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Years lived with disability (YLDs) for 1160 sequelae of 289 diseases and injuries 1990–2010 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Background Non-fatal health outcomes from diseases and injuries are a crucial consideration in the promotion and monitoring of individual and population health. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) studies done in 1990 and 2000 have been the only studies to quantify non-fatal health outcomes across an exhaustive set of disorders at the global and regional level. Neither effort quantified uncertainty in prevalence or years lived with disability (YLDs). Methods Of the 291 diseases and injuries in the GBD cause list, 289 cause disability. For 1160 sequelae of the 289 diseases and injuries, we undertook a systematic analysis of prevalence, incidence, remission, duration, and excess mortality. Sources included published studies, case notification, population-based cancer registries, other disease registries, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, hospital discharge data, ambulatory care data, household surveys, other surveys, and cohort studies. For most sequelae, we used a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR, designed to address key limitations in descriptive epidemiological data, including missing data, inconsistency, and large methodological variation between data sources. For some disorders, we used natural history models, geospatial models, back-calculation models (models calculating incidence from population mortality rates and case fatality), or registration completeness models (models adjusting for incomplete registration with health-system access and other covariates). Disability weights for 220 unique health states were used to capture the severity of health loss. YLDs by cause at age, sex, country, and year levels were adjusted for comorbidity with simulation methods. We included uncertainty estimates at all stages of the analysis. Findings Global prevalence for all ages combined in 2010 across the 1160 sequelae ranged from fewer than one case per 1 million people to 350 000 cases per 1 million people. Prevalence and severity of health loss were weakly correlated (correlation coefficient −0·37). In 2010, there were 777 million YLDs from all causes, up from 583 million in 1990. The main contributors to global YLDs were mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes or endocrine diseases. The leading specific causes of YLDs were much the same in 2010 as they were in 1990: low back pain, major depressive disorder, iron-deficiency anaemia, neck pain, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, anxiety disorders, migraine, diabetes, and falls. Age-specific prevalence of YLDs increased with age in all regions and has decreased slightly from 1990 to 2010. Regional patterns of the leading causes of YLDs were more similar compared with years of life lost due to premature mortality. Neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, and anaemia were important causes of YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Rates of YLDs per 100 000 people have remained largely constant over time but rise steadily with age. Population growth and ageing have increased YLD numbers and crude rates over the past two decades. Prevalences of the most common causes of YLDs, such as mental and behavioural disorders and musculoskeletal disorders, have not decreased. Health systems will need to address the needs of the rising numbers of individuals with a range of disorders that largely cause disability but not mortality. Quantification of the burden of non-fatal health outcomes will be crucial to understand how well health systems are responding to these challenges. Effective and affordable strategies to deal with this rising burden are an urgent priority for health systems in most parts of the world. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND Quantification of the disease burden caused by different risks informs prevention by providing an account of health loss different to that provided by a disease-by-disease analysis. No complete revision of global disease burden caused by risk factors has been done since a comparative risk assessment in 2000, and no previous analysis has assessed changes in burden attributable to risk factors over time. METHODS We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010. We estimated exposure distributions for each year, region, sex, and age group, and relative risks per unit of exposure by systematically reviewing and synthesising published and unpublished data. We used these estimates, together with estimates of cause-specific deaths and DALYs from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, to calculate the burden attributable to each risk factor exposure compared with the theoretical-minimum-risk exposure. We incorporated uncertainty in disease burden, relative risks, and exposures into our estimates of attributable burden. FINDINGS In 2010, the three leading risk factors for global disease burden were high blood pressure (7·0% [95% uncertainty interval 6·2-7·7] of global DALYs), tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·3% [5·5-7·0]), and alcohol use (5·5% [5·0-5·9]). In 1990, the leading risks were childhood underweight (7·9% [6·8-9·4]), household air pollution from solid fuels (HAP; 7·0% [5·6-8·3]), and tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·1% [5·4-6·8]). Dietary risk factors and physical inactivity collectively accounted for 10·0% (95% UI 9·2-10·8) of global DALYs in 2010, with the most prominent dietary risks being diets low in fruits and those high in sodium. Several risks that primarily affect childhood communicable diseases, including unimproved water and sanitation and childhood micronutrient deficiencies, fell in rank between 1990 and 2010, with unimproved water and sanitation accounting for 0·9% (0·4-1·6) of global DALYs in 2010. However, in most of sub-Saharan Africa childhood underweight, HAP, and non-exclusive and discontinued breastfeeding were the leading risks in 2010, while HAP was the leading risk in south Asia. The leading risk factor in Eastern Europe, most of Latin America, and southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2010 was alcohol use; in most of Asia, North Africa and Middle East, and central Europe it was high blood pressure. Despite declines, tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke remained the leading risk in high-income north America and western Europe. High body-mass index has increased globally and it is the leading risk in Australasia and southern Latin America, and also ranks high in other high-income regions, North Africa and Middle East, and Oceania. INTERPRETATION Worldwide, the contribution of different risk factors to disease burden has changed substantially, with a shift away from risks for communicable diseases in children towards those for non-communicable diseases in adults. These changes are related to the ageing population, decreased mortality among children younger than 5 years, changes in cause-of-death composition, and changes in risk factor exposures. New evidence has led to changes in the magnitude of key risks including unimproved water and sanitation, vitamin A and zinc deficiencies, and ambient particulate matter pollution. The extent to which the epidemiological shift has occurred and what the leading risks currently are varies greatly across regions. In much of sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risks are still those associated with poverty and those that affect children.

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990–2013: Quantifying the epidemiological transition

Background The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age–sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development. Methods We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time. Findings Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6·2 years (95% UI 5·6–6·6), from 65·3 years (65·0–65·6) in 1990 to 71·5 years (71·0–71·9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5·4 years (4·9–5·8), from 56·9 years (54·5–59·1) to 62·3 years (59·7–64·8), total DALYs fell by 3·6% (0·3–7·4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26·7% (24·6–29·1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non–communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries. Interpretation Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition—in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden—is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk–outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990–2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8–58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1–43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5–89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

Geologia, geoquímica e petrologia magnética do magmatismo básico da área de Nova Canadá (PA), Província Carajás

O mapeamento geológico realizado na área de Nova Canadá, porção sul do Domínio Carajás, Província Carajás, possibilitou a individualização de duas unidades de caráter máfico e intrusivas nos granitoides do Complexo Xingu e, mais restritamente, na sequência greenstone belt do Grupo Sapucaia. São representadas por diques de diabásio isotrópicos e por extensos corpos de anfibolito, com os últimos descrevendo texturas nematoblástica e granoblástica, de ocorrência restrita à porção SW da área. Ambos apresentam assinatura de basaltos subalcalinos de afinidade toleítica, sendo que os diques de diabásio são constituídos por três variedades petrográficas: hornblenda gabronorito, gabronorito e norito, sendo essas diferenças restritas apenas quanto à proporção modal de anfibólio, orto- e clinopiroxênio, já que texturalmente, as mesmas não apresentam diferenças significativas. São formados por plagioclásio, piroxênio (orto- e clinopiroxênio), anfibólio, minerais óxidos de Fe-Ti e olivina, apresentam um padrão ETR moderadamente fracionado, discreta anomalia negativa de Eu, ambiente geotectônico correspondente a intraplaca continental, e assinaturas dos tipos OIB e E-MORB. Já os anfibolitos são constituídos por plagioclásio, anfibólio, minerais opacos, titanita e biotita, mostram um padrão ETR horizontalizado, com anomalia de Eu ausente, sendo classificados como toleítos de arco de ilha e com assinatura semelhante aos N-MORB. Os dados de química mineral obtidos nessas unidades mostram que, nos diques de diabásio, o plagioclásio não apresenta variações composicionais significativas entre núcleo e borda, sendo classificados como labradorita, com raras andesina e bytownita; o anfibólio mostra uma gradação composicional de Fe-hornblenda para actinolita, com o aumento de sílica. Nos anfibolitos, o plagioclásio mostra uma grande variação composicional, de oligoclásio à bytownita nas rochas foliadas, sendo que nas menos deformadas, sua classificação é restrita à andesina sódica. O piroxênio, presente apenas nos diabásios, exibe considerável variação em sua composição, revelando um aumento no teor de magnésio nos núcleos, e de ferro e cálcio, nas bordas, permitindo classificá-los em augita, pigeonita (clinopiroxênio) e enstatita (ortopiroxênio). Os diabásios apresentam titanomagnetita, magnetita e ilmenita como os principais óxidos de Fe-Ti, permitindo reconhecer cinco formas distintas de ilmenita nessas rochas: ilmenita treliça, ilmenita sanduíche, ilmenita composta interna/externa, ilmenita em manchas e ilmenita individual. Feições texturais e composicionais sugerem que a titanomagnetita e os cristais de ilmenita composta externa e individual foram originados durante o estágio precoce de cristalização. Durante o estágio subsolidus, a titanomagnetita foi afetada pelo processo de oxi-exsolução, dando origem a intercrescimentos de magnetita pobre em titânio com ilmenita (ilmenitas treliça, em mancha, sanduíche e composta interna). Os anfibolitos possuem a ilmenita como único mineral óxido de Fe e Ti ocorrendo, portanto, sob a forma de ilmenita individual, onde encontra-se sempre associada ao anfibólio e à titanita. Os valores mais elevados de suscetibilidade magnética (SM) estão relacionados aos gabronoritos e noritos, os quais exibem maiores conteúdos modais de minerais opacos e apresentam titanomagnetita magmática em sua paragênese. A variedade hornblenda gabronorito define as amostras com valores intermediários de SM. Os menores valores de SM são atribuídos aos anfibolitos, que são desprovidos de magnetita. A correlação negativa entre valores de SM com os conteúdos modais de minerais ferromagnesianos indica que os minerais paramagnéticos (anfibólio e piroxênio) não possuem influência significativa no comportamento magnético dos diabásios, enquanto nos anfibolitos a tendência de correlação positiva entre estas variáveis pode sugerir que estas fases são as principais responsáveis pelos seus valores de SM. Dados geotermobarométricos obtidos a partir do par titanomagnetita-ilmenita nos diabásios indicam que estes se formaram em condições de temperatura (1112°C) e Fo₂ (-8,85) próximas daquelas do tampão NNO.

Anti-Alpha-2-Macroglobulin-Like-1 Autoantibodies Are Detected Frequently and May Be Pathogenic in Paraneoplastic Pemphigus

Paraneoplastic pemphigus (PNP) shows autoantibodies mainly to plakin and desmosomal cadherin family proteins. We have recently identified alpha-2-macroglobulin-like-1 (A2ML1), a broad range protease inhibitor, as a unique PNP antigen. In this study, we tested a large number of PNP sera by various methods. Forty (69.0%) of 58 PNP sera recognized A2ML1 recombinant protein expressed in COS7 cells by immunofluorescence (IF) and/or immunoprecipitation (IP)/immunoblotting (IB). IP/IB showed higher sensitivity than IF. In addition, 22 (37.9%) PNP sera reacted with A2ML1 by IB of cultured normal human keratinocytes (NHKs) under non-reducing conditions. Statistical analyses using various clinical and immunological data showed that the presence of anti-A2ML1 autoantibodies was associated with early disease onset and absence of ocular lesions. Next, to investigate the pathogenic role of anti-A2ML1 antibody, we performed additional functional studies. Addition of anti-A2ML1 polyclonal antibody to culture media decreased NHK cell adhesion examined by dissociation assay, and increased plasmin activity detected by casein zymography, suggesting that anti-A2ML1 antibody may decrease NHK cell adhesion through plasmin activation by inhibition of A2ML1. This study demonstrates that autoantibodies to A2ML1 are frequently and specifically detected and may have a pathogenic role in PNP.

A complete genome screen for genes predisposing to severe bipolar disorder in two Costa Rican pedigrees

Bipolar mood disorder (BP) is a debilitating syndrome characterized by episodes of mania and depression. We designed a multistage study to detect all major loci predisposing to severe BP (termed BP-I) in two pedigrees drawn from the Central Valley of Costa Rica, where the population is largely descended from a few founders in the 16th–18th centuries. We considered only individuals with BP-I as affected and screened the genome for linkage with 473 microsatellite markers. We used a model for linkage analysis that incorporated a high phenocopy rate and a conservative estimate of penetrance. Our goal in this study was not to establish definitive linkage but rather to detect all regions possibly harboring major genes for BP-I in these pedigrees. To facilitate this aim, we evaluated the degree to which markers that were informative in our data set provided coverage of each genome region; we estimate that at least 94% of the genome has been covered, at a predesignated threshold determined through prior linkage simulation analyses. We report here the results of our genome screen for BP-I loci and indicate several regions that merit further study, including segments in 18q, 18p, and 11p, in which suggestive lod scores were observed for two or more contiguous markers. Isolated lod scores that exceeded our thresholds in one or both families also occurred on chromosomes 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 13, 15, 16, and 17. Interesting regions highlighted in this genome screen will be followed up using linkage disequilibrium (LD) methods.

Muzyka i muzyczność prozy japońskiej okresu Heian (794-1192)

Wydział Neofilologii: Katedra Orientalistyki