Load-Unload Response Ratio and Accelerating Moment/Energy Release Critical Region Scaling and Earthquake Prediction

The main idea of the Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) is that when a system is stable, its response to loading corresponds to its response to unloading, whereas when the system is approaching an unstable state, the response to loading and unloading becomes quite different. High LURR values and observations of Accelerating Moment/Energy Release (AMR/AER) prior to large earthquakes have led different research groups to suggest intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible and imply that the LURR and AMR/AER observations may have a similar physical origin. To study this possibility, we conducted a retrospective examination of several Australian and Chinese earthquakes with magnitudes ranging from 5.0 to 7.9, including Australia's deadly Newcastle earthquake and the devastating Tangshan earthquake. Both LURR values and best-fit power-law time-to-failure functions were computed using data within a range of distances from the epicenter. Like the best-fit power-law fits in AMR/AER, the LURR value was optimal using data within a certain epicentral distance implying a critical region for LURR. Furthermore, LURR critical region size scales with mainshock magnitude and is similar to the AMR/AER critical region size. These results suggest a common physical origin for both the AMR/AER and LURR observations. Further research may provide clues that yield an understanding of this mechanism and help lead to a solid foundation for intermediate-term earthquake prediction.

地震P-S波时差耦合作用的斜坡崩滑效应研究

China locates between the circum-Pacific and the Mediterranean-Himalayan seismic belt. The seismic activities in our country are very frequent and so are the collapses and slides of slope triggered by earthquakes. Many collapses and slides of slope take place mainly in the west of China with many earthquakes and mountains, especially in Sichuan and Yunnan Provinces. When a strong earthquake happening, the damage especially in mountains area caused by geological hazards it triggered such as rock collapses, landslides and debris flows is heavier than that it caused directly. A conclusion which the number of lives lost caused by geological hazards triggered by a strong earthquake in mountains area often accounts for a half even more of the total one induced by the strong earthquake can be made by consulting the statistical loss of several representative earthquakes. As a result, geological hazards such as collapses and slides of slope triggered by strong earthquakes attract wide attention for their great costs. Based on field geological investigation, engineering geological exploration and material data analysis, chief conclusions have been drawn after systematic research on formation mechanism, key inducing factors, dynamic characteristics of geological hazards such as collapses and slides of slope triggered by strong earthquakes by means of engineering geomechanics comprehensive analysis, finite difference numerical simulation test, in-lab dynamic triaxial shear test of rock, discrete element numerical simulation. Based on research on a great number of collapses and landslides triggered by Wenchuan and Xiaonanhai Earthquake, two-set methods, i.e. the method for original topography recovering based on factors such as lithology and elevation comparing and the method for reconstructing collapsing and sliding process of slope based on characteristics of seism tectonic zone, structural fissure, diameter spatial distribution of slope debris mass, propagation direction and mechanical property of seismic wave, have been gotten. What is more, types, formation mechanism and dynamic characteristics of collapses and slides of slope induced by strong earthquakes are discussed comprehensively. Firstly, collapsed and slided accumulative mass is in a state of heavily even more broken. Secondly, dynamic process of slope collapsing and sliding consists of almost four stages, i.e. broken, thrown, crushed and river blocked. Thirdly, classified according to failure forms, there are usually four types which are made up of collapsing, land sliding, land sliding-debris flowing and vibrating liquefaction. Finally, as for key inducing factors in slope collapsing and sliding, they often include characteristics of seism tectonic belts, structure and construction of rock mass, terrain and physiognomy, weathering degree of rock mass and mechanical functions of seismic waves. Based on microscopic study on initial fracturing of slope caused by seismic effect, combined with two change trends which include ratio of vertical vs. horizontal peak ground acceleration corresponding to epicentral distance and enlarging effect of peak ground acceleration along slope, key inducing factor of initial slope fracturing in various area with different epicentral distance is obtained. In near-field area, i.e. epicentral distance being less than 30 km, tensile strength of rock mass is a key intrinsic factor inducing initial fracturing of slope undergoing seismic effect whereas shear strength of rock mass is the one when epicentral distance is more than 30 km. In the latter circumstance, research by means of finite difference numerical simulation test and in-lab dynamic triaxial shear test of rock shows that initial fracture begins always in the place of slope shoulder. The fact that fracture strain and shear strength which are proportional to buried depth of rock mass in the place of slope shoulder are less than other place and peak ground acceleration is enlarged in the place causes prior failure at slope shoulder. Key extrinsic factors inducing dynamic fracture of slope at different distances to epicenter have been obtained through discrete element numerical simulation on the total process of collapsing and sliding of slope triggered by Wenchuan Earthquake. Research shows that combined action of P and S seismic waves is the key factor inducing collapsing and sliding of slope at a distance less than 64 km to initial epicenter along earthquake-triggering structure. What is more, vertical tensile action of P seismic wave plays a leading role near epicenter, whereas vertical shear action of S seismic wave plays a leading role gradually with epicentral distance increasing in this range. On the other hand, single action of P seismic wave becomes the key factor inducing collapsing and sliding of slope at a distance between 64 km and 216 km to initial epicenter. Horizontal tensile action of P seismic wave becomes the key factor gradually from combined action between vertical and horizontal tensile action of P seismic wave with epicentral distance increasing in this distance range. In addition, initial failure triggered by strong earthquakes begins almost in the place of slope shoulder. However, initial failure beginning from toe of slope relates probably with gradient and rock occurrence. Finally, starting time of initial failure in slope increases usually with epicentral distance. It is perhaps that the starting time increasing is a result of attenuating of seismic wave from epicenter along earthquake-triggering structure. It is of great theoretical and practical significance for us to construct towns and infrastructure in fragile geological environment along seism tectonic belts and conduct risk management on earthquake-triggered geological hazards by referring to above conclusions.

接收函数方法与中国及邻区上地幔间断面的研究

The receiver function method applied in researching the discontinuities in upper mantle was systematically studied in this paper. Using the theoretical receiver functions, the characteristics of P410S and P660S phases were analyzed, and the influencing factors for detection of these phases were discussed. The stability of receiver function was studied, and a new computational method of receiver function, RFSSMS (Receiver Function of Stack and Smooth of Multi seismic-records at a Single station), was put forward. We built initial reference velocity model for the media beneath each of 18 seismic stations respectively; then estimated the buried depths of 410-km and 660-km discontinuities(simply marked as '410' and '660') under the stations by using the arrive time differences of P410S and P660S with P. We developed a new receiver function inversion method -PGARFI (Peeling-Genetic Algorithm of Receiver Function Inversion), to obtain the whole crust and upper mantle velocity structure and the depths of discontinuities beneath a station. The major works and results could be summarized as follows: (1) By analysis of the theoretical receiver functions with different velocity models and different ray parameters, we obtain the knowledge: The amplitudes of P410S and P660S phases are decreasing with the increasing of epicentral distance A , and the arrival time differences of these phases with P are shorter as A is longer. The multiple refracted and/or reflected waves yielded on Moho and the discontinuities in the crust interfere the identification of P410S. If existing LVZ under the lithosphere, some multiple waves caused by LVZ will interfere the identification of P410S. The multiple waves produced by discontinuity lied near 120km depth will mix with P410s phase in some range of epicentral distance; and the multiple waves concerned with the discontinuity lied near 210km depth will interfere the identification of P660S. The epicentral distance for P4i0s identification is limited, the upper limit is 80° . The identification of P660S is not restricted by the epicenter distance obviously. The identification of P410S and P6gos in the theoretical receiver functions is interfered weakly from the seismic wave attenuation caused by the media absorption if the Q value in a reasonable range. (2) The stability of receiver function was studied by using synthetic seismograms with different kind of noise. The results show that on the condition of high signal-noise-ratio of seismic records, the high frequency background noise and the low frequency microseism noise do not influence the calculating result of receiver function. But the media "scattering noise" influence the stability of receiver function. When the scattering effect reach some level, the identification of P4iOs and P66os is difficult in single receiver function which is yielded from only one seismic record. We provided a new method to calculate receiver function, that is, with a group of earthquake records, stacking the R and Z components respectively in the frequency domain, and weighted smooth the stacked Z component, then compute the complex spectrum ratio of R to Z. This method can improve the stability of receiver function and protrude the P4i0s and P66os in the receiver function curves. (3) 263 receiver functions were provided from 1364 three component broadband seismograms recorded at 18 stations in China and adjacent areas for the tele-earthquakes. The observed arrival time differences of P410S and P660S with P were obtained in these receiver functions. The initial velocity model for every station was built according to the prior research results. The buried depths of '410' and '660' under a station were acquired by the way of adjusting the depths of these two discontinuities in the initial velocity model until the theoretical arrival time differences of P410S and P660S with P well conformed to the observed. The results show an obvious lateral heterogeneity of buried depths of ' 410' and (660' . The depth of '410' is shallower beneath BJI, XAN, LZH and ENH, but deeper under QIZ and CHTO, and the average is 403km . The average depth of '660' is 663km, deeper under MDJ and MAJO, but shallower under QIZ and HYB. (4) For inversing the whole crust and upper mantle velocity structure, a new inversion method -PGARFI (Peeling-Genetic Algorithm of Receiver Function Inversion) has- been developed here. The media beneath a station is divided into segments, then the velocity structure is inversed from receiver function from surface to deep successively. Using PGARFI, the multi reflection / refraction phases of shallower discontinuities are isolated from the first order refraction transform phase of deep discontinuity. The genetic algorithm with floating-point coding was used hi the inversion of every segment, and arithmetical crossover and non-uniform mutation technologies were employed in the genetic optimization. 10 independent inversions are completed for every segment, and 50 most excellent velocity models are selected according to the priority of fitness from all models produced in the inversion process. The final velocity structure of every segment is obtained from the weighted average of these 50 models. Before inversion, a wide range of velocity variation with depth and depth range of the main discontinuities are given according to priori knowledge. PGARFI was verified with numerical test and applied in the inversion of the velocity structure beneath HIA station down to 700km depth.

A 2000 year long seasonal record of floods in Lake Ledro

Knowledge of past natural flood variability and controlling climate factors is of high value since it can be useful to refine projections of the future flood behavior under climate warming. In this context, we present a seasonally resolved 2000 year long flood frequency and intensity reconstruction from the southern Alpine slope (North Italy) using annually laminated (varved) lake sediments. Floods occurred predominantly during summer and autumn, whereas winter and spring events were rare. The all-season flood frequency and, particularly, the occurrence of summer events increased during solar minima, suggesting solar-induced circulation changes resembling negative conditions of the North Atlantic Oscillation as controlling atmospheric mechanism. Furthermore, the most extreme autumn events occurred during a period of warm Mediterranean sea surface temperature. Interpreting these results in regard to present climate change, our data set proposes for a warming scenario, a decrease in summer floods, but an increase in the intensity of autumn floods at the South-Alpine slope.

Mapa preliminar de períodos predominantes del suelo en Puerto Príncipe (Haití) a partir de medidas de ruido ambiental.

The 2010 Haiti earthquake, occurred on January 12th at 16:53:09 local time (21:53:09 UTC) with epicentral distance of 15 km from the capital Port au Prince, MW 7.0 and 13 km hypocenter deep, was the strongest event in the area since happened in 1770. The maximum macroseismic intensity was estimated as X (MMI scale). The aim of this research is to obtain a preliminary zonation of Port-au-Prince in terms of predominant resonance periods of ground. A total of 36 short-period ambient noise records have been carried out on a grid of about 500x500m. H/V spectral ratio method (HVSR) has been applied to determine the predominant period at each point. The lowest values (<0.2s) predominate in the southern part of the city, composed by Miocene conglomerates, while highest values (> 0.45s) correspond to the center and western parts, composed of Pleistocene-Holocene alluvial deposits and anthropogenic land reclaimed from the sea. We have determined the ground VS30 structure inside National Palace garden, using simultaneous ambient noise measurements. An array made up of 6 sensors were used, with 5 of them uniformly distributed along a circumference and a sixth one placed in its centre. The records were analyzed by using the spatial autocorrelation method (SPAC). The VS 30 value obtained was 331m/sec, in good agreement with the average values obtained for this area by other authors, using prospecting techniques.

Performance of masonry buildings during the 2011 Lorca earthquake

On Wednesday 11th May 2011 at 6:47 pm (local time) a magnitude 5.1 Mw earthquake occurred 6 km northeast of Lorca with a depth of around 2 km. As a consequence of the shallow depth and the small epicentral distance, important damage was produced in several masonry constructions and even led to the collapse of some of them. Pieces of the facades of several buildings fell down onto the sidewalk, being one of the reasons for the killing of a total of 9 people. The objective of this paper is to describe and analyze the failure patterns observed in unreinforced masonry buildings ranging from 3 to 8 floors in height. First, a brief description of the local building practices of masonry buildings is given. Then, the most important failure types of masonry buildings are described and discussed. After that, a more detailed analysis of one particular building is presented.

Performance of buildings with masonry infill walls during the 2011 Lorca earthquake

On Wednesday 11th May 2011 at 6:47 pm (local time) a magnitude 5.1 Mw earthquake occurred 6 km northeast of Lorca with a depth of around 5 km. As a consequence of the shallow depth and the small epicentral distance, important damage was produced in several masonry constructions and even led to the collapse of one of them. Pieces of the facades of several buildings fell down onto the sidewalk, being one of the reasons for the killing of a total of 9 people. The objective of this paper is to describe and analyze the failure patterns observed in reinforced concrete frame buildings with masonry infill walls ranging from 3 to 8 floors in height. Structural as well as non-structural masonry walls suffered important damage that led to redistributions of forces causing in some cases the failure of columns. The importance of the interaction between the structural frames and the infill panels is analyzed by means of non-linear Finite Element Models. The resulting load levels are compared with the member capacities and the changes of the mechanical properties during the seismic event are described and discussed. In the light of the results obtained the observed failure patterns are explained. Some comments are stated concerning the adequacy of the numerical models that are usually used during the design phase for the seismic analysis.

Seismically-induced landslides by a low-magnitude earthquake: The Mw 4.7 Ossa De Montiel event (central Spain)

The Ossa de Montiel (2015/02/23, Mw 4.7) earthquake struck the central part of Spain and was felt far from the epicenter (> 300 km). Even though ground shaking was slight (Imax = V, EMS-98 scale), the earthquake triggered many small rock falls, most at distances of 20–30 km from the epicenter, greater than previously recorded in S Spain (16 km) for earthquakes of similar magnitudes. The comparative analysis of available data for this event with records from other quakes of the Betic cordillera (S and SE Spain) seems to indicate a slower pattern of ground-motion attenuation in central Spain. This could explain why slope instabilities occurred at larger distances. Instability was more frequent, and occurred at larger distances, in road cuts than in natural slopes, implying that such slope types are highly susceptible to seismically induced landslides.

Comparison of high-speed videokeratoscopy and ultrasound distance sensing for measuring the longitudinal corneal apex movements

Two different methods to measure binocular longitudinal corneal apex movements were synchronously applied. High-speed videokeratoscopy at a sampling frequency of 15 Hz and a customdesigned ultrasound distance sensor at 100 Hz were used for the left and the right eye, respectively. Four healthy subjects participated in the study. Simultaneously, cardiac electric cycle (ECG) was registered for each subject at 100 Hz. Each measurement took 20 s. Subjects were asked to suppress blinking during the measurements. A rigid headrest and a bite-bar were used to minimize undesirable head movements. Time, frequency and time-frequency representations of the acquired signals were obtained to establish their temporal and spectral contents. Coherence analysis was used to estimate the correlation between the measured signals. The results showed close correlation between both corneal apex movements and the cardiopulmonary system. Unraveling these relationships could lead to better understanding of interactions between ocular biomechanics and vision. The advantages and disadvantages of the two methods in the context of measuring longitudinal movements of the corneal apex are outlined.

Closing the cultural distance gap: managing value-based knowledge in MNC by using MEP

Today more than ever, generating and managing knowledge is an essential source of competitive advantage for every organization, and particularly for Multinational corporations (MNC). However, despite the undisputed agreement about the importance of creating and managing knowledge, there are still a large number of corporations that act unethically or illegally. Clearly, there is a lack of attention in gaining more knowledge about the management of ethical knowledge in organizations. This paper refers to value-based knowledge, as the process of recognise and manage those values that stand at the heart of decision-making and action in organizations. In order to support MNCs in implementing value-based knowledge process, the managerial ethical profile (MEP) has been presented as a valuable tool to facilitate knowledge management process at both the intra-organizational network level and at the inter-organizational network level.

ePortfolios and preservice teachers : governing at a distance through non-human actors

This chapter seeks to develop an analysis of the contemporary use of the ePortfolio (Electronic Portfolio) in education practices. Unlike other explorations of this new technology which are deterministic in their approach, the authors seek to reveal the techniques and practices of government which underpin the implementation of the e-portfolio. By interrogating a specific case study example from a large Australian university’s preservice teacher program, the authors find that the e-portfolio is represented as eLearning technology but serves to govern students via autonomization and self responsibilization. Using policy data and other key documents, they are able to reveal the e-portfolio as a delegated authority in the governance of preservice teachers. However, despite this ongoing trend, they suggest that like other practices of government, the e-portfolio will eventually fail. This however the authors conclude opens up space for critical thought and engagement which is not afforded presently.

Distance Education and the Integration of E-learning in a Graduate Program

Historically, distance education consisted of a combination of face-to-face blocks of time and surface mailed packages. However, advances in information technology literacy and the abundance of personal computers has placed e-learning in increased demand. The authors describe the planning, implementation, and evaluation of the blending of e-learning with face-to-face education in the postgraduate nursing forum. Experiences of this particular student group are also discussed.