Field validation of controlled Monte Carlo data generation for statistical damage identification employing Mahalanobis squared distance

This article presents the field applications and validations for the controlled Monte Carlo data generation scheme. This scheme was previously derived to assist the Mahalanobis squared distance–based damage identification method to cope with data-shortage problems which often cause inadequate data multinormality and unreliable identification outcome. To do so, real-vibration datasets from two actual civil engineering structures with such data (and identification) problems are selected as the test objects which are then shown to be in need of enhancement to consolidate their conditions. By utilizing the robust probability measures of the data condition indices in controlled Monte Carlo data generation and statistical sensitivity analysis of the Mahalanobis squared distance computational system, well-conditioned synthetic data generated by an optimal controlled Monte Carlo data generation configurations can be unbiasedly evaluated against those generated by other set-ups and against the original data. The analysis results reconfirm that controlled Monte Carlo data generation is able to overcome the shortage of observations, improve the data multinormality and enhance the reliability of the Mahalanobis squared distance–based damage identification method particularly with respect to false-positive errors. The results also highlight the dynamic structure of controlled Monte Carlo data generation that makes this scheme well adaptive to any type of input data with any (original) distributional condition.

Field validation of the 'Logie' fish counter at Forge weir on the River Lune, 1992

The stock assessment task group report (1991) mentions that fish counters could play a key role in providing data on the size of the adult stock, and in particular the migratory salmonid stock. This report assesses the performance of the 'logie' fish counter at Forge Weir on the River Lune. Using video surveillance, a total of 1137 hours time lapse and 15 hours real time were used for validation purposes. This report looks at materials and methods, counting accuracy, sizing ability and environmental conditions, performance across the electrode array and salmonid swimming speed.

An eDNA assay for Irish Petromyzon marinus and Salmo trutta and field validation in running water.

This pilot study presents an environmental DNA (eDNA) assay for sea lamprey Petromyzon marinus and brown trout Salmo trutta, two species of economic and conservation importance in the Republic of Ireland. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of eDNA for assessing presence of low-abundance taxa (here, P. marinus) for environmental managers, and they highlight the potential for assessing relative abundance of rare or invasive freshwater species.

Identification of prey captures in Australian Fur Seals (Arctocephalus pusillus doriferus) using head-mounted accelerometers: field validation with animal-borne video cameras

This study investigated prey captures in free-ranging adult female Australian fur seals (Arctocephalus pusillus doriferus) using head-mounted 3-axis accelerometers and animal-borne video cameras. Acceleration data was used to identify individual attempted prey captures (APC), and video data were used to independently verify APC and prey types. Results demonstrated that head-mounted accelerometers could detect individual APC but were unable to distinguish among prey types (fish, cephalopod, stingray) or between successful captures and unsuccessful capture attempts. Mean detection rate (true positive rate) on individual animals in the testing subset ranged from 67-100%, and mean detection on the testing subset averaged across 4 animals ranged from 82-97%. Mean False positive (FP) rate ranged from 15-67% individually in the testing subset, and 26-59% averaged across 4 animals. Surge and sway had significantly greater detection rates, but also conversely greater FP rates compared to heave. Video data also indicated that some head movements recorded by the accelerometers were unrelated to APC and that a peak in acceleration variance did not always equate to an individual prey item. The results of the present study indicate that head-mounted accelerometers provide a complementary tool for investigating foraging behaviour in pinnipeds, but that detection and FP correction factors need to be applied for reliable field application.

[Field validation of a real-time PCR test for the detection of Mycoplasma hyopneumoniae in nasal swabs of live pigs]

Enzootic pneumonia (EP) of pigs, caused by Mycoplasma hyopneumoniae has been a notifiable disease in Switzerland since May 2003. The diagnosis of EP has been based on multiple methods, including clinical, bacteriological and epidemiological findings as well as pathological examination of lungs (mosaic diagnosis). With the recent development of a real-time PCR (rtPCR) assay with 2 target sequences a new detection method for M. hyopneumoniae became available. This assay was tested for its applicability to nasal swab material from live animals. Pigs from 74 herds (average 10 pigs per herd) were tested. Using the mosaic diagnosis, 22 herds were classified as EP positive and 52 as EP negative. From the 730 collected swab samples we were able to demonstrate that the rtPCR test was 100% specific. In cases of cough the sensitivity on herd level of the rtPCR is 100%. On single animal level and in herds without cough the sensitivity was lower. In such cases, only a positive result would be proof for an infection with M. hyopneumoniae. Our study shows that the rtPCR on nasal swabs from live pigs allows a fast and accurate diagnosis in cases of suspected EP.

An investigation on the accuracy of regional ocean models through field trials

Recent efforts in mission planning for underwater vehicles have utilised predictive models to aid in navigation, optimal path planning and drive opportunistic sampling. Although these models provide information at a unprecedented resolutions and have proven to increase accuracy and effectiveness in multiple campaigns, most are deterministic in nature. Thus, predictions cannot be incorporated into probabilistic planning frameworks, nor do they provide any metric on the variance or confidence of the output variables. In this paper, we provide an initial investigation into determining the confidence of ocean model predictions based on the results of multiple field deployments of two autonomous underwater vehicles. For multiple missions conducted over a two-month period in 2011, we compare actual vehicle executions to simulations of the same missions through the Regional Ocean Modeling System in an ocean region off the coast of southern California. This comparison provides a qualitative analysis of the current velocity predictions for areas within the selected deployment region. Ultimately, we present a spatial heat-map of the correlation between the ocean model predictions and the actual mission executions. Knowing where the model provides unreliable predictions can be incorporated into planners to increase the utility and application of the deterministic estimations.

Paramedic identification of stroke : community validation of the Melbourne ambulance stroke screen

Background: Paramedics require an effective prehospital tool to eliminate stroke mimics and to assist in the identification of suitable candidates for thrombolytic therapy. The Faster Access to Stroke Therapies study combined two validated stroke assessment tools (the Los Angeles Prehospital Stroke Screen, LAPSS, and the Cincinnati Prehospital Stroke Scale, CPSS) to form the Melbourne Ambulance Stroke Screen (MASS), and performed an in-field validation by Australian paramedics.

Methods: Over a 12-month period, 18 paramedics participated in the Faster Access to Stroke Therapies study and prospectively collected data contained in the MASS on all stroke dispatches, and for other patients with a focal neurological deficit. Sensitivity and specificity analysis of the LAPSS, CPSS and MASS was calculated and equivalence analysis performed.

Results: Paramedics completed 100 MASS assessments for 73 (73%) stroke/transient ischemic attack patients and 27 (27%) stroke mimics. The sensitivity of the MASS (90%, 95% CI: 81-96%) showed statistical equivalence to the sensitivity of the CPSS (95%, p = 0.45) and superiority to the LAPSS (78%, p = 0.008). The specificity of the MASS (74%, 95% CI: 53-88%) was equivalent to that of the LAPSS (85%, p = 0.25) and superior to the CPSS (54%, p = 0.007). All patients misidentified by the MASS (7 strokes, 7 mimics) were ineligible for thrombolytic therapy.

Conclusion: The MASS is simple to use, with accurate prehospital identification of stroke. It distinguishes stroke mimics, with good recognition of suitable patients for thrombolytic therapy.

Integrated Cotton Farming Systems for Central Queensland

This project has delivered outcomes that address major agronomic and crop protection issues closely linked to the profitability and sustainability of cotton production enterprises in CQ. From an agronomic perspective, the CQ environment was always though to support economically viable cotton production in a wide sowing window from the middle of September to early January prior to this research. The ideal positioning of Bollgard II varieties in the CQ planting window was, therefore, critical to the future of the local cotton industry because growers needed baseline information to determine how best to take advantage of the higher yield potential offered by the Bt cotton technology, optimise irrigation water use and fibre characteristics. The project’s outputs include a number of key agronomic findings. Over three growing seasons, Bollgard II crop planted in the traditional sowing window from the middle of September to the end of October consistently produced the highest yields. The project delivers a clear and quantitative assessment of the impacts of planting outside the traditional cropping window - a yield penalty of between 1-4 bales/ha for November and December planted cotton. Whilst yield penalties associated with December-planted crops are clearly linked to declining heat units in the second half of the crop and a cool finish, those associated with November-planted cotton are not consistent with the theoretical yield potential for this sowing date. Further research to understand and minimize the physiological constraints on November-planted cotton would give CQ cotton growers far greater flexibility to develop mixed/double/rotation cropping farming systems that are relevant to the rapidly evolving nature of Agricultural production in Australia. The equivalence of cultivar types with clearly distinguishable, genetically based growth habits, demonstrated in this project, gives growers important information for making varietal choices. The entomological outcomes of this project represent strategic and tactical tools that are highly relevant to the viability and profitability of the cotton industry in Australia. The future of the cotton industry is inextricably linked to the survival and efficacy of GM cotton. Research done in the Callide irrigation area demonstrates the unquestionable potential for development of alternative and highly effective resistance management strategies for Bollgard II using novel technologies and strategies based on products such as Magnet®. Magnet® and similar technologies will be increasingly important in strategies to preserve the shelf life and efficacy of current and future generations of GM technology. However, more research will be required to address logistical and operational issues related to these new technologies before they can be fully exploited in commercial production systems. From an economic perspective, SLW is the sleeping giant in terms of insect nemeses of cotton, particularly from the standpoint of climate change and an increasingly warmer production environment. An effective sampling and management strategy for SLW which has been delivered by this project will go a long way towards minimising production costs in an environment characterised by rapidly rising input costs. SLW has the potential to permanently debilitate the national cotton industry by influencing market sentiment and quality perceptions. Field validation of the SLW population sampling models and management options in the Dawson irrigation area cotton and southern Queensland during 2006-07 documents the robustness of the entomological research outcomes achieved through this project.

Preliminary comparison of natural versus model-predicted recovery of vessel-generated seagrass injuries in Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary

Each year, more than 500 motorized vessel groundings cause widespread damage to seagrasses in Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary (FKNMS). Under Section 312 of the National Marine Sanctuaries Act (NMSA), any party responsible for the loss, injury, or destruction of any Sanctuary resource, including seagrass, is liable to the United States for response costs and resulting damages. As part of the damage assessment process, a cellular automata model is utilized to forecast seagrass recovery rates. Field validation of these forecasts was accomplished by comparing model-predicted percent recovery to that which was observed to be occurring naturally for 30 documented vessel grounding sites. Model recovery forecasts for both Thalassia testudinum and Syringodium filiforme exceeded natural recovery estimates for 93.1% and 89.5% of the sites, respectively. For Halodule wrightii, the number of over- and under-predictions by the model was similar. However, where under-estimation occurred, it was often severe, reflecting the well-known extraordinary growth potential of this opportunistic species. These preliminary findings indicate that the recovery model is consistently generous to Responsible Parties in that the model forecasts a much faster recovery than was observed to occur naturally, particularly for T. testudinum, the dominant seagrass species in the region and the species most often affected. Environmental setting (i.e., location, wave exposure) influences local seagrass landscape pattern and may also play a role in the recovery dynamics for a particular injury site. An examination of the relationship between selected environmental factors and injury recovery dynamics is currently underway. (PDF file contains 20 pages.)

Shallow-water benthic habitats of St. John, U.S. Virgin Islands

Coral reef ecosystems of the Virgin Islands Coral Reef National Monument, Virgin Islands National Park and the surrounding waters of St. John, U.S. Virgin Islands are a precious natural resource worthy of special protection and conservation. The mosaic of habitats including coral reefs, seagrasses and mangroves, are home to a diversity of marine organisms. These benthic habitats and their associated inhabitants provide many important ecosystem services to the community of St. John, such as fishing, tourism and shoreline protection. However, coral reef ecosystems throughout the U.S. Caribbean are under increasing pressure from environmental and anthropogenic stressors that threaten to destroy the natural heritage of these marine habitats. Mapping of benthic habitats is an integral component of any effective ecosystem-based management approach. Through the implementation of a multi-year interagency agreement, NOAA’s Center for Coastal Monitoring and Assessment - Biogeography Branch and the U.S. National Park Service (NPS) have completed benthic habitat mapping, field validation and accuracy assessment of maps for the nearshore marine environment of St. John. This work is an expansion of ongoing mapping and monitoring efforts conducted by NOAA and NPS in the U.S. Caribbean and replaces previous NOAA maps generated by Kendall et al. (2001) for the waters around St. John. The use of standardized protocols enables the condition of the coral reef ecosystems around St. John to be evaluated in context to the rest of the Virgin Island Territories and other U.S. coral ecosystems. The products from this effort provide an accurate assessment of the abundance and distribution of marine habitats surrounding St. John to support more effective management and conservation of ocean resources within the National Park system. This report documents the entire process of benthic habitat mapping in St. John. Chapter 1 provides a description of the benthic habitat classification scheme used to categorize the different habitats existing in the nearshore environment. Chapter 2 describes the steps required to create a benthic habitat map from visual interpretation of remotely sensed imagery. Chapter 3 details the process of accuracy assessment and reports on the thematic accuracy of the final maps. Finally, Chapter 4 is a summary of the basic map content and compares the new maps to a previous NOAA effort. Benthic habitat maps of the nearshore marine environment of St. John, U.S. Virgin Islands were created by visual interpretation of remotely sensed imagery. Overhead imagery, including color orthophotography and IKONOS satellite imagery, proved to be an excellent source from which to visually interpret the location, extent and attributes of marine habitats. NOAA scientists were able to accurately and reliably delineate the boundaries of features on digital imagery using a Geographic Information System (GIS) and fi eld investigations. The St. John habitat classification scheme defined benthic communities on the basis of four primary coral reef ecosystem attributes: 1) broad geographic zone, 2) geomorphological structure type, 3) dominant biological cover, and 4) degree of live coral cover. Every feature in the benthic habitat map was assigned a designation at each level of the scheme. The ability to apply any component of this scheme was dependent on being able to identify and delineate a given feature in remotely sensed imagery.

Dinâmica espacial e temporal do ravinamento na margem esquerda da bacia do Baixo Tejo : formas, processos e factores

Tese de doutoramento, Geografia (Geografia Física), Universidade de Lisboa, Instituto de Geografia e Ordenamento do Território, 2014