Joint dynamic probabilistic constraints with projected linear decision rules

We consider multistage stochastic linear optimization problems combining joint dynamic probabilistic constraints with hard constraints. We develop a method for projecting decision rules onto hard constraints of wait-and-see type. We establish the relation between the original (in nite dimensional) problem and approximating problems working with projections from di erent subclasses of decision policies. Considering the subclass of linear decision rules and a generalized linear model for the underlying stochastic process with noises that are Gaussian or truncated Gaussian, we show that the value and gradient of the objective and constraint functions of the approximating problems can be computed analytically.

Efficient algorithms for dynamic probabilistic safety assessment. An application to convex damage domain.

The design of nuclear power plant has to follow a number of regulations aimed at limiting the risks inherent in this type of installation. The goal is to prevent and to limit the consequences of any possible incident that might threaten the public or the environment. To verify that the safety requirements are met a safety assessment process is followed. Safety analysis is as key component of a safety assessment, which incorporates both probabilistic and deterministic approaches. The deterministic approach attempts to ensure that the various situations, and in particular accidents, that are considered to be plausible, have been taken into account, and that the monitoring systems and engineered safety and safeguard systems will be capable of ensuring the safety goals. On the other hand, probabilistic safety analysis tries to demonstrate that the safety requirements are met for potential accidents both within and beyond the design basis, thus identifying vulnerabilities not necessarily accessible through deterministic safety analysis alone. Probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) methodology is widely used in the nuclear industry and is especially effective in comprehensive assessment of the measures needed to prevent accidents with small probability but severe consequences. Still, the trend towards a risk informed regulation (RIR) demanded a more extended use of risk assessment techniques with a significant need to further extend PSA’s scope and quality. Here is where the theory of stimulated dynamics (TSD) intervenes, as it is the mathematical foundation of the integrated safety assessment (ISA) methodology developed by the CSN(Consejo de Seguridad Nuclear) branch of Modelling and Simulation (MOSI). Such methodology attempts to extend classical PSA including accident dynamic analysis, an assessment of the damage associated to the transients and a computation of the damage frequency. The application of this ISA methodology requires a computational framework called SCAIS (Simulation Code System for Integrated Safety Assessment). SCAIS provides accident dynamic analysis support through simulation of nuclear accident sequences and operating procedures. Furthermore, it includes probabilistic quantification of fault trees and sequences; and integration and statistic treatment of risk metrics. SCAIS comprehensively implies an intensive use of code coupling techniques to join typical thermal hydraulic analysis, severe accident and probability calculation codes. The integration of accident simulation in the risk assessment process and thus requiring the use of complex nuclear plant models is what makes it so powerful, yet at the cost of an enormous increase in complexity. As the complexity of the process is primarily focused on such accident simulation codes, the question of whether it is possible to reduce the number of required simulation arises, which will be the focus of the present work. This document presents the work done on the investigation of more efficient techniques applied to the process of risk assessment inside the mentioned ISA methodology. Therefore such techniques will have the primary goal of decreasing the number of simulation needed for an adequate estimation of the damage probability. As the methodology and tools are relatively recent, there is not much work done inside this line of investigation, making it a quite difficult but necessary task, and because of time limitations the scope of the work had to be reduced. Therefore, some assumptions were made to work in simplified scenarios best suited for an initial approximation to the problem. The following section tries to explain in detail the process followed to design and test the developed techniques. Then, the next section introduces the general concepts and formulae of the TSD theory which are at the core of the risk assessment process. Afterwards a description of the simulation framework requirements and design is given. Followed by an introduction to the developed techniques, giving full detail of its mathematical background and its procedures. Later, the test case used is described and result from the application of the techniques is shown. Finally the conclusions are presented and future lines of work are exposed.

A dynamic, probabilistic model for city building

The problem of interdependence between housing and commuting in a city has been analysed within the framework of welfare economics. Uncertain changes overtime in the working population has been considered by means of a dynamic, probabilistic model. The characteristics of irreversibility and durability in city building have been explicitly dealt with. The ultimate objective is that the model after further development will be an auxiliary tool in city planning.

Experiential knowledge of expert coaches can help identify informational constraints on performance of dynamic interceptive actions

Coordination of dynamic interceptive movements is predicated on cyclical relations between an individual's actions and information sources from the performance environment. To identify dynamic informational constraints, which are interwoven with individual and task constraints, coaches’ experiential knowledge provides a complementary source to support empirical understanding of performance in sport. In this study, 15 expert coaches from 3 sports (track and field, gymnastics and cricket) participated in a semi-structured interview process to identify potential informational constraints which they perceived to regulate action during run-up performance. Expert coaches’ experiential knowledge revealed multiple information sources which may constrain performance adaptations in such locomotor pointing tasks. In addition to the locomotor pointing target, coaches’ knowledge highlighted two other key informational constraints: vertical reference points located near the locomotor pointing target and a check mark located prior to the locomotor pointing target. This study highlights opportunities for broadening the understanding of perception and action coupling processes, and the identified information sources warrant further empirical investigation as potential constraints on athletic performance. Integration of experiential knowledge of expert coaches with theoretically driven empirical knowledge represents a promising avenue to drive future applied science research and pedagogical practice.

Metastability and emergent performance of dynamic interceptive actions

Objectives: Adaptive patterning of human movement is context specific and dependent on interacting constraints of the performer–environment relationship. Flexibility of skilled behaviour is predicated on the capacity of performers to move between different states of movement organisation to satisfy dynamic task constraints, previously demonstrated in studies of visual perception, bimanual coordination, and an interceptive combat task. Metastability is a movement system property that helps performers to remain in a state of relative coordination with their performance environments, poised between multiple co-existing states (stable and distinct movement patterns or responses). The aim of this study was to examine whether metastability could be exploited in externally paced interceptive actions in fast ball sports, such as cricket. Design: Here we report data on metastability in performance of multi-articular hitting actions by skilled junior cricket batters (n = 5). Methods: Participants’ batting actions (key movement timings and performance outcomes) were analysed in four distinct performance regions varied by ball pitching (bounce) location. Results: Results demonstrated that, at a pre-determined distance to the ball, participants were forced into a meta-stable region of performance where rich and varied patterns of functional movement behaviours emerged. Participants adapted the organisation of responses, resulting in higher levels of variability in movement timing in this performance region, without detrimental effects on the quality of interceptive performance outcomes. Conclusions: Findings provide evidence for the emergence of metastability in a dynamic interceptive action in cricket batting. Flexibility and diversity of movement responses were optimised using experiential knowledge and careful manipulation of key task constraints of the specific sport context.

Statistical inference for single- and multi-band probabilistic amplitude demodulation.

Amplitude demodulation is an ill-posed problem and so it is natural to treat it from a Bayesian viewpoint, inferring the most likely carrier and envelope under probabilistic constraints. One such treatment is Probabilistic Amplitude Demodulation (PAD), which, whilst computationally more intensive than traditional approaches, offers several advantages. Here we provide methods for estimating the uncertainty in the PAD-derived envelopes and carriers, and for learning free-parameters like the time-scale of the envelope. We show how the probabilistic approach can naturally handle noisy and missing data. Finally, we indicate how to extend the model to signals which contain multiple modulators and carriers.

A combined probabilistic framework for learning gestures and actions

In this paper we introduce a probabilistic approach to support visual supervision and gesture recognition. Task knowledge is both of geometric and visual nature and it is encoded in parametric eigenspaces. Learning processes for compute modal subspaces (eigenspaces) are the core of tracking and recognition of gestures and tasks. We describe the overall architecture of the system and detail learning processes and gesture design. Finally we show experimental results of tracking and recognition in block-world like assembling tasks and in general human gestures.

Proposing the deep dynamic Bayesian network as a future computer based medical system

The development of new learning models has been of great importance throughout recent years, with a focus on creating advances in the area of deep learning. Deep learning was first noted in 2006, and has since become a major area of research in a number of disciplines. This paper will delve into the area of deep learning to present its current limitations and provide a new idea for a fully integrated deep and dynamic probabilistic system. The new model will be applicable to a vast number of areas initially focusing on applications into medical image analysis with an overall goal of utilising this approach for prediction purposes in computer based medical systems.

Environmental Objectives, Cost Efficiency, and Multivariate Stochastic Control

This paper is concerned with the cost efficiency in achieving the Swedish national air quality objectives under uncertainty. To realize an ecologically sustainable society, the parliament has approved a set of interim and long-term pollution reduction targets. However, there are considerable quantification uncertainties on the effectiveness of the proposed pollution reduction measures. In this paper, we develop a multivariate stochastic control framework to deal with the cost efficiency problem with multiple pollutants. Based on the cost and technological data collected by several national authorities, we explore the implications of alternative probabilistic constraints. It is found that a composite probabilistic constraint induces considerably lower abatement cost than separable probabilistic restrictions. The trend is reinforced by the presence of positive correlations between reductions in the multiple pollutants.

Estratégias para a redução de ciclos da serra no problema de corte de estoque na indústria moveleira

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Disparate connectivity for structural and functional networks is revealed when physical location of the connected nodes is considered

Macroscopic brain networks have been widely described with the manifold of metrics available using graph theory. However, most analyses do not incorporate information about the physical position of network nodes. Here, we provide a multimodal macroscopic network characterization while considering the physical positions of nodes. To do so, we examined anatomical and functional macroscopic brain networks in a sample of twenty healthy subjects. Anatomical networks are obtained with a graph based tractography algorithm from diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance images (DW-MRI). Anatomical con- nections identified via DW-MRI provided probabilistic constraints for determining the connectedness of 90 dif- ferent brain areas. Functional networks are derived from temporal linear correlations between blood-oxygenation level-dependent signals derived from the same brain areas. Rentian Scaling analysis, a technique adapted from very- large-scale integration circuits analyses, shows that func- tional networks are more random and less optimized than the anatomical networks. We also provide a new metric that allows quantifying the global connectivity arrange- ments for both structural and functional networks. While the functional networks show a higher contribution of inter-hemispheric connections, the anatomical networks highest connections are identified in a dorsal?ventral arrangement. These results indicate that anatomical and functional networks present different connectivity organi- zations that can only be identified when the physical locations of the nodes are included in the analysis.

Security specification and enforcement in mediation system

Mediation techniques provide interoperability and support integrated query processing among heterogeneous databases. While such techniques help data sharing among different sources, they increase the risk for data security, such as violating access control rules. Successful protection of information by an effective access control mechanism is a basic requirement for interoperation among heterogeneous data sources. ^ This dissertation first identified the challenges in the mediation system in order to achieve both interoperability and security in the interconnected and collaborative computing environment, which includes: (1) context-awareness, (2) semantic heterogeneity, and (3) multiple security policy specification. Currently few existing approaches address all three security challenges in mediation system. This dissertation provides a modeling and architectural solution to the problem of mediation security that addresses the aforementioned security challenges. A context-aware flexible authorization framework was developed in the dissertation to deal with security challenges faced by mediation system. The authorization framework consists of two major tasks, specifying security policies and enforcing security policies. Firstly, the security policy specification provides a generic and extensible method to model the security policies with respect to the challenges posed by the mediation system. The security policies in this study are specified by 5-tuples followed by a series of authorization constraints, which are identified based on the relationship of the different security components in the mediation system. Two essential features of mediation systems, i. e., relationship among authorization components and interoperability among heterogeneous data sources, are the focus of this investigation. Secondly, this dissertation supports effective access control on mediation systems while providing uniform access for heterogeneous data sources. The dynamic security constraints are handled in the authorization phase instead of the authentication phase, thus the maintenance cost of security specification can be reduced compared with related solutions. ^

Dynamically balanced and plausible trajectory planning for human-like characters

International audience

Probabilistic models for the prediction of a ship performance in dynamic ice

We introduce two probabilistic, data-driven models that predict a ship's speed and the situations where a ship is probable to get stuck in ice based on the joint effect of ice features such as the thickness and concentration of level ice, ice ridges, rafted ice, moreover ice compression is considered. To develop the models to datasets were utilized. First, the data from the Automatic Identification System about the performance of a selected ship was used. Second, a numerical ice model HELMI, developed in the Finnish Meteorological Institute, provided information about the ice field. The relations between the ice conditions and ship movements were established using Bayesian learning algorithms. The case study presented in this paper considers a single and unassisted trip of an ice-strengthened bulk carrier between two Finnish ports in the presence of challenging ice conditions, which varied in time and space. The obtained results show good prediction power of the models. This means, on average 80% for predicting the ship's speed within specified bins, and above 90% for predicting cases where a ship may get stuck in ice. We expect this new approach to facilitate the safe and effective route selection problem for ice-covered waters where the ship performance is reflected in the objective function.

Probabilistic Imaging and Dynamic Modeling of Earthquake Source Processes

Investigation of large, destructive earthquakes is challenged by their infrequent occurrence and the remote nature of geophysical observations. This thesis sheds light on the source processes of large earthquakes from two perspectives: robust and quantitative observational constraints through Bayesian inference for earthquake source models, and physical insights on the interconnections of seismic and aseismic fault behavior from elastodynamic modeling of earthquake ruptures and aseismic processes.

To constrain the shallow deformation during megathrust events, we develop semi-analytical and numerical Bayesian approaches to explore the maximum resolution of the tsunami data, with a focus on incorporating the uncertainty in the forward modeling. These methodologies are then applied to invert for the coseismic seafloor displacement field in the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake using near-field tsunami waveforms and for the coseismic fault slip models in the 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule earthquake with complementary tsunami and geodetic observations. From posterior estimates of model parameters and their uncertainties, we are able to quantitatively constrain the near-trench profiles of seafloor displacement and fault slip. Similar characteristic patterns emerge during both events, featuring the peak of uplift near the edge of the accretionary wedge with a decay toward the trench axis, with implications for fault failure and tsunamigenic mechanisms of megathrust earthquakes.

To understand the behavior of earthquakes at the base of the seismogenic zone on continental strike-slip faults, we simulate the interactions of dynamic earthquake rupture, aseismic slip, and heterogeneity in rate-and-state fault models coupled with shear heating. Our study explains the long-standing enigma of seismic quiescence on major fault segments known to have hosted large earthquakes by deeper penetration of large earthquakes below the seismogenic zone, where mature faults have well-localized creeping extensions. This conclusion is supported by the simulated relationship between seismicity and large earthquakes as well as by observations from recent large events. We also use the modeling to connect the geodetic observables of fault locking with the behavior of seismicity in numerical models, investigating how a combination of interseismic geodetic and seismological estimates could constrain the locked-creeping transition of faults and potentially their co- and post-seismic behavior.