Weak and Strong Altruism in Trait Groups: Reproductive Suicide, Personal Fitness, and Expected Value

A simple variant of trait group selection, employing predators as the mechanism underlying group selection, supports contingent reproductive suicide as altruism (i.e., behavior lowering personal fitness while augmenting that of another) without kin assortment. The contingent suicidal type may either saturate the population or be polymorphic with a type avoiding suicide, depending on parameters. In addition to contingent suicide, this randomly assorting morph may also exhibit continuously expressed strong altruism (sensu Wilson 1979) usually thought restricted to kin selection. The model will not, however, support a sterile worker caste as such, where sterility occurs before life history events associated with effective altruism; reproductive suicide must remain fundamentally contingent (facultative sensu West Eberhard 1987; Myles 1988) under random assortment. The continuously expressed strong altruism supported by the model may be reinterpreted as probability of arbitrarily committing reproductive suicide, without benefit for another; such arbitrary suicide (a "load" on "adaptive" suicide) is viable only under a more restricted parameter space relative to the necessarily concomitant adaptive contingent suicide.

Weak and strong altruism in traitgGroups: Reproductive suicide, personal fitness and expected value

A simple variant of trait group selection, employing predators as themechanism underlying group selection, supports contingent reproductivesuicide as altruism (i.e., behavior lowering personal fitness whileaugmenting that of another) without kin assortment. The contingentsuicidal type may either saturate the population or be polymorphicwith a type avoiding suicide, depending on parameters. In addition tocontingent suicide, this randomly assorting morph may also exhibitcontinuously expressed strong altruism (sensu Wilson 1979) usuallythought restricted to kin selection. The model will not, however,support a sterile worker caste as such, where sterility occurs beforelife history events associated with effective altruism; reproductivesuicide must remain fundamentally contingent (facultative sensu WestEberhard 1987; Myles 1988) under random assortment. The continuouslyexpressed strong altruism supported by the model may be reinterpretedas probability of arbitrarily committing reproductive suicide, withoutbenefit for another; such arbitrary suicide (a "load" on "adaptive"suicide) is viable only under a more restricted parameter spacerelative to the necessarily concomitant adaptive contingent suicide.

Expected value, reward outcome, and temporal difference error representations in a probabilistic decision task

In probabilistic decision tasks, an expected value (EV) of a choice is calculated, and after the choice has been made, this can be updated based on a temporal difference (TD) prediction error between the EV and the reward magnitude (RM) obtained. The EV is measured as the probability of obtaining a reward x RM. To understand the contribution of different brain areas to these decision-making processes, functional magnetic resonance imaging activations related to EV versus RM (or outcome) were measured in a probabilistic decision task. Activations in the medial orbitofrontal cortex were correlated with both RM and with EV and confirmed in a conjunction analysis to extend toward the pregenual cingulate cortex. From these representations, TD reward prediction errors could be produced. Activations in areas that receive from the orbitofrontal cortex including the ventral striatum, midbrain, and inferior frontal gyrus were correlated with the TD error. Activations in the anterior insula were correlated negatively with EV, occurring when low reward outcomes were expected, and also with the uncertainty of the reward, implicating this region in basic and crucial decision-making parameters, low expected outcomes, and uncertainty.

A fuzzy expected value approach under generalized data envelopment analysis

Fuzzy data envelopment analysis (DEA) models emerge as another class of DEA models to account for imprecise inputs and outputs for decision making units (DMUs). Although several approaches for solving fuzzy DEA models have been developed, there are some drawbacks, ranging from the inability to provide satisfactory discrimination power to simplistic numerical examples that handles only triangular fuzzy numbers or symmetrical fuzzy numbers. To address these drawbacks, this paper proposes using the concept of expected value in generalized DEA (GDEA) model. This allows the unification of three models - fuzzy expected CCR, fuzzy expected BCC, and fuzzy expected FDH models - and the ability of these models to handle both symmetrical and asymmetrical fuzzy numbers. We also explored the role of fuzzy GDEA model as a ranking method and compared it to existing super-efficiency evaluation models. Our proposed model is always feasible, while infeasibility problems remain in certain cases under existing super-efficiency models. In order to illustrate the performance of the proposed method, it is first tested using two established numerical examples and compared with the results obtained from alternative methods. A third example on energy dependency among 23 European Union (EU) member countries is further used to validate and describe the efficacy of our approach under asymmetric fuzzy numbers.

A Common-feature approach for testing present-value restrictions with financial data

It is well known that cointegration between the level of two variables (labeled Yt and yt in this paper) is a necessary condition to assess the empirical validity of a present-value model (PV and PVM, respectively, hereafter) linking them. The work on cointegration has been so prevalent that it is often overlooked that another necessary condition for the PVM to hold is that the forecast error entailed by the model is orthogonal to the past. The basis of this result is the use of rational expectations in forecasting future values of variables in the PVM. If this condition fails, the present-value equation will not be valid, since it will contain an additional term capturing the (non-zero) conditional expected value of future error terms. Our article has a few novel contributions, but two stand out. First, in testing for PVMs, we advise to split the restrictions implied by PV relationships into orthogonality conditions (or reduced rank restrictions) before additional tests on the value of parameters. We show that PV relationships entail a weak-form common feature relationship as in Hecq, Palm, and Urbain (2006) and in Athanasopoulos, Guillén, Issler and Vahid (2011) and also a polynomial serial-correlation common feature relationship as in Cubadda and Hecq (2001), which represent restrictions on dynamic models which allow several tests for the existence of PV relationships to be used. Because these relationships occur mostly with nancial data, we propose tests based on generalized method of moment (GMM) estimates, where it is straightforward to propose robust tests in the presence of heteroskedasticity. We also propose a robust Wald test developed to investigate the presence of reduced rank models. Their performance is evaluated in a Monte-Carlo exercise. Second, in the context of asset pricing, we propose applying a permanent-transitory (PT) decomposition based on Beveridge and Nelson (1981), which focus on extracting the long-run component of asset prices, a key concept in modern nancial theory as discussed in Alvarez and Jermann (2005), Hansen and Scheinkman (2009), and Nieuwerburgh, Lustig, Verdelhan (2010). Here again we can exploit the results developed in the common cycle literature to easily extract permament and transitory components under both long and also short-run restrictions. The techniques discussed herein are applied to long span annual data on long- and short-term interest rates and on price and dividend for the U.S. economy. In both applications we do not reject the existence of a common cyclical feature vector linking these two series. Extracting the long-run component shows the usefulness of our approach and highlights the presence of asset-pricing bubbles.

Estimating the recreational-use value for hiking in Bellenden Ker National Park, Australia

The recreational-use value of hiking in the Bellenden Ker National Park, Australia has been estimated using a zonal travel cost model. Multiple destination visitors have been accounted for by converting visitors' own ordinal ranking of the various sites visited to numerical weights, using an expected-value approach. The value of hiking and camping in this national park was found to be $AUS 250,825 per year, or $AUS 144,45 per visitor per year, which is similar to findings from other studies valuing recreational benefits. The management of the park can use these estimates when considering the introduction of a system of user pays fees. In addition, they might be important when decisions need to be made about the allocation of resources for maintenance or upgrade of tracks and facilities.

Rastreamento automatico de trajetorias de jogadores de futebol por videogrametria : validação do metodo e analise dos resultados

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

Galerkin Solution of Stochastic Beam Bending on Winkler Foundations

In this paper, the Askey-Wiener scheme and the Galerkin method are used to obtain approximate solutions to stochastic beam bending on Winkler foundation. The study addresses Euler-Bernoulli beams with uncertainty in the bending stiffness modulus and in the stiffness of the foundation. Uncertainties are represented by parameterized stochastic processes. The random behavior of beam response is modeled using the Askey-Wiener scheme. One contribution of the paper is a sketch of proof of existence and uniqueness of the solution to problems involving fourth order operators applied to random fields. From the approximate Galerkin solution, expected value and variance of beam displacement responses are derived, and compared with corresponding estimates obtained via Monte Carlo simulation. Results show very fast convergence and excellent accuracies in comparison to Monte Carlo simulation. The Askey-Wiener Galerkin scheme presented herein is shown to be a theoretically solid and numerically efficient method for the solution of stochastic problems in engineering.

On the Filtering Problem for Continuous-Time Markov Jump Linear Systems with no Observation of the Markov Chain

We consider in this paper the optimal stationary dynamic linear filtering problem for continuous-time linear systems subject to Markovian jumps in the parameters (LSMJP) and additive noise (Wiener process). It is assumed that only an output of the system is available and therefore the values of the jump parameter are not accessible. It is a well known fact that in this setting the optimal nonlinear filter is infinite dimensional, which makes the linear filtering a natural numerically, treatable choice. The goal is to design a dynamic linear filter such that the closed loop system is mean square stable and minimizes the stationary expected value of the mean square estimation error. It is shown that an explicit analytical solution to this optimal filtering problem is obtained from the stationary solution associated to a certain Riccati equation. It is also shown that the problem can be formulated using a linear matrix inequalities (LMI) approach, which can be extended to consider convex polytopic uncertainties on the parameters of the possible modes of operation of the system and on the transition rate matrix of the Markov process. As far as the authors are aware of this is the first time that this stationary filtering problem (exact and robust versions) for LSMJP with no knowledge of the Markov jump parameters is considered in the literature. Finally, we illustrate the results with an example.

Continuous reproduction and recruitment in the narrowback mud crab Panopeus americanus (Brachyura, Panopeidae) in a remnant human-impacted mangrove area

The population structure, reproductive period, and juvenile recruitment of Panopeus americanus were studied in order to enhance knowledge of its life cycle and reproductive strategy and promote the maintenance of its natural stocks in an impacted region. Specimens were collected in the remnant human-impacted mangrove at Araca, state of Sao Paulo, Brazil, at two-month intervals from January to November 2005, at low tide, with a capture effort by three people. The crabs were measured (carapace width, CW) and sexed. The total catch was 275 animals, including 132 males (48.0%); 127 females (46.2%), of which 39 were ovigerous (14.2% of total catch); and 16 individuals whose sex could not be identified (5.8%). No correlation was observed between water temperature and the number of collected individuals; however, there was a significant, positive correlation with salinity. Males were significantly larger than females. The size-frequency distribution was bimodal, reflecting the occurrende of more than one recruitment pulse and the differential abundance of adults during the period of study. The overall sex ratio was 1:0.97 favoring males, and was not significantly different from the expected value, i.e., this population fits the anomalous pattern of sex occurrence in size classes. Ovigerous females were captured in all sampled months, which explain the continuous recruitment observed. Expected low levels of individuals of different size classes in the population were not confirmed. All population aspects found here allowed us to infer that this population of P. americanus is well established in the impacted mangrove by virtue of its reproductive strategy.

Sequential asymmetric auctions with endogenous participation

In this paper we suggest a model of sequential auctions with endogenous participation where each bidder conjectures about the number of participants at each round. Then, after learning his value, each bidder decides whether or not to participate in the auction. In the calculation of his expected value, each bidder uses his conjectures about the number of participants for each possible subgroup. In equilibrium, the conjectured probability is compatible with the probability of staying in the auction. In our model, players face participation costs, bidders may buy as many objects as they wish and they are allowed to drop out at any round. Bidders can drop out at any time, but they cannot come back to the auction. In particular we can determine the number of participants and expected prices in equilibrium. We show that for any bidding strategy, there exists such a probability of staying in the auction. For the case of stochastically independent objects, we show that in equilibrium every bidder who decides to continue submits a bid that is equal to his value at each round. When objects are stochastically identical, we are able to show that expected prices are decreasing.

Assessing Interethnic Admixture Using an X-Linked Insertion-Deletion Multiplex

In this study, a PCR multiplex was optimized, allowing the simultaneous analysis of 13 X-chromosome Insertion/deletion polymorphisms (INDELs). Genetic variation observed in Africans, Europeans, and Native Americans reveals high inter-population variability. The estimated proportions of X-chromosomes in an admixed population from the Brazilian Amazon region show a predominant Amerindian contribution (congruent to 41%), followed by European (congruent to 32%) and African (congruent to 27%) contributions. The proportion of Amerindian contribution based on X-linked data is similar to the expected value based on mtDNA and Y-chromosome information. The accuracy for assessing interethnic admixture, and the high differentiation between African, European, and Native American populations, demonstrates the suitability of this INDEL set to measure ancestry proportions in three-hybrid populations, as it is the case of Latin American populations. Am. J. Hum. Biol. 21:707-709, 2009. (C) 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Integrals for continuous-time Markov chains

This paper presents a method of evaluating the expected value of a path integral for a general Markov chain on a countable state space. We illustrate the method with reference to several models, including birth-death processes and the birth, death and catastrophe process. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.

Efeito de um programa de exercícios segundo Pilates em indivíduos com asma controlada – controlo motor vs. função ventilatória

Introdução: Embora existam estratégias para coordenar as funções postural e ventilatória numa situação normal, isto pode não ser verdade quando a necessidade para uma das funções está aumentada, como por exemplo em patologia respiratória (asma) ou no exercício físico, em que subsistem maiores necessidades ventilatórias. O método Pilates, que foca a relação entre o corpo e a disciplina mental, visa prosperar a saúde e o bem-estar pelo enfatizar da boa postura, do alinhamento corporal e da coordenação da ventilação com o movimento. Objectivo: Comparar características de controlo motor e parâmetros ventilatórios em asmáticos controlados e indivíduos sem patologia, e verificar o efeito de um programa de exercícios segundo Pilates nesses outcomes em indivíduos com asma controlada. Métodos: Estudo quasi-experimental, com uma amostra constituída por 21 estudantes voluntários, 7 pertencentes ao “grupo sem patologia”, 7 ao “grupo controlo asmático” e 7 ao “grupo experimental asmático”. Para avaliação do timing de ativação e do padrão de recrutamento muscular no movimento rápido do membro superior foi utilizada eletromiografia de superfície do Diafragma, Eretor da Coluna, Multífidos, Oblíquo Externo, Reto Anterior e Transverso Abdominal/Oblíquo Interno. Foram também avaliados parâmetros de função ventilatória: a percentagem de volume expiratório forçado no primeiro segundo do previsto, o débito expiratório máximo instantâneo, a ventilação máxima voluntária, a pressão inspiratória máxima e a pressão expiratória máxima. As avaliações decorreram antes e após 8 semanas da aplicação de um programa de exercícios segundo Pilates no grupo experimental asmático, com exceção do grupo sem patologia que realizou apenas o primeiro momento de avaliação. Resultados: O grupo controlo asmático apresentou um timing de ativação significativamente maior do Transverso Abdominal/Oblíquo Interno e do Diafragma, em relação ao grupo sem patologia. Nos parâmetros ventilatórios, o grupo controlo asmático apresentou menores valores de percentagem de volume expiratório no primeiro segundo do previsto, de débito expiratório máximo instantâneo e de pressão expiratória máxima. Após a realização do programa de exercícios segundo Pilates verificaram-se alterações significativas no timing de activação do Eretor da Coluna, do Multífidos, do Transverso/Oblíquo Interno e do Diafragma, tendo ambos diminuído no grupo experimental asmático. Ainda, o grupo experimental asmático, em relação aos parâmetros ventilatórios, apresentou diferenças significativas no débito expiratório máximo instantâneo, na ventilação máxima voluntária e na pressão expiratória máxima, tendo ambos aumentado estes valores. Conclusão: Os asmáticos controlados parecem possuir características de controlo motor, especificamente no timing de ativação, e valores de parâmetros ventilatórios diferentes em comparação aos indivíduos sem patologia. O programa de exercícios segundo Pilates, implementado no grupo experimental asmático, parece ter influenciado positivamente esses outcomes.

Cobertura de risco ou especulação? : Evidência da utilização de derivados pelas empresas portuguesas durante a recente crise financeira

Mestrado em Contabilidade