Economic growth in Sweden, 2000-2010 : The dot-com bubble and the financial crisis

    Economic growth is the increase in the inflation-adjusted market value of the goods and services produced by an economy over time. The total output is the quantity of goods or servicesproduced in a given time period within a country. Sweden was affected by two crises during the period 2000-2010: a dot-com bubble and a financial crisis. How did these two crises affect the economic growth?     The changes of domestic output can be separated into four parts: changes in intermediate demand, final domestic demand, export demand and import substitution. The main purpose of this article is to analyze the economic growth during the period 2000-2010, with focus on the dot-com bubble in the beginning of the period 2000-2005, and the financial crisis at the end of the period 2005-2010. The methodology to be used is the structural decomposition method.     This investigation shows that the main contributions to the Swedish total domestic output increase in both the period 2000-2005 and the period 2005-2010 were the effect of domestic demand. In the period 2005-2010, financial crisis weakened the effect of export. The output of the primary sector went from a negative change into a positive, explained mainly by strong export expansion. In the secondary sector, export had most effect in the period 2000-2005. Nevertheless, domestic demand and import ratio had more effect during the financial crisis period. Lastly, in the tertiary sector, domestic demand can mainly explain the output growth in the whole period 2000-2010.

Sequencing risk : the worst returns in their worst order

For the first of the baby boomers turning 65 years of age, after a decade littered with financial shocks (dot.com bubble, sub-prime, global financial crisis, sovereign debt), sequencing risk can represent a significant threat to their retirement nest eggs. This paper takes an outcomeoriented approach to the problem, to provide practical insights into how sequencing risk works and the critical dependency of retirement outcomes on sequencing risk. Our analysis challenges the conventional wisdom that it is the accumulated average of investment returns that matter. We show, instead, that it is the realised sequence of returns which largely determines the sustainability of retirement incomes.

Class and Performance in the Age of Global Capitalism

This article addresses the relative absence of class-based analysis in theatre and performance studies, and suggests the reconfiguration of class as performance rather than as it is traditionally conceived as an identity predicated solely on economic stratification. It engages with the occlusion of class by the ascendancy of identity politics based on race, gender and sexuality and its attendant theoretical counterparts in deconstruction and post-structuralism, which became axiomatic as they displaced earlier methodologies to become hegemonic in the arts and humanities. The article proceeds to an assessment of the development of sociological approaches to theatre, particularly the legacy of Raymond Williams and Pierre Bourdieu. The argument concludes with the application of an approach which reconfigures class as performance to the production of Declan Hughes's play Shiver of 2003, which dramatizes the consequences of the dot.com bubble of the late 1990s for ambitious members of the Irish middle class.

Management consulting Winning

A few decades ago, global management consulting was considered to be one of the most attractive industries due to its abnormal high profit margins and above-average growth rates. However, after the dot-com bubble in 2000 and the last global financial crisis, firms folded and growth rates declined sharply. In an attempt to overcome the uncertainty and information volatility, internationalization is commonly cited as a good strategy. WMC, a Portuguese SME founded in 2012, has now decided to expand its management consulting services. Therefore, a scoring model was created to assess selected European countries’ attractiveness taking into consideration macro and microeconomic data. Results show that Spain is the best option at the moment, mainly because it is where the company has the larger number of projects already developed and is more likely to leverage its network.

The certification role of venture capitalists, top underwriters and big-n auditors in ipos

Esta tese avalia o impacto dos principais atores recorrentes durante o processo de IPO, em particular, o venture capitalist, o underwriter, e o auditor, sobre as condições de comercialização das ações da empresa, capturado pelo bid-ask spread, a fração de investidores institucionais que investem na empresa, a dispersão de capital, entre outros. Além disso, este estudo também analisa alguns benefícios que os fundos de Venture Capital (VCs) fornecem às empresas que eles investem. Ele investiga o papel dos VCs em dificultar o gerenciamento de resultados em IPOs e quantifica o papel desempenhado por eles no desempenho operacional das empresas após sua oferta inicial de ações. No primeiro capítulo, os resultados indicam que as empresas inflam seus resultados principalmente nos períodos pré-IPO e do IPO. Quando nós controlamos para os quatro períodos diferentes do IPO, observamos que IPOs de empresas investidas por VCs apresentam significativamente menos gerenciamento de resultados no IPO e em períodos seguintes à orfeta inicial das ações, exatamente quando as empresas tendem a inflar mais seus lucros. Este resultado é robusto a diferentes métodos estatísticos e diferentes metodologias usadas para avaliar o gerenciamento de resultados. Além disso, ao dividir a amostra entre IPOs de empresas investidas e não investidas por VCs, observa-se que ambos os grupos apresentam gerenciamento de resultados. Ambas as subamostras apresentam níveis de gerenciamento de resultados de forma mais intensa em diferentes fases ao redor do IPO. Finalmente, observamos também que top underwriters apresentam menores níveis de gerenciamento de resultados na subamostra das empresas investidas por VCs. No segundo capítulo, verificou-se que a escolha do auditor, dos VCs, e underwriter pode indicar escolhas de longo prazo da empresa. Nós apresentamos evidências que as características do underwriter, auditor, e VC têm um impacto sobre as características das empresas e seu desempenho no mercado. Além disso, estes efeitos são persistentes por quase uma década. As empresas que têm um top underwriter e um auditor big-N no momento do IPO têm características de mercado que permanecem ao longo dos próximos 8 anos. Essas características são representadas por um número maior de analistas seguindo a empresa, uma grande dispersão da propriedade através de investidores institucionais, e maior liquidez através um bid-ask spread menor. Elas também são menos propensas a saírem do mercado, bem como mais propensas à emissão de uma orferta secundária. Finalmente, empresas investidas por VCs são positivamente afetadas, quando consideramos todas as medidas de liquidez de mercado, desde a abertura de capital até quase uma década depois. Tais efeitos não são devido ao viés de sobrevivência. Estes resultados não dependem da bolha dot-com, ou seja, os nossos resultados são qualitativamente similares, uma vez que excluímos o período da bolha de 1999-2000. No último capítulo foi evidenciado que empresas investidas por VCs incorrem em um nível mais elevado de saldo em tesouraria do que as empresas não investidas. Este efeito é persistente por pelo menos 8 anos após o IPO. Mostramos também que empresas investidas por VCs estão associadas a um nível menor de alavancagem e cobertura de juros ao longo dos primeiros oito anos após o IPO. Finalmente, não temos evidências estatisticamente significantes entre VCs e a razão dividendo lucro. Estes resultados também são robustos a diversos métodos estatísticos e diferentes metodologias.

E-commerce environment and trade promotion for Latin America: policy implications from East Asian and advanced economies' experiences

Includes bibliography

O setor de venture capital, as startups e o empreendedorismo em Israel, nos anos recentes

Some of the factors that help to explain the Israeli success case on promoting high-tech start-ups backed by venture capital funds can be found in the risk-taking culture of the country, the vast technological know-how associated with the huge military development, the high offer of human intellectual capital due to the immigration processes, and finally also the FDI inflows, mainly from the United States. Even though, these factors would not have the same effects in the economy unless the right structures were founded by the public-private sectors partnerships for the high-tech industry development and the adaptation of the investment industry surpasses two of the deepest global financial crisis: the dot-com bubble in the 2000’s and the subprime in 2008

VAR models and methods for monetary and health economics

Negli ultimi anni i modelli VAR sono diventati il principale strumento econometrico per verificare se può esistere una relazione tra le variabili e per valutare gli effetti delle politiche economiche. Questa tesi studia tre diversi approcci di identificazione a partire dai modelli VAR in forma ridotta (tra cui periodo di campionamento, set di variabili endogene, termini deterministici). Usiamo nel caso di modelli VAR il test di Causalità di Granger per verificare la capacità di una variabile di prevedere un altra, nel caso di cointegrazione usiamo modelli VECM per stimare congiuntamente i coefficienti di lungo periodo ed i coefficienti di breve periodo e nel caso di piccoli set di dati e problemi di overfitting usiamo modelli VAR bayesiani con funzioni di risposta di impulso e decomposizione della varianza, per analizzare l'effetto degli shock sulle variabili macroeconomiche. A tale scopo, gli studi empirici sono effettuati utilizzando serie storiche di dati specifici e formulando diverse ipotesi. Sono stati utilizzati tre modelli VAR: in primis per studiare le decisioni di politica monetaria e discriminare tra le varie teorie post-keynesiane sulla politica monetaria ed in particolare sulla cosiddetta "regola di solvibilità" (Brancaccio e Fontana 2013, 2015) e regola del GDP nominale in Area Euro (paper 1); secondo per estendere l'evidenza dell'ipotesi di endogeneità della moneta valutando gli effetti della cartolarizzazione delle banche sul meccanismo di trasmissione della politica monetaria negli Stati Uniti (paper 2); terzo per valutare gli effetti dell'invecchiamento sulla spesa sanitaria in Italia in termini di implicazioni di politiche economiche (paper 3). La tesi è introdotta dal capitolo 1 in cui si delinea il contesto, la motivazione e lo scopo di questa ricerca, mentre la struttura e la sintesi, così come i principali risultati, sono descritti nei rimanenti capitoli. Nel capitolo 2 sono esaminati, utilizzando un modello VAR in differenze prime con dati trimestrali della zona Euro, se le decisioni in materia di politica monetaria possono essere interpretate in termini di una "regola di politica monetaria", con specifico riferimento alla cosiddetta "nominal GDP targeting rule" (McCallum 1988 Hall e Mankiw 1994; Woodford 2012). I risultati evidenziano una relazione causale che va dallo scostamento tra i tassi di crescita del PIL nominale e PIL obiettivo alle variazioni dei tassi di interesse di mercato a tre mesi. La stessa analisi non sembra confermare l'esistenza di una relazione causale significativa inversa dalla variazione del tasso di interesse di mercato allo scostamento tra i tassi di crescita del PIL nominale e PIL obiettivo. Risultati simili sono stati ottenuti sostituendo il tasso di interesse di mercato con il tasso di interesse di rifinanziamento della BCE. Questa conferma di una sola delle due direzioni di causalità non supporta un'interpretazione della politica monetaria basata sulla nominal GDP targeting rule e dà adito a dubbi in termini più generali per l'applicabilità della regola di Taylor e tutte le regole convenzionali della politica monetaria per il caso in questione. I risultati appaiono invece essere più in linea con altri approcci possibili, come quelli basati su alcune analisi post-keynesiane e marxiste della teoria monetaria e più in particolare la cosiddetta "regola di solvibilità" (Brancaccio e Fontana 2013, 2015). Queste linee di ricerca contestano la tesi semplicistica che l'ambito della politica monetaria consiste nella stabilizzazione dell'inflazione, del PIL reale o del reddito nominale intorno ad un livello "naturale equilibrio". Piuttosto, essi suggeriscono che le banche centrali in realtà seguono uno scopo più complesso, che è il regolamento del sistema finanziario, con particolare riferimento ai rapporti tra creditori e debitori e la relativa solvibilità delle unità economiche. Il capitolo 3 analizza l’offerta di prestiti considerando l’endogeneità della moneta derivante dall'attività di cartolarizzazione delle banche nel corso del periodo 1999-2012. Anche se gran parte della letteratura indaga sulla endogenità dell'offerta di moneta, questo approccio è stato adottato raramente per indagare la endogeneità della moneta nel breve e lungo termine con uno studio degli Stati Uniti durante le due crisi principali: scoppio della bolla dot-com (1998-1999) e la crisi dei mutui sub-prime (2008-2009). In particolare, si considerano gli effetti dell'innovazione finanziaria sul canale dei prestiti utilizzando la serie dei prestiti aggiustata per la cartolarizzazione al fine di verificare se il sistema bancario americano è stimolato a ricercare fonti più economiche di finanziamento come la cartolarizzazione, in caso di politica monetaria restrittiva (Altunbas et al., 2009). L'analisi si basa sull'aggregato monetario M1 ed M2. Utilizzando modelli VECM, esaminiamo una relazione di lungo periodo tra le variabili in livello e valutiamo gli effetti dell’offerta di moneta analizzando quanto la politica monetaria influisce sulle deviazioni di breve periodo dalla relazione di lungo periodo. I risultati mostrano che la cartolarizzazione influenza l'impatto dei prestiti su M1 ed M2. Ciò implica che l'offerta di moneta è endogena confermando l'approccio strutturalista ed evidenziando che gli agenti economici sono motivati ad aumentare la cartolarizzazione per una preventiva copertura contro shock di politica monetaria. Il capitolo 4 indaga il rapporto tra spesa pro capite sanitaria, PIL pro capite, indice di vecchiaia ed aspettativa di vita in Italia nel periodo 1990-2013, utilizzando i modelli VAR bayesiani e dati annuali estratti dalla banca dati OCSE ed Eurostat. Le funzioni di risposta d'impulso e la scomposizione della varianza evidenziano una relazione positiva: dal PIL pro capite alla spesa pro capite sanitaria, dalla speranza di vita alla spesa sanitaria, e dall'indice di invecchiamento alla spesa pro capite sanitaria. L'impatto dell'invecchiamento sulla spesa sanitaria è più significativo rispetto alle altre variabili. Nel complesso, i nostri risultati suggeriscono che le disabilità strettamente connesse all'invecchiamento possono essere il driver principale della spesa sanitaria nel breve-medio periodo. Una buona gestione della sanità contribuisce a migliorare il benessere del paziente, senza aumentare la spesa sanitaria totale. Tuttavia, le politiche che migliorano lo stato di salute delle persone anziane potrebbe essere necessarie per una più bassa domanda pro capite dei servizi sanitari e sociali.

Bubble geometry and chaotic pricing behaviour

This paper is a deductive theoretical enquiry into the flow of effects from the geometry of price bubbles/busts, to price indices, to pricing behaviours of sellers and buyers, and back to price bubbles/busts. The intent of the analysis is to suggest analytical approaches to identify the presence, maturity, and/or sustainability of a price bubble. We present a pricing model to emulate market behaviour, including numeric examples and charts of the interaction of supply and demand. The model extends into dynamic market solutions myopic (single- and multi-period) backward looking rational expectations to demonstrate how buyers and sellers interact to affect supply and demand and to show how capital gain expectations can be a destabilising influence – i.e. the lagged effects of past price gains can drive the market price away from long-run market-worth. Investing based on the outputs of past price-based valuation models appear to be more of a game-of-chance than a sound investment strategy.

The organic fraction of bubble-generated, accumulation mode Sea Spray Aerosol (SSA)

Recent studies have detected a dominant accumulation mode (~100 nm) in the Sea Spray Aerosol (SSA) number distribution. There is evidence to suggest that particles in this mode are composed primarily of organics. To investigate this hypothesis we conducted experiments on NaCl, artificial SSA and natural SSA particles with a Volatility-Hygroscopicity-Tandem-Differential-Mobility-Analyser (VH-TDMA). NaCl particles were atomiser generated and a bubble generator was constructed to produce artificial and natural SSA particles. Natural seawater samples for use in the bubble generator were collected from biologically active, terrestrially-affected coastal water in Moreton Bay, Australia. Differences in the VH-TDMA-measured volatility curves of artificial and natural SSA particles were used to investigate and quantify the organic fraction of natural SSA particles. Hygroscopic Growth Factor (HGF) data, also obtained by the VH-TDMA, were used to confirm the conclusions drawn from the volatility data. Both datasets indicated that the organic fraction of our natural SSA particles evaporated in the VH-TDMA over the temperature range 170–200°C. The organic volume fraction for 71–77 nm natural SSA particles was 8±6%. Organic volume fraction did not vary significantly with varying water residence time (40 secs to 24 hrs) in the bubble generator or SSA particle diameter in the range 38–173 nm. At room temperature we measured shape- and Kelvin-corrected HGF at 90% RH of 2.46±0.02 for NaCl, 2.35±0.02 for artifical SSA and 2.26±0.02 for natural SSA particles. Overall, these results suggest that the natural accumulation mode SSA particles produced in these experiments contained only a minor organic fraction, which had little effect on hygroscopic growth. Our measurement of 8±6% is an order of magnitude below two previous measurements of the organic fraction in SSA particles of comparable sizes. We stress that our results were obtained using coastal seawater and they can’t necessarily be applied on a regional or global ocean scale. Nevertheless, considering the order of magnitude discrepancy between this and previous studies, further research with independent measurement techniques and a variety of different seawaters is required to better quantify how much organic material is present in accumulation mode SSA.

Sensitivity of Dot-ELISA on Nitrocellulose Membranes in Comparison with ELISA on Polystyrene Plates for the Detection of Four Plant Viruses

ABSTR.4CT Senitivity of dot-immunobindinding ELf SA on nitrocellulose membrane (DotELISA)was compared with double-antibody sandwich ELISA (DAS-ELlSA) on polystyrene plates for the detection of bean yellow mosaic virus (BYMV), broad bean stain virus (WMV-2). Dot-ELISA was 2 and 1O times more sensitive than DAS-ELISA for the detection of BBSV and WMV-2, respectively, whereas DAS-ELISA was more sensitive than Dot-ELiSA for {he detection of BYMV. Both techniques were equally sensitive for the detection of BYDV. Using one day instead uf the two-day procedure, the four viruses were still detectable and the ralative sensitivity of both techniques remained the same.

Bubble rise velocity and trajectory in xanthan gum crystal suspension

An experimental set-up was used to visually observe the characteristics of bubbles as they moved up a column holding xanthan gum crystal suspensions. The bubble rise characteristics in xanthan gum solutions with crystal suspension are presented in this paper. The suspensions were made by using different concentrations of xanthan gum solutions with 0.23 mm mean diameter polystyrene crystal particles. The influence of the dimensionless quantities; namely the Reynolds number, Re, the Weber number, We, and the drag co-efficient, cd, are identified for the determination of the bubble rise velocity. The effect of these dimensionless groups together with the Eötvös number, Eo, the Froude number, Fr, and the bubble deformation parameter, D, on the bubble rise velocity and bubble trajectory are analysed. The experimental results show that the average bubble velocity increases with the increase in bubble volume for xanthan gum crystal suspensions. At high We, Eo and Re, bubbles are spherical-capped and their velocities are found to be very high. At low We and Eo, the surface tension force is significant compared to the inertia force. The viscous forces were shown to have no substantial effect on the bubble rise velocity for 45 < Re < 299. The results show that the drag co-efficient decreases with the increase in bubble velocity and Re. The trajectory analysis showed that small bubbles followed a zigzag motion while larger bubbles followed a spiral motion. The smaller bubbles experienced less horizontal motion in crystal suspended xanthan gum solutions while larger bubbles exhibited a greater degree of spiral motion than those seen in the previous studies on the bubble rise in xanthan gum solutions without crystal.

Simulations of the effect of waveguide cross-section on quantum dot – plasmon coupling

Quantum dot - plasmon waveguide systems are of interest for the active control of plasmon propagation, and consequently, the development of active nanophotonic devices such as nano-sized optical transistors. This paper is concerned with how varying aspect ratio of the waveguide crosssection affects the quantum dot - plasmon coupling. We compare a stripe waveguide with an equivalent nanowire, illustrating that both waveguides have a similar coupling strength to a nearby quantum dot for small waveguide cross-section, thereby indicating that stripe lithographic waveguides have strong potential use in quantum dot –plasmon waveguide systems. We also demonstrate that changing the aspect ratio of both stripe and wire waveguides can increase the spontaneous emission rate of the quantum dot into the plasmon mode, by up to a factor of five. The results of this paper will contribute to the optimisation of quantum dot - plasmon waveguide systems and help pave the way for the development of active nanophotonics devices.

Significant Dot: The 1769 transit of Venus - a tale of astronomy, medicine and empire

This article places the 6 June 2012 transit of Venus in the context of James Cook’s voyage from England to the South Pacific to observe the 1769 transit of Venus. A description is given on how to use a computer program called Stellarium to ‘observe’ the 1769 transit of Venus exactly as Cook saw it from the island of Tahiti in the South Pacific.

Bubble extinction in Hele-Shaw flow with surface tension and kinetic undercooling regularisation

We perform an analytic and numerical study of an inviscid contracting bubble in a two-dimensional Hele-Shaw cell, where the effects of both surface tension and kinetic undercooling on the moving bubble boundary are not neglected. In contrast to expanding bubbles, in which both boundary effects regularise the ill-posedness arising from the viscous (Saffman-Taylor) instability, we show that in contracting bubbles the two boundary effects are in competition, with surface tension stabilising the boundary, and kinetic undercooling destabilising it. This competition leads to interesting bifurcation behaviour in the asymptotic shape of the bubble in the limit it approaches extinction. In this limit, the boundary may tend to become either circular, or approach a line or "slit" of zero thickness, depending on the initial condition and the value of a nondimensional surface tension parameter. We show that over a critical range of surface tension values, both these asymptotic shapes are stable. In this regime there exists a third, unstable branch of limiting self-similar bubble shapes, with an asymptotic aspect ratio (dependent on the surface tension) between zero and one. We support our asymptotic analysis with a numerical scheme that utilises the applicability of complex variable theory to Hele-Shaw flow.