of the ensemble makes it possible to accurately investigate changes in extreme values of climate variables. Here we focus on the annual-maximum 2m-temperature and fit a Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution to the simulated values and investigate the development of the parameters of this distribution. Over most land areas both the location and the scale parameter increase. Consequently the 100-year return values increase faster than the average temperatures. A comparison of simulated 100-year return values for the present climate with observations (station data and reanalysis) shows that the ECHAM5/MPI-OM model, as well as other models, overestimates extreme temperature values. After correcting for this bias, it still shows values in excess of 50°C in Australia, India, the Middle East, North Africa, the Sahel and equatorial and subtropical South America at the end of the century.

Accessing extremes of mid-latitudinal wave activity: methodology and application

A statistical methodology is proposed and tested for the analysis of extreme values of atmospheric wave activity at mid-latitudes. The adopted methods are the classical block-maximum and peak over threshold, respectively based on the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution and the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD). Time-series of the ‘Wave Activity Index’ (WAI) and the ‘Baroclinic Activity Index’ (BAI) are computed from simulations of the General Circulation Model ECHAM4.6, which is run under perpetual January conditions. Both the GEV and the GPD analyses indicate that the extremes ofWAI and BAI areWeibull distributed, this corresponds to distributions with an upper bound. However, a remarkably large variability is found in the tails of such distributions; distinct simulations carried out under the same experimental setup provide sensibly different estimates of the 200-yr WAI return level. The consequences of this phenomenon in applications of the methodology to climate change studies are discussed. The atmospheric configurations characteristic of the maxima and minima of WAI and BAI are also examined.

A Spatial-Temporal Downscaling Approach To Construction Of Rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency Relations In The Context Of Climate Change

This paper proposes a spatial-temporal downscaling approach to construction of the intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) relations at a local site in the context of climate change and variability. More specifically, the proposed approach is based on a combination of a spatial downscaling method to link large-scale climate variables given by General Circulation Model (GCM) simulations with daily extreme precipitations at a site and a temporal downscaling procedure to describe the relationships between daily and sub-daily extreme precipitations based on the scaling General Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. The feasibility and accuracy of the suggested method were assessed using rainfall data available at eight stations in Quebec (Canada) for the 1961-2000 period and climate simulations under four different climate change scenarios provided by the Canadian (CGCM3) and UK (HadCM3) GCM models. Results of this application have indicated that it is feasible to link sub-daily extreme rainfalls at a local site with large-scale GCM-based daily climate predictors for the construction of the IDF relations for present (1961-1990) and future (2020s, 2050s, and 2080s) periods at a given site under different climate change scenarios. In addition, it was found that annual maximum rainfalls downscaled from the HadCM3 displayed a smaller change in the future, while those values estimated from the CGCM3 indicated a large increasing trend for future periods. This result has demonstrated the presence of high uncertainty in climate simulations provided by different GCMs. In summary, the proposed spatial-temporal downscaling method provided an essential tool for the estimation of extreme rainfalls that are required for various climate-related impact assessment studies for a given region.

Uncertainties In Future Projections Of Extreme Rainfall: The Role Of Climate Model, Emission Scenario And Randomness

Climate change has resulted in substantial variations in annual extreme rainfall quantiles in different durations and return periods. Predicting the future changes in extreme rainfall quantiles is essential for various water resources design, assessment, and decision making purposes. Current Predictions of future rainfall extremes, however, exhibit large uncertainties. According to extreme value theory, rainfall extremes are rather random variables, with changing distributions around different return periods; therefore there are uncertainties even under current climate conditions. Regarding future condition, our large-scale knowledge is obtained using global climate models, forced with certain emission scenarios. There are widely known deficiencies with climate models, particularly with respect to precipitation projections. There is also recognition of the limitations of emission scenarios in representing the future global change. Apart from these large-scale uncertainties, the downscaling methods also add uncertainty into estimates of future extreme rainfall when they convert the larger-scale projections into local scale. The aim of this research is to address these uncertainties in future projections of extreme rainfall of different durations and return periods. We plugged 3 emission scenarios with 2 global climate models and used LARS-WG, a well-known weather generator, to stochastically downscale daily climate models’ projections for the city of Saskatoon, Canada, by 2100. The downscaled projections were further disaggregated into hourly resolution using our new stochastic and non-parametric rainfall disaggregator. The extreme rainfall quantiles can be consequently identified for different durations (1-hour, 2-hour, 4-hour, 6-hour, 12-hour, 18-hour and 24-hour) and return periods (2-year, 10-year, 25-year, 50-year, 100-year) using Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. By providing multiple realizations of future rainfall, we attempt to measure the extent of total predictive uncertainty, which is contributed by climate models, emission scenarios, and downscaling/disaggregation procedures. The results show different proportions of these contributors in different durations and return periods.

Tropospheric scintillation with concurrent rain attenuation at 50 GHz in Madrid

Tropospheric scintillation can become a significant impairment in satellite communication systems, especially in those with low fade-margin. Moreover, fast amplitude fluctuations due to scintillation are even larger when rain is present on the propagation path. Few studies of scintillation during rain have been reported and the statistical characterization is still not totally clear. This paper presents experimental results on the relationship between scintillation and rain attenuation obtained from slant-path attenuation measurements at 50 GHz. The study is focused on the probability density function (PDF) of various scintillation parameters. It is shown that scintillation intensity, measured as the standard deviation of the amplitude fluctuations, increases with rain attenuation; in the range 1-10 dB this relationship can be expressed by power-law or linear equations. The PDFs of scintillation intensity conditioned to a given rain attenuation level are lognormal, while the overall long-term PDF is well fltted by a generalized extreme valué (GEV) distribution. The short-term PDFs of amplitude conditioned to a given intensity are normal, although skewness effects are observed for the strongest intensities. A procedure is given to derive numerically the overall PDF of scintillation amplitude using a combination of conditional PDFs and local statistics of rain attenuation.

Regional flood frequency analysis for Newfoundland and Labrador using the L-Moments index-flood method

The L-moments based index-flood procedure had been successfully applied for Regional Flood Frequency Analysis (RFFA) for the Island of Newfoundland in 2002 using data up to 1998. This thesis, however, considered both Labrador and the Island of Newfoundland using the L-Moments index-flood method with flood data up to 2013. For Labrador, the homogeneity test showed that Labrador can be treated as a single homogeneous region and the generalized extreme value (GEV) was found to be more robust than any other frequency distributions. The drainage area (DA) is the only significant variable for estimating the index-flood at ungauged sites in Labrador. In previous studies, the Island of Newfoundland has been considered as four homogeneous regions (A,B,C and D) as well as two Water Survey of Canada's Y and Z sub-regions. Homogeneous regions based on Y and Z was found to provide more accurate quantile estimates than those based on four homogeneous regions. Goodness-of-fit test results showed that the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is most suitable for the sub-regions; however, the three-parameter lognormal (LN3) gave a better performance in terms of robustness. The best fitting regional frequency distribution from 2002 has now been updated with the latest flood data, but quantile estimates with the new data were not very different from the previous study. Overall, in terms of quantile estimation, in both Labrador and the Island of Newfoundland, the index-flood procedure based on L-moments is highly recommended as it provided consistent and more accurate result than other techniques such as the regression on quantile technique that is currently used by the government.

On the statistics of transverse permeability of randomly distributed fibers

An RVE–based stochastic numerical model is used to calculate the permeability of randomly generated porous media at different values of the fiber volume fraction for the case of transverse flow in a unidirectional ply. Analysis of the numerical results shows that the permeability is not normally distributed. With the aim of proposing a new understanding on this particular topic, permeability data are fitted using both a mixture model and a unimodal distribution. Our findings suggest that permeability can be fitted well using a mixture model based on the lognormal and power law distributions. In case of a unimodal distribution, it is found, using the maximum-likelihood estimation method (MLE), that the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution represents the best fit. Finally, an expression of the permeability as a function of the fiber volume fraction based on the GEV distribution is discussed in light of the previous results.

Measurement of neutral mesons in p plus p collisions at root s=200 GeV and scaling properties of hadron production

The PHENIX experiment at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider has measured the invariant differential cross section for production of K(S)(0), omega, eta', and phi mesons in p + p collisions at root s 200 GeV. Measurements of omega and phi production in different decay channels give consistent results. New results for the omega are in agreement with previously published data and extend the measured p(T) coverage. The spectral shapes of all hadron transverse momentum distributions measured by PHENIX are well described by a Tsallis distribution functional form with only two parameters, n and T, determining the high-p(T) and characterizing the low-p(T) regions of the spectra, respectively. The values of these parameters are very similar for all analyzed meson spectra, but with a lower parameter T extracted for protons. The integrated invariant cross sections calculated from the fitted distributions are found to be consistent with existing measurements and with statistical model predictions.

Cross section and double helicity asymmetry for eta mesons and their comparison to pi(0) production in p plus p collisions at root s=200 GeV

Measurements of double-helicity asymmetries in inclusive hadron production in polarized p + p collisions are sensitive to helicity-dependent parton distribution functions, in particular, to the gluon helicity distribution, Delta g. This study focuses on the extraction of the double-helicity asymmetry in eta production ((p) over right arrow + (p) over right arrow -> eta + X), the eta cross section, and the eta/pi(0) cross section ratio. The cross section and ratio measurements provide essential input for the extraction of fragmentation functions that are needed to access the helicity-dependent parton distribution functions.

Measurement of transverse single-spin asymmetries for J/psi production in polarized p plus p collisions at root s=200 GeV

We report the first measurement of transverse single-spin asymmetries in J/psi production from transversely polarized p + p collisions at root s = 200 GeV with data taken by the PHENIX experiment in 2006 and 2008. The measurement was performed over the rapidity ranges 1.2 < vertical bar y vertical bar < 2.2 and vertical bar y vertical bar < 0.35 for transverse momenta up to 6 GeV/c. J/psi production at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider is dominated by processes involving initial-state gluons, and transverse single-spin asymmetries of the J/psi can provide access to gluon dynamics within the nucleon. Such asymmetries may also shed light on the long-standing question in QCD of the J/psi production mechanism. Asymmetries were obtained as a function of J/psi transverse momentum and Feynman-x, with a value of -0.086 +/- 0.026(stat) +/- 0.003(syst) in the forward region. This result suggests possible nonzero trigluon correlation functions in transversely polarized protons and, if well defined in this reaction, a nonzero gluon Sivers distribution function.

Measurement of Bottom Versus Charm as a Function of Transverse Momentum with Electron-Hadron Correlations in p plus p Collisions at s=200 GeV

The momentum distribution of electrons from semileptonic decays of charm and bottom quarks for midrapidity |y|< 0.35 in p+p collisions at s=200 GeV is measured by the PHENIX experiment at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider over the transverse momentum range 2 < p(T)< 7 GeV/c. The ratio of the yield of electrons from bottom to that from charm is presented. The ratio is determined using partial D/D -> e(+/-)K(-/+)X (K unidentified) reconstruction. It is found that the yield of electrons from bottom becomes significant above 4 GeV/c in p(T). A fixed-order-plus-next-to-leading-log perturbative quantum chromodynamics calculation agrees with the data within the theoretical and experimental uncertainties. The extracted total bottom production cross section at this energy is sigma(bb)=3.2(-1.1)(+1.2)(stat)(-1.3)(+1.4)(syst)mu b.

Dihadron azimuthal correlations in Au+Au collisions at root s(NN)=200 GeV

Azimuthal angle (Delta phi) correlations are presented for a broad range of transverse momentum (0.4 < p(T) < 10 GeV/c) and centrality (0-92%) selections for charged hadrons from dijets in Au+Au collisions at root s(NN) = 200 GeV. With increasing p(T), the away-side Delta phi distribution evolves from a broad and relatively flat shape to a concave shape, then to a convex shape. Comparisons with p + p data suggest that the away-side distribution can be divided into a partially suppressed ""head"" region centered at Delta phi similar to pi, and an enhanced ""shoulder"" region centered at Delta phi similar to pi +/- 1.1. The p(T) spectrum for the associated hadrons in the head region softens toward central collisions. The spectral slope for the shoulder region is independent of centrality and trigger p(T). The properties of the near-side distributions are also modified relative to those in p + p collisions, reflected by the broadening of the jet shape in Delta phi and Delta eta, and an enhancement of the per-trigger yield. However, these modifications seem to be limited to p(T)less than or similar to 4 GeV/c, above which both the hadron pair shape and per-trigger yield become similar to p + p collisions. These observations suggest that both the away- and near-side distributions contain a jet fragmentation component which dominates for p(T) greater than or similar to 5 GeV/c and a medium-induced component which is important for p(T) less than or similar to 4 GeV/c. We also quantify the role of jets at intermediate and low p(T) through the yield of jet-induced pairs in comparison with binary scaled p + p pair yield. The yield of jet-induced pairs is suppressed at high pair proxy energy (sum of the p(T) magnitudes of the two hadrons) and is enhanced at low pair proxy energy. The former is consistent with jet quenching; the latter is consistent with the enhancement of soft hadron pairs due to transport of lost energy to lower p(T).

Transverse momentum and centrality dependence of dihadron correlations in Au plus Au collisions at root s(NN)=200 GeV: Jet quenching and the response of partonic matter

Azimuthal angle (Delta phi) correlations are presented for charged hadrons from dijets for 0.4 < p(T)< 10 GeV/c in Au+Au collisions at root s(NN)=200 GeV. With increasing p(T), the away-side distribution evolves from a broad and relatively flat shape to a concave shape, then to a convex shape. Comparisons to p+p data suggest that the away-side can be divided into a partially suppressed ""head"" region centered at Delta phi similar to pi and an enhanced ""shoulder"" region centered at Delta phi similar to pi +/- 1.1. The p(T) spectrum for the head region softens toward central collisions, consistent with the onset of jet quenching. The spectral slope for the shoulder region is independent of centrality and trigger p(T), which offers constraints on energy transport mechanisms and suggests that it contains the medium response to energetic jets.

Measurement of the Parity-Violating Longitudinal Single-Spin Asymmetry for W(+/-) Boson Production in Polarized Proton-Proton Collisions at root s=500 GeV

We report the first measurement of the parity-violating single-spin asymmetries for midrapidity decay positrons and electrons from W(+) and W(-) boson production in longitudinally polarized proton-proton collisions at root s = 500 GeV by the STAR experiment at RHIC. The measured asymmetries, A(L)(W+) = -0.27 +/- 0.10(stat.) +/- 0.02(syst.) +/- 0.03(norm.) and A(L)(W-) = 0.14 +/- 0.19(stat.) +/- 0.02(syst.) +/- 0.01(norm.), are consistent with theory predictions, which are large and of opposite sign. These predictions are based on polarized quark and antiquark distribution functions constrained by polarized deep-inelastic scattering measurements.