One Approach for the Optimization of Estimates Calculating Algorithms

In this article the new approach for optimization of estimations calculating algorithms is suggested. It can be used for finding the correct algorithm of minimal complexity in the context of algebraic approach for pattern recognition.

"AVO-Polynom" Recognition Algorithm

Estimates Calculating Algorithms have a long story of application to recognition problems. Furthermore they have formed a basis for algebraic recognition theory. Yet use of ECA polynomials was limited to theoretical reasoning because of complexity of their construction and optimization. The new recognition method “AVO- polynom” based upon ECA polynomial of simple structure is described.

Desenvolvimento de um método de análise digital para o teste do cometa corado pela prata

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Exact error estimates and optimal randomized algorithms for integration

Exact error estimates for evaluating multi-dimensional integrals are considered. An estimate is called exact if the rates of convergence for the low- and upper-bound estimate coincide. The algorithm with such an exact rate is called optimal. Such an algorithm has an unimprovable rate of convergence. The problem of existing exact estimates and optimal algorithms is discussed for some functional spaces that define the regularity of the integrand. Important for practical computations data classes are considered: classes of functions with bounded derivatives and Holder type conditions. The aim of the paper is to analyze the performance of two optimal classes of algorithms: deterministic and randomized for computing multidimensional integrals. It is also shown how the smoothness of the integrand can be exploited to construct better randomized algorithms.

Independent uncertainty estimates for coefficient based sea surface temperature retrieval from the Along-Trck Scanning Radiometer instruments

We establish a methodology for calculating uncertainties in sea surface temperature estimates from coefficient based satellite retrievals. The uncertainty estimates are derived independently of in-situ data. This enables validation of both the retrieved SSTs and their uncertainty estimate using in-situ data records. The total uncertainty budget is comprised of a number of components, arising from uncorrelated (eg. noise), locally systematic (eg. atmospheric), large scale systematic and sampling effects (for gridded products). The importance of distinguishing these components arises in propagating uncertainty across spatio-temporal scales. We apply the method to SST data retrieved from the Advanced Along Track Scanning Radiometer (AATSR) and validate the results for two different SST retrieval algorithms, both at a per pixel level and for gridded data. We find good agreement between our estimated uncertainties and validation data. This approach to calculating uncertainties in SST retrievals has a wider application to data from other instruments and retrieval of other geophysical variables.

Quantile regression without the curse of unsmoothness

We consider quantile regression models and investigate the induced smoothing method for obtaining the covariance matrix of the regression parameter estimates. We show that the difference between the smoothed and unsmoothed estimating functions in quantile regression is negligible. The detailed and simple computational algorithms for calculating the asymptotic covariance are provided. Intensive simulation studies indicate that the proposed method performs very well. We also illustrate the algorithm by analyzing the rainfall–runoff data from Murray Upland, Australia.

Pseudo-marginal algorithms with multiple CPUs

The emergence of pseudo-marginal algorithms has led to improved computational efficiency for dealing with complex Bayesian models with latent variables. Here an unbiased estimator of the likelihood replaces the true likelihood in order to produce a Bayesian algorithm that remains on the marginal space of the model parameter (with latent variables integrated out), with a target distribution that is still the correct posterior distribution. Very efficient proposal distributions can be developed on the marginal space relative to the joint space of model parameter and latent variables. Thus psuedo-marginal algorithms tend to have substantially better mixing properties. However, for pseudo-marginal approaches to perform well, the likelihood has to be estimated rather precisely. This can be difficult to achieve in complex applications. In this paper we propose to take advantage of multiple central processing units (CPUs), that are readily available on most standard desktop computers. Here the likelihood is estimated independently on the multiple CPUs, with the ultimate estimate of the likelihood being the average of the estimates obtained from the multiple CPUs. The estimate remains unbiased, but the variability is reduced. We compare and contrast two different technologies that allow the implementation of this idea, both of which require a negligible amount of extra programming effort. The superior performance of this idea over the standard approach is demonstrated on simulated data from a stochastic volatility model.

Approximate Bayesian computation using auxiliary model based estimates

We present a novel approach for developing summary statistics for use in approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) algorithms using indirect infer- ence. We embed this approach within a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm that is completely adaptive. This methodological development was motivated by an application involving data on macroparasite population evolution modelled with a trivariate Markov process. The main objective of the analysis is to compare inferences on the Markov process when considering two di®erent indirect mod- els. The two indirect models are based on a Beta-Binomial model and a three component mixture of Binomials, with the former providing a better ¯t to the observed data.

A Study of feature extraction algorithms for optical flow tracking

Sparse optical flow algorithms, such as the Lucas-Kanade approach, provide more robustness to noise than dense optical flow algorithms and are the preferred approach in many scenarios. Sparse optical flow algorithms estimate the displacement for a selected number of pixels in the image. These pixels can be chosen randomly. However, pixels in regions with more variance between the neighbours will produce more reliable displacement estimates. The selected pixel locations should therefore be chosen wisely. In this study, the suitability of Harris corners, Shi-Tomasi's “Good features to track", SIFT and SURF interest point extractors, Canny edges, and random pixel selection for the purpose of frame-by-frame tracking using a pyramidical Lucas-Kanade algorithm is investigated. The evaluation considers the important factors of processing time, feature count, and feature trackability in indoor and outdoor scenarios using ground vehicles and unmanned aerial vehicles, and for the purpose of visual odometry estimation.

Improved Algorithms for Reservoir Capacity Calculation Incorporating Storage-Dependent Losses and Reliability Norm

Two algorithms that improve upon the sequent-peak procedure for reservoir capacity calculation are presented. The first incorporates storage-dependent losses (like evaporation losses) exactly as the standard linear programming formulation does. The second extends the first so as to enable designing with less than maximum reliability even when allowable shortfall in any failure year is also specified. Together, the algorithms provide a more accurate, flexible and yet fast method of calculating the storage capacity requirement in preliminary screening and optimization models.

A new data source for fisheries resource assessment: genetic estimates of the effective number of spawners. Final Report to the Fisheries Research and Development Corporation.

The development of innovative methods of stock assessment is a priority for State and Commonwealth fisheries agencies. It is driven by the need to facilitate sustainable exploitation of naturally occurring fisheries resources for the current and future economic, social and environmental well being of Australia. This project was initiated in this context and took advantage of considerable recent achievements in genomics that are shaping our comprehension of the DNA of humans and animals. The basic idea behind this project was that genetic estimates of effective population size, which can be made from empirical measurements of genetic drift, were equivalent to estimates of the successful number of spawners that is an important parameter in process of fisheries stock assessment. The broad objectives of this study were to 1. Critically evaluate a variety of mathematical methods of calculating effective spawner numbers (Ne) by a. conducting comprehensive computer simulations, and by b. analysis of empirical data collected from the Moreton Bay population of tiger prawns (P. esculentus). 2. Lay the groundwork for the application of the technology in the northern prawn fishery (NPF). 3. Produce software for the calculation of Ne, and to make it widely available. The project pulled together a range of mathematical models for estimating current effective population size from diverse sources. Some of them had been recently implemented with the latest statistical methods (eg. Bayesian framework Berthier, Beaumont et al. 2002), while others had lower profiles (eg. Pudovkin, Zaykin et al. 1996; Rousset and Raymond 1995). Computer code and later software with a user-friendly interface (NeEstimator) was produced to implement the methods. This was used as a basis for simulation experiments to evaluate the performance of the methods with an individual-based model of a prawn population. Following the guidelines suggested by computer simulations, the tiger prawn population in Moreton Bay (south-east Queensland) was sampled for genetic analysis with eight microsatellite loci in three successive spring spawning seasons in 2001, 2002 and 2003. As predicted by the simulations, the estimates had non-infinite upper confidence limits, which is a major achievement for the application of the method to a naturally-occurring, short generation, highly fecund invertebrate species. The genetic estimate of the number of successful spawners was around 1000 individuals in two consecutive years. This contrasts with about 500,000 prawns participating in spawning. It is not possible to distinguish successful from non-successful spawners so we suggest a high level of protection for the entire spawning population. We interpret the difference in numbers between successful and non-successful spawners as a large variation in the number of offspring per family that survive – a large number of families have no surviving offspring, while a few have a large number. We explored various ways in which Ne can be useful in fisheries management. It can be a surrogate for spawning population size, assuming the ratio between Ne and spawning population size has been previously calculated for that species. Alternatively, it can be a surrogate for recruitment, again assuming that the ratio between Ne and recruitment has been previously determined. The number of species that can be analysed in this way, however, is likely to be small because of species-specific life history requirements that need to be satisfied for accuracy. The most universal approach would be to integrate Ne with spawning stock-recruitment models, so that these models are more accurate when applied to fisheries populations. A pathway to achieve this was established in this project, which we predict will significantly improve fisheries sustainability in the future. Regardless of the success of integrating Ne into spawning stock-recruitment models, Ne could be used as a fisheries monitoring tool. Declines in spawning stock size or increases in natural or harvest mortality would be reflected by a decline in Ne. This would be good for data-poor fisheries and provides fishery independent information, however, we suggest a species-by-species approach. Some species may be too numerous or experiencing too much migration for the method to work. During the project two important theoretical studies of the simultaneous estimation of effective population size and migration were published (Vitalis and Couvet 2001b; Wang and Whitlock 2003). These methods, combined with collection of preliminary genetic data from the tiger prawn population in southern Gulf of Carpentaria population and a computer simulation study that evaluated the effect of differing reproductive strategies on genetic estimates, suggest that this technology could make an important contribution to the stock assessment process in the northern prawn fishery (NPF). Advances in the genomics world are rapid and already a cheaper, more reliable substitute for microsatellite loci in this technology is available. Digital data from single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are likely to super cede ‘analogue’ microsatellite data, making it cheaper and easier to apply the method to species with large population sizes.

Simplified algorithms based on Haar transforms for signal recognition in protective relays

This letter presents the development of simplified algorithms based on Haar functions for signal extraction in relaying signals. These algorithms, being computationally simple, are better suited for microprocessor-based power system protection relaying. They provide accurate estimates of the signal amplitude and phase.

Flaws in the current method for calculating methane emissions during dairy manure management in New Zealand

New Zealand's Greenhouse Gas Inventory (the NZ Inventory) currently estimates methane (CH4) emissions from anaerobic dairy effluent ponds by: (1) determining the total pond volume across New Zealand; (2) dividing this volume by depth to obtain the total pond surface area; and (3) multiplying this area by an observational average CH4 flux. Unfortunately, a mathematically erroneous determination of pond volume has led to an imbalanced equation and a geometry error was made when scaling-up the observational CH4 flux. Furthermore, even if these errors are corrected, the nationwide estimate still hinges on field data from a study that used a debatable method to measure pond CH4 emissions at a single site, as well as a potentially inaccurate estimation of the amount of organic waste anaerobically treated. The development of a new methodology is therefore critically needed.

Algorithms for 13C metabolic flux analysis

The metabolism of an organism consists of a network of biochemical reactions that transform small molecules, or metabolites, into others in order to produce energy and building blocks for essential macromolecules. The goal of metabolic flux analysis is to uncover the rates, or the fluxes, of those biochemical reactions. In a steady state, the sum of the fluxes that produce an internal metabolite is equal to the sum of the fluxes that consume the same molecule. Thus the steady state imposes linear balance constraints to the fluxes. In general, the balance constraints imposed by the steady state are not sufficient to uncover all the fluxes of a metabolic network. The fluxes through cycles and alternative pathways between the same source and target metabolites remain unknown. More information about the fluxes can be obtained from isotopic labelling experiments, where a cell population is fed with labelled nutrients, such as glucose that contains 13C atoms. Labels are then transferred by biochemical reactions to other metabolites. The relative abundances of different labelling patterns in internal metabolites depend on the fluxes of pathways producing them. Thus, the relative abundances of different labelling patterns contain information about the fluxes that cannot be uncovered from the balance constraints derived from the steady state. The field of research that estimates the fluxes utilizing the measured constraints to the relative abundances of different labelling patterns induced by 13C labelled nutrients is called 13C metabolic flux analysis. There exist two approaches of 13C metabolic flux analysis. In the optimization approach, a non-linear optimization task, where candidate fluxes are iteratively generated until they fit to the measured abundances of different labelling patterns, is constructed. In the direct approach, linear balance constraints given by the steady state are augmented with linear constraints derived from the abundances of different labelling patterns of metabolites. Thus, mathematically involved non-linear optimization methods that can get stuck to the local optima can be avoided. On the other hand, the direct approach may require more measurement data than the optimization approach to obtain the same flux information. Furthermore, the optimization framework can easily be applied regardless of the labelling measurement technology and with all network topologies. In this thesis we present a formal computational framework for direct 13C metabolic flux analysis. The aim of our study is to construct as many linear constraints to the fluxes from the 13C labelling measurements using only computational methods that avoid non-linear techniques and are independent from the type of measurement data, the labelling of external nutrients and the topology of the metabolic network. The presented framework is the first representative of the direct approach for 13C metabolic flux analysis that is free from restricting assumptions made about these parameters.In our framework, measurement data is first propagated from the measured metabolites to other metabolites. The propagation is facilitated by the flow analysis of metabolite fragments in the network. Then new linear constraints to the fluxes are derived from the propagated data by applying the techniques of linear algebra.Based on the results of the fragment flow analysis, we also present an experiment planning method that selects sets of metabolites whose relative abundances of different labelling patterns are most useful for 13C metabolic flux analysis. Furthermore, we give computational tools to process raw 13C labelling data produced by tandem mass spectrometry to a form suitable for 13C metabolic flux analysis.

Sampling frequency affects estimates of annual nitrous oxide fluxes

Quantifying nitrous oxide (N(2)O) fluxes, a potent greenhouse gas, from soils is necessary to improve our knowledge of terrestrial N(2)O losses. Developing universal sampling frequencies for calculating annual N(2)O fluxes is difficult, as fluxes are renowned for their high temporal variability. We demonstrate daily sampling was largely required to achieve annual N(2)O fluxes within 10% of the best estimate for 28 annual datasets collected from three continents, Australia, Europe and Asia. Decreasing the regularity of measurements either under- or overestimated annual N(2)O fluxes, with a maximum overestimation of 935%. Measurement frequency was lowered using a sampling strategy based on environmental factors known to affect temporal variability, but still required sampling more than once a week. Consequently, uncertainty in current global terrestrial N(2)O budgets associated with the upscaling of field-based datasets can be decreased significantly using adequate sampling frequencies.