Do Households Have Rational Expectations on Future Consumption? Evidence from the Finnish Consumer Survey

Ever since its initial introduction some fifty years ago, the rational expectations paradigm has dominated the way economic theory handles uncertainty. The main assertion made by John F. Muth (1961), seen by many as the father of the paradigm, is that expectations of rational economic agents should essentially be equal to the predictions of relevant economic theory, since rational agents should use information available to them in an optimal way. This assumption often has important consequences on the results and interpretations of the models where it is applied. Although the rational expectations assumption can be applied to virtually any economic theory, the focus in this thesis is on macroeconomic theories of consumption, especially the Rational Expectations–Permanent Income Hypothesis proposed by Robert E. Hall in 1978. The much-debated theory suggests that, assuming that agents have rational expectations on their future income, consumption decisions should follow a random walk, and the best forecast of future consumption level is the current consumption level. Then, changes in consumption are unforecastable. This thesis constructs an empirical test for the Rational Expectations–Permanent Income Hypothesis using Finnish Consumer Survey data as well as various Finnish macroeconomic data. The data sample covers the years 1995–2010. Consumer survey data may be interpreted to directly represent household expectations, which makes it an interesting tool for this particular test. The variable to be predicted is the growth of total household consumption expenditure. The main empirical result is that the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), a balance figure computed from the most important consumer survey responses, does have statistically significant predictive power over the change in total consumption expenditure. The history of consumption expenditure growth itself, however, fails to predict its own future values. This indicates that the CCI contains some information that the history of consumption decisions does not, and that the consumption decisions are not optimal in the theoretical context. However, when conditioned on various macroeconomic variables, the CCI loses its predictive ability. This finding suggests that the index is merely a (partial) summary of macroeconomic information, and does not contain any significant private information on consumption intentions of households not directly deductible from the objective economic variables. In conclusion, the Rational Expectations–Permanent Income Hypothesis is strongly rejected by the empirical results in this thesis. This result is in accordance with most earlier studies conducted on the topic.

Death and Consumer Culture

Among the most veiled and emotionally charged of life’s experiences are those related to death. Given that poetry has long been recognized as an unparalleled means of expressing and understanding the most complex and emotional aspects of life (Sherry and Schouten, 2002), it is of little surprise that few poets regarded as the finest of all wordsmiths have not, since time immemorial, grappled with death.

Recently, within marketing and consumer research, poetry has slowly but progressively come to be recognized as a means by which to understand, express, celebrate, and/or confront that which defies scientific or other more “scholarly” explanation (Canniford, 2012; Wijland, 2011; Sherry and Schouten, 2002). This “poetic turn” has manifest itself most notably within the nascent realm of Consumer Culture Theory (CCT); mainly in poetry reading sessions held—with published chapbooks in hand—in concurrence with the annual CCT symposium. Death-related poetry penned by marketing and consumer researchers has there entered—albeit randomly—the CCT circuit (see, for example: Arnould, 2014; Steinfield, 2014; Gabel, 2013, 2010; Downey, 2011, 2010a, 2010b, 2010c).

This chapter represents the first formal, organized attempt to better understand death-related consumption experience and meaning via the creation and dissemination of original works of poetry. The chapter’s title reflects the broad, eclectic perspective of death and consumption herein pursued. We consider funerary and other—good, service, and ideological—product consumption activities and experiences transpiring in the context of death. We also embrace the notion that death often brutally consumes those dealing with it; a sort of “consumption of consumers by death.” In turn, as vividly expressed in several of the poems in this chapter, consumption acts or experiences and/or memories thereof may be instrumental in coping with “being consumed by death.”

Full Cups, Full Coffers: Tax Strategies and Consumer Culture in the Early Modern German Cities

During the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries, the excise taxes (Ungeld) paid by town residents on the consumption of beer, wine, mead and brandy represented the single most important source of civic revenue for many German cities. In a crisis, these taxes could spike to 70-80% of civic income. This paper examines civic budgets and 'behind-the-scenes' deliberations in a sample of towns in southern Germany in order to illuminate how decisions affecting consumer taxes were made. Even during the sobriety movements of the Reformation and post-Reformation period, tax income from drinkers remained attractive to city leaders because the bulk of the excise tax burden could easily be shifted away from privileged members of society and placed on the population at large. At the same time, governments had to maintain a careful balance between what they needed in order to govern and what the consumer market could bear, for high taxes on drinks were also targeted in many popular revolts. This led to nimble politicking by those responsible for tax decisions. Drink taxes were introduced, raised, lowered and otherwise manipulated based not only on shifting fashions and tastes but also on the degree of economic stress faced by the community. Where civic rulers were successful in striking the right balance, the rewards were considerable. The income from drink sales was a major factor in how the cities of the Empire survived the wars and other crises of the early modern period without going into so much debt that they lost their independence.

Full Cups, Full Coffers: Tax Strategies and Consumer Culture in the Early Modern German Cities

During the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries, the excise taxes (Ungeld) paid by town residents on the consumption of beer, wine, mead and brandy represented the single most important source of civic revenue for many German cities. In a crisis, these taxes could spike to 70–80% of civic income. This paper examines civic budgets and ‘behind-the-scenes’ deliberations in a sample of towns in southern Germany in order to illuminate how decisions affecting consumer taxes were made. Even during the sobriety movements of the Reformation and post-Reformation period, tax income from drinkers remained attractive to city leaders because the bulk of the excise tax burden could easily be shifted away from privileged members of society and placed on the population at large. At the same time, governments had to maintain a careful balance between what they needed in order to govern and what the consumer market could bear, for high taxes on drinks were also targeted in many popular revolts. This led to nimble politicking by those responsible for tax decisions. Drink taxes were introduced, raised, lowered and otherwise manipulated based not only on shifting fashions and tastes but also on the degree of economic stress faced by the community. Where civic rulers were successful in striking the right balance, the rewards were considerable. The income from drink sales was a major factor in how the cities of the Empire survived the wars and other crises of the early modern period without going into so much debt that they lost their independence.

Kuluttajuuden rakentuminen nuorten kertomuksissa

This study examines the narrative construction of consumerism in Finnish consumer culture in the early 21st century. The objects of the study are consumer life stories and essays on environmentally friendly consumption, written by 15-19-year-old high school students. Moreover, group discussions were used as additional research material. The data was gathered at five high schools in different areas of Finland. Young people's consumer narratives are interpreted through cultural stories and consumer ethos such as self-control, gratification and green consumerism. The narrative research approach is used to analyse what types of consumer positions these young people construct in stories on their own consumer history, and what kinds of ideas and thought patterns they construct on green consumerism. The study creates a multifaceted image of young people as agents in consumer society. They construct archetypical stories of wastrels and scrooges, as well as prudent and environmentally friendly consumers. Consumption and expenditure are however mostly a continuous battle between self-control and giving in to gratification. This reality is illustrated among other things by clever expressions invented by young people, such as Carefree Pennywise, Prudent Hedonist and Wasteful Scrooge. In their narratives, young people also analyse the usefulness - or uselessness - of their decisions on consumption, as well as develop themselves into controlling and sensible consumers. This kind of virtuous consumer allows him/herself the joy and the gratification of consumption, as long as these are "kept in check". One's view of expenditure and consumption is not permanent. Consumerism may alter with time. A wastrel may grow up to be a young person in control of their desires, or a thrifty child may awaken to the pleasures of consumption in their teens. Consumerism may also be polyphonic: it may simultaneously - and even uncomplicatedly - be constructed upon the discourses of wastefulness, prudence, gratification and green consumerism. Young people allow for gratification to form a part of green consumerism, too: it is not simply restrictive self-denial. They also see many hurdles in the way of green consumerism, such as the elevated price of ecological products, and the difficulties of green consumer practices. The stories also show the gender division in green consumerism. For young men, ecological considerations offer elements for the construction of consumerism only on the very rare occasion, whereas striving for day-to-day green practices is typical for young women.

Keskiluokkainen kulutuseetos 1920–1950-luvuilla syntyneiden suomalaisten kulutuskerronnassa

Tutkielmassa tarkastellaan suomalaista kulutuskulttuuria ja sen muuttumista kulutuskerronnan kautta. Aineisto koostuu 39 iäkkään, 1920–1950-luvuilla syntyneen, suomalaisen kuluttajaelämäkerroista, jotka kerättiin kirjoituskilpailulla. Tutkielmassa analysoidaan informanttien kulutukseen ja rahankäyttöön liittämiä hyveitä sekä sitä, millaisista kulutuseetoksista hyveet kertovat. Elämäkertojen erittelyyn ja tulkintaan on sovellettu lähiluentaa. Analyysin avulla on rakennettu tulkinta keskiluokkaisesta kulutuseetoksesta. Tutkimuksen teoreettinen viitekehys pohjautuu kulutuksen normatiivisia merkityksiä, kulutuseetoksia ja keskiluokkaisuutta käsitteleviin tutkimuksiin. Tulkintaa ohjaa lisäksi ymmärrys tutkittavan sukupolven elämänkulusta suomalaisen kulutusyhteiskunnan kehityksen näkökulmasta. Tutkittavan sukupolven elämän aikana kotitalous on kehittynyt agraarisen yhteiskunnan omavaraisesta tuotantoyksiköstä vauraan yhteiskunnan kulutukseen ja sosiaaliseen uusintamiseen keskittyväksi instituutioksi. Palkkatyöläisyys, vapaa-aika ja kulutusmahdollisuudet ovat lisääntyneet, ja yhteiskuntaa leimaa keskiluokkaistuminen. Elämäkerroista löytyvät säästäväisyyden ja vaatimattomuuden hyveet kertovat talonpoikaisen kulutueetoksen olevan edelleen keskeinen kulutuseetos, mutta niukkuuden hyveellistämisen lisäksi kulutuskerronnasta löytyy myös modernimpia tapoja suhtautua kulutukseen. Tulkitsen kuluttajaelämäkerroista löytyvien järkevyyden, tavallisuuden ja työnteon hyveiden kertovan keskiluokkaisuudesta. Hyveellinen kuluttaminen on keskiluokkaisessa kulutuseetoksessa talonpoikaista kulutuseetosta sallivampaa. Se määrittyy niukan kuluttamisen sijaan kohtuullisen ja tavallisen kuluttamisen hyveellistämiseksi. Keskiluokkaisessa kulutuseetoksessa on hyväksyttävää nauttia kohtuudella ja järkevästi omalla työllä ansaitusta vaurastumisesta. Talonpoikaisesta kulutuseetoksesta poiketen keskiluokkainen kulutuseetos hyväksyy kulutuksesta saatavan nautinnon. Sanonta ”ensin työ, sitten huvi” kuvaa keskiluokkaisen kulutuseetoksen tapaa suhtautua vaurastumisen mukanaan tuomaan kulutuskulttuuriin ja sen nautintoihin.

"Her lively Looks a sprightly Mind disclose, Quick as her Eyes, and as unfix'd as those." - looking, fashion media, and risk culture

This chapter investigates the phenomenon of fashion from the perspective of ‘the look.’ This is achieved by the wearer (as opposed to the designer) and also forms the basis of fashion media, where it represents the ‘decisive moment’ of photography. The chapter argues that the evolving ‘look’ of fashion can be analysed to identify tensions between novelty and emulation, the unique and the universal, in contemporary consumer culture and status-based social-network markets. It explores the work of fashion photographer Corinne Day and artist Olga Tobreluts to identify the theme of ‘risk culture.’

Mobilizing the brand experience: The adoption and use of mobile media in building consumer relationships in China

This research examines why and how brand owners in China adopt and use mobile media in marketing campaigns to deliver co-creation brand experiences and build consumer relationships. China represents an interesting case to study as it has leapfrogged into the age of consumer society and mobile media adoption. As the largest mobile market globally, it has experienced the intensity of mobile technology diffusion; and with it the rise of mobile consumer culture and participatory culture. Further, the rising individualism and the socio-cultural heritage in collectivism serve as a structuring tension in how mobile media is leveraged in marketing to cater to consumers' desires for individuality and social interaction. First, through expert interviews guided by the technology-organization-environment (TOE) framework (Tornatzky & Fleischer, 1990) as well as integrating innovation diffusion theory (E. Rogers, 2003), this research attempts to fill the gap of theoretical application in mobile marketing adoption at the firm level in China, and unravel the adoption factors of mobile marketing by brand owners in China. In total, 27 semi-structured interviews were conducted with key industry informants from mobile agencies, traditional agencies, venture capital firms, mobile content and service providers, mobile portals, and marketing management at brand owners. Second, based on case studies in China, this research investigates the use of mobile marketing to facilitate innovative co-creation of brand experience to cater to both individualistic as well as collective tendencies and desires amongst Chinese consumers. Through multiple case studies of the campaigns conducted by Nokia, Clean & Clear, and The North Face, and informed by in-depth interviews and document analysis, this research analyses the role of mobile media in marketing campaigns along three dimensions: the role of mobile media in content generation and consumption, the centrality of mobile media as text, tools or platforms; and the interactive environment. Specifically, the cases are organized along the spectrum from user-generated content to corporate-generated content, mobile media's role from being supplementary to it being central, and from a virtual environment to a hybrid environment. Overall, these cases demonstrate how brand owners adapt mobile media as text, tools, platforms, and environments to deliver co-creation brand experiences exploiting both individualistic as well as collective tendencies and desires amongst Chinese consumers. This research contributes to the literature on firm adoption of mobile marketing, and the role of the mobile media in facilitating co-creation experiences for Chinese consumers. It develops a model of the technological, organizational and environmental factors influencing mobile marketing adoption by firms, and provides a model explaining the role of mobile media in facilitating brand experience co-creation. The findings also demonstrate that mobile media can be leveraged to facilitate co-creation brand experience to generate added value; and meanwhile cater to both the rising individualism and the deep-seated collectivism of Chinese consumers. Empirically, it assists industry practitioners in understanding the adoption of mobile marketing in China, especially those on the supply side in order to improve their offerings and propositions. It also assists brand owners and agencies in designing their mobile marketing strategies to build consumer relationships in China.

Median muotoilema : Muotoilun mediajulkisuus suomalaisessa talouslehdistössä

Designed by the Media The Media publicity of Design in the Finnish Economic Press The meaning of design has increased in consumer societies. Design is the subject of debate and the number of media discussions has also increased steadily. Especially the role of industrial design has been emphasised. In this study I examine the media publicity of design in the Finnish economic press from the late 1980s to the beginning of the 2000s. The research question is connected to media representations: How is design represented in the Finnish economic press? In other words, what are the central topics of design in the economic press, and to what issues are the media debates connected? The usually repeated phrase that design discussions take place only on the cultural pages of the daily press or in cultural contexts is being changed. Design is also linked to the consumer culture and consumers everyday practices. The research material has been collected from the Finnish economic press. The qualitative sample consists of articles from Kauppalehti, Taloussanomat and from several economic papers published by the Talentum Corporation. The approach of the research is explorative, descriptive and hermeneutic. This means that the economic press articles are used to explore how design is represented in the media. In addition, the characteristics of design represented in the media are described in detail. The research is based on the interpretive tradition of studying textual materials. Background assumptions are thus grounded in hermeneutics. Erving Goffman s frame analysis is applied in analysing the economic press materials. The frames interpreted from the articles depict the media publicity of design in the Finnish economic press. The research opens up a multidimensional picture of design in the economic press. The analysis resulted in five frames that describe design from various points of view. In the personal frame designers are described in private settings and through their personal experiences. The second frame relates to design work. In the frame of mastery of the profession, the designers work is interpreted widely. Design is considered from the aspects of controlling personal know-how, co-operation and the overall process of design. The third frame is connected to the actual substance of the economic press. In the frame of economy and market, design is linked to international competitiveness, companies competitive advantage and benefit creation for the consumers. The fourth frame is connected to the actors promoting design on a societal level. In the communal frame, the economic press describes design policy, design research and education and other actors that actively develop design in the societal networks. The last frame is linked to the traditions of design and above all to the examination of the cultural transition. In the frame of culture the traditions of design are emphasised. Design is also connected to the industrial culture and furthermore to the themes of the consumer culture. It can be argued that the frames construct media publicity of design from various points of view. The frames describe situations, action and the actors of design. The interpreted media frames make it possible to understand the relation of interpreted design actions and the culture. Thus, media has a crucial role in representing and recreating meanings related to design. The publicity of design is characterised by the five focal themes: personification, professionalisation, commercialisation, communalisation and transition of cultural focus from the traditions of design to the industrial culture and the consumer culture. Based on my interpretation these themes are guided by the mediatisation of design. The design phenomenon is defined more often on the basis of the media representations in the public discourses. The design culture outlined in this research connects socially constructed and structurally organised action. Socially constructed action in design is connected to the experiences, social recreation and collective development of design. Structurally, design is described as professional know-how, as a process and as an economic profit generating action in the society. The events described by the media affect the way in which people experience the world, the meanings they connect to the events around themselves and their life in the world. By affecting experiences, the media indirectly affects human actions. People have become habituated to read media representations on a daily basis, but they are not used to reading and interpreting the various meanings that are incorporated in the media texts.

Kuluttajamuotti : Kuluttajuuden tuottamisesta mainonnan instituutioissa

Advertising and marketing institutions produce categorisations of different groups of population. These categorisations serve as tools for addressing the potential consumers. This research is about how and what kind of categorisations of consumerhood are produced and how they are used as governing patterns within the institutions of advertising. My goal is to shed light on methods, cultural patterns and discourses for making people become consumers, objects for marketing measures. The data consists of 23 qualitative thematic interviews with Finnish advertising professionals. Moreover, examples are drawn from professional magazines and brochures of media agencies and marketing research organisations. First, I present some of the the official consumer categories in the consumer monitors produced by research organisations. Then, I analyse the unofficial consumer categories which are produced by advertising professionals in the interviews. The methodological framework is based on discourse theory and especially on Michel Foucault s ideas on power, governmentality, and discourses. Discursive categorisation of the population is one of the means of governmentality used in marketing and advertising. Knowledge of the consumer research is used as a tool for governing the potential consumers. Even though the real consumers always have a possibility to behave against the marketer s wishes. The marketers can not make people buy certain products or services, but they aim at influencing people in a way that they want to buy the products and start to govern themselves. As result, I present six unofficial discursive consumer categories, which are used by the advertising professionals. The consumerhood may be represented as rational, self-fulfilling, indifferent, whimsical, manipulated or sovereign. However, The discursive consumer categorisations are overlapping and controversial. The interviewed advertising professionals construct their own particular position in relation to the consumers which are viewed as others . On the other, the interviewees may talk about themselves as consumers. Finally, I maintain that the consumers and target groups of advertising are viewed as commodities in advertising institutions. The end product of the product development is not only the product but the aim is to produce the consumer of the product. The research of the ways advertising professionals aim to govern the consumers gives knowledge on the networks of power in which people act within consumer culture.

Elämänmuutoksen, jännityksen ja asiantuntijuuden representointi Veikkaus Oy:n mainonnassa vuosina 1970— 2006

Aim of this master's thesis paper for consumer economics, is to research gambling advertisements in Finland over a period of 35 years, from 1970 to 2006. Veikkaus Oy (later Veikkaus), was founded in 1940, as one of the three licensed gambling organizations in Finland. Material for the current research comprised 1494 advertisements published by Veikkaus in newspapers and magazines at that time. Veikkaus has the exclusive licence to organize lotto games, sport games, instant games and other draw games in Finland. The other two operators, The Finnish Slot Machine Association RAY and Fintoto (on-track horse betting), were not included in the current analysis. This study has been completed according to research contract and grand by the Finnish Foundation for Gaming Research (Pelitoiminnan tutkimussäätiö). In general, advertisements reflect surrounding culture and time, and their message is built on stratified meanings, symbols and codes. Advertising draws the viewer's attention, introduces the advertised subject, and finally, affects the individual's consumption habits. However, advertisements not only work on individual level, but also influence public perception of the advertised product. Firstly, in order to assess gambling as a phenomenon, this paper discusses gambling as consumer behaviour, and also reviews history of gambling in Finland. Winning is a major feature of gambling, and dreaming about positive change of life is a centre of most gambling ads. However, perceived excitement through risk of losing can also be featured in gambling ads. Secondly, this study utilizes Veikkaus’ large advertising archives, were advertising data is analyzed by content analysis and the semiotic analysis. Two methods have been employed to support analyzing outcome in a synergistic way. Content analysis helps to achieve accuracy and comprehensiveness. Semiotic analysis allows deeper and more sensitive analysis to emerged findings and occurrences. It is important to understand the advertised product, as advertising is bound to the culture and time. Hence, to analyze advertising, it is important to understand the environment where the ads appear. Content analysis of Veikkaus data discovered the main gambling and principal advertisement style for each.period. Interestingly, nearly half of Veikkaus’ advertisements promoted topic other than “just winning the bet”. Games of change, like Lotto, typically advertised indirectly represented dreams about winning. In the category of skill gambling, features were represented as investment, and the excitement of sporting expertise was emphasized. In addition, there were a number of gambling ads that emphasize social responsibility of Veikkaus as a government guided organization. Semiotic methods were employed to further elaborate on findings of content analysis. Dreaming in the advertisements was represented by the product of symbols, (e.g. cars and homes) that were found to have significance connection with each other. Thus, advertising represents change of life obtained by the winning. Interestingly, gambling ads promoting jackpots were often representing religious symbolisms. Ads promoting social responsibility were found to be the most common during economical depression of the 90’s. Deeper analysis showed that at that time, advertisements frequently represented depression-related meanings, such as unemployment and bank loans. Skill gaming ads were often represented by sports expertise – late 90’s, their number started sky rocketing, and continued increasing until 2006 (when this study ended). One may conclude that sport betting draws its meanings from the relevant consumer culture, and from the rules and features of the betted sport.

Access to the countryside of England and Wales: popular leisure; commodified culture

Risk and uncertainty are, to say the least, poorly considered by most individuals involved in real estate analysis - in both development and investment appraisal. Surveyors continue to express 'uncertainty' about the value (risk) of using relatively objective methods of analysis to account for these factors. These methods attempt to identify the risk elements more explicitly. Conventionally this is done by deriving probability distributions for the uncontrolled variables in the system. A suggested 'new' way of "being able to express our uncertainty or slight vagueness about some of the qualitative judgements and not From its modern origins, associated with the urbanising effect of industrialisation, walking has remained a popular form of outdoor recreation. It has, furthermore, remained an important site of class struggle, with the 'landless' seeking to establish their moral 'citizen' right to roam over open country in contradistinction to the 'landed', who have successfully limited this right to legally-defined public rights of way. In the face of declining farm incomes, however, farmers and landowners have, apparently, modified their attitudes towards public access, but only in return for compensation and management payments under grant schemes such as Countryside Stewardship and the Countryside Premium Scheme. With the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food now seeking to extend paid access arrangements to other grant schemes, as part of its response to the European Union's Agri-Environment Regulations, access 'rights' are assuming an increasingly commodified form, thereby questioning, if not undermining, the former citizen claims. For rather than being a benefit of citizenship, the existence of limited, often poorly maintained and inadequately signposted, public rights of way has tied inextricably the extension of legally-enforceable access to the needs of the landowners and farmers. At a time of falling prosperity in agriculture, therefore, they have now exercised their discretion by annexing the populism of consumer culture to reproduce the bourgeois liberal values of the market as a principal determinant of the extension of citizen rights of access to the countryside.