The responsibility of futurists in strategic foresight - Hungarian examples

The Futures Studies Department at the Corvinus University of Budapest conducted a few strategic foresight projects at the beginning of the twenty-first century. The goals of two projects were to increase the regional competitiveness of two towns in Hungary; whereas, two other projects dealt with the long-term, 15- to 20- year-long, macro-development opportunities of Hungary. They focused on defining social trends that influence the long-termdecision-making environment of the regions and the country. The two types of experience made it possible to enhance strategic foresight by defining the role and responsibility of professional futurists and average, everyday people.

Competence foresight: linking the identification of HR competences and competence management alignment with business strategy

The objective of this study was to increase understanding of the link between the identification of required HR competences and competence management alignment with business strategy in a Finnish, global company employing over 8,000 people and about 100 HR professionals. This aim was approached by analyzing the data collected in focus group interviews using a grounded theory method and in parallel reviewing the literature of strategic human resource management, competence-based strategic management, strategy and foresight. The literature on competence management in different contexts dismisses in-depth discussions on the foresight process and individuals are often forgotten in strategic frameworks. However, corporate foresight helps in the detection of emerging opportunities for innovations and in the implementation of strategy. The empirical findings indicate a lack of strategic leadership and an alignment with HR and business. Accordingly, the most important HR competence areas identified were the need for increasing business understanding and enabling change. As a result, the study provided a holistic model for competence foresight, which introduces HR professionals as strategic change agents in the role of organizational futurists at the heart of the company: facilitating competence foresight and competence development on individual as well as organizational levels, resulting in an agile organization with increased business understanding, sensitive sensors and adaptive actions to enable change.

Now, Don’t Go Chasing Rabbits

The Ithaka US Faculty Survey 2012 (http://bit.ly/10NnQw9) is out, and by the time you read my blurb, it will have cobwebs on it, and the 2013 will be well on the way. So, why write about it at all? It’s always important to find out what people think of you, in this case libraries and their main clientele, faculty, even if what you find out may have to have a dozen qualifications surrounding it. Libraries and librarians are either on the cusp of something new and exciting, or on the edge of the abyss, soon to fall into oblivion, so finding out what people think should be important to us. So why not take a peek?

Education and Ideologies of the Knowledge Economy: Europe and the Politics of Emulation

The Austrian philosopher Ludwig Wittgenstein famously proposed a style of philosophy that was directed against certain pictures [bild] that tacitly direct our language and forms of life. His aim was to show the fly the way out of the fly bottle and to fight against the bewitchment of our intelligence by means of language: “A picture held us captive. And we could not get outside it, for it lay in our language and language seemed to repeat it to us inexorably” (Wittgenstein 1953, 115). In this context Wittgenstein is talking of philosophical pictures, deep metaphors that have structured our language but he does also use the term picture in other contexts (see Owen 2003, 83). I want to appeal to Wittgenstein in my use of the term ideology to refer to the way in which powerful underlying metaphors in neoclassical economics have a strong rhetorical and constitutive force at the level of public policy. Indeed, I am specifically speaking of the notion of ‘the performative’ in Wittgenstein and Austin. The notion of the knowledge economy has a prehistory in Hayek (1937; 1945) who founded the economics of knowledge in the 1930s, in Machlup (1962; 1970), who mapped the emerging employment shift to the US service economy in the early 1960s, and to sociologists Bell (1973) and Touraine (1974) who began to tease out the consequences of these changes for social structure in the post-industrial society in the early 1970s. The term has been taken up since by economists, sociologists, futurists and policy experts recently to explain the transition to the so-called ‘new economy’. It is not just a matter of noting these discursive strands in the genealogy of the ‘knowledge economy’ and related or cognate terms. We can also make a number of observations on the basis of this brief analysis. First, there has been a succession of terms like ‘postindustrial economy’, ‘information economy’, ‘knowledge economy’, ‘learning economy’, each with a set of related concepts emphasising its social, political, management or educational aspects. Often these literatures are not cross-threading and tend to focus on only one aspect of phenomena leading to classic dichotomies such as that between economy and society, knowledge and information. Second, these terms and their family concepts are discursive, historical and ideological products in the sense that they create their own meanings and often lead to constitutive effects at the level of policy. Third, while there is some empirical evidence to support claims concerning these terms, at the level of public policy these claims are empirically underdetermined and contain an integrating, visionary or futures component, which necessarily remains untested and is, perhaps, in principle untestable.

Alternative scenarios for Hungary for the year 2025

The paper presents how the Committee on Futures Research, within Section IX. of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences (HAS), sees the possible futures for Hungary for the year 2025, based on the expertise of Hungarian futurists and social scientists, including the opinions of younger generations. It offers insight to Hungarian society in 18 years from 2007, when the research began. In cooperation with experts coming from diverse scientific backgrounds and with those who feel responsibility for the future and are willing to act upon it, we need to continue discovering our horizon albeit in a different way and to embark on new roads. In summary, we need to change the HOW and the WHAT.

Theory and practice in the field of foresight

Purpose – The paper aims to explore the gap between theory and practice in foresight and to give some suggestions on how to reduce it. Design/methodology/approach – Analysis of practical foresight activities and suggestions are based on a literature review, the author's own research and practice in the field of foresight and futures studies, and her participation in the work of a European project (COST A22). Findings – Two different types of practical foresight activities have developed. One of them, the practice of foresight of critical futures studies (FCFS) is an application of a theory of futures studies. The other, termed here as praxis foresight (PF), has no theoretical basis and responds directly to practical needs. At present a gap can be perceived between theory and practice. PF distinguishes itself from the practice and theory of FCFS and narrows the construction space of futures. Neither FCFS nor PF deals with content issues of the outer world. Reducing the gap depends on renewal of joint discourses and research about experience of different practical foresight activities and manageability of complex dynamics in foresight. Production and feedback of self-reflective and reflective foresight knowledge could improve theory and practice. Originality/value – Contemporary practical foresight activities are analysed and suggestions to reduce the gap are developed in the context of the linkage between theory and practice. This paper is thought provoking for futurists, foresight managers and university researchers.

Changing attitudes to the future in Hungary

In the mid-1990s a theoretical definition of future orientation was elaborated by Hungarian futurists Nova´ ky, Hideg and Kappe´ ter to conduct empirical research on the capacity of human foresight under given historical conditions. Future orientation is a way human thinking is manifested, where thoughts are filled with preconceptions, imagination and expectations. Our research has shown that the following component parts characterise future orientation: thinking about the future, applying regular social techniques to limit its uncertainty, actions taken in the interest of the future, and expectations concerning the future. Based on these component parts the future orientation of Hungarian society was studied empirically in 1995 and in 2006. Comparative analysis of the findings of the two surveys is presented below.

Responsibility for the Future

Responsibility for the future can be closely linked to innovation and responsibility of entrepreneurship, nevertheless we are all responsible for our future. Since futurists have a special role in catalysing social changes and channelling actions for better futures, the present study analyses how the responsibility of futurists is seen in our times, characterised by great and far-reaching changes, and how this activity is enriched by elements of foresight. The responsibility of futurists lies in mapping out, communicating and implementing future alternatives. Futurists also have considerable responsibility to convince people that essential changes have to be accepted by the public.