Likelihood prediction for generalized linear mixed models under covariate uncertainty

This paper presents the techniques of likelihood prediction for the generalized linear mixed models. Methods of likelihood prediction is explained through a series of examples; from a classical one to more complicated ones. The examples show, in simple cases, that the likelihood prediction (LP) coincides with already known best frequentist practice such as the best linear unbiased predictor. The paper outlines a way to deal with the covariate uncertainty while producing predictive inference. Using a Poisson error-in-variable generalized linear model, it has been shown that in complicated cases LP produces better results than already know methods.

Future value based single assignment program representations and optimizations

An optimizing compiler internal representation fundamentally affects the clarity, efficiency and feasibility of optimization algorithms employed by the compiler. Static Single Assignment (SSA) as a state-of-the-art program representation has great advantages though still can be improved. This dissertation explores the domain of single assignment beyond SSA, and presents two novel program representations: Future Gated Single Assignment (FGSA) and Recursive Future Predicated Form (RFPF). Both FGSA and RFPF embed control flow and data flow information, enabling efficient traversal program information and thus leading to better and simpler optimizations. We introduce future value concept, the designing base of both FGSA and RFPF, which permits a consumer instruction to be encountered before the producer of its source operand(s) in a control flow setting. We show that FGSA is efficiently computable by using a series T1/T2/TR transformation, yielding an expected linear time algorithm for combining together the construction of the pruned single assignment form and live analysis for both reducible and irreducible graphs. As a result, the approach results in an average reduction of 7.7%, with a maximum of 67% in the number of gating functions compared to the pruned SSA form on the SPEC2000 benchmark suite. We present a solid and near optimal framework to perform inverse transformation from single assignment programs. We demonstrate the importance of unrestricted code motion and present RFPF. We develop algorithms which enable instruction movement in acyclic, as well as cyclic regions, and show the ease to perform optimizations such as Partial Redundancy Elimination on RFPF.

Prediction of moisture, calorific value, ash and carbon content of two dedicated bioenergy crops using near-infrared spectroscopy

The potential of near infrared spectroscopy in conjunction with partial least squares regression to predict Miscanthus xgiganteus and short rotation coppice willow quality indices was examined. Moisture, calorific value, ash and carbon content were predicted with a root mean square error of cross validation of 0.90% (R2 = 0.99), 0.13 MJ/kg (R2 = 0.99), 0.42% (R2 = 0.58), and 0.57% (R2 = 0.88), respectively. The moisture and calorific value prediction models had excellent accuracy while the carbon and ash models were fair and poor, respectively. The results indicate that near infrared spectroscopy has the potential to predict quality indices of dedicated energy crops, however the models must be further validated on a wider range of samples prior to implementation. The utilization of such models would assist in the optimal use of the feedstock based on its biomass properties.

The role of Bluetooth technology in transforming the value network of ICT industry

Tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli selvittää miten Bluetooth-teknologia voi vaikuttaa ICT-alan arvoverkkoon ja alan toimijoiden rooleihin. Tutkimuksessa käytettiin kvalitatiivisia menetelmiä ja siinä oli piirteitä tulevaisuuden tutkimuksesta, koska myös eksploratiivisia menetelmiä käytettiin. Tutkimus perustui laajalti kirjallisuuteen ja artikkeleihin, joiden perusteella muodostettiin skenaarioita ICT-alan tulevaisuuden arvoverkosta. Tutkimus sisälsi myös empiirisen osion, jossa järjestettiin kaksi ryhmäkeskustelua, joissa alan toimijat keskustelivat muodostetuista skenaarioista sekä yleisemmin Bluetoothin vaikutuksista arvoverkkoon. Tutkimuksen mukaan ICT-alan arvoverkko tulevaisuudessa on rakenteeltaan strateginen arvoverkko, jota johtaa eri toimija erilaisissa markkinatilanteissa. Verkon strateginen keskus voi muuttua ajan kuluessa kun Bluetoothin sovelluskohteet lisääntyvät ja se voi vaihdella markkina-alueesta toiseen. Bluetooth luo uuden kommunikaatiokanavan nykyisten rinnalle ja se voi paikallisesti korvata nykyisten kanavien käytön tiedon siirrossa. Bluetooth voi synnyttää lukuisia uusia liiketoimintamahdollisuuksia ja sen avulla voidaan tuottaa lisäarvopalveluita. Suurimpien muutosten voidaan olettaa koskevan teleoperaattoreiden ja sisällöntuottajien liiketoimintaa.

Value-based Reference Marketing in a Small Process Industry Software and Service Company

This master’s thesis was done for a small company, Vipetec Oy, which offers specialized technological services for companies mainly in forest industry. The study was initiated partly because the company wants to expand its customer base to a new industry. There were two goals connected to each other. First was to find out how much and what kind of value current customers have realized from ATA Process Event Library, one of the products that the company offers. Second was to determine the best way to present this value and its implications for future value potential to both current and potential customers. ATA helps to make grade and product changes, starting after machine downtime, and recovery from production break faster for customers. All three events sometimes occur in production line. The faster operation results to savings in time and material. In addition to ATA Vipetec also offers other services related to development of automation and optimization of controls. Theoretical part concentrates on the concept of value, how it can be delivered to customers, and what kind of risk customer faces in industrial purchasing. Also the function of reference marketing towards customers is discussed. In the empirical part the realized value for existing customers is evaluated based on both numerical data and interviews. There’s also a brief case study about one customer. After that the value-based reference marketing for a target industry is examined through interviews of these potential customers. Finally answers to the research questions are stated and compared also to the theoretical knowledge about the subject. Results show that those customers’ machines which use the full service concept of ATA usually are able to save more time and material than the machines which use only some features of the product. Interviews indicated that sales arguments which focus on improved competitive status are not as effective as current arguments which focus on numerical improvements. In the case of potential customers in the new industry, current sales arguments likely work best for those whose irregular production situations are caused mainly by fault situations. When the actions of Vipetec were compared to ten key elements of creating customer references, it was seen that many of them the company has either already included in its strategy or has good chances to include them with the help of the results of this study.

Can future systemic financial risks be quantified?: ergodic vs nonergodic stochastic processes

Different axioms underlie efficient market theory and Keynes's liquidity preference theory. Efficient market theory assumes the ergodic axiom. Consequently, today's decision makers can calculate with actuarial precision the future value of all possible outcomes resulting from today's decisions. Since in an efficient market world decision makers "know" their intertemporal budget constraints, decision makers never default on a loan, i.e., systemic defaults, insolvencies, and bankruptcies are impossible. Keynes liquidity preference theory rejects the ergodic axiom. The future is ontologically uncertain. Accordingly systemic defaults and insolvencies can occur but can never be predicted in advance.

Value Stream Mapping in a Manufacturing Environment

Current Value Stream Map Future Value Stream Map Research Motivation Key Research Questions

Aspects of designing and evaluating seasonal-to-interannual Arctic sea-ice prediction systems

Using lessons from idealised predictability experiments, we discuss some issues and perspectives on the design of operational seasonal to inter-annual Arctic sea-ice prediction systems. We first review the opportunities to use a hierarchy of different types of experiment to learn about the predictability of Arctic climate. We also examine key issues for ensemble system design, such as: measuring skill, the role of ensemble size and generation of ensemble members. When assessing the potential skill of a set of prediction experiments, using more than one metric is essential as different choices can significantly alter conclusions about the presence or lack of skill. We find that increasing both the number of hindcasts and ensemble size is important for reliably assessing the correlation and expected error in forecasts. For other metrics, such as dispersion, increasing ensemble size is most important. Probabilistic measures of skill can also provide useful information about the reliability of forecasts. In addition, various methods for generating the different ensemble members are tested. The range of techniques can produce surprisingly different ensemble spread characteristics. The lessons learnt should help inform the design of future operational prediction systems.

Back from the future:the second chance in the past of aller + infinitive

Typological studies (Bybee et al. 1994, Dahl 2000, Bourdin 2008 among many others) have shown a tendency for spatial elements (such as movement verbs) to grammaticalise into temporal expressions. The periphrasis made of aller + infinitive has been very productive in Romance languages. If in French, Spanish or Portuguese, it refers to future, it refers to a simple past in Catalan. fr.: je vais aller au cinéma esp.: voy a ir al cine pt. Vou ira o cine cat.: vaig anar al cine Barceló & Bres (2005:168) indicate that, In French, «vers le XVIème siècle, […] la périphrase a brièvement fonctionné comme un temps du passé (alors même que l’emploi comme temps du futur émergeait)»: (1) Sur ces propos, firent leur accord et, en regardant le lieu le plus propre pour faire cette belle œuvre, elle va dire qu’elle n’en savait point de meilleure ni plus loin de tout soupçon, qu’une petite maison qui était dedans le parc, où il y avait chambre et lit tout à propos. (Marguerite de Navarre, L’Heptaméron) The future value took over so much so that Damourette & Pichon (1911-1936 :117) claimed the past value had disappeared»: Un second tour, encore plus aberrant, n’a plus, que nous sachions, aucune position en pays d’Oui. Nous voulons parler de l’expression d’un passé au moyen de l’auxiliaire aller, suivi de l’infinitif. Ce tour a eu une grande fortune dans le provençal ancien et le catalan […] En français, on n’en trouve que des traces, notamment du XIVe au XVIe siècles . Ex.:[…] Adoncques s’arrêtèrent le conte et Raimondin soubz un grand arbre ; lors va dire le conte à Raimondin: […]. Et Raimondin va lui dire : Sire, ce qu’il vous plaira. That allegedly extinct use is nonetheless alive and kicking in Contemporary French. Larreya (2005:349)notes that it is « très courant dans les récits – en particulier dans les récits oraux» and it is also found in newspaper language as shown by this except from an obituary for Loulou Gasté (Le Monde 1995): (2) Celle-ci se déroule aux Editions Micro, où il a un bureau. Séduit par la jeune interprète, il commence à lui écrire des chansons sur mesure et leur complicité va mettre cinq ans à se transformer en amour. Au début de leur rencontre, Loulou est neurasthénique parce qu’il vient de divorcer et la future Line, exclusivement préoccupée par son métier, ne songe à rien d’autre. Line et Loulou vont rattraper le temps perdu et créer ensemble un millier de petites chansons dont la plupart sont devenues immortelles. Jusqu’à ces derniers mois, il ne va pas se passer une journée sans que Loulou s’empare de sa guitare pour créer un refrain. Would we be witnessing a linguistic resurrection? The same structure seems therefore to have grammaticalised in diverging and even diametrically opposite ways in different Romance languages. In this talk, we shall try to explain how the phrase aller + infinitive is able to function both as a future and a past. We will especially concentrate on the case of contemporary French where, while the future interpretation has obtained the status of tense as futur proche or périphrastique, a past interpretation is now commonplace. Our reflection will be supported by a personal corpus of authentic examples.

Fit in to stand out : An experience perspective on value creation

In order to grow and survive, a firm must create value with consumers in ways that both fit in with consumer demands and stand out from competitors. Focusing on and understanding consumer and firm assessments of value and creation of value has become a central scope in the contemporary strategic management and marketing literature for understanding and explaining firm survival and success. Consequently, the overall aim of this thesis is to provide a conceptually and empirically grounded understanding of consumers’ and managers’ value assessments and behavior in value creation. This thesis draws on a consumer experience perspective and theories on social construction, organizational identity, self-congruence, and the theory of attractive quality, and combines multiple qualitative and quantitative studies. The findings in this thesis shed light on the interplay between consumers, firms, and contextual structures in value creation. Contextual structural, cultural, and political forces are shown to affect and be affected by the shared and individual cognitions of value creation that firms and consumers use in their assessment and creation value. The results of the study enhance the understanding of how firms can adopt various strategic schemas or organizing logics to optimize different types of use value creation when choosing between opposing and contradictive demands in their value creation. Furthermore, the thesis provides a deeper understanding of the hierarchical nature of consumer judgments of value that can be used to enhance the effectiveness of firm prioritizations and as a foundation for future value-creating strategies.

Increasing the value of household appliances by adding a heat pump system

Historically, domestic tasks such as preparing food and washing and drying clothes and dishes were done by hand. In a modern home many of these chores are taken care of by machines such as washing machines, dishwashers and tumble dryers. When the first such machines came on the market customers were happy that they worked at all! Today, the costs of electricity and customers’ environmental awareness are high, so features such as low electricity, water and detergent use strongly influence which household machine the customer will buy. One way to achieve lower electricity usage for the tumble dryer and the dishwasher is to add a heat pump system. The function of a heat pump system is to extract heat from a lower temperature source (heat source) and reject it to a higher temperature sink (heat sink) at a higher temperature level. Heat pump systems have been used for a long time in refrigerators and freezers, and that industry has driven the development of small, high quality, low price heat pump components. The low price of good quality heat pump components, along with an increased willingness to pay extra for lower electricity usage and environmental impact, make it possible to introduce heat pump systems in other household products. However, there is a high risk of failure with new features. A number of household manufacturers no longer exist because they introduced poorly implemented new features, which resulted in low quality and product performance. A manufacturer must predict whether the future value of a feature is high enough for the customer chain to pay for it. The challenge for the manufacturer is to develop and produce a high-performance heat pump feature in a household product with high quality, predict future willingness to pay for it, and launch it at the right moment in order to succeed. Tumble dryers with heat pump systems have been on the market since 2000. Paper I reports on the development of a transient simulation model of a commercial heat pump tumble dryer. The measured and simulated results were compared with good similarity. The influence of the size of the compressor and the condenser was investigated using the validated simulation model. The results from the simulation model show that increasing the cylinder volume of the compressor by 50% decreases the drying time by 14% without using more electricity.  Paper II is a concept study of adding a heat pump system to a dishwasher in order to decrease the total electricity usage. The dishwasher, dishware and water are heated by the condenser, and the evaporator absorbs the heat from a water tank. The majority of the heat transfer to the evaporator occurs when ice is generated in the water tank. An experimental setup and a transient simulation model of a heat pump dishwasher were developed. The simulation results show a 24% reduction in electricity use compared to a conventional dishwasher heated with an electric element. The simulation model was based on an experimental setup that was not optimised. During the study it became apparent that it is possible to decrease electricity usage even more with the next experimental setup.

A framework for electricity price spike analysis with advanced data mining methods

There are many techniques for electricity market price forecasting. However, most of them are designed for expected price analysis rather than price spike forecasting. An effective method of predicting the occurrence of spikes has not yet been observed in the literature so far. In this paper, a data mining based approach is presented to give a reliable forecast of the occurrence of price spikes. Combined with the spike value prediction techniques developed by the same authors, the proposed approach aims at providing a comprehensive tool for price spike forecasting. In this paper, feature selection techniques are firstly described to identify the attributes relevant to the occurrence of spikes. A simple introduction to the classification techniques is given for completeness. Two algorithms: support vector machine and probability classifier are chosen to be the spike occurrence predictors and are discussed in details. Realistic market data are used to test the proposed model with promising results.

Advanced geostatistical and machine-learning models for spatial data analysis of radioactively contaminated regions

Radioactive soil-contamination mapping and risk assessment is a vital issue for decision makers. Traditional approaches for mapping the spatial concentration of radionuclides employ various regression-based models, which usually provide a single-value prediction realization accompanied (in some cases) by estimation error. Such approaches do not provide the capability for rigorous uncertainty quantification or probabilistic mapping. Machine learning is a recent and fast-developing approach based on learning patterns and information from data. Artificial neural networks for prediction mapping have been especially powerful in combination with spatial statistics. A data-driven approach provides the opportunity to integrate additional relevant information about spatial phenomena into a prediction model for more accurate spatial estimates and associated uncertainty. Machine-learning algorithms can also be used for a wider spectrum of problems than before: classification, probability density estimation, and so forth. Stochastic simulations are used to model spatial variability and uncertainty. Unlike regression models, they provide multiple realizations of a particular spatial pattern that allow uncertainty and risk quantification. This paper reviews the most recent methods of spatial data analysis, prediction, and risk mapping, based on machine learning and stochastic simulations in comparison with more traditional regression models. The radioactive fallout from the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant accident is used to illustrate the application of the models for prediction and classification problems. This fallout is a unique case study that provides the challenging task of analyzing huge amounts of data ('hard' direct measurements, as well as supplementary information and expert estimates) and solving particular decision-oriented problems.

Aplicación de la metodología “policy deployment” planificación estratégica a un departamento de suministro de materiales para aerogeneradores para reducir inventarios

Debido a la necesidad de diferenciarse y hacer frente a la competencia, las empresas han apostado por desarrollar operaciones que den valor al cliente, por eso muchas de ellas han visto en las herramientas lean la oportunidad para mejorar sus operaciones. Esta mejora implica la reducción de dinero, personas, equipos grandes, inventario y espacio, con dos objetivos: eliminar despilfarro y reducir la variabilidad. Para conseguir los objetivos estratégicos de la empresa es imprescindible qué éstos estén alineados con los planes de la gerencia a nivel medio y a su vez con el trabajo realizado por los empleados para asegurar que cada persona está alineada en la misma dirección y al mismo tiempo. Ésta es la filosofía de la planificación estratégica. Por ello uno de los objetivos de este proyecto será el desarrollar una herramienta que facilite la exposición de los objetivos de la empresa y la comunicación de los mismos a todos los niveles de la organización para a partir de ellos y tomando como referencia la necesidad de reducir inventarios en la cadena de suministro se realizará un estudio de la producción de un componente de control del aerogenerador para conseguir nivelarla y reducir su inventario de producto terminado. Los objetivos particulares en este apartado serán reducir el inventario en un 28%, nivelar la producción reduciendo la variabilidad del 31% al 24%, mantener un stock máximo de 24 unidades garantizando el suministro ante una demanda variable, incrementar la rotación del inventario en un 10% y establecer un plan de acción para reducir el lead time entre un 40-50%. Todo ello será posible gracias a la realización del mapa de valor presente y futuro para eliminar desperdicios y crear un flujo continuo y el cálculo de un supermercado que mantenga el stock en un nivel óptimo.

Evaluación y optimización de los servicios de un taller de mantenimiento mediante el software de simulación ARENA

Debido a la necesidad de diferenciarse y hacer frente a la competencia, las empresas han apostado por desarrollar operaciones que den valor al cliente, por eso muchas de ellas han visto en las herramientas lean la oportunidad para mejorar sus operaciones. Esta mejora implica la reducción de dinero, personas, equipos grandes, inventario y espacio, con dos objetivos: eliminar despilfarro y reducir la variabilidad. Para conseguir los objetivos estratégicos de la empresa es imprescindible qué éstos estén alineados con los planes de la gerencia a nivel medio y a su vez con el trabajo realizado por los empleados para asegurar que cada persona está alineada en la misma dirección y al mismo tiempo. Ésta es la filosofía de la planificación estratégica. Por ello uno de los objetivos de este proyecto será el desarrollar una herramienta que facilite la exposición de los objetivos de la empresa y la comunicación de los mismos a todos los niveles de la organización para a partir de ellos y tomando como referencia la necesidad de reducir inventarios en la cadena de suministro se realizará un estudio de la producción de un componente de control del aerogenerador para conseguir nivelarla y reducir su inventario de producto terminado. Los objetivos particulares en este apartado serán reducir el inventario en un 28%, nivelar la producción reduciendo la variabilidad del 31% al 24%, mantener un stock máximo de 24 unidades garantizando el suministro ante una demanda variable, incrementar la rotación del inventario en un 10% y establecer un plan de acción para reducir el lead time entre un 40-50%. Todo ello será posible gracias a la realización del mapa de valor presente y futuro para eliminar desperdicios y crear un flujo continuo y el cálculo de un supermercado que mantenga el stock en un nivel óptimo.