'Beheading', Rule Manipulation and Fraud: The Approval of Election Results in Brazil, 1894-1930

Studies of electoral fraud tend to focus their analyses only on the pre-electoral or electoral phases. By examining the Brazilian First Republic (1889-1930), this article shifts the focus to a later phase, discussing a particular type of electoral fraud that has been little explored by the literature, namely, that perpetrated by the legislatures themselves during the process of giving final approval to election results. The Brazilian case is interesting because of a practice known as degola ('beheading') whereby electoral results were altered when Congress decided on which deputies to certify as duly elected. This has come to be seen as a widespread and standard practice in this period. However, this article shows that this final phase of rubber-stamping or overturning election results was important not because of the number of degolas, which was actually much lower than the literature would have us believe, but chiefly because of their strategic use during moments of political uncertainty. It argues that the congressional certification of electoral results was deployed as a key tool in ensuring the political stability of the Republican regime in the absence of an electoral court.

Regional Variations in Political Ideology in Canada

Il est reconnu que les résultats électoraux au Canada varient grandement selon la région. Afin de trouver des explications à ce phénomène, il convient d’étudier comment les grandes régions du Canada se distinguent les unes des autres sur le plan politique. La présente recherche amorce cette étude sous l’angle de l’idéologie. Elle tente de déterminer en quoi l’idéologie politique diffère d’une région à l’autre du pays. Elle s’appuie sur les données des études électorales canadiennes de 2008. On a recours à des questions évaluant les préférences des répondants par rapport à plusieurs enjeux politiques pour répondre à la question de recherche. On conduit en premier lieu une analyse factorielle, qui identifie six facteurs qui ont structuré l’opinion publique lors de l’élection de 2008. Ensuite, des tests T sont conduits pour vérifier si les moyennes de ces facteurs idéologiques sont statistiquement différentes d’une région à l’autre. Les résultats montrent que les différences régionales sont souvent significatives et suivent les hypothèses. Toutefois, les résultats touchant à la privatisation de la santé ainsi qu’au Manitoba et à la Saskatchewan vont à l’encontre des attentes.

16 años de la circunscripción nacional para Senado en Colombia: ¿dónde está el espacio de representación nacional?

Uno de los grandes cambios establecidos en la Constitución de 1991, y el principal dentro del sistema electoral, fue el establecimiento de la circunscripción nacional para la elección del Senado de la República. Como toda norma, tenía unos objetivos claros a la hora de su implementación que eran, sin duda alguna, visibles en las extensas discusiones dentro del proceso constituyente. Este artículo pretende evaluar uno de esos objetivos, específicamente el orientado a la búsqueda manifiesta de hombres y mujeres que forjasen proyectos políticos para todo el colectivo colombiano y que, al hacerlo, buscasen su elección en todo el territorio nacional y se autoconcibieran como líderes de toda la nación, superando el vínculo tradicionalmente regional que la historia ha visto pasar por el Senado en sus extensos 60 años de existencia. Para ello hemos sistematizado, descrito y analizado los resultados de los cinco eventos electorales que se han llevado a cabo para la elección del Senado desde 1991, con la ayuda de una revisión bibliográfica pertinente que permite comprender dichos resultados y ubicarlos en una esfera lógica de comportamiento de los candidatos escogidos en la circunscripción nacional. En este caso la explicación se inscribe dentro de la teoría de elección racional.-----One of the great changes established in the Constitution of 1991, and the main one within the electoral system, was the establishment of National Electoral District for the election of the Senate of the Republic. As with all laws, there were clear objectives at the time of its implementation that are, without doubt, visible in the extensive discussions within the constitutional process. This article intends, therefore, to evaluate one of these objectives, specifically the one focused on the public search for men and women who would forge political projects for Colombia as a whole and by doing so, would seek to be elected across the national territory and to design themselves as leaders of the whole country, thus overcoming the traditional regional links that history has seen pass through the Senate in its extensive 60 yeas of existence. In this light, the electoral results of the five electoral events that have taken place for the election of the Senate since 1991, have been automated, described, and analyzed, with the help of the relevant bibliographic review that allows to understand said results and place them within the logical sphere of the behavior of candidates chosen in the national district; in this case, the explanation is in line with the rational election theory.

Natural disasters and clientelism: the case of floods and landslides in Colombia

What are the effects of natural disasters on electoral results? Some authors claim that catastrophes have a negative effect on the survival of leaders in a democracy because voters have a propensity to punish politicians for not preventing or poorly handling a crisis. In contrast, this paper finds that these events might be beneficial for leaders. Disasters are linked to leader survival through clientelism: they generate an in-flow of resources in the form of aid, which increase money for buying votes. Analyzing the rainy season of 2010-2011 in Colombia, considered its worst disaster in history, I use a difference-in-differences strategy to show that in the local election incumbent parties benefited from the disaster. The result is robust to different specifications and alternative explanations. Moreover, places receiving more aid and those with judicial evidence of vote-buying irregularities, are more likely to reelect the incumbent, supporting the mechanism proposed by this paper.

Análise organizacional do partido da social democracia brasileira no estado de São Paulo (1988-2006): a estrutura relacional e o capital político

Pós-graduação em Ciências Sociais - FCLAR

The First Universal Suffrage Election, at County (Gewog) Level, in Bhutan

Following a Royal Edict to adopt universal suffrage in election for local government institutions, maiden elections were held in 199 gewogs (counties) in Bhutan in 2002 to elect their chief executives. This paper gives an account of this first time event in a country where most villagers had never seen secret ballots and poll booths. It synthesizes detailed data, mostly qualitative, collected soon after the election was over, and assesses aspects of electoral participation that His Majesty the King of Bhutan has introduced steadily to deepen democracy. Beginning with a glance at the territorial organization of the Bhutanese state within which the counties are embedded, the paper compares the electoral results with the relevant election rules.

Génération souverainiste? L'engagement des jeunes au sein du mouvement souverainiste québécois : le cas du Parti québécois

Depuis la défaite du Oui au référendum de 1995, nous observons une perte de vitesse du mouvement souverainiste québécois. Cette dernière est d’abord perceptible d’un point de vue électoral où nous observons une baisse constante des appuis aux partis souverainistes, et ensuite relativement au fractionnement social et idéologique du mouvement souverainiste. Dans un tel contexte, nous nous attardons, dans le cadre de ce mémoire, à l’engagement des jeunes âgé-e-s de 20 à 26 ans au sein du Parti québécois (PQ). Ces personnes ont commencé à s’impliquer dans ce parti alors que le mouvement souverainiste était déjà caractérisé par une perte de vitesse et n’ont jamais connu les moments effervescents de celui-ci. Suite à seize entrevues semi-directives réalisées avec des militant-e-s du PQ, ce mémoire a pour but de comprendre les processus d’engagement de ces personnes. À l’aide d’une analyse sociologique des parcours d’engagement, nous démontrons d’abord que plusieurs types de parcours ont pu mener ces jeunes à s’engager au PQ. Ensuite, nous soulignons le fait que des éléments du passé, notamment par l’entremise des cours d’histoire et de la socialisation familiale, ont eu une plus grande importance que ceux d’actualité pour leur prise de conscience souverainiste. Nous montrons aussi que ces jeunes appartiennent à une génération politique pour laquelle les grands évènements de l’histoire du mouvement souverainiste ne peuvent plus être considérés comme étant des moments critiques des parcours d’engagement. Nous démontrons finalement que l’analyse des orientations politiques des personnes permet de mieux comprendre les différences entre les différents processus d’engagement.

Génération souverainiste? L'engagement des jeunes au sein du mouvement souverainiste québécois : le cas du Parti québécois

Depuis la défaite du Oui au référendum de 1995, nous observons une perte de vitesse du mouvement souverainiste québécois. Cette dernière est d’abord perceptible d’un point de vue électoral où nous observons une baisse constante des appuis aux partis souverainistes, et ensuite relativement au fractionnement social et idéologique du mouvement souverainiste. Dans un tel contexte, nous nous attardons, dans le cadre de ce mémoire, à l’engagement des jeunes âgé-e-s de 20 à 26 ans au sein du Parti québécois (PQ). Ces personnes ont commencé à s’impliquer dans ce parti alors que le mouvement souverainiste était déjà caractérisé par une perte de vitesse et n’ont jamais connu les moments effervescents de celui-ci. Suite à seize entrevues semi-directives réalisées avec des militant-e-s du PQ, ce mémoire a pour but de comprendre les processus d’engagement de ces personnes. À l’aide d’une analyse sociologique des parcours d’engagement, nous démontrons d’abord que plusieurs types de parcours ont pu mener ces jeunes à s’engager au PQ. Ensuite, nous soulignons le fait que des éléments du passé, notamment par l’entremise des cours d’histoire et de la socialisation familiale, ont eu une plus grande importance que ceux d’actualité pour leur prise de conscience souverainiste. Nous montrons aussi que ces jeunes appartiennent à une génération politique pour laquelle les grands évènements de l’histoire du mouvement souverainiste ne peuvent plus être considérés comme étant des moments critiques des parcours d’engagement. Nous démontrons finalement que l’analyse des orientations politiques des personnes permet de mieux comprendre les différences entre les différents processus d’engagement.

El clientelismo y los resultados electorales de la Alcaldía Mayor de Bogotá y el Concejo de Bogotá: un análisis comparado de 2007, 2011 y 2015

La presente investigación tiene como objetivo principal identificar los acuerdos de apoyo político mutuo entre los candidatos al Concejo y los candidatos a la Alcaldía que influyeron en la captación de votos durante los comicios para la Alcaldía Mayor de Bogotá y el Concejo de Bogotá durante 2007, 2011 y 2015. De esta manera, sostiene que los resultados electorales de estos comicios se relacionan de una manera imperfecta. Por ello, se examinará la relación entre los resultados electorales de la Alcaldía y el Concejo de Bogotá con el fin de hallar correlaciones, transferencias de votos y patrones de comportamiento espaciales. Finalmente, esta investigación establecerá relaciones entre los índices de participación y la presencia de redes clientelistas en las UPZ de Bogotá. Se utilizará el método de investigación cualitativo, mediante trabajo de archivo y cartografía electoral, utilizando principalmente fuentes primarias.

Transferencia del voto en las regiones : redes electorales nacionales y territoriales del Partido de la U en Córdoba y Sucre

La presente investigación pretende determinar la influencia de la transferencia de voto en los resultados de los distintos niveles de elección, nacional y territorial, del Partido de La U en Córdoba y Sucre entre 2010 y 2015. Se analiza cómo la construcción de redes y alianzas electorales entre los caciques de región y los candidatos da paso a la formación de potentes clanes políticos, capaces de movilizar al electorado más allá del partidismo o de la política personalista. Así, a través del análisis comparado de los resultados electorales, el trabajo de archivo y la cartografía electoral, se estudian las estructuras de poder propias de dos departamentos en los que la política es el resultado de competencias o acuerdos entre familias políticas, que utilizan las elecciones como herramienta para establecer dinámicas de grupos que le dan sentido al sistema político local.

Generations and turnout : The generational effect in electoral participation in Finland

The relationship between age and turnout has been curve-linear as electoral participation first increases with age, remains relatively stable throughout middle-age and then gradually declines as certain physical infirmities set in (see e.g. Milbrath 1965). Alongside this life-cycle effect in voting, recent pooled cross-sectional analyses (see e.g. Blais et al. 2004; Lyons and Alexander 2000) have shown that there is also a generational effect, referring to lasting differences in turnout between various age groups. This study firstly examines the extent to which the generational effect applies in the Finnish context. Secondly, it investigates the factors accounting for that effect. The first article, based on individual-level register data from the parliamentary elections of 1999, shows that turnout differences between the different age groups would be even larger if there were no differences in social class and education. The second article examines simultaneously the effects of age, generation and period in the Finnish parliamentary elections of 1975-2003 based on pooled data from Finnish voter barometers (N = 8,634). The results show that there is a clear life cycle, generational and period effect. The third article examines the role of political socialisation in accounting for generational differences in electoral participation. Political socialisation is defined as the learning process in which an individual adopts various values, political attitudes, and patterns of actions from his or her environment. The multivariate analysis, based on the Finnish national election study 2003 (N=1,270), indicated that if there were no differences in socialisation between the youngest and the older generations, the difference in turnout would be much larger than if only sex and socioeconomic factors are controlled for. The fourth article examines other possible factors related to generational effect in voting. The results mainly apply to the Finnish parliamentary elections of 2003 in which we have data available. The results show that the sense of duty by far accounts for the generational effect in voting. Political interest, political knowledge and non-parliamentary participation also narrowed the differences in electoral participation between the youngest and the second youngest generations. The implication of the findings is that the lower turnout among the current youth is not a passing phenomenon that will diminish with age. Considering voting a civic duty and understanding the meaning of collective action are both associated with the process of political socialisation which therefore has an important role concerning the generational effect in turnout.

The impact of the summer 2007 forest fires in Greece: Recent environmental mobilizations, cyber-activism and electoral performance

This report circumambulates around the environmental issue, examining mobilizations in favour of public access to the seafront and protest events against the recent devastating forest fires. By framing this discussion within existing scholarly contributions on related dimensions of the environmental issue (environmental consciousness, grassroots environmental contestation) in Southern Europe in general and Greece in particular, it suggests that the environmental mobilization dynamic in Greece has been infused with a new, global, mobilizing resource that offers new avenues to evaluate the potency of Greek civil society. Finally, the article discusses the results of the 2007 national elections and ponders the chances of political ecology becoming a permanent feature of Greek parliamentary politics.

Deconstructing national leadership: Politicians’ accounts of electoral success and failure in the Irish Lisbon Treaty referenda

The Self Categorization approach to national leadership proposes that leaders rhetorically construct national identity as essentialized and inevitable in order to consensualize and mobilize the population. In contrast, discursive studies have demonstrated how national politicians flexibly construct the nation to manage their own accountability in local interactions, though this in turn has neglected broader leadership processes. The present paper brings both approaches together to examine how and when national politicians construct versions of national identity in order to account for their failure as well as success in mobilizing the electorate. Eight semi-structured conversational style interviews were conducted with a strategic sample of eight leading Irish politicians on the subject of the 2008/2009 Irish Lisbon Treaty referenda. Using a Critical Discourse Psychology approach, the hegemonic repertoire of the ‘settled will’
of the informed and consensualized Irish nation was identified across all interviews. Politicians either endorsed the ‘settled will’ repertoire as evidence of their successful leadership, or rejected the repertoire by denying the rationality or unity of the populace to account for their failure. Our results suggest national identity is only constructed as essentialized and inevitable to the extent that it serves a strategic political purpose.

Electoral Systems, Ethnic Cleavages, and Experience with Democracy

Recent studies show the effects of electoral systems and ethnic cleavages on the number of parties in emerging democracies differ from those effects observed in more established democracies. Building on recent arguments maintaining the quality of democracy improves with experience, we argue the reason for the differences in the findings between established and emerging democracies is that the effects of these variables on the number of parties differ according to a country’s experience with elections. To test this argument, we analyse party system fragmentation in 89 established and emerging democracies and the conditioning effects experience with elections have on the effects of district magnitude, ethnic cleavages, and variables relating to the presidential party system. The results show the effects of institutional and social cleavage variables differ substantially between emerging and established democracies, but these effects begin to approximate those seen in more established democracies with additional experience with elections.

Senado 2006: impacto de la reforma político-electoral

Los sistemas electorales en sentido estricto, adicional a sus efectos técnicos, tienen efectos colaterales que sólo pueden ser visiblemente detectados después de tres o cuatro elecciones, lo que hace que el tiempo razonable de observación para el análisis y evaluación de los mismos no debe ser inferior a una década. Motivo por el cual el escenario político-electoral colombiano de los últimos tiempos se constituye en un laboratorio académico sin precedentes en nuestra historia. Más aún cuando a través del Acto Legislativo 01 de 2003 el Congreso logra aprobar su reforma política, en medio de un ambiente de tensiones y contrapesos entre el Legislativo y Ejecutivo, que busca cada uno a su manera, reformar estructuralmente la Constitución Política de Colombia, particularmente, en relación con la forma de obtener, conservar y ejercer el poder. Ante esta coyuntura de implementación y adaptación de la reforma, en el ámbito netamente electoral, el Observatorio de Procesos Electorales (OPE) ha emprendido la tarea de hacer seguimiento y sistematización de la información pertinente que le permita analizar los sistemas electorales –en sus efectos técnicos–, e ir observando a largo plazo sus efectos colaterales, así como su impacto real en la representación política, en la dinámica del sistema político y en el grado de gobernabilidad. En este cuadernillo se contextualizan los antecedentes de la elección senatorial y se presentan los resultados preliminares del seguimiento y sistematización de la información relacionada con el impacto inmediato de la reforma en la elección de 2006.