Appropriate complexity for the prediction of coastal and estuarine geomorphic behaviour at decadal to centennial scales

Coastal and estuarine landforms provide a physical template that not only accommodates diverse ecosystem functions and human activities, but also mediates flood and erosion risks that are expected to increase with climate change. In this paper, we explore some of the issues associated with the conceptualisation and modelling of coastal morphological change at time and space scales relevant to managers and policy makers. Firstly, we revisit the question of how to define the most appropriate scales at which to seek quantitative predictions of landform change within an age defined by human interference with natural sediment systems and by the prospect of significant changes in climate and ocean forcing. Secondly, we consider the theoretical bases and conceptual frameworks for determining which processes are most important at a given scale of interest and the related problem of how to translate this understanding into models that are computationally feasible, retain a sound physical basis and demonstrate useful predictive skill. In particular, we explore the limitations of a primary scale approach and the extent to which these can be resolved with reference to the concept of the coastal tract and application of systems theory. Thirdly, we consider the importance of different styles of landform change and the need to resolve not only incremental evolution of morphology but also changes in the qualitative dynamics of a system and/or its gross morphological configuration. The extreme complexity and spatially distributed nature of landform systems means that quantitative prediction of future changes must necessarily be approached through mechanistic modelling of some form or another. Geomorphology has increasingly embraced so-called ‘reduced complexity’ models as a means of moving from an essentially reductionist focus on the mechanics of sediment transport towards a more synthesist view of landform evolution. However, there is little consensus on exactly what constitutes a reduced complexity model and the term itself is both misleading and, arguably, unhelpful. Accordingly, we synthesise a set of requirements for what might be termed ‘appropriate complexity modelling’ of quantitative coastal morphological change at scales commensurate with contemporary management and policy-making requirements: 1) The system being studied must be bounded with reference to the time and space scales at which behaviours of interest emerge and/or scientific or management problems arise; 2) model complexity and comprehensiveness must be appropriate to the problem at hand; 3) modellers should seek a priori insights into what kind of behaviours are likely to be evident at the scale of interest and the extent to which the behavioural validity of a model may be constrained by its underlying assumptions and its comprehensiveness; 4) informed by qualitative insights into likely dynamic behaviour, models should then be formulated with a view to resolving critical state changes; and 5) meso-scale modelling of coastal morphological change should reflect critically on the role of modelling and its relation to the observable world.

Avaliação do sistema de informações geográficas GRASS para predição dos riscos de erosão em estradas de uso florestal

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Energia na Agricultura) - FCA

Geoprocessamento aplicado na caracterização morfométrica da microbacia do Ribeirão Descalvado - Botucatu (SP)

The objective of this study was to evaluate geoprocessing to morphometrically characterize the Ribeirão Descalvado micro watershed – Botucatu, SP by the Geographic Information System (GIS) – Selva for preservation, rationalization of its use and environmental restoration. The micro watershed is 2,228.61 ha between the geographic coordinates: 22° 50' 05" to 22° 54' 26" latitude S and 48° 22' 29" to 48° 26' 36" longitude W Gr. The cartographic basis was the planialtimetric chart of Botucatu (SP), 1: 50000 scale (IBGE, 1969), used for extraction of level, hydrography and topography curves to determine morphometric indices. The results showed that low values of drainage density associated with the presence of permeable rocks facilitates ground water infiltration which decreases surface runoff, erosion risks and environmental degradation. The low value of the shape factor supported by the circularity index shows that the micro watershed is more elongated and at lower risk of more pronounced floods. The roughness coefficient environmental parameter classified the micro watershed for forest and reforestation.

Planejamento do meio físico a partir de uma abordagem da técnica de capacidade de uso da terra na sub-bacia dso Rio das Pedras - Itatinga - SP

The study aimed mapping of the land use capacity classes for the Rio das Pedras watershed, Itatinga-SP in order to provide another mechanism of environmental planning for the studied area. It was used 1:10,000 topographic letters for the slope map generation which was overlaid with the studied area soil map. It was applied the judgment table criteria method, for generation of land use capacity map of the studied area. It were identified the following results: First, class III with constraints in relation of low fertility and restrictions about erosion risks on high slope areas. Second, class VI with the same characteristics of class III however with the presence of an aggravating factor of sand texture in all horizons, resulting in high risks of erosion events, especially in high slopes areas, and contamination by pollutants due the high soil permeability. Conclusions: It was verified that the more critical regions for land use capacity classes were VIs and mainly VIes class. The last one has more high relief areas and the presence of Neossolo Quartzarenico soil, with a big erosion propensity. The land use capacity map allow making different decisions for each region of the watershed respecting their individual characteristics.

Comparação da eficácia de tecnologias para o controlo da perda de solo em áreas ardidas no Nordeste de Portugal aplicando modelo de erosão

As florestas exercem grande influência nos meios físico, biótico e socioeconômico, evitando a degradação do solo pela erosão, controlando a qualidade da água, fornecendo matérias-primas e alimentos, abrigando a maior parte da fauna e flora terrestre. As áreas florestais estão todavia sujeitas a significativo risco de incêndio. Como consequência dos incêndios, e entre outros impactos, o solo fica exposto à ação erosiva da chuva determinando perdas de solo muito significativas e a degradação deste recurso. Deste modo, o controle da erosão após o incêndio é essencial para a mais rápida recuperação das áreas ardidas suportada em medidas de conservação do solo eficazes. O trabalho propõe-se fazer uma avaliação quantificada da eficácia de técnicas de conservação do solo no controle da erosão em áreas ardidas, centrada em medidas de baixo custo e aplicável ao NE de Portugal, em especial o Distrito de Bragança. A metodologia de avaliação seguida inclui a construção de cenários regionais de aplicação simulada de uma seleção de medidas, mediante exploração de um modelo de erosão (Equação Universal de Perda de Solo – USLE). Através das simulações realizadas fazendo variar a distribuição de barreiras ao longo da encosta e o seu grau de retenção, foi possível avaliar a eficácia desta técnica para a redução da erosão nas condições definidas como cenários de base. Observou-se que o grau de retenção tem maior influência na redução de perda do solo do que a distância entre barreiras. Isto evidencia a necessidade de uma implementação adequada desta medida, com a instalação de barreiras de elevado grau de retenção. Aplicada apenas no primeiro ano pós-fogo, e de forma isolada, a técnica da sementeira não se mostrou suficientemente eficaz. Porém, se após um ano se realizar uma nova sementeira na área afetada, mostrou-se que pode ocorrer uma diminuição dos valores de perda de solo relativamente grande, pelo que será aconselhável a realização de uma ressementeira no ano seguinte à primeira aquando de intervenções pós-fogo com esta técnica. Uma possível combinação entre os métodos anteriores iria proporcionar uma situação ótima, como observado nos resultados das simulações efetuadas, onde a maioria dos cenários apresentou valores estimados de perda de solo menores ou iguais a 2 ton/ha.ano, limiar que separa condições de risco de erosão baixo e moderado e corresponde à tolerância de perda de solo para solos delgados e de substrato não renovável.

Landscape-scale soil erosion modelling and ecological restoration for a mountainous watershed in Sichuan, China

Sichuanissa Tiibetin ylängön metsäkato on pysähtynyt mutta eroosio-ongelmat jatkuvat Viikin tropiikki-instituutin tutkija Ping ZHOU kartoitti trooppisen metsänhoidon alaan kuuluvassa väitöskirjatyössään maaperän eroosioalttiutta ja sen riippuvuutta metsäkasvillisuudesta Jangtsen tärkeää sivuhaaraa Min-jokea ympäröivällä n. 7400 neliökilometrin suuruisella valuma-alueella Sichuanin Aba-piirikunnassa. Aineistonaan hän käytti muun muassa satelliittikartoitustietoja ja mittaustuloksia yli 600 maastokoealalta. Tutkimuksen nimi suomeksi on "Maaperän eroosion mallinnus ja vuoristoisen valuma-alueen ekologinen ennallistaminen Sichuanissa Kiinassa". Aikaisempien tutkimusten perusteella oli tiedossa että metsien häviäminen tällä alueella pysähtyi jo 1980-luvun alussa. Sen jälkeen on metsien pinta-ala hitaasti kasvanut etupäässä sen vuoksi, että teollinen puunhakkuu luonnonmetsissä kiellettiin kokonaan v. 1998 ja 25 astetta jyrkemmillä rinteillä myös maatalouden harjoittaminen on saatu lopetetuksi viljelijöille tarjottujen taloudellisten houkuttimien avulla. Täten myös pelto- ja laidunmaata on voitu ennallistaa metsäksi. Ping Zhou pystyi jakamaan 5700 metrin korkeuteen saakka kohoavan vuoristoalueen eroosioalttiudeltaan erilaisiin vyöhykkeisiin rinteen kaltevuuden, sademäärän, kasvipeitteen ja maalajin perusteella. Noin 15 prosentilla tutkitun valuma-alueen pinta-alasta, lähinnä Min-joen pääuomaa ympäröivillä jyrkillä rinteillä, eroosioriski oli suuri tai erittäin suuri. Eri tyyppisellä kasvillisuudella oli hyvin erilainen vaikutus eroosioalttiuteen, ja myös alueen sijainti vuoriston eri korkeuksilla vaikutti eroosioon. Säästyneet lähes luonnontilaiset havumetsät, joita on etupäässä vuoriston ylimmissä osissa 2600-4000 metrin korkeudella, edistävät tehokkaasti metsän luontaista uudistumista ja levittäytymistä vaurioituneille alueille. Säilyneiden metsien puulajikoostumus antoi tutkimuksessa mahdollisuuden ennustaa metsien tulevaa kehitystä koko tutkitulla valuma-alueella sen eri korkeusvyöhykkeissä ja eri maaperätyypeillä. Ennallistamisen kannalta ongelmallisimpia olivat alueet joilta metsäpeite oli lähinnä puiden teollisen hakkuun vuoksi kokonaan hävinnyt ja joilla maaperä yleisesti oli eroosion pahoin kuluttama. Näillä alueilla ei ole tehty juuri mitään uudistamis- tai ennallistamistoimenpiteitä. Niillä metsien ennallistaminen vaatii myös puiden tai pensaiden istuttamista. Tähän sopivia ovat erityisesti ilmakehän typpeä sitovat lajit, joista alueella kasvaa luontaisena mm. sama tyrnilaji joka esiintyy myös Suomessa. Työssä tutkittiin yli kahdeksankymmenen paikallisen luontaisen puulajin (joista peräti noin kolmannes on havupuulajeja) ekologisia ominaisuuksia ja soveltuvuutta metsien ennallistamiseen. Avainasemassa työn onnistumisen kannalta ovat nyt paikalliset asukkaat, joiden maankäytön muutokset ovat jo selvästi edistänet luonnonmetsän ennalleen palautumista. Suomen Akatemia rahoitti vuosina 2004-2006 VITRI:n tutkimushanketta, josta Ping Zhou'n väitöskirjatyö muodosti keskeisen osan. Kenttätyö Sichuanissa avasi mahdollisuuden hedelmälliseen monitieteiseen yhteistyöhön ja tutkijavaihtoon Kiinan tiedeakatemian alaisen Chengdun biologiainstituutin (CIB) kanssa; tämä tieteellinen kanssakäyminen jatkuu edelleen.

Dental erosion and salivary flow rate in cerebral palsy individuals with gastroesophageal reflux

A high prevalence of gastroesophageal reflux (GERD) has been observed in individuals with cerebral palsy (CP). One of the main risks for dental erosion is GERD. This study aimed to evaluate the presence of GERD, variables related to dental erosion and associated with GERD (diet consumption, gastrointestinal symptoms, bruxism), and salivary flow rate, in a group of 46 non-institutionalized CP individuals aged from 3 to 13 years.