Implementação de um sistema Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment em uma grande rede de fast food por meio de um prestador de serviços logísticos

A gestão colaborativa é, atualmente, um elemento-chave no contexto da gestão da cadeia de suprimentos. Neste artigo, o tema é abordado mediante a análise de um caso real, em que uma grande rede mundial de fast-food e seu prestador de serviço logístico (PSL) trabalharam conjuntamente no Brasil em um projeto-piloto para a implementação de um collaborative planning, forecasting, and replenishment (CPFR). O trabalho faz uso de uma metodologia de pesquisa-ação e apresenta as principais variáveis que influenciaram o projeto, abordando os processos necessários para a implementação e os pontos que favorecem o CPFR. Com base no caso estudado, o trabalho apresenta um conjunto de propostas sobre o papel dos agentes da cadeia em projetos dessa natureza. A gestão da cadeia de suprimentos por intermédio da coordenação direta de um PSL também permite demonstrar as possibilidades e dificuldades desse sistema, contribuindo com a visão colaborativa na cadeia de suprimentos a partir da relação entre seus agentes.

CCPFR : Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment : é realmente possível a integração entre varejistas e fabricantes no processo de planejamento, na previsão de vendas e reabastecimento a ponto de diminuir as perdas nas vendas e aumentar a produtividade?

Trata da nova metodologia de planejamento colaborativo, previsão e reabastecimento, conhecida pela sigla CPFR. Aborda as principais lacunas das metodologias tradicionais, as oportunidades de negócios geradas, o modelo de negócios proposto pelo CPF R e suas etapas de implementação, as implicações sobre a organização, os principais problemas de implementação, metodologias e ferramentas de integração presentes nas empresas que utilizam o CPFR. Aponta oportunidades geradas pelo CPFR e características de integração presentes nas empresas que já utilizam o conceito.

Importância dos fatores não-tecnológicos na implementação do CPFR

De acordo com o Voluntary Interindustry Commerce Standards [VICS], o Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment [CPFR] se baseia na padronização, registro e sincronização de dados eletronicamente, apoiado pela gestão colaborativa existente entre as empresas (VICS, 2004). A partir desta definição, pode-se concluir que existem dois fatores preponderantes na implementação do CPFR: um essencialmente tecnológico e outro não-tecnológico. Nesse contexto, o propósito principal deste estudo é identificar na literatura os chamados fatores não tecnológicos que envolvem o CPFR e analisá-los em situações reais. A importância desses fatores é analisada, então, por meio do estudo de dois casos reais de implementação do CPFR, respectivamente, em uma grande rede de fast food e em um grande distribuidor de alimentos, que operam no Brasil. Os resultados destacam, principalmente, que a previsão da demanda realizada pela empresa coordenadora do CPFR é preponderante sobre o entendimento da demanda por todos os elos da cadeia de suprimentos, que a cultura colaborativa é considerada muito importante no relacionamento ao longo da cadeia (embora não seja determinante para a implementação dos processos) e que o monitoramento das atividades é fundamental para o alinhamento das empresas na gestão do CPFR.

Technological-forecasting and research inputs in area of birth-control technology

Technological forecasting, defined as quantified probabilistic prediction of timings and degree of change in the technological parameters, capabilities desirability or needs at different times in the future, is applied to birth control technology (BCT) as a means of revealing the paths of most promising research through identifying the necessary points for breakthroughs. The present status of BCT in the areas of pills and the IUD, male contraceptives, immumological approaches, post-coital pills, abortion, sterilization, luteolytic agents, laser technologies, and control of the sex of the child, are each summarized and evaluated in turn. Fine mapping is done to identify the most potentially promising areas of BCT. These include efforts to make oral contraception easier, improvement of the design of the IUD, clinical evaluation of the male contraceptive danazol, the effecting of biochemical changes in the seminal fluid, and researching of immunological approaches and the effects of other new drugs such as prostaglandins. The areas that require immediate and large research inputs are oral contraception and the IUD. On the basis of population and technological forecasts, it is deduced that research efforts could most effectively aid countries like India through the immediate production of an oral contraceptive pill or IUD with long-lasting effects. Development of a pill for males or an immunization against pre gnancy would also have a significant impact. However, the major impediment to birth control programs to date is attitudes, which must be changed through education.

Reaction time and replenishment time of SP and CGRP after incision in rat skin

Background. the skin neurogenic inflammation is mainly related to Substance P (SP) and Calcitonin Gene-related Peptide (CGRP). There is no data on their availability in the dynamics of skin nerve endings, concerning their release and replenishment after a nociceptive stimulus, so this was investigated. Materials and methods. 25 rats were randomly distributed in 5 groups. the animals of the control group (CG) determined the baseline levels of neuropeptides in the skin. the groups S0 and S30 did not receive any cutaneous stimulus at 30 and 60 minutes, respectively. in the group S1, an incision stimulus was made at 30 minutes. in the group S31, a nociceptive stimulus was performed by subdermal scratching at 30 minutes and, at 60 minutes, the incision stimulus was carried out in the same location (nociceptive hyperstimulation). the skin samples of the other animals were harvested from the back 1 minute after their death. SP, pro-CGRP and CGRP were quantified by Western Blotting. Results. the incision stimulus released SP, S1 compared to S0 (p < 0.05) detected in the first minute, and the replenishment time was more than 30 minutes. Also, it cleaved pro-CGRP, S1 compared to S31 (p < 0.05) in the first minute, and its replenishment time less than 30 minutes. Release of CGRP was not detected. Conclusion. the incision released SP already detected in the first minute; its replenishment time is more than 30 minutes. the incision decreased pro-CGRP, also detected in the first minute; and its replenishment time is less than 30 minutes.

The Baltic Dry Index: cyclicalities, forecasting and hedging strategies

The cyclical properties of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) and their implications for forecasting performance are investigated. We find that changes in the BDI can lead to permanent shocks to trade of major exporting economies. In our forecasting exercise, we show that commodities and trigonometric regression can lead to improved predictions and then use our forecasting results to perform an investment exercise and to show how they can be used for improved risk management in the freight sector.

Innovative approach to building systems integration problems: Using systems theory, technological forecasting and scenario planning

Building services are worth about 2% GDP and are essential for the effective and efficient operations of the building. It is increasingly recognised that the value of a building is related to the way it supports the client organisation’s ongoing business operations. Building services are central to the functional performance of buildings and provide the necessary conditions for health, well-being, safety and security of the occupants. They frequently comprise several technologically distinct sub-systems and their design and construction requires the involvement of numerous disciplines and trades. Designers and contractors working on the same project are frequently employed by different companies. Materials and equipment is supplied by a diverse range of manufacturers. Facilities managers are responsible for operation of the building service in use. The coordination between these participants is crucially important to achieve optimum performance, but too often is neglected. This leaves room for serious faults. The need for effective integration is important. Modern technology offers increasing opportunities for integrated personal-control systems for lighting, ventilation and security as well as interoperability between systems. Opportunities for a new mode of systems integration are provided by the emergence of PFI/PPP procurements frameworks. This paper attempts to establish how systems integration can be achieved in the process of designing, constructing and operating building services. The essence of the paper therefore is to envisage the emergent organisational responses to the realisation of building services as an interactive systems network.

Regularized logistic models for probabilistic forecasting and diagnostics

Logistic models are studied as a tool to convert dynamical forecast information (deterministic and ensemble) into probability forecasts. A logistic model is obtained by setting the logarithmic odds ratio equal to a linear combination of the inputs. As with any statistical model, logistic models will suffer from overfitting if the number of inputs is comparable to the number of forecast instances. Computational approaches to avoid overfitting by regularization are discussed, and efficient techniques for model assessment and selection are presented. A logit version of the lasso (originally a linear regression technique), is discussed. In lasso models, less important inputs are identified and the corresponding coefficient is set to zero, providing an efficient and automatic model reduction procedure. For the same reason, lasso models are particularly appealing for diagnostic purposes.

The potential inefficiency of using marketing margins in applied commodity price analysis, forecasting and risk management

This paper examines the implications of using marketing margins in applied commodity price analysis. The marketing-margin concept has a long and distinguished history, but it has caused considerable controversy. This is particularly the case in the context of analyzing the distribution of research gains in multi-stage production systems. We derive optimal tax schemes for raising revenues to finance research and promotion in a downstream market, derive the rules for efficient allocation of the funds, and compare the rules with an without the marketing-margin assumption. Applying the methodology to quarterly time series on the Australian beef-cattle sector and, with several caveats, we conclude that, during the period 1978:2 - 1988:4, the Australian Meat and Livestock Corporation optimally allocated research resources.