International real business cycles : a re-visit

It is well known that several quantitative properties of international real business cycle models with are at odds with the data. First, the cross-country correlations are much higher for consumption than for output, while in the data the opposite is true (the BKK puzzle). Second, cross-country correlations of employment and investment are negative, while in the data they are positive. This paper quantitatively shows that preferences with a zero income effect on labor supply help generate a correct cross-country correlation in employment even without any restrictions on financial markets. In a bond economy, a zero income effect in labor supply, combined with time-to-build investment, can generate a positive cross-country correlation in investment, and the BKK puzzle is also resolved when the inter-temporal elasticity of substitution in labor supply is low.

International Business Cycles: What Are the Facts?

Modern business cycle theory involves developing models that explain stylized facts. For this strategy to be successful, these facts should be well established. In this paper, we focus on the stylized facts of international business cycles. We use the generalized method of moments and quarterly data from nineteen industrialized countries to estimate pairwise cross-country and within-country correlations of macroeconomic aggregates. We calculate standard errors of the statistics for our unique panel of data and test hypotheses about the relative sizes of these correlations. We find a lower cross-country correlation of all aggregates and especially of consumption than in previous studies. The cross-country correlations of consumption, output and Solow residuals are not significantly different from one another over the whole sample, but there are significant differences in the post-1973 subsample.

International business cycles and remittance flows

In this paper, we study the macroeconomic determinants of remittance flows. We place particular attention to fluctuations in remittance flows over the international business cycles. Estimating a dynamic panel data model using the system-GMM method over the period 1970–2007, we document that remittance inflows decrease with home country volatility. Contrarily, remittance inflows increase with the volatility in host countries, especially for middle-income countries. Lower interest rates in host countries lead to larger remittance outflows. Trade and capital account openness are the most important factors that determine both remittance inflows and outflows. We conclude that macroeconomic factors of both home and host countries are important for understanding remittance flows.

Asymmetries in Business Cycles

Esta disertación busca estudiar los mecanismos de transmisión que vinculan el comportamiento de agentes y firmas con las asimetrías presentes en los ciclos económicos. Para lograr esto, se construyeron tres modelos DSGE. El en primer capítulo, el supuesto de función cuadrática simétrica de ajuste de la inversión fue removido, y el modelo canónico RBC fue reformulado suponiendo que des-invertir es más costoso que invertir una unidad de capital físico. En el segundo capítulo, la contribución más importante de esta disertación es presentada: la construcción de una función de utilidad general que anida aversión a la pérdida, aversión al riesgo y formación de hábitos, por medio de una función de transición suave. La razón para hacerlo así es el hecho de que los individuos son aversos a la pérdidad en recesiones, y son aversos al riesgo en auges. En el tercer capítulo, las asimetrías en los ciclos económicos son analizadas junto con ajuste asimétrico en precios y salarios en un contexto neokeynesiano, con el fin de encontrar una explicación teórica de la bien documentada asimetría presente en la Curva de Phillips.

Inflation targeting in Korea, Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines : the impact on business cycle synchronization between each country and the world

This paper empirically analyzes whether and to what extent the adoption of inflation targeting (IT) in Korea, Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines has affected their business cycle synchronization with the rest of the world. By employing the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) model developed by Engle (2002), we find that IT in Asia has little effect on international business cycle synchronization and the effect is positive in some of the countries, if any. These findings basically seem to be consistent with the evidence from relevant literature.

Business cycles in emerging economies : the role of interest rates

This paper documents the empirical relation between the interest rates that emerging economies face in international capital markets and their business cycles. It shows that the patterns observed in the data can be interpreted as the equilibrium of a dynamic general equilibrium model of a small open economy, in which (i) firms have to pay for a fraction of the input bill before production takes place, and (ii) preferences generate a labor supply that is independent of the interest rate. In our sample, interest rates are strongly countercyclical, strongly positively correlated with net exports, and they lead the cycle. Output is very volatile and consumption is more volatile than output. The sample includes data for Argentina during 1983-2000 and for four other large emerging economies, Brazil, Mexico, Korea, and Philippines, during 1994-2000. The model is calibrated to Argentina’s economy for the period 1983-1999. When the model is fed with actual US interest rates and the actual default spreads of Argentine sovereign interest rates, interest rates alone can explain forty percent of output fluctuations. When simulated technology shocks are added to the model, it can account for the main empirical regularities of Argentina’s economy during the period. A 1% increase in country risk causes a contemporaneous fall in output of 0.5 ’subsequent recovery. An increase in US rates causes output to fall by the same on impact and by almost 2% two years after the shock. The asymetry in the effect of shocks to US rates and country risk is due to the fact that US interest rates are more persistent than country risk and that there is a significant spillover effect from US interest rates to country risk.

Konjunktúraingadozások az Egyesült Államokban 1970-2010 - Értelmezési nehézségek = Business cycles and recession patterns in the US economy and in the G7

Lehet-e beszélni a 2011-ig felgyülemlett empirikus tapasztalatok tükrében egy egységes válságlefolyásról, amely a fejlett ipari országok egészére általában jellemző, és a meghatározó országok esetében is megragadható? Megállapíthatók-e olyan univerzális változások a kibocsátás, a munkapiacok, a fogyasztás, valamint a beruházás tekintetében, amelyek jól illeszkednek a korábbi tapasztalatokhoz, nem kevésbé az ismert makromodellek predikcióihoz? A válasz – legalábbis jelen sorok írásakor – nemleges: sem a válság lefolyásának jellegzetességeiben és a makrogazdasági teljesítmények romlásának ütemében, sem a visszacsúszás mértékében és időbeli kiterjedésében sincsenek jól azonosítható közös jegyek, olyanok, amelyek a meglévő elméleti keretekbe jól beilleszthetők. A tanulmány áttekinti a válsággal és a makrogazdasági sokkokkal foglalkozó empirikus irodalom – a pénzügyi globalizáció értelmezései nyomán – relevánsnak tartott munkáit. Ezt követően egy 60 év távlatát átfogó vizsgálatban próbáljuk megítélni a recessziós időszakokban az amerikai gazdaság teljesítményét azzal a célkitűzéssel, hogy az elmúlt válság súlyosságának megítélése kellően objektív lehessen, legalább a fontosabb makrováltozók elmozdulásának nagyságrendje tekintetében. / === / Based on the empirical evidence accumulated until 2011, using official statistics from the OECD data bank and the US Commerce Department, the article addresses the question whether one can, or cannot, speak about generally observable recession/crisis patterns, such that were to be universally recognized in all major industrial countries (the G7). The answer to this question is a firm no. Changes and volatility in most major macroeconomic indicators such as output-gap, labor market distortions and large deviations from trend in consumption and in investment did all, respectively, exhibit wide differences in depth and width across the G7 countries. The large deviations in output-gaps and especially strong distortions in labor market inputs and hours per capita worked over the crisis months can hardly be explained by the existing model classes of DSGE and those of the real business cycle. Especially bothering are the difficulties in fitting the data into any established model whether business cycle or some other types, in which financial distress reduces economic activity. It is argued that standard business cycle models with financial market imperfections have no mechanism for generating deviation from standard theory, thus they do not shed light on the key factors underlying the 2007–2009 recession. That does not imply that the financial crisis is unimportant in understanding the recession, but it does indicate however, that we do not fully understand the channels through which financial distress reduced labor input. Long historical trends on the privately held portion of the federal debt in the US economy indicate that the standard macro proposition of public debt crowding out private investment and thus inhibiting growth, can be strongly challenged in so far as this ratio is neither a direct indicator of growth slowing down, nor for recession.

A discussion of Fashion Victims: Various responses to the report by War on Want, Critical Perspectives on International Business, Vol. 3 Iss: 2, pp.170 - 185

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to present a selection of responses to the report Fashion Victims, published by War on Want in December 2006. It offers a range of viewpoints presented by members of the Editorial Advisory Board of CPOIB. These are presented in chronological order of submission. There is some cross-reference by contributors to the work of others, but no attempt is made to present a unified argument. Design/methodology/approach – Presents the full contributions of involved participants, without mediation or editorial change. Findings – A number of different perspectives are presented on the central issue that is summarised by the opening heading in War on Want’s report – “How cheap is too cheap?” It is seen that the answer to this question is very much dependent upon the standpoint of the respondent. Originality/value – In presenting this form of commentary, members of the CPOIB Editorial Board seek to stimulate debate about an issue of concern to contemporary society, without resort to the time delay and mediating processes of peer-review normally attached to academic writing. It is hoped that this discussion will provoke further contributions and a widening of the debate. Keywords Corporate social responsibility, Multinational companies, Conditions of employment, Trade unions

Countercyclical markups and news-driven business cycles

The standard one-sector real business cycle model is unable to generate expectations-driven fluctuations. The addition of countercyclical mark-ups and modest investment adjustment costs offers an easy fix to this conundrum. The simulated model replicates the regular features of U.S. aggregate fluctuations.

How international entrepreneurship characteristics influence Internet capabilities for the international business processes of the firm

This research explores the relationship between international entrepreneurship characteristics and the use of Internet capabilities for the international business processes of the firm. It has been suggested, that the accumulation of a firms Internet capability can assist international operations, especially when operating in fast changing dynamic Internet environments. However, international entrepreneurship characteristics which are seen as a precursor to leveraging Internet capabilities are still vague. Given this finding, eight case studies of small and medium sized travel and tourism firms were selected to investigate the influence of international entrepreneurship characteristics, and Internet capabilities for international business processes. Based on the eight in-depth case studies, the results signify that successful international entrepreneurial firms which encompass high levels of international innovativeness and proactiveness behaviour integrate Internet capabilities to a greater degree. Our findings also indicate that the prior international business experience, international risk-taking propensity and international networking characteristics are not necessarily precursors to successful integration of Internet capabilities for international business processes. On the contrary, international business experience and international networks actually lead to a reliance on traditional mechanisms of internationalisation and can dilute the development of Internet capabilities for international business processes.

The influence of technology-mediated environments on international business experience for internationalisation: Does international experience matter?

This paper examines the role and importance of international business experience for firms operating in technologically-mediated environments. Although the key success factors of international expansion have been subject to extensive research in the international business literature, the analysis of technology-mediated environments on international business experience remains limited. This finding is unexpected given that the Internet and the technologies that have enabled it have profoundly transformed the ways in which international business is conducted. This is especially so for firms in the Australian region where the Internet has allowed business to access the scale of markets they need to grow and operate globally (Google and PWC, 2015). Given that businesses of the future will need to innovate quicker and more effectively in online settings to remain competitive, it seems appropriate that we re-visit the more traditional facets of internationalisation; such as the necessity of international business experience for firm performance. In doing so, the empirical section of this paper focuses on twelve Australian international entrepreneurial firms, who in varying degrees utilise technology to leverage their internationalisation activities. The findings suggest that international entrepreneurs with lower levels of international business experience still achieve international performance outcomes. The findings indicate that firms are recognising that the ability to adapt and evolve quickly in technologically-advanced settings is imperative. The findings also suggest that international entrepreneurs are relying less on traditional facets of international business experience, and are learning in self-taught or autodidactic ways. This is because businesses in the current global climate are now operating in complex and highly dynamic environments, characterised by rapid change; thus, the findings suggest that international business experience is becoming less important due to the evolving nature of international business environments.