Modeling and mitigation of supply-demand mismatches

In this thesis, I develop analytical models to price the value of supply chain investments under demand uncer¬tainty. This thesis includes three self-contained papers. In the first paper, we investigate the value of lead-time reduction under the risk of sudden and abnormal changes in demand forecasts. We first consider the risk of a complete and permanent loss of demand. We then provide a more general jump-diffusion model, where we add a compound Poisson process to a constant-volatility demand process to explore the impact of sudden changes in demand forecasts on the value of lead-time reduction. We use an Edgeworth series expansion to divide the lead-time cost into that arising from constant instantaneous volatility, and that arising from the risk of jumps. We show that the value of lead-time reduction increases substantially in the intensity and/or the magnitude of jumps. In the second paper, we analyze the value of quantity flexibility in the presence of supply-chain dis- intermediation problems. We use the multiplicative martingale model and the "contracts as reference points" theory to capture both positive and negative effects of quantity flexibility for the downstream level in a supply chain. We show that lead-time reduction reduces both supply-chain disintermediation problems and supply- demand mismatches. We furthermore analyze the impact of the supplier's cost structure on the profitability of quantity-flexibility contracts. When the supplier's initial investment cost is relatively low, supply-chain disin¬termediation risk becomes less important, and hence the contract becomes more profitable for the retailer. We also find that the supply-chain efficiency increases substantially with the supplier's ability to disintermediate the chain when the initial investment cost is relatively high. In the third paper, we investigate the value of dual sourcing for the products with heavy-tailed demand distributions. We apply extreme-value theory and analyze the effects of tail heaviness of demand distribution on the optimal dual-sourcing strategy. We find that the effects of tail heaviness depend on the characteristics of demand and profit parameters. When both the profit margin of the product and the cost differential between the suppliers are relatively high, it is optimal to buffer the mismatch risk by increasing both the inventory level and the responsive capacity as demand uncertainty increases. In that case, however, both the optimal inventory level and the optimal responsive capacity decrease as the tail of demand becomes heavier. When the profit margin of the product is relatively high, and the cost differential between the suppliers is relatively low, it is optimal to buffer the mismatch risk by increasing the responsive capacity and reducing the inventory level as the demand uncertainty increases. In that case, how¬ever, it is optimal to buffer with more inventory and less capacity as the tail of demand becomes heavier. We also show that the optimal responsive capacity is higher for the products with heavier tails when the fill rate is extremely high.

Propuesta de mejoramiento del sistema de inventarios para Diageo Colombia en la categoría vinos

La gestión de inventarios es uno de los grandes retos que afrontan las empresas hoy en día, especialmente aquellas que manipulan productos con altas probabilidades de daños y averías, razón por la cual definir políticas o un sistema de gestión de inventarios garantizaría una perdurabilidad y sostenibilidad en el mercado más prolongada. Es por ello que el proyecto planteado a continuación desarrollado en la empresa Diageo, multinacional de consumo masivo del sector licores, está inscrito en la línea de investigación de Gerencia de la Universidad del Rosario. De esta manera, bajo el programa de Áreas funcionales para la dirección que cuenta con un enfoque en perdurabilidad empresarial, la línea de investigación en Gerencia busca generar conocimientos sobre finanzas, mercadeo, operaciones y gestión humana. Por lo anterior, partiendo de la premisa de que una empresa perdurable es aquella que “adecúa su manejo a la intensidad de las condiciones del entorno sectorial y las fuerzas del mercado” (Leal, Guerrero, Rojas, & Rivera, 2011), se hace necesario orientar los recursos y esfuerzos de la empresa hacia una nueva política de inventarios en el portafolio de vinos, de modo que al incrementar el nivel de servicio se afecten positivamente indicadores de rentabilidad y liquidez.

Aplicação da distribuição de poisson para determinação de estoque mínimo de itens de MRO de baixo giro aplicados em manutenção de ativos industriais

Pós-graduação em Engenharia de Produção - FEB

Avaliação do Sistema Simplified Drum-Buffer-Rope em ambientes de produção para estoque

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Three “Bali Deliverables” for more Food Security

As the clock is ticking for a positive outcome at the Ninth WTO Ministerial Conference to be held in Bali in December 2013, agricultural negotiators are scrambling to find solutions to issues such as tariff-rate quota (TRQ) administration and export competition in order to improve trade flows. The main issue seems to be whether WTO rules applying to public stockpiles in developing countries need to be changed or temporarily suspended as a means to enhance national food security. This paper is based on a note submitted to the ICTSD-IPC Expert Group “Meeting on Agriculture and Food Security – Policy Options for MC9 and beyond” (Geneva, June 2013). It lists the policy instruments impacting on global, national and (urban and rural) household food security – “The Food Security Tool Box” – and asks which immediate decisions the WTO Ministers might take in this field despite the political difficulties such as continued agro-dumping practices or the “land grab” issue. Three such “deliverables” are outlined: (i) regional and “virtual” food security schemes could be allowed to provide reserves to other countries without violating the obligation to “form an integral part of a food security programme identified in national legislation” (Agreement on Agriculture, Annex II, para 3); (ii) TRQ under-fills could be improved by mandatory enquiries into low fill rate situations; and (iii) World Food Program (WFP) and other non-commercial food purchases could be exempted from export restrictions and prohibitions. High ambitions for Bali seem to be misplaced. A more realistic yet real progress could restore the dwindling credibility of the WTO as a forum for trade negotiations.

AnSBBR Applied to a Personal Care Industry Wastewater Treatment: Effects of Fill Time, Volume Treated Per Cycle, and Organic Load

A study was performed regarding the effect of the relation between fill time, volume treated per cycle, and influent concentration at different applied organic loadings on the stability and efficiency of an anaerobic sequencing batch reactor containing immobilized biomass on polyurethane foam with recirculation of the liquid phase (AnSBBR) applied to the treatment of wastewater from a personal care industry. Total cycle length of the reactor was 8 h (480 min). Fill times were 10 min in the batch operation, 4 h in the fed-batch operation, and a 10-min batch followed by a 4-h fed batch in the mixed operation. Settling time was not necessary since the biomass was immobilized and decant time was 10 min. Volume of liquid medium in the reactor was 2.5 L, whereas volume treated per cycle ranged from 0.88 to 2.5 L in accordance with fill time. Influent concentration varied from 300 to 1,425 mg COD/L, resulting in an applied volumetric organic load of 0.9 and 1.5 g COD/L.d. Recirculation flow rate was 20 L/h, and the reactor was maintained at 30 A degrees C. Values of organic matter removal efficiency of filtered effluent samples were below 71% in the batch operations and above 74% in the operations of fed batch followed by batch. Feeding wastewater during part of the operational cycle was beneficial to the system, as it resulted in indirect control over the conversion of substrate into intermediates that would negatively interfere with the biochemical reactions regarding the degradation of organic matter. As a result, the average substrate consumption increased, leading to higher organic removal efficiencies in the fed-batch operations.

Rate and processes of river network rearrangement during incipient faulting: The case of the Cahabon river, Guatemala

Deeply incised river networks are generally regarded as robust features that are not easily modified by erosion or tectonics. Although the reorganization of deeply incised drainage systems has been documented, the corresponding importance with regard to the overall landscape evolution of mountain ranges and the factors that permit such reorganizations are poorly understood. To address this problem, we have explored the rapid drainage reorganization that affected the Cahabon River in Guatemala during the Quaternary. Sediment-provenance analysis, field mapping, and electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) imaging are used to reconstruct the geometry of the valley before the river was captured. Dating of the abandoned valley sediments by the Be-10-Al-26 burial method and geomagnetic polarity analysis allow us to determine the age of the capture events and then to quantify several processes, such as the rate of tectonic deformation of the paleovalley, the rate of propagation of post-capture drainage reversal, and the rate at which canyons that formed at the capture sites have propagated along the paleovalley. Transtensional faulting started 1 to 3 million years ago, produced ground tilting and ground faulting along the Cahabon River, and thus generated differential uplift rate of 0.3 +/- 0.1 up to 0.7 +/- 0.4 mm . y(-1) along the river's course. The river responded to faulting by incising the areas of relative uplift and depositing a few tens of meters of sediment above the areas of relative subsidence. Then, the river experienced two captures and one avulsion between 700 ky and 100 ky. The captures breached high-standing ridges that separate the Cahabon River from its captors. Captures occurred at specific points where ridges are made permeable by fault damage zones and/or soluble rocks. Groundwater flow from the Cahabon River down to its captors likely increased the erosive power of the captors thus promoting focused erosion of the ridges. Valley-fill formation and capture occurred in close temporal succession, suggesting a genetic link between the two. We suggest that the aquifers accumulated within the valley-fills, increased the head along the subterraneous system connecting the Cahabon River to its captors, and promoted their development. Upon capture, the breached valley experienced widespread drainage reversal toward the capture sites. We attribute the generalized reversal to combined effects of groundwater sapping in the valley-fill, axial drainage obstruction by lateral fans, and tectonic tilting. Drainage reversal increased the size of the captured areas by a factor of 4 to 6. At the capture sites, 500 m deep canyons have been incised into the bedrock and are propagating upstream at a rate of 3 to 11 mm . y(-1) deepening at a rate of 0.7 to 1 5 mm . y(-1). At this rate, 1 to 2 million years will be necessary for headward erosion to completely erase the topographic expression of the paleovalley. It is concluded that the rapid reorganization of this drainage system was made possible by the way the river adjusted to the new tectonic strain field, which involved transient sedimentation along the river's course. If the river had escaped its early reorganization and had been given the time necessary to reach a new dynamic equilibrium, then the transient conditions that promoted capture would have vanished and its vulnerability to capture would have been strongly reduced.

Reclaimed Fly Ash as Select Fill Under PCC Pavement, November 1999

With the support of the Iowa Fly Ash Affiliates, research on reclaimed fly ash for use as a construction material has been ongoing since 1991. The material exhibits engineering properties similar to those of soft limestone or sandstone and a lightweight aggregate. It is unique in that it is rich in calcium, silica, and aluminum and exhibits pozzolanic properties (i.e. gains strength over time) when used untreated or when a calcium activator is added. Reclaimed Class C fly ashes have been successfully used as a base material on a variety of construction projects in southern and western Iowa. A pavement design guide has been developed with the support of the Iowa Fly Ash Affiliates. Soils in Iowa generally rate fair to poor as subgrade soils for paving projects. This is especially true in the southern quarter of the state and for many areas of eastern and western Iowa. Many of the soil types encountered for highway projects are unsuitable soils under the current Iowa DOT specifications. The bulk of the remaining soils are Class 10 soils. Select soils for use directly under the pavement are often difficult to find on a project, and in many instances are economically unavailable. This was the case for a 4.43-mile grading (STP-S- 90(22)-SE-90) and paving project in Wapello County. The project begins at the Alliant Utilities generating station in Chillicothe, Iowa, and runs west to the Monroe-Wapello county line. This road carries a significant amount of truck traffic hauling coal from the generating station to the Cargill corn processing plant in Eddyville, Iowa. The proposed 10-inch Portland Cement Concrete (PCC) pavement was for construction directly on a Class 10 soil subgrade, which is not a desirable condition if other alternatives are available. Wapello County Engineer Wendell Folkerts supported the use of reclaimed fly ash for a portion of the project. Construction of about three miles of the project was accomplished using 10 inches of reclaimed fly ash as a select fill beneath the PCC slab. The remaining mile was constructed according to the original design to be used as a control section for performance monitoring. The project was graded during the summers of 1998 and 1999. Paving was completed in the fall of 1999. This report presents the results of design considerations and laboratory and field testing results during construction. Recommendations for use of reclaimed fly ash as a select fill are also presented.

Fatigue crack growth rate in mode I of a carbon fiber 5HS weave composite laminate processed via RTM

Delamination or crack propagation between plies is a critical issue for structural composites. In viewing this issue and the large application of woven fabrics in structural applications, especially the ones that requires high drapeability to be preformed in a RTM mold cavity such as the asymmetric ones, e.g HS series, this research aimed in dynamically testing the carbon fiber 5HS/RTM6 epoxy composites under opening mode using DCB set up in order to investigate the crack growth rate behavior in an irregular surface produced by the fabric waviness. The evaluation of the energy involved in each crack increment was based on the Irwin-Kies equation using compliance beam theory. The tests were conducted at constant stress ratio of R=0.1 with displacement control, frequency of 10 Hz, in accordance to ASTM E647-00 for measurement of crack growth rate. The results showed large scatter when compared to unidirectional carbon fiber composites due to damage accumulation at the fill tows.

Potential yield and water-use effficiency benefits in sorghum from limited maximum transpiration rate

Limitations on maximum transpiration rates, which are commonly observed as midday stomatal closure, have been observed even under well-watered conditions. Such limitations may be caused by restricted hydraulic conductance in the plant or by limited supply of water to the plant from uptake by the roots. This behaviour would have the consequences of limiting photosynthetic rate, increasing transpiration efficiency, and conserving soil water. A key question is whether the conservation of water will be rewarded by sustained growth during seed fill and increased grain yield. This simulation analysis was undertaken to examine consequences on sorghum yield over several years when maximum transpiration rate was imposed in a model. Yields were simulated at four locations in the sorghum-growing area of Australia for 115 seasons at each location. Mean yield was increased slightly ( 5 - 7%) by setting maximum transpiration rate at 0.4 mm h(-1). However, the yield increase was mainly in the dry, low-yielding years in which growers may be more economically vulnerable. In years with yield less than similar to 450 g m(-2), the maximum transpiration rate trait resulted in yield increases of 9 - 13%. At higher yield levels, decreased yields were simulated. The yield responses to restricted maximum transpiration rate were associated with an increase in efficiency of water use. This arose because transpiration was reduced at times of the day when atmospheric demand was greatest. Depending on the risk attitude of growers, incorporation of a maximum transpiration rate trait in sorghum cultivars could be desirable to increase yields in dry years and improve water use efficiency and crop yield stability.

Ecological studies on high-rate biological filters with special reference to microbial biosynthesis and nitrification

Pilot scale studies of high rate filtration were initiated to assess its potential as either a primary 'roughing' filter to alleviate the seasonal overloading of low rate filters on Hereford sewage treatment works - caused by wastes from cider production - or as a two stage high rate process to provide complete sewage treatment. Four mineral and four plastic primary filter media and two plastic secondary filter media were studied. The hydraulic loading applied to the primary plastic media (11.2 m3 /m3 .d) was twice that applied to the mineral media. The plastic media removed an average around 66 percent and the mineral media around 73 percent of the BOD applied when the 90 percentile BOD concentration was 563 mg/1. At a hydraulic loading of 4 m3 /m3 .d the secondary filters removed most of the POD from partially settled primary filter effluents, with one secondary effluent satisfying a 25 mg/1 BOD and 30 mg/1 SS standard. No significant degree of nitrification was achieved. Fungi dominated the biological film of the primary filters, with invertebrate grazers having little influence on film levels. Ponding did not arise, and modular media supported lower film levels than random-fill types. Secondary filter film levels were low, being dominated by bacteria. The biological loading applied to the filters was related to sludge dewaterability, with the most readily conditionable sludges produced by filters supporting heavy film. Sludges produced by random-fill media could be dewatered as readily as those produced by low rate filters treating the same sewage. Laboratory scale studies showed a relationship between log effluent BOD and nitrification achieved by biological filters. This relationship and the relationship between BOD load applied and removed observed in all filter media could he used to optimise operating conditions required in biological filters to achieve given effluent BOD and ammoniacal nitrogen standards.

Developmental Rate Of Immatures Of Two Fly Species Of Forensic Importance: Sarcophaga (liopygia) Ruficornis And Microcerella Halli (diptera: Sarcophagidae).

Since insect species are poikilothermic organisms, they generally exhibit different growth patterns depending on the temperature at which they develop. This factor is important in forensic entomology, especially for estimating postmortem interval (PMI) when it is based on the developmental time of the insects reared in decomposing bodies. This study aimed to estimate the rates of development, viability, and survival of immatures of Sarcophaga (Liopygia) ruficornis (Fabricius 1794) and Microcerella halli (Engel 1931) (Diptera: Sarcophagidae) reared in different temperatures: 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, and 35 ± 1 °C. Bovine raw ground meat was offered as food for all experimental groups, each consisting of four replicates, in the proportion of 2 g/larva. To measure the evolution of growth, ten specimens of each group were randomly chosen and weighed every 12 h, from initial feeding larva to pupae, and then discarded. Considering the records of weight gain, survival rates, and stability of growth rates, the range of optimum temperature for the development of S. (L.) ruficornis is between 20 and 35 °C, and that of M. halli is between 20 and 25 °C. For both species, the longest times of development were in the lowest temperatures. The survival rate at extreme temperatures (10 and 35 °C) was lower in both species. Biological data such as the ones obtained in this study are of great importance to achieve a more accurate estimate of the PMI.

Electrocardiogram, Heart Movement And Heart Rate In The Awake Gecko (hemidactylus Mabouia).

The electrocardiogram (ECG) is the simplest and most effective non-invasive method to assess the electrical activity of the heart and to obtain information on the heart rate (HR) and rhythm. Because information on the HR of very small reptiles (body mass <10 g) is still scarce in the literature, in the present work we describe a procedure for recording the ECG in non-anesthetized geckos (Hemidactylus mabouia, Moreau de Jonnès, 1818) under different conditions, namely manual restraint (MR), spontaneous tonic immobility (TI), and in the non-restrained condition (NR). In the gecko ECG, the P, QRS and T waves were clearly distinguishable. The HR was 2.83 ± 0.02 Hz under MR, which was significantly greater (p < 0.001) than the HR under the TI (1.65 ± 0.09 Hz) and NR (1.60 ± 0.10 Hz) conditions. Spontaneously beating isolated gecko hearts contracted at 0.84 ± 0.03 Hz. The in vitro beating rate was affected in a concentration-dependent fashion by adrenoceptor stimulation with noradrenaline, as well as by the muscarinic cholinergic agonist carbachol, which produced significant positive and negative chronotropic effects, respectively (p < 0.001). To our knowledge, this is the first report on the ECG morphology and HR values in geckos, particularly under TI. The methodology and instrumentation developed here are useful for non-invasive in vivo physiological and pharmacological studies in small reptiles without the need of physical restraint or anesthesia.

Experimental determination of benzene uptake rate in Tenax TA diffusive samplers

This paper proposes a methodology to predict benzene uptake rate in ambient air, using passive samplers with Tenax TA. Variations in the uptake rate were found to occur as a function of the sampling time; and were greater at the beginning of sampling. An empirical model was obtained and values for uptake rate agree with literature. Concentration prediction errors can be minimized by using sampling times of 4 to 14 days, thus avoiding the influence of excessive uptake rates in the initial days and the influence of back diffusion at the end of the sampling period.