Evaluation of empirical methods to estimate reference evapotranspiration in Uberaba, State of Minas Gerais, Brazil

Evapotranspiration is the process of water loss of vegetated soil due to evaporation and transpiration, and it may be estimated by various empirical methods. This study had the objective to carry out the evaluation of the performance of the following methods: Blaney-Criddle, Jensen-Haise, Linacre, Solar Radiation, Hargreaves-Samani, Makkink, Thornthwaite, Camargo, Priestley-Taylor and Original Penman in the estimation of the potential evapotranspiration when compared to the Penman-Monteith standard method (FAO56) to the climatic conditions of Uberaba, state of Minas Gerais, Brazil. A set of 21 years monthly data (1990 to 2010) was used, working with the climatic elements: temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and insolation. The empirical methods to estimate reference evapotranspiration were compared with the standard method using linear regression, simple statistical analysis, Willmott agreement index (d) and performance index (c). The methods Makkink and Camargo showed the best performance, with "c" values ​​of 0.75 and 0.66, respectively. The Hargreaves-Samani method presented a better linear relation with the standard method, with a correlation coefficient (r) of 0.88.

Empirical Methods for Development and Expanding of the Bulgarian WordNet

Some basic points from the automated creation of a Bulgarian WordNet – an analogue of the Princeton WordNet, are treated. The used computer tools, the received results and their estimation are discussed. A side effect from the proposed approach is the receiving of patterns for the Bulgarian syntactic analyzer.

An empirical framework for studying desistance as a process

Recent reviews of the desistance literature have advocated studying desistance as a process, yet current empirical methods continue to measure desistance as a discrete state. In this paper, we propose a framework for empirical research that recognizes desistance as a developmental process. This approach focuses on changes in the offending rare rather than on offending itself We describe a statistical model to implement this approach and provide an empirical example. We conclude with several suggestions for future research endeavors that arise from our conceptualization of desistance.

Alterations in The States and Contents of Consciousness: Empirical and Theoretical Aspects

The main purpose of the present doctoral thesis is to investigate subjective experiences and cognitive processes in four different types of altered states of consciousness: naturally occurring dreaming, cognitively induced hypnosis, pharmacologically induced sedation, and pathological psychosis. Both empirical and theoretical research is carried out, resulting in four empirical and four theoretical studies. The thesis begins with a review of the main concepts used in consciousness research, the most influential philosophical and neurobiological theories of subjective experience, the classification of altered states of consciousness, and the main empirical methods used to study consciousness alterations. Next, findings of the original studies are discussed, as follows. Phenomenal consciousness is found to be dissociable from responsiveness, as subjective experiences do occur in unresponsive states, including anaesthetic-induced sedation and natural sleep, as demonstrated by post-awakening subjective reports. Two new tools for the content analysis of subjective experiences and dreams are presented, focusing on the diversity, complexity and dynamics of phenomenal consciousness. In addition, a new experimental paradigm of serial awakenings from non-rapid eye movement sleep is introduced, which enables more rapid sampling of dream reports than has been available in previous studies. It is also suggested that lucid dreaming can be studied using transcranial brain stimulation techniques and systematic analysis of pre-lucid dreaming. For blind judges, dreams of psychotic patients appear to be indistinguishable from waking mentation reports collected from the same patients, which indicates a close resemblance of these states of mind. However, despite phenomenological similarities, dreaming should not be treated as a uniform research model of psychotic or intact consciousness. Contrary to this, there seems to be a multiplicity of routes of how different states of consciousness can be associated. For instance, seemingly identical time perception distortions in different alterations of consciousness may have diverse underlying causes for these distortions. It is also shown that altered states do not necessarily exhibit impaired cognitive processing compared to a baseline waking state of consciousness: a case study of time perception in a hypnotic virtuoso indicates a more consistent perceptual timing under hypnosis than in a waking state. The thesis ends with a brief discussion of the most promising new perspectives for the study of alterations of consciousness.

Perfomance of methods for estimating reference evapotranspiration in the municipalities of Frederico Westphalen and Palmeira das Missoes, State of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

The estimation of reference evapotranspiration (ETo), used in water balance, allows to determine soil water content, assisting on irrigation management. The present study aimed to compare simple ETo estimating methods with the Penman-Monteith (FAO), in the folowing time scales: daily, 5, 10, 15 and 30 days and monthly in the counties of Frederico Westphalen and Palmeira das Missoes, in the Rio Grande do Sul state, Brazil. The methods tested had their efficiency improved by increasing the time scale of analysis, keeping the same performance for both locations. The highest and lowest ETo values occurred in December and June, respectively. Most methods underestimated ETo. For any of the time scales Makking and Radiaton FAO24 methods can replace the Penman-Monteith for estimating ETo.

Car, parce que, puisque’ revisited: Three empirical studies on French causal connectives

In French, a causal relation is often conveyed by the connectives car, parce que or puisque. Since the seminal work of the Lambda-l Group (1975), it has generally been assumed that parce que, used to relate semantic content, contrasts with car and puisque, both used to connect either speech act or epistemic content. However, this analysis leaves a number of questions unanswered. In this paper, I present a reanalysis of this trio, using empirical methods such as corpus analysis and constrained elicitation. Results indicate that car and parce que are interchangeable in many contexts, even if they are still prototypically used in their respective domain in writing. As for puisque, its distribution does not overlap with car, despite their similar domains of use. I argue that the specificity of puisque with respect to the other two connectives is to introduce a cause with an echoic meaning.

Testing a new Free Core Nutation empirical model

The Free Core Nutation (FCN) is a free mode of the Earth's rotation caused by the different material characteristics of the Earth's core and mantle. This causes the rotational axes of those layers to slightly diverge from each other, resulting in a wobble of the Earth's rotation axis comparable to nutations. In this paper we focus on estimating empirical FCN models using the observed nutations derived from the VLBI sessions between 1993 and 2013. Assuming a fixed value for the oscillation period, the time-variable amplitudes and phases are estimated by means of multiple sliding window analyses. The effects of using different a priori Earth Rotation Parameters (ERP) in the derivation of models are also addressed. The optimal choice of the fundamental parameters of the model, namely the window width and step-size of its shift, is searched by performing a thorough experimental analysis using real data. The former analyses lead to the derivation of a model with a temporal resolution higher than the one used in the models currently available, with a sliding window reduced to 400 days and a day-by-day shift. It is shown that this new model increases the accuracy of the modeling of the observed Earth's rotation. Besides, empirical models determined from USNO Finals as a priori ERP present a slightly lower Weighted Root Mean Square (WRMS) of residuals than IERS 08 C04 along the whole period of VLBI observations, according to our computations. The model is also validated through comparisons with other recognized models. The level of agreement among them is satisfactory. Let us remark that our estimates give rise to the lowest residuals and seem to reproduce the FCN signal in more detail.

The use of maturity models in improving project management performance:an empirical investigation

Purpose – The purpose of the paper was to conduct an empirical investigation to explore the impact of project management maturity models (PMMMs) on improving project performance. Design/methodology/approach – The investigation used a cross-case analysis involving over 90 individuals in seven organisations. Findings – The findings of the empirical investigation indicate that PMMMs demonstrate very high levels of variability in individual's assessment of project management maturity. Furthermore, at higher levels of maturity, the type of performance improvement adopted following their application is related to the type of PMMM used in the assessment. The paradox of the unreliability of PMMMs and their widespread acceptance is resolved by calling upon the “wisdom of crowds” phenomenon which has implications for the use of maturity model assessments in other arena. Research limitations/implications – The investigation does have the usual issues associated with case research, but the steps that have been taken in the cross-case construction and analysis have improved the overall robustness and extendibility of the findings. Practical implications – The tendency for PMMMs to shape improvements based on their own inherent structure needs further understanding. Originality/value – The use of empirical methods to investigate the link between project maturity models and extant changes in project management performance is highly novel and the findings that result from this have added resonance.

Az árfolyamsávok empirikus modelljei és a devizaárfolyam sávon belüli előrejelezhetetlensége = Empirical models of exchange rate target zones

A sávosan rögzített devizaárfolyamok elméleti és gyakorlati vizsgálatai a nemzetközi közgazdaságtan egyik legnépszerűbb témaköre volt a kilencvenes évek elején. A gyakorlati módszerek közül az alkalmazások és hivatkozások száma tekintetében az úgynevezett eltolódással igazítás módszere emelkedett ki. A módszert alkalmazó szerzők szerint amíg a lebegő árfolyamú devizák előrejelzése céltalan feladatnak tűnik, addig sávos árfolyam esetén az árfolyam sávon belüli helyzetének előrejelzése sikeresen végezhető. E tanulmány bemutatja, hogy az Európai Monetáris Rendszer és az északeurópai államok sávos árfolyamrendszereinél e módszer alkalmazásával adódott eredmények például a lebegő árfolyamú amerikai dollárra és az egységgyökfolyamatok többségére is érvényesek. A tanulmány feltárja e látszólagos ellentmondás okait, és bemutat egy olyan, a sávos árfolyamrendszerek főbb megfigyelt jellemzőire épülő modellt, amelynek keretei között a sávon belüli árfolyam előrejelzése nem feltétlenül lehetséges, mert a leértékelés előtti időszakban a sávon belüli árfolyam alakulása kaotikus lehet. / === / Following the development of the first exchange rate target zone model at the end of the eighties dozens of papers analyzed theoretical and empirical topics of currency bands. This paper reviews different empirical methods to analyze the credibility of the band and lays special emphasis on the most widely used method, the so-called drift-adjustment method. Papers applying that method claim that while forecasting a freely floating currency is hopeless, predicting an exchange rate within the future band is successful. This paper shows that the results achieved by applications to EMS and Nordic currencies are not specific to data of target zone currencies. For example, application to US dollar and even to most unit root processes leads qualitatively to the same. This paper explores the solutions of this puzzle and shows a model of target zones in which the exchange rate within the band is not necessarily predictable since the process might follow chaotic dynamics before devaluation.

Fundações de construções submetidas a esforços de tração em solo de alta porosidade da região de Campinas - SP

This paper presents the behavior of three bored piles conducted in diabasic soil submitted to uplift forces. The piles were built at the site for Experimental Studies in Soil Mechanics and Foundations of UNICAMP, located in the city of Campinas, Brazil. Field tests have already been conducted at the site (SPT, CPT, DMT and PMT), as well as laboratory tests by using sample soils taken from a well up to 17 m deep. The water table is not checked until a depth of 17 m. In order to check the behavior of the piles when submitted to uplift forces, slow static load tests were carried out as the recommendations of NBR 12131. The carrying capacity of these piles was also provided by means of theoretical methods, appropriate for uplift forces, and through semi-empirical methods appropriate for compression forces, considering only the portion of lateral resistance. The values estimated by using the considered methods were compared to those obtained by means of load tests. One of the tested piles was extracted from the soil to be the subject of a study on its geometry.

Small area population disease burden

Small area health statistics has assumed increasing importance as the focus of population and public health moves to a more individualised approach of smaller area populations. Small populations and low event occurrence produce difficulties in interpretation and require appropriate statistical methods, including for age adjustment. There are also statistical questions related to multiple comparisons. Privacy and confidentiality issues include the possibility of revealing information on individuals or health care providers by fine cross-tabulations. Interpretation of small area population differences in health status requires consideration of migrant and Indigenous composition, socio-economic status and rural-urban geography before assessment of the effects of physical environmental exposure and services and interventions. Burden of disease studies produce a single measure for morbidity and mortality - disability adjusted life year (DALY) - which is the sum of the years of life lost (YLL) from premature mortality and the years lived with disability (YLD) for particular diseases (or all conditions). Calculation of YLD requires estimates of disease incidence (and complications) and duration, and weighting by severity. These procedures often mean problematic assumptions, as does future discounting and age weighting of both YLL and YLD. Evaluation of the Victorian small area population disease burden study presents important cross-disciplinary challenges as it relies heavily on synthetic approaches of demography and economics rather than on the empirical methods of epidemiology. Both empirical and synthetic methods are used to compute small area mortality and morbidity, disease burden, and then attribution to risk factors. Readers need to examine the methodology and assumptions carefully before accepting the results.

Linking policies for biodiversity conservation with advances in behavioural economics

Global biodiversity loss and its consequences for human welfare and sustainable development have become major concerns. Economists have, therefore, given increasing attention to the policy issues involved in the management of genetic resources. To do so, they often apply empirical methods developed in behavioral and experimental economics to estimate economic values placed on genetic resources. This trend away from almost exclusive dependence on axiomatic methods is welcomed. However, major valuation methods used in behavioral economics raise new scientific challenges. Possibly the most important of these include deficiencies in the knowledge of the public (and researchers) about genetic resources, implications for the formation of values of supplying information to focal individuals, and limits to rationality. These issues are explored for stated-preference techniques of valuation (e.g., contingent valuation) as well as revealed preference techniques, especially the travel cost method. They are illustrated by Australian and Asian examples. Taking into account behavioral and psychological models and empirical evidence, particular attention is given to how elicitation of preferences, and supply of information to individuals, influences their preferences about biodiversity. Policy consequences are outlined.

Métodos de estimativa de descarga sólida em rios : análise comparativa

Transporte de sedimentos em bacias hidrográficas está relacionado com geomorfologia, ecologia fluvial, estabilidade das estruturas de engenharia e condições de navegação, dentre outros aspectos importantes para o planejamento e o controle de recursos hídricos. Existência de inúmeras variáveis envolvidas na mecânica de transporte de sedimentos e complexidade nas interações de processos físicos tornam difícil o estabelecimento de metodologias indiretas para estimativa de transporte de sedimentos em rios. Desta forma, não existe ainda metodologia universalmente aceita. O principal objetivo do presente trabalho é a análise comparativa de diferentes métodos empíricos disponíveis na literatura para estimativa de descargas sólidas em rios, considerando suas características específicas e resultados de aplicações às bacias dos rios Santa Joana e Santa Maria do Doce e microbacias Sossego e Santa Júlia, inseridas na porção da bacia do rio Doce localizada no Espírito Santo. Foram aplicados os métodos de estimativa indireta de descarga sólida: Einstein Modificado por Colby e Hembree (1955); Colby Simplificado (1957); Engelund & Hansen (1967); Ackers & White (1973); Yang (1973), Karim (1998) e Cheng (2002). Considerando as médias das estimativas de descarga sólida de material de leito (Qsml) relativas às campanhas realizadas em período chuvoso para a seção transversal do rio Doce, de maior porte, o método de Karim (1998), seguido pelo método de Ackers & White (1973), apresentou o maior valor, enquanto que o método de Yang (1973) apresentou o menor. Para os rios Santa Maria do Doce e Santa Joana e os córregos Santa Júlia e Sossego, verificou-se que o método de Ackers & White (1973), seguido de Karim (1998) e Yang (1973) apresentaram as maiores médias, enquanto que os métodos de Cheng (2002) e Engelund & Hansen (1967) apresentaram as menores. O método Simplificado de Colby apresentou as maiores estimativas de descargas sólidas totais (Qst) para todas as seções transversais de todos os cursos d'água monitorados. Concluiu-se que os diferentes métodos indiretos podem resultar em grandes diferenças em estimativas de transporte de sedimento em rios e que, desta forma, resultados de aplicação destes métodos devem ser considerados com muita cautela. Os resultados mostraram a grande importância de realização de campanhas de medição sedimentométricas para avaliação do transporte de sedimentos e definição dos melhores métodos indiretos de estimativa para cursos d'água específicos.