Proposta de construção de uma nova família de índices de commodities para o mercado financeiro brasileiro

Este trabalho levantou a seguinte questão central: É possível a criação de um índice de commodities referenciado no mercado de derivativos brasileiro, onde agentes financeiros consigam replicar o retorno deste, que sirva como benchmark para decisões estratégicas de investimentos, e para decisões temporais de hedge para empresas que tem seus negócios fundamentados em commodities?

Futuros financeiros: uma abordagem aos commodities de algodão

Dissertação de Mestrado Apresentado ao Instituto de Contabilidade e Administração do Porto para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Contabilidade e Finanças, sob orientação de Mestre José Carlos Pedro

Modelos de apreçamento e cobertura para derivados sobre matérias-primas (Commodities)

Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Matemática e as suas aplicações-Ramo Ciências Actuariais

Defective protein folding and function in metabolic disorders: studies on the mitochondrial flavoenzyme ETF

Dissertation presented to obtain the PhD degree in Biochemistry at the Instituto de Tecnologia Química e Biológica, Universidade Nova de Lisboa

The effects of OF ETF creation on the price efficiency of underlying stocks

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Modelos de previsão de preços de commodities

O principal objectivo deste trabalho assenta em desenvolver modelos de previsão de preços de commodities para assim comparar a capacidade preditiva da simulação de Monte Carlo com a das redes neuronais. A simulação de Monte Carlo é principalmente utilizada para avaliar as opções, já as redes neuronais são utilizadas para fazer previsões, classificações, clustering ou aproximação de funções. Os diversos modelos desenvolvidos foram aplicados na previsão do preço futuro do milho, petróleo, ouro e cobre. Sendo que os horizontes temporais testados neste trabalho foram 1 dia, 5 dias, 20 dias e 60 dias. Através da análise do erro absoluto médio percentual (MAPE) concluiu-se que no geral o modelo individual que apresentou um melhor desempenho preditivo foram as redes neuronais. Contudo, nas previsões a 1 e a 5 dias os resultados obtidos foram semelhantes para ambos os modelos. Para se tentar melhorar os resultados obtidos pelos modelos individuais foram aplicadas algumas técnicas de combinação de modelos. A combinação de modelos demonstrou no geral capacidade para melhorar os resultados dos modelos individuais, porém apenas para o horizonte a 60 dias é que os resultados melhoraram significativamente.

Macroeconomic risk in commodities market

The thesis studies the presence of macroeconomic risk in the commodities futures market. I present strong evidence that there is a strong relationship between macroeconomic risk and individual commodities future returns. Furthermore, long-only trading strategies seem to be strongly exposed to systematic risk, while long-short trading strategies (based on basis, momentum and basis-momentum) are found to present no such risk. Instead, I found a strong sentiment exposure in the portfolio returns of these long-short strategies, mainly during recessions. The advantages of following long-short strategies become even clearer when analyzing different macroeconomic regimes.

Combining analytical methodologies for the identification of Aspergillus section Flavi strains isolated from Brazilian agricultural commodities

The use of chemical analysis of microbial components, including proteins, became an important achievement in the 80’s of the last century to the microbial identification. This led a more objective microbial identification scheme, called chemotaxonomy, and the analytical tools used in the field are mainly 1D/2D gel electrophoresis, spectrophotometry, high-performance liquid chromatography, gas chromatography, and combined gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. The Edman degradation reaction was also applied to peptides sequence giving important insights to the microbial identification. The rapid development of these techniques, in association with knowledge generated by DNA sequencing and phylogeny based on rRNA gene and housekeeping genes sequences, boosted the microbial identification to an unparalleled scale. The recent results of mass spectrometry (MS), like Matrix-Assisted Laser Desorption/Ionisation Time-of-Flight (MALDI-TOF), for rapid and reliable microbial identification showed considerable promise. In addition, the technique is rapid, reliable and inexpensive in terms of labour and consumables when compared with other biological techniques. At present, MALDI-TOF MS adds an additional step for polyphasic identification which is essential when there is a paucity of characters or high DNA homologies for delimiting very close related species. The full impact of this approach is now being appreciated when more diverse species are studied in detail and successfully identified. However, even with the best polyphasic system, identification of some taxa remains time-consuming and determining what represents a species remains subjective. The possibilities opened with new and even more robust mass spectrometers combined with sound and reliable databases allow not only the microbial identification based on the proteome fingerprinting but also include de novo specific proteins sequencing as additional step. These approaches are pushing the boundaries in the microbial identification field.

Use of a polyphasic approach including MALDI-TOF MS for identification of Aspergillus section Flavi strains isolated from food commodities in Brazil

Brazil is one the largest producers and exporters of food commodities in the world. The evaluation of fungi capable of spoilage and the production mycotoxins in these commodities is an important issue that can be of help in bioeconomic development. The present work aimed to identify fungi of the genus Aspergillus section Flavi isolated from different food commodities in Brazil. Thirty-five fungal isolates belonging to the section Flavi were identified and characterised. Different classic phenotypic and genotypic methodologies were used, as well as a novel approach based on proteomic profiles produced by matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionisation time-of-flight mass spectrometry (MALDI-TOF MS). Type or reference strains for each taxonomic group were included in this study. Three isolates that presented discordant identification patterns were further analysed using the internal transcribed spacer (ITS) region and calmodulin gene sequences. The data obtained from the phenotypic and spectral analyses divide the isolates into three groups, corresponding to taxa closely related to Aspergillus flavus, Aspergillus parasiticus, and Aspergillus tamarii. Final polyphasic fungal identification was achieved by joining data from molecular analyses, classical morphology, and biochemical and proteomic profiles generated by MALDI-TOF MS.

Non-Cooperative Asymptotic Oligopoly in Economies with Infinitely Many Commodities

In this paper, we extend the non-cooperative analysis of oligopoly to exchange economics with infinitely many commodities by using strategic market games. This setting can be interpreted as a model of oligopoly with differentiated commodities by using the Hotelling line. We prove the existence of an "active" Cournot-Nash equilibrium and show that, when traders are replicated, the price vector and the allocation converge to the Walras equilibrium. We examine how the notion of oligopoly extends to our setting with a countable infinity of commodities by distinguishing between asymptotic oligopolists and asymptotic price-takes. We illustrate these notions via a number of examples.

Indexes of prices received by Iowa farmers for farm commodities.

The Iowa Crop and Livestock Report