A doença oncológica no fórum da História: breve síntese sobre a evolução da luta anticancerosa em Portugal

Introdução – A doença oncológica tem sido assunto de abordagem historiográfica particularmente abundante no contexto internacional. No caso português só recentemente começaram a surgir os primeiros trabalhos em redor desta ampla temática. Objetivos – Revolvendo em torno da emergência e estruturação da luta anticancerosa no âmbito internacional, pretende-se apresentar uma breve síntese sobre a evolução deste fenómeno em Portugal na primeira metade do século XX. Metodologia – Análise documental. Qualitativa e heurística. Resultados/Discussão/Considerações finais – A luta contra a doença oncológica em Portugal não destoou do contexto médico-científico e do movimento internacional anticanceroso da primeira metade do século XX. No entanto, a emergência e a institucionalização do projeto anticanceroso nacional apresentou algumas particularidades. Inserido entre uma especialidade médica em processo de afirmação e as necessidades assistenciais dos cancerosos, resultou da conjugação de uma série de fatores que ultrapassam a mera assimilação de novas tecnologias médicas ou da criação de um espaço próprio para a prática da oncologia. Tornou-se também num meio para realizar um trabalho intenso de educação para a saúde, num instrumento de ponta na formação médica especializada e numa referência de modernidade científica no contexto do Estado Novo.

Business Cycle Regimes in CEECs Production: A Threshold SURE Approach

We use a threshold seemingly unrelated regressions specification to assess whether the Central and East European countries (CEECs) are synchronized in their business cycles to the Euro-area. This specification is useful in two ways: First, it takes into account the common institutional factors and the similarities across CEECs in their process of economic transition. Second, it captures business cycle asymmetries by allowing for the presence of two distinct regimes for the CEECs. As the CEECs are strongly affected by the Euro-area these regimes may be associated with Euro-area expansions and contractions. We discuss representation, estimation by maximum likelihood and inference. The methodology is illustrated by using monthly industrial production in 8 CEECs. The results show that apart from Lithuania the rest of the CEECs experience “normal” growth when the Euro-area contracts and “high” growth when the Euro-area expands. Given that the CEECs are “catching up” with the Euro-area this result shows that most CEECs seem synchronized to the Euro-area cycle. Keywords: Threshold SURE; asymmetry; business cycles; CEECs. JEL classification: C33; C50; E32.

Leading indicator properties of US high-yield credit spreads

In this paper we examine the out-of-sample forecast performance of high-yield credit spreads regarding real-time and revised data on employment and industrial production in the US. We evaluate models using both a point forecast and a probability forecast exercise. Our main findings suggest the use of few factors obtained by pooling information from a number of sector-specific high-yield credit spreads. This can be justified by observing that, especially for employment, there is a gain from using a principal components model fitted to high-yield credit spreads compared to the prediction produced by benchmarks, such as an AR, and ARDL models that use either the term spread or the aggregate high-yield spread as exogenous regressor. Moreover, forecasts based on real-time data are generally comparable to forecasts based on revised data. JEL Classification: C22; C53; E32 Keywords: Credit spreads; Principal components; Forecasting; Real-time data.

Anticipation, Learning and Welfare: the Case of Distortionary Taxation

We study the impact of anticipated fiscal policy changes in a Ramsey economy where agents form long-horizon expectations using adaptive learning. We extend the existing framework by introducing distortionary taxes as well as elastic labour supply, which makes agents. decisions non-predetermined but more realistic. We detect that the dynamic responses to anticipated tax changes under learning have oscillatory behaviour that can be interpreted as self-fulfilling waves of optimism and pessimism emerging from systematic forecast errors. Moreover, we demonstrate that these waves can have important implications for the welfare consequences of .scal reforms. (JEL: E32, E62, D84)

Is real GDP stationary? Evidence from a panel unit root test with cross-sectional dependence and historical data

We use historical data that cover more than one century on real GDP for industrial countries and employ the Pesaran panel unit root test that allows for cross-sectional dependence to test for a unit root on real GDP. We find strong evidence against the unit root null. Our results are robust to the chosen group of countries and the sample period. Key words: real GDP stationarity, cross-sectional dependence, CIPS test. JEL Classification: C23, E32

Hours worked - Productivity puzzle: identification in fractional integration settings

A recent finding of the structural VAR literature is that the response of hours worked to a technology shock depends on the assumption on the order of integration of the hours. In this work we relax this assumption, allowing for fractional integration and long memory in the process for hours and productivity. We find that the sign and magnitude of the estimated impulse responses of hours to a positive technology shock depend crucially on the assumptions applied to identify them. Responses estimated with short-run identification are positive and statistically significant in all datasets analyzed. Long-run identification results in negative often not statistically significant responses. We check validity of these assumptions with the Sims (1989) procedure, concluding that both types of assumptions are appropriate to recover the impulse responses of hours in a fractionally integrated VAR. However, the application of longrun identification results in a substantial increase of the sampling uncertainty. JEL Classification numbers: C22, E32. Keywords: technology shock, fractional integration, hours worked, structural VAR, identification

In vitro whole-genome analysis identifies a susceptibility locus for HIV-1.

Advances in large-scale analysis of human genomic variability provide unprecedented opportunities to study the genetic basis of susceptibility to infectious agents. We report here the use of an in vitro system for the identification of a locus on HSA8q24.3 associated with cellular susceptibility to HIV-1. This locus was mapped through quantitative linkage analysis using cell lines from multigeneration families, validated in vitro, and followed up by two independent association studies in HIV-positive individuals. Single nucleotide polymorphism rs2572886, which is associated with cellular susceptibility to HIV-1 in lymphoblastoid B cells and in primary T cells, was also associated with accelerated disease progression in one of two cohorts of HIV-1-infected patients. Biological analysis suggests a role of the rs2572886 region in the regulation of the LY6 family of glycosyl-phosphatidyl-inositol (GPI)-anchored proteins. Genetic analysis of in vitro cellular phenotypes provides an attractive approach for the discovery of susceptibility loci to infectious agents.

Shorter time since inflammatory bowel disease diagnosis in children is associated with lower mental health in parents.

AIM: This study assessed the mental health of parents of children with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), compared their mental health with age-matched and gender-matched references and examined parental and child predictors for mental health problems. METHODS: A total of 125 mothers and 106 fathers of 125 children with active and inactive IBD from the Swiss IBD multicentre cohort study were included. Parental mental health was assessed by the Symptom Checklist 27 and child behaviour problems by the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire. Child medical data were extracted from hospital records. RESULTS: While the mothers reported lower mental health, the fathers' mental health was similar, or even better, than in age-matched and gender-matched community controls. In both parents, shorter time since the child's diagnosis was associated with poorer mental health. In addition, the presence of their own IBD diagnosis and child behaviour problems predicted maternal mental health problems. CONCLUSIONS: Parents of children with IBD may need professional support when their child is diagnosed, to mitigate distress. This, in turn, may help the child to adjust better to IBD. Particular attention should be paid to mothers who have their own IBD diagnosis and whose children display behaviour problems.

Redução do acamamento em aveia-branca com uso do regulador de crescimento etil-trinexapac

O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar os efeitos da aplicação de concentrações do regulador de crescimento etil-trinexapac na altura de planta, no acamamento e na produtividade de grãos da cultivar de aveia-branca Barbarasul, em diferentes ambientes de cultivo e doses de nitrogênio. Os experimentos foram conduzidos nas safras 2010 e 2011 nos municípios de Capão do Leão e Augusto Pestana, no Estado do Rio Grande do Sul, e nas safras 2010 e 2012 no Município de Lages, no Estado de Santa Catarina. Utilizou-se o delineamento de blocos ao acaso, em arranjo fatorial 4x2x6 (dose de etil-trinexapac, estádio de desenvolvimento da planta e ambiente), com quatro repetições constituídas por parcelas úteis de 3,0 m2. Em cada ambiente, realizou-se adubação nitrogenada com 30 e 90 kg ha-1 de N. Foram avaliados os caracteres altura de planta, percentagem de acamamento e produtividade de grãos. A aplicação do regulador de crescimento etil-trinexapac nas doses de 100 a 150 g i.a. ha-1 em plantas de aveia-branca 'Barbarasul', nos estádios E31 e E32, reduz a altura das plantas e a percentagem de acamamento, sem prejuízos à produtividade de grãos. A intensidade da redução do acamamento depende das características do ambiente de cultivo.

International Business Cycles: What Are the Facts?

Modern business cycle theory involves developing models that explain stylized facts. For this strategy to be successful, these facts should be well established. In this paper, we focus on the stylized facts of international business cycles. We use the generalized method of moments and quarterly data from nineteen industrialized countries to estimate pairwise cross-country and within-country correlations of macroeconomic aggregates. We calculate standard errors of the statistics for our unique panel of data and test hypotheses about the relative sizes of these correlations. We find a lower cross-country correlation of all aggregates and especially of consumption than in previous studies. The cross-country correlations of consumption, output and Solow residuals are not significantly different from one another over the whole sample, but there are significant differences in the post-1973 subsample.

International Transmission of the Business Cycle in a Multi-Sector Model.

Multi-country models have not been very successful in replicating important features of the international transmission of business cycles. Standard models predict cross-country correlations of output and consumption which are respectively too low and too high. In this paper, we build a multi-country model of the business cycle with multiple sectors in order to analyze the role of sectoral shocks in the international transmission of the business cycle. We find that a model with multiple sectors generates a higher cross-country correlation of output than standard one-sector models, and a lower cross-country correlation of consumption. In addition, it predicts cross-country correlations of employment and investment that are closer to the data than the standard model. We also analyze the relative effects of multiple sectors, trade in intermediate goods, imperfect substitution between domestic and foreign goods, home preference, capital adjustment costs, and capital depreciation on the international transmission of the business cycle.

Inflation Targeting Under Asymmetric Preferences

This paper develops and estimates a game-theoretical model of inflation targeting where the central banker's preferences are asymmetric around the targeted rate. In particular, positive deviations from the target can be weighted more, or less, severely than negative ones in the central banker's loss function. It is shown that some of the previous results derived under the assumption of symmetry are not robust to the generalization of preferences. Estimates of the central banker's preference parameters for Canada, Sweden, and the United Kingdom are statistically different from the ones implied by the commonly used quadratic loss function. Econometric results are robust to different forecasting models for the rate of unemployment but not to the use of measures of inflation broader than the one targeted.

Termes de l'échange endogènes et cycles économiques réels : une application à la Côte-d'Ivoire

À l’aide d’un modèle de cycles réels, la présente étude vise à expliquer, de façon endogène, les fluctuations des termes de l’échange en Côte-d’Ivoire. Pour ce faire, nous cherchons principalement à répondre aux deux questions suivantes : les chocs d’offre et de demande sur le marché d’exportation suffisent-ils à expliquer les variations des termes de l’échange? Et quelle est leur importance relative dans la dynamique des termes de l’échange? Les résultats montrent que les deux chocs considérés expliquent bien la volatilité des termes de l’échange. Nous avons noté que ces deux sources d’impulsions ont un impact significatif sur les fluctuations économiques en Côte-d’Ivoire.