Entwicklungswege Jugendlicher zwischen Transition und Moratorium

Bisher stehen sich in der deutschen Jugendforschung mit dem Transitions- und Moratoriumsgedanken zwei Konzepte zur Beschreibung der Jugendphase gegenüber, deren ergänzender Charakter bisher kaum Beachtung gefunden hat. Um eine Verknüpfung leisten zu können, sollen beide Auffassungen von Jugend kurz skizziert und in die Beschreibung einer Typologie jugendlicher Entwicklungswege überführt werden. Im zweiten Teil werden auf der Basis von Sekundäranalysen empirische Evidenzen aufgezeigt, die eine Vertiefung der theoretischen Herangehensweise aussichtsreich erscheinen lassen. (DIPF/Orig.)

Combining accelerator and reactor measurements of theta(13): the first result

The lepton mixing angle theta(13), the only unknown angle in the standard three-flavor neutrino mixing scheme, is finally measured by the recent reactor and accelerator neutrino experiments. We perform a combined analysis of the data coming from T2K, MINOS, Double Chooz, Daya Bay and RENO experiments and find sin(2)2 theta(13) = 0.096 +/- 0.013(+/- 0.040) at 1 sigma (3 sigma) CL and that the hypothesis theta(13) = 0 is now rejected at a significance level of 7.7 sigma. We also discuss the near future expectation on the precision of the theta(13) determination by using expected data from these ongoing experiments.

Aportación de técnicas geoespaciales para la determinación de los niveles de referencia de la deforestación y la degradación de bosques en el ámbito de proyectos REDD. análisis de factores de causalidad subyacentes y directos

La pérdida de bosques en la Tierra, principalmente en ecosistemas amazónicos, es un factor clave en el proceso del cambio climático. Para revertir esta situación, los mecanismos REDD (Reducing Emission from Deforestation and forest Degradation) están permitiendo la implementación de actividades de protección del clima a través de la reducción de emisiones por deforestación evitada, según los esquemas previstos en el Protocolo de Kioto. El factor técnico más crítico en un proyecto REDD es la determinación de la línea de referencia de emisiones, que define la expectativa futura sobre las emisiones de CO2 de origen forestal en ausencia de esfuerzos adicionales obtenidos como consecuencia de la implementación del programa REDD para frenar este tipo de emisiones. La zona del estudio se ubica en la región de San Martín (Perú), provincia cubierta fundamentalmente por bosques tropicales cuyas tasas de deforestación son de las más altas de la cuenca amazónica. En las últimas décadas del siglo XX, la región empezó un acelerado proceso de deforestación consecuencia de la integración vial con el resto del país y la rápida inmigración desde zonas rurales en busca de nuevas tierras agrícolas. Desde el punto de vista de la investigación llevada a cabo en la tesis doctoral, se pueden destacar dos líneas: 1. El estudio multitemporal mediante imágenes de satélite Landsat 5/TM con el propósito de calcular las pérdidas de bosque entre períodos. El estudio multitemporal se llevó a cabo en el período 1998-2011 utilizando imágenes Landsat 5/TM, aplicando la metodología de Análisis de Mezclas Espectrales (Spectral Mixtures Analysis), que permite descomponer la reflectancia de cada píxel de la imagen en diferentes fracciones de mezcla espectral. En este proceso, las etapas más críticas son el establecimiento de los espectros puros o endemembers y la recopilación de librerías espectrales adecuadas, en este caso de bosques tropicales, que permitan reducir la incertidumbre de los procesos. Como resultado de la investigación se ha conseguido elaborar la línea de referencia de emisiones histórica, para el período de estudio, teniendo en cuenta tanto los procesos de deforestación como de degradación forestal. 2. Relacionar los resultados de pérdida de bosque con factores de causalidad directos e indirectos. La determinación de los procesos de cambio de cobertura forestal utilizando técnicas geoespaciales permite relacionar, de manera significativa, información de los indicadores causales de dichos procesos. De igual manera, se pueden estimar escenarios futuros de deforestación y degradación de acuerdo al análisis de la evolución de dichos vectores, teniendo en cuenta otros factores indirectos o subyacentes, como pueden ser los económicos, sociales, demográficos y medioambientales. La identificación de los agentes subyacentes o indirectos es una tarea más compleja que la de los factores endógenos o directos. Por un lado, las relaciones causa – efecto son mucho más difusas; y, por otro, los efectos pueden estar determinados por fenómenos más amplios, consecuencia de superposición o acumulación de diferentes causas. A partir de los resultados de pérdida de bosque obtenidos mediante la utilización de imágenes Landsat 5/TM, se investigaron los criterios de condicionamiento directos e indirectos que podrían haber influido en la deforestación y degradación forestal en ese período. Para ello, se estudiaron las series temporales, para las mismas fechas, de 9 factores directos (infraestructuras, hidrografía, temperatura, etc.) y 196 factores indirectos (económicos, sociales, demográficos y ambientales, etc.) con, en principio, un alto potencial de causalidad. Finalmente se ha analizado la predisposición de cada factor con la ocurrencia de deforestación y degradación forestal por correlación estadística de las series temporales obtenidas. ABSTRACT Forests loss on Earth, mainly in Amazonian ecosystems, is a key factor in the process of climate change. To reverse this situation, the REDD (Reducing Emission from Deforestation and forest Degradation) are allowing the implementation of climate protection activities through reducing emissions from avoided deforestation, according to the schemes under the Kyoto Protocol. Also, the baseline emissions in a REDD project defines a future expectation on CO2 emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in the absence of additional efforts as a result of REDD in order to stop these emissions. The study area is located in the region of San Martín (Peru), province mainly covered by tropical forests whose deforestation rates are the highest in the Amazon basin. In the last decades of the twentieth century, the region began an accelerated process of deforestation due to road integration with the rest of the country and the rapid migration from rural areas for searching of new farmland. From the point of view of research in the thesis, we can highlight two lines: 1. The multitemporal study using Landsat 5/TM satellite images in order to calculate the forest loss between periods. The multitemporal study was developed in the period 1998-2011 using Landsat 5/TM, applying the methodology of Spectral Mixture Analysis, which allows decomposing the reflectance of each pixel of the image in different fractions of mixture spectral. In this process, the most critical step is the establishment of pure spectra or endemembers spectra, and the collecting of appropriate spectral libraries, in this case of tropical forests, to reduce the uncertainty of the process. As a result of research has succeeded in developing the baseline emissions for the period of study, taking into account both deforestation and forest degradation. 2. Relate the results of forest loss with direct and indirect causation factors. Determining the processes of change in forest cover using geospatial technologies allows relating, significantly, information of the causal indicators in these processes. Similarly, future deforestation and forest degradation scenarios can be estimated according to the analysis of the evolution of these drivers, taking into account other indirect or underlying factors, such as economic, social, demographic and environmental. Identifying the underlying or indirect agents is more complex than endogenous or direct factors. On the one hand, cause - effect relationships are much more diffuse; and, second, the effects may be determined by broader phenomena, due to superposition or accumulation of different causes. From the results of forest loss obtained using Landsat 5/TM, the criteria of direct and indirect conditioning that might have contributed to deforestation and forest degradation in that period were investigated. For this purpose, temporal series, for the same dates, 9 direct factors (infrastructure, hydrography, temperature, etc.) and 196 underlying factors (economic, social, demographic and environmental) with, in principle, a high potential of causality. Finally it was analyzed the predisposition of each factor to the occurrence of deforestation and forest degradation by statistical correlation of the obtained temporal series.

Future perfect

"Future Perfect" is a solo artist exhibition featuring a 9 channel video installation, which is comprised of looped computer animation projections. In the first room, the big one, there are nine projections of looped computer animations. Many of these look like representations of gallery spaces containing sculptures, including rotating interpenetrating discs, bouncing coloured coffins, and jostling cardboard cubes (the cubes are blank, then covered in drawings, then covered in photographic imagery). In one video, a man and a woman walk towards one another but never get together. In the second room, an animated video on a flatscreen suggests an origin story. The subtitles tell how, in Russia, my great-grandfather made a joke about Stalin's child bride that cost him his life. That one isn’t a loop; it has a beginning, middle, and end. Lying on the floor, in front of the video, are two slightly crumpled mural prints of photographs of the ocean. There's also a clear Perspex cloud shape on a wall. Viewers will see themselves reflected in it, as if it were a distant hovering mirage. The first room of the exhibition, where objects are set in perpetual motion, is about departure. The second room registers some sense of arrival. The future perfect implies looking back on something that hasn't happened yet; future and past are conflated and the present is somehow deferred. The future perfect combines anticipation and reflection, and it relates to my interest in combining 3-D animation with other mediums like drawing, painting, and shot video. In my work, the virtual and actual coexist in tension, just like experience and expectation in the future perfect.

Dread and the disvalue of future pain.

Standard theories of decision-making involving delayed outcomes predict that people should defer a punishment, whilst advancing a reward. In some cases, such as pain, people seem to prefer to expedite punishment, implying that its anticipation carries a cost, often conceptualized as 'dread'. Despite empirical support for the existence of dread, whether and how it depends on prospective delay is unknown. Furthermore, it is unclear whether dread represents a stable component of value, or is modulated by biases such as framing effects. Here, we examine choices made between different numbers of painful shocks to be delivered faithfully at different time points up to 15 minutes in the future, as well as choices between hypothetical painful dental appointments at time points of up to approximately eight months in the future, to test alternative models for how future pain is disvalued. We show that future pain initially becomes increasingly aversive with increasing delay, but does so at a decreasing rate. This is consistent with a value model in which moment-by-moment dread increases up to the time of expected pain, such that dread becomes equivalent to the discounted expectation of pain. For a minority of individuals pain has maximum negative value at intermediate delay, suggesting that the dread function may itself be prospectively discounted in time. Framing an outcome as relief reduces the overall preference to expedite pain, which can be parameterized by reducing the rate of the dread-discounting function. Our data support an account of disvaluation for primary punishments such as pain, which differs fundamentally from existing models applied to financial punishments, in which dread exerts a powerful but time-dependent influence over choice.

"Oft expectation fails": a time-series analysis of construction starts in the London office market

Expectations of future market conditions are generally acknowledged to be crucial for the development decision and hence for shaping the built environment. This empirical study of the Central London office market from 1987 to 2009 tests for evidence of adaptive and naive expectations. Applying VAR models and a recursive OLS regression with one-step forecasts, we find evidence of adaptive and naïve, rather than rational expectations of developers. Although the magnitude of the errors and the length of time lags vary over time and development cycles, the results confirm that developers’ decisions are explained to a large extent by contemporaneous and past conditions in both London submarkets. The corollary of this finding is that developers may be able to generate excess profits by exploiting market inefficiencies but this may be hindered in practice by the long periods necessary for planning and construction of the asset. More generally, the results of this study suggest that real estate cycles are largely generated endogenously rather than being the result of unexpected exogenous shocks.

Could saturation effects be visible in a future electron-ion collider?

We expect to observe parton saturation in a future electron-ion collider. In this Letter we discuss this expectation in more detail considering two different models which are in good agreement with the existing experimental data on nuclear structure functions. In particular, we study the predictions of saturation effects in electron-ion collisions at high energies, using a generalization for nuclear targets of the b-CGC model, which describes the ep HERA quite well. We estimate the total. longitudinal and charm structure functions in the dipole picture and compare them with the predictions obtained using collinear factorization and modern sets of nuclear parton distributions. Our results show that inclusive observables are not very useful in the search for saturation effects. In the small x region they are very difficult to disentangle from the predictions of the collinear approaches. This happens mainly because of the large uncertainties in the determination of the nuclear parton distribution functions. On the other hand, our results indicate that the contribution of diffractive processes to the total cross section is about 20% at large A and small Q(2), allowing for a detailed study of diffractive observables. The study of diffractive processes becomes essential to observe parton Saturation. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ocean (De)oxygenation Across the Last Deglaciation: Insights for the Future

Anthropogenic warming is expected to drive oxygen out of the ocean as the water temperature rises and the rate of exchange between subsurface waters and the atmosphere slows due to enhanced upper ocean density stratification. Observations from recent decades are tantalizingly consistent with this prediction, though these changes remain subtle in the face of natural variability. Earth system model projections unanimously predict a long-term decrease in the global ocean oxygen inventory, but show regional discrepancies, particularly in the most oxygen-depleted waters, owing to the complex interplay between oxygen supply pathways and oxygen consumption. The geological record provides an orthogonal perspective, showing how the oceanic oxygen content varied in response to prior episodes of climate change. These past changes were much slower than the current, anthropogenic change, but can help to appraise sensitivities, and point toward potentially dominant mechanisms of change. Consistent with the model projections, marine sediments recorded an overall expansion of low-oxygen waters in the upper ocean as it warmed at the end of the last ice age. This expansion was not linearly related with temperature, though, but reached a deoxygenation extreme midway through the warming. Meanwhile, the deep ocean became better oxygenated, opposite the general expectation. These observations require that significant changes in apparent oxygen utilization occurred, suggesting that they will also be important in the future.

Disentangling mental imagery and perceptual expectation

Mental imagery and perception are thought to rely on similar neural circuits, and many recent behavioral studies have attempted to demonstrate interactions between actual physical stimulation and sensory imagery in the corresponding sensory modality. However, there has been a lack of theoretical understanding of the nature of these interactions, and both interferential and facilitatory effects have been found. Facilitatory effects appear strikingly similar to those that arise due to experimental manipulations of expectation. Using a self-motion discrimination task, we try to disentangle the effects of mental imagery from those of expectation by using a hierarchical drift diffusion model to investigate both choice data and response times. Manipulations of expectation are reasonably well understood in terms of their selective influence on parameters of the drift diffusion model, and in this study, we make the first attempt to similarly characterize the effects of mental imagery. We investigate mental imagery within the computational framework of control theory and state estimation. • Mental imagery and perception are thought to rely on similar neural circuits; however, on more theoretical grounds, imagery seems to be closely related to the output of forward models (sensory predictions). • We reanalyzed data from a study of imagined self-motion. • Bayesian modeling of response times may allow us to disentangle the effects of mental imagery on behavior from other cognitive (top-down) effects, such as expectation.