Expert elicitation and its interface with technology : a review with a view to designing Elicitator

Expert knowledge is valuable in many modelling endeavours, particularly where data is not extensive or sufficiently robust. In Bayesian statistics, expert opinion may be formulated as informative priors, to provide an honest reflection of the current state of knowledge, before updating this with new information. Technology is increasingly being exploited to help support the process of eliciting such information. This paper reviews the benefits that have been gained from utilizing technology in this way. These benefits can be structured within a six-step elicitation design framework proposed recently (Low Choy et al., 2009). We assume that the purpose of elicitation is to formulate a Bayesian statistical prior, either to provide a standalone expert-defined model, or for updating new data within a Bayesian analysis. We also assume that the model has been pre-specified before selecting the software. In this case, technology has the most to offer to: targeting what experts know (E2), eliciting and encoding expert opinions (E4), whilst enhancing accuracy (E5), and providing an effective and efficient protocol (E6). Benefits include: -providing an environment with familiar nuances (to make the expert comfortable) where experts can explore their knowledge from various perspectives (E2); -automating tedious or repetitive tasks, thereby minimizing calculation errors, as well as encouraging interaction between elicitors and experts (E5); -cognitive gains by educating users, enabling instant feedback (E2, E4-E5), and providing alternative methods of communicating assessments and feedback information, since experts think and learn differently; and -ensuring a repeatable and transparent protocol is used (E6).

石油芳烃污染生物标记

从辽河油田不同石油污染地区采集土样，查明石油污染类型影响微生物群落生态分布。分离筛选得到6株优势菲降解菌B1（假单胞菌属），B2（黄单胞菌属），E3（黄杆菌属），E4 (假单胞菌属），E5（微杆菌属），E6（黄杆菌属）。B2、E4, E6含有质粒，大小均在25Kb左右。初步确定菲降解功能是由质粒控制的。菌株降解菲的能力与无细胞粗提液含有的菲双加氧酶活力的高低呈正相关。随着环境中菲浓度的增加。，菲双加氧酶活力、分子量为46KDa的蛋白量、降解质粒含量均随之增加，RNA不仅整体含量在增加，而且分子量为0. 45Kb的条带增加显著。 从E4菌分离纯化菲双加氧酶。分子量约为46KDa,表观分子量为120KDa；酶活最适pH为7.0,最适温度是29 ℃，最稳定的pH是中性，在温度超过40℃时，酶稳定性明显下降；乙酸钠抑制酶活性；H_2O_2浓度为0.4%时，双加氧酶活力提高最大；纯酶只氧化菲，有很强的底物特异性；当菲的浓度增加到80uM时，酶促反应速率达到最大，米氏常数约为40uM；0.1mM菲咯琳对菲双加氧酶有明显的抑制作用；二价铁离子不仅可以提高酶活性而且对双加氧酶有明显的激活作用。

HPV16 antibodies as risk factors for oropharyngeal cancer and their association with tumor HPV and smoking status.

BACKGROUND: Antibodies (Abs) to the HPV16 proteome increase risk for HPV-associated OPC (HPVOPC). The goal of this study was to investigate the association of a panel of HPV16 Abs with risk for OPC as well as the association of these Abs with tumor HPV and smoking status among patients with OPC. METHODS: IgG Abs to the HPV16 antigens E1, E2, E4, E5, E6, E7, L1, L2 were quantified using a programmable ELISA assay. Sera were obtained from 258 OPC patients at diagnosis and 250 healthy controls. HPV16 tumor status was measured by PCR for 137 cases. Multivariable logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratios for the association of HPV16 Abs with risk for OPC. RESULTS: HPV16 E1, E2, E4, E5, E6, E7 and L1-specific IgG levels were elevated in OPC patients compared to healthy controls (p<0.05). After multivariable adjustment, Ab positivity for NE2, CE2, E6, and/or E7 was associated with OPC risk (OR [95% CI], 249.1 [99.3-624.9]). Among patients with OPC, Ab positivity for these antigens was associated with tumor HPV status, especially among never or light smokers (OR [95% CI], 6.5 [2.1-20.1] and OR [95% CI], 17.5 [4.0-77.2], respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Antibodies to HPV16 proteins are associated with increased risk for HPVOPC. Among patients with OPC, HPV16 Abs are associated with tumor HPV status, in particular among HPV positive patients with no or little smoking history.

Sectoral Price Rigidity and Aggregate Dynamics

In this paper, we study the macroeconomic implications of sectoral heterogeneity and, in particular, heterogeneity in price setting, through the lens of a highly disaggregated multi-sector model. The model incorporates several realistic features and is estimated using a mix of aggregate and sectoral U.S. data. The frequencies of price changes implied by our estimates are remarkably consistent with those reported in micro-based studies, especially for non-sale prices. The model is used to study (i) the contribution of sectoral characteristics to the observed cross sectional heterogeneity in sectoral output and inflation responses to a monetary policy shock, (ii) the implications of sectoral price rigidity for aggregate output and inflation dynamics and for cost pass-through, and (iii) the role of sectoral shocks in explaining sectoral prices and quantities.

Monetary Policy When Wages Are Downwardly Rigid: Friedman Meets Tobin

In a monetary economy with downwardly rigid wages, the central banker should target a low, but strictly positive, inflation rate.

Comunidade de moluscos bentônicos na área de abrangência da Usina Hidrelétrica de Dona Francisca, Rio Jacuí, Rio Grande do Sul, Brasil : fase de pré e pós-enchimento do reservatório

A malacofauna límnica exerce importante papel como constituinte da comunidade bentônica e alterações em sua estrutura podem tornar-se prejudiciais para a vida nesses ecossistemas. Com o objetivo de avaliar quali-quantitativamente a malacofauna límnica na área de abrangência da Usina Hidrelétrica de Dona Francisca (UHEDF) (29°26’50’’S e 53°16’50’’W), Agudo, Rio Grande do Sul, Brasil, tomadas as amostras nas fases de pré-enchimento do reservatório em oito estações de coleta em áreas localizadas à montante (E3B, E4B, E5B), à jusante (E1) e na calha central do futuro lago da barragem (E2, E3, E4, E5) e pós-enchimento nas estações E1, E3B e E4B. No período de junho a outubro de 2000 (fase de pré-enchimento) e de junho a outubro de 2001 (fase de pós-enchimento) foram realizadas amostragens mensais, consistindo de três réplicas por estação de coleta (margens-centro), através do uso do amostrador de Surber modificado com área de 60 cm² e 15 cm de altura, delimitando o tamanho amostral. A fauna foi retirada manualmente dos clastos maiores sendo o sedimento de granulometria mais fina, passada através de peneira com malha de 1mm. Em laboratório foi realizada a identificação específica dos moluscos e da fauna acompanhante de macroinvertebrados , quando possível até família. Os organismos foram fixados em álcool 70%. Foram identificadas 10 famílias de Mollusca com quinze espécies. Para Gastropoda foram registradas seis famílias com nove espécies: Ampullariidae – Pomacea canaliculata (Lamarck, 1801); Hydrobiidae – Potamolithus aff. catharinae Pilsbry, 1911, Potamolithus ribeirensis Pilsbry, 1911, Potamolithus sp.1 e Heleobia sp.; Chilinidae – Chilina parva Martens, 1868; Lymnaeidae – Lymnaea columella Say, 1817; Ancylidae – Gundlachia concentrica (Orbigny, 1835); e Physidae – Stenophysa marmorata (Guilding, 1938). Para Bivalvia: Corbiculidae – Corbicula fluminea (Müller, 1774); Mycetopodidae – Anodontites iheringi (Clessin, 1882), Anodontites lucidus (Orbigny, 1835); Hyriidae – Diplodon charruanus (Orbigny, 1835); Sphaeriidae – Pisidium punctiferum (Guppy, 1817) e Pisidium sp. Na fase de pré-enchimento do reservatório, a correlação de Pearson apontou correlação positiva entre a granulometria e a densidade de moluscos (r=0,15) e correlação negativa entre os fatores físico-químicos e a densidade de moluscos bentônicos (r=-0,28). A análise de agrupamento das espécies de moluscos na fase de pré-enchimento evidenciou a formação de dois grupos distintos: o primeiro formado por espécies acidentais, segundo o cálculo da Constância, e o segundo formado por espécies constantes, xviii acessórias e uma acidental (Potamolithus sp.1) que no entanto foi abundante em E1 e E2. O resultado da freqüência relativa em relação à fase de pré-enchimento do reservatório mostrou a família Hydrobiidae, com quatro espécies, com maior abundância e riqueza de espécies, seguida por Chilinidae, representada por C. parva. Ambas as famílias representaram um total de 93,9% em relação à comunidade de moluscos amostrados. Tais resultados refletem o tipo de ambiente da área: leito formado por matacões e calhaus, favoráveis à instalação e manutenção daqueles moluscos. Na fase de pós-enchimento do reservatório foram registrados o aumento na riqueza e diversidade de espécies nas três estações de coleta amostradas (exceto em E3B – com menor diversidade no pós-enchimento) e diminuição significativa nas densidades mensais e totais de moluscos bentônicos. Os testes de aleatorização, entretanto, não revelaram diferenças significativas entre as duas fases e em relação ao funcionamento da UHEDF. Os fatores físico-químicos apontaram correlação positiva com a densidade de moluscos (r=0,19), ressaltando as diferenças significativas nos valores de pH, oxigênio dissolvido, oxigênio saturado nesta fase. Em E1 mais atingida pelo funcionamento da UHEDF, registrou-se uma acentuada diminuição nas densidades mensais e totais de moluscos bentônicos, não obstante, a riqueza e diversidade apresentaram maiores valores nesta fase. As espécies mantiveram-se as mesmas em ambas as fases.

Abundance and biomass of mesozooplankton from the Romanian littoral during DANUBS_2002 in spring and autumn 2002

The Danubs 2002 dataset contains zooplankton data collected in April, June,September and October 2002 in 11 station allong 5 transect in front of the Romanian littoral. Zooplankton sampling was undertaken at 11 stations where samples were collected using a Juday closing net in the 0-10, 10-25, and 25-50m layer (depending also on the water masses). The dataset includes samples analysed for mesozooplankton species composition and abundance. Sampling volume was estimated by multiplying the mouth area with the wire length. Taxon-specific mesozooplankton abundance was count under microscope. Total abundance is the sum of the counted individuals. Total biomass Fodder, Rotifera , Ctenophora and Noctiluca was estimated using a tabel with wet weight for each species an stage.

Abundance and biomass of zooplankton collected in front of the Danube Delta in May and September 1979

The Gurile Dunarii 1979 dataset contains zooplankton data collected in May and September 1979 in 13 station allong 3 transect in front of the Danube Delta (45°05' - 44°45'N, 30°02'- 29°27'E). Zooplankton sampling was undertaken at 13 stations where samples were collected using a Juday closing net in the 0-10, 10-20, 20-30, 30-40 and 40-50m layer (depending also on the water masses). The dataset includes samples analysed for mesozooplankton species composition and abundance. Sampling volume was estimated by multiplying the mouth area with the wire length. Taxon-specific mesozooplankton abundance was count under microscope. Total abundance is the sum of the counted individuals. Total biomass Fodder, Rotifera , Ctenophora and Noctiluca was estimated using a tabel with wet weight for each species an stage.

Abundance and biomass of mesozooplankton collected in front of the Danube Delta in May and September 1980

The Gurile Dunarii 1980 dataset contains zooplankton data collected in May and September 1980 in 14 station allong 3 transect in front of the Danube Delta (45°05' - 44°45'N, 30°02'- 29°27'E). Zooplankton sampling was undertaken at 14 stations where samples were collected using a Juday closing net in the 0-10, 10-25 and 25-50m layer (depending also on the water masses). The dataset includes samples analysed for mesozooplankton species composition and abundance. Sampling volume was estimated by multiplying the mouth area with the wire length. Taxon-specific mesozooplankton abundance was count under microscope. Total abundance is the sum of the counted individuals. Total biomass Fodder, Rotifera , Ctenophora and Noctiluca was estimated using a tabel with wet weight for each species an stage.

Abundance and biomass of mesozooplankton collected in front of the Danube Delta in April and September 1977

The Gurile Dunarii 1977 dataset contains zooplankton data collected in April and September 1977 in 14 station allong 3 transect in front of the Danube Delta. Zooplankton sampling was undertaken at 14 stations where samples were collected using a Juday closing net in the 0-10, 10-20, 20-30, 30-40 and 40-50m layer (depending also on the water masses). The dataset includes samples analysed for mesozooplankton species composition and abundance. Sampling volume was estimated by multiplying the mouth area with the wire length. Taxon-specific mesozooplankton abundance was count under microscope. Total abundance is the sum of the counted individuals. Total biomass Fodder, Rotifera , Ctenophora and Noctiluca was estimated using a tabel with wet weight for each species an stage.

Abundance and biomass of mesozooplankton from the Romanian littoral during DANUBS_2001 in spring and autumn 2001

The Danubs 2001 dataset contains zooplankton data collected in March, June, September and October 2001 in 11 station allong 5 transect in front of the Romanian littoral. Zooplankton sampling was undertaken at 11 stations where samples were collected using a Juday closing net in the 0-10, 10-25, and 25-50m layer (depending also on the water masses). The dataset includes samples analysed for mesozooplankton species composition and abundance. Sampling volume was estimated by multiplying the mouth area with the wire length. Taxon-specific mesozooplankton abundance was count under microscope. Total abundance is the sum of the counted individuals. Total biomass Fodder, Rotifera , Ctenophora and Noctiluca was estimated using a tabel with wet weight for each species an stage.

Constituciones de la sagrada Congregacion con titulo de Esclavitud del... patriarca... S. Joseph : erigida, y fundada en el... convento de San Phelipe Apostol, Orden de Carmelitas Descalzos, de... Valencia, año de 1743

Fecha 1744 tomada de la licencia, p.32

Abundance and biomass of mesozooplankton collected in front of the Danube Delta in May and October 1978

The Gurile Dunarii 1978 dataset contains zooplankton data collected in May and October 1978 in 14 station allong 3 transect in front of the Danube Delta (45°05' - 44°45'N, 30°02'- 29°27'E). Zooplankton sampling was undertaken at 14 stations where samples were collected using a Juday closing net in the 0-10, 10-20, 20-30, 30-40 and 40-50m layer (depending also on the water masses). The dataset includes samples analysed for mesozooplankton species composition and abundance. Sampling volume was estimated by multiplying the mouth area with the wire length. Taxon-specific mesozooplankton abundance was count under microscope. Total abundance is the sum of the counted individuals. Total biomass Fodder, Rotifera , Ctenophora and Noctiluca was estimated using a tabel with wet weight for each species an stage.

Complete genome sequence of Deltapapillomavirus 4 (bovine papillomavirus 2) from a bovine papillomavirus lesion in Amazon Region, Brazil

The complete genome sequence of bovine papillomavirus 2 (BPV2) from Brazilian Amazon Region was determined using multiple-primed rolling circle amplification followed by Illumina sequencing. The genome is 7,947 bp long, with 45.9% GC content. It encodes seven early (E1, E2, E4, E5, E6, E7, and E8) and two late (L1 and L2) genes. The complete genome of a BPV2 can help in future studies since this BPV type is highly reported worldwide although the lack of complete genome sequences available.