Electoral institutions,cleavage structures,and the number of parties

Theory: A classic question in political science concems ",hat deteImines the number of parties that compete in a given polity. Broadly speaking, there are two approaches to answering this question, one that emphasizes the role of electorallaws in structuring coalitional incentives, another that emphasizes the importance of pre-existing social cleavages. In tbis paper, we view the number of parties as a product of the interaction between these two forces, following Powell (1982) and Ordeshook and Shvetsova (1994). Hypotheses: The effective number of parties in a polity should be a multiplicative rather than an additive function ofthe peImissiveness ofthe electoral system and the heterogeneity ofthe society. Methods: Multiple regression on cross-sectional aggregate electoral statistics. Unlike previous studies, we (1) do not confine attention to developed democracies; (2) explicitly control for the influence of presidential elections, taking account of whether they are concurrent or nonconcurrent, and ofthe effective number ofpresidential candidates; and (3) also control for the presence and operation of upper tiers in legislative elections. Results: The hypothesis is confiImed, both as regards the number of legislative and the number of presidential parties .

Influence of effective number of pulses on the morphological structure of teeth and bovine femur after femtosecond laser ablation

Femtosecond lasers have been widely used in laser surgery as an instrument for contact-free tissue removal of hard dental, restorative materials, and osseous tissues, complementing conventional drilling or cutting tools. In order to obtain a laser system that provides an ablation efficiency comparable to mechanical instruments, the laser pulse rate must be maximal without causing thermal damage. The aim of this study was to compare the different morphological characteristics of the hard tissue after exposure to lasers operating in the femtosecond pulse regime. Two different kinds of samples were irradiated: dentin from human extracted teeth and bovine femur samples. Different procedures were applied, while paying special care to preserving the structures. The incubation factor S was calculated to be 0.788 +/- 0.004 for the bovine femur bone. These results indicate that the incubation effect is still substantial during the femtosecond laser ablation of hard tissues. The plasma-induced ablation has reduced side effects, i.e., we observe less thermal and mechanical damage when using a superficial femtosecond laser irradiation close to the threshold conditions. In the femtosecond regime, the morphology characteristics of the cavity were strongly influenced by the change of the effective number of pulses. (C) 2012 Society of Photo-Optical Instrumentation Engineers (SPIE). [DOI: 10.1117/1.JBO.17.4.048001]

Effective number of accessed nodes in complex networks

The measurement called accessibility has been proposed as a means to quantify the efficiency of the communication between nodes in complex networks. This article reports results regarding the properties of accessibility, including its relationship with the average minimal time to visit all nodes reachable after h steps along a random walk starting from a source, as well as the number of nodes that are visited after a finite period of time. We characterize the relationship between accessibility and the average number of walks required in order to visit all reachable nodes (the exploration time), conjecture that the maximum accessibility implies the minimal exploration time, and confirm the relationship between the accessibility values and the number of nodes visited after a basic time unit. The latter relationship is investigated with respect to three types of dynamics: traditional random walks, self-avoiding random walks, and preferential random walks.

Voting behavior in Indonesia from 1999 to 2014 : religious cleavage or economic performance?

In this study, we examine the voting behavior in Indonesian parliamentary elections from 1999 to 2014. After summarizing the changes in Indonesian parties' share of the vote from a historical standpoint, we investigate the voting behavior with simple regression models to analyze the effect of regional characteristics on Islamic/secular parties' vote share, using aggregated panel data at the district level. Then, we also test the hypothesis of retrospective economic voting. The results show that districts which formerly stood strongly behind Islamic parties continued to select those parties, or gave preference to abstention over the parties in some elections. From the point of view of retrospective economic voting, we found that districts which experienced higher per capita economic growth gave more support to the ruling parties, although our results remain tentative because information on 2014 is not yet available.

Patriotic recitations and readings, containing a large number of the most effective, eloquent, instructive and brilliant selections for Fourth of July, Decoration, Arbor and Labor Day, Washington and Lincoln's birthdays, and all other holiday celebrations.

Mode of access: Internet.

Remarks on Article IX., in the eighty-fourth number of the North American Review : (July, 1834,) entitled Origin and character of the old parties...

Mode of access: Internet.

Spawning habitat selection by Octopus vulgaris: new insights for a more effective management of this resource

The selection of spawning habitat of a population of Octopus vulgaris that is subject to a small-scale exploitation was studied in the Cíes Islands within the National Park of the Atlantic Islands of Galicia (NW Spain). The technique used was visual censuses by scuba diving. We conducted 93 visual censuses from April 2012 to April 2014. The total swept area was 123.69 ha. Habitat features (season, depth, zone, bottom temperature, swept area, bottom substrate type, and creels fishing impact) were evaluated as predictors of the presence/absence of spawning dens using GAM models. O. vulgaris has a noteworthy preference for spawning in areas with hard bottom substrate and moderate depth (approximately 20 m). The higher density of spawning dens (1.08ha−1) was found in a surveyed area of 50.14ha located in the northeastern part of the northern Cíes Island. We propose to protect the area comprised from Punta Escodelo to Punta Ferreiro between 5 and 30 m depth. This area has a surface of 158 ha equivalent to 5.98% of the total marine area of the Cíes islands. The strengths and weaknesses of a management strategy based on the protection of the species’ spawning habitat are discussed.

Random mating with a finite number of matings.

Random mating is the null model central to population genetics. One assumption behind random mating is that individuals mate an infinite number of times. This is obviously unrealistic. Here we show that when each female mates a finite number of times, the effective size of the population is substantially decreased.

Effective size of two feral domestic cat populations (Felis catus L): effect of the mating system.

A variety of behavioural traits have substantial effects on the gene dynamics and genetic structure of local populations. The mating system is a plastic trait that varies with environmental conditions in the domestic cat (Felis catus) allowing an intraspecific comparison of the impact of this feature on genetic characteristics of the population. To assess the potential effect of the heterogenity of males' contribution to the next generation on variance effective size, we applied the ecological approach of Nunney & Elam (1994) based upon a demographic and behavioural study, and the genetic 'temporal methods' of Waples (1989) and Berthier et al. (2002) using microsatellite markers. The two cat populations studied were nearly closed, similar in size and survival parameters, but differed in their mating system. Immigration appeared extremely restricted in both cases due to environmental and social constraints. As expected, the ratio of effective size to census number (Ne/N) was higher in the promiscuous cat population (harmonic mean = 42%) than in the polygynous one (33%), when Ne was calculated from the ecological method. Only the genetic results based on Waples' estimator were consistent with the ecological results, but failed to evidence an effect of the mating system. Results based on the estimation of Berthier et al. (2002) were extremely variable, with Ne sometimes exceeding census size. Such low reliability in the genetic results should retain attention for conservation purposes.

The Effect of Four-Lane to Three-Lane Conversion on the Number of Crashes and Crash Rates in Iowa Roads, June 2005

We analyze crash data collected by the Iowa Department of Transportation using Bayesian methods. The data set includes monthly crash numbers, estimated monthly traffic volumes, site length and other information collected at 30 paired sites in Iowa over more than 20 years during which an intervention experiment was set up. The intervention consisted in transforming 15 undivided road segments from four-lane to three lanes, while an additional 15 segments, thought to be comparable in terms of traffic safety-related characteristics were not converted. The main objective of this work is to find out whether the intervention reduces the number of crashes and the crash rates at the treated sites. We fitted a hierarchical Poisson regression model with a change-point to the number of monthly crashes per mile at each of the sites. Explanatory variables in the model included estimated monthly traffic volume, time, an indicator for intervention reflecting whether the site was a “treatment” or a “control” site, and various interactions. We accounted for seasonal effects in the number of crashes at a site by including smooth trigonometric functions with three different periods to reflect the four seasons of the year. A change-point at the month and year in which the intervention was completed for treated sites was also included. The number of crashes at a site can be thought to follow a Poisson distribution. To estimate the association between crashes and the explanatory variables, we used a log link function and added a random effect to account for overdispersion and for autocorrelation among observations obtained at the same site. We used proper but non-informative priors for all parameters in the model, and carried out all calculations using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods implemented in WinBUGS. We evaluated the effect of the four to three-lane conversion by comparing the expected number of crashes per year per mile during the years preceding the conversion and following the conversion for treatment and control sites. We estimated this difference using the observed traffic volumes at each site and also on a per 100,000,000 vehicles. We also conducted a prospective analysis to forecast the expected number of crashes per mile at each site in the study one year, three years and five years following the four to three-lane conversion. Posterior predictive distributions of the number of crashes, the crash rate and the percent reduction in crashes per mile were obtained for each site for the months of January and June one, three and five years after completion of the intervention. The model appears to fit the data well. We found that in most sites, the intervention was effective and reduced the number of crashes. Overall, and for the observed traffic volumes, the reduction in the expected number of crashes per year and mile at converted sites was 32.3% (31.4% to 33.5% with 95% probability) while at the control sites, the reduction was estimated to be 7.1% (5.7% to 8.2% with 95% probability). When the reduction in the expected number of crashes per year, mile and 100,000,000 AADT was computed, the estimates were 44.3% (43.9% to 44.6%) and 25.5% (24.6% to 26.0%) for converted and control sites, respectively. In both cases, the difference in the percent reduction in the expected number of crashes during the years following the conversion was significantly larger at converted sites than at control sites, even though the number of crashes appears to decline over time at all sites. Results indicate that the reduction in the expected number of sites per mile has a steeper negative slope at converted than at control sites. Consistent with this, the forecasted reduction in the number of crashes per year and mile during the years after completion of the conversion at converted sites is more pronounced than at control sites. Seasonal effects on the number of crashes have been well-documented. In this dataset, we found that, as expected, the expected number of monthly crashes per mile tends to be higher during winter months than during the rest of the year. Perhaps more interestingly, we found that there is an interaction between the four to three-lane conversion and season; the reduction in the number of crashes appears to be more pronounced during months, when the weather is nice than during other times of the year, even though a reduction was estimated for the entire year. Thus, it appears that the four to three-lane conversion, while effective year-round, is particularly effective in reducing the expected number of crashes in nice weather.

An estimate of the potential number of mayfly species (Ephemeroptera, Insecta) still to be described in Brazil

ABSTRACTThis study reviewed the data on the Brazilian Ephemeroptera, based on the studies published before July, 2013, estimated the number of species still to be described, and identified which regions of the country have been the subject of least research. More than half the species are known from the description of only one developmental stage, with imagoes being described more frequently than nymphs. The Brazilian Northeast is the region with the weakest database. Body size affected description rates, with a strong tendency for the larger species to be described first. The estimated number of unknown Brazilian species was accentuated by the fact that so few species have been described so far. The steep slope of the asymptote and the considerable confidence interval of the estimate reinforce the conclusion that a large number of species are still to be described. This emphasizes the need for investments in the training of specialists in systematics and ecology for all regions of Brazil to correct these deficiencies, given the role of published papers as a primary source of information, and the fundamental importance of taxonomic knowledge for the development of effective measures for the conservation of ephemeropteran and the aquatic ecosystems they depend on.

A step beyond--the relevance of depressed mood and mastery in the interplay between the number of social roles and alcohol use.

OBJECTIVES: The present study examines whether depressed mood and external control mediate or moderate the relationship between the number of social roles and alcohol use. PARTICIPANTS: The analysis was based on a national representative sample of 25- to 45-year-old male and female drinkers in Switzerland. METHOD: The influence of depressed mood and external control on the relationship between the number of social roles (parenthood, partnership, employment) and alcohol use was examined in linear structural equation models (mediation) and in multiple regressions (moderation) stratified by gender. All analyses were adjusted for age and education level. RESULTS: Holding more roles was associated with lower alcohol use, lower external control and lower depressed mood. The study did not find evidence of depressed mood or external control mediating the social roles-alcohol relationship. A moderation effect was identified among women only, whereby a protective effect of having more roles could not be found among those who scored high on external control. In general, a stronger link was observed between roles and alcohol use, while depressed mood and external control acted independently on drinking. With the exception of women with high external control, the study found no link between a higher number of social roles and greater alcohol use. CONCLUSION: Our results indicate that drinking behaviours are more strongly linked to external control and depressed mood than they are to the number of social roles. The study also demonstrates that in any effective alcohol prevention policy, societal actions that enable individuals to combine more social roles play a central role.

The Effect of a Physical Activity Program on the Total Number of Primary Care Visits in Inactive Patients: A 15-Month Randomized Controlled Trial

Abstract Background: Effective promotion of exercise could result in substantial savings in healthcare cost expenses in terms of direct medical costs, such as the number of medical appointments. However, this is hampered by our limited knowledge of how to achieve sustained increases in physical activity. Objectives: To assess the effectiveness of a Primary Health Care (PHC) based physical activity program in reducing the total number of visits to the healthcare center among inactive patients, over a 15-month period. Research Design: Randomized controlled trial. Subjects: Three hundred and sixty-two (n = 362) inactive patients suffering from at least one chronic condition were included. One hundred and eighty-three patients (n = 183; mean (SD); 68.3 (8.8) years; 118 women) were randomly allocated to the physical activity program (IG). One hundred and seventy-nine patients (n = 179; 67.2 (9.1) years; 106 women) were allocated to the control group (CG). The IG went through a three-month standardized physical activity program led by physical activity specialists and linked to community resources. Measures: The total number of medical appointments to the PHC, during twelve months before and after the program, was registered. Self-reported health status (SF-12 version 2) was assessed at baseline (month 0), at the end of the intervention (month 3), and at 12 months follow-up after the end of the intervention (month 15). Results: The IG had a significantly reduced number of visits during the 12 months after the intervention: 14.8 (8.5). The CG remained about the same: 18.2 (11.1) (P = .002). Conclusions: Our findings indicate that a 3-month physical activity program linked to community resources is a shortduration, effective and sustainable intervention in inactive patients to decrease rates of PHC visits. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00714831