Real-Time Flood Forecasting Systems In Flanders

As a highly urbanized and flood prone region, Flanders has experienced multiple floods causing significant damage in the past. In response to the floods of 1998 and 2002 the Flemish Environment Agency, responsible for managing 1 400 km of unnavigable rivers, started setting up a real time flood forecasting system in 2003. Currently the system covers almost 2 000 km of unnavigable rivers, for which flood forecasts are accessible online (www.waterinfo.be). The forecasting system comprises more than 1 000 hydrologic and 50 hydrodynamic models which are supplied with radar rainfall, rainfall forecasts and on-site observations. Forecasts for the next 2 days are generated hourly, while 10 day forecasts are generated twice a day. Additionally, twice daily simulations based on percentile rainfall forecasts (from EPS predictions) result in uncertainty bands for the latter. Subsequent flood forecasts use the most recent rainfall predictions and observed parameters at any time while uncertainty on the longer-term is taken into account. The flood forecasting system produces high resolution dynamic flood maps and graphs at about 200 river gauges and more than 3 000 forecast points. A customized emergency response system generates phone calls and text messages to a team of hydrologists initiating a pro-active response to prevent upcoming flood damage. The flood forecasting system of the Flemish Environment Agency is constantly evolving and has proven to be an indispensable tool in flood crisis management. This was clearly the case during the November 2010 floods, when the agency issued a press release 2 days in advance allowing water managers, emergency services and civilians to take measures.

Reducing The Risk Of Floods In Urban Areas With Combined Inland-River System

With the change of the water environment in accordance with climate change, the loss of lives and properties has increased due to urban flood. Although the importance of urban floods has been highlighted quickly, the construction of advancement technology of an urban drainage system combined with inland-river water and its relevant research has not been emphasized in Korea. In addition, without operation in consideration of combined inland-river water, it is difficult to prevent urban flooding effectively. This study, therefore, develops the uncertainty quantification technology of the risk-based water level and the assessment technology of a flood-risk region through a flooding analysis of the combination of inland-river. The study is also conducted to develop forecast technology of change in the water level of an urban region through the construction of very short-term/short-term flood forecast systems. This study is expected to be able to build an urban flood forecast system which makes it possible to support decision making for systematic disaster prevention which can cope actively with climate change.

Towards global drought early warning capability: expanding international cooperation for the development of a framework for global drought monitoring and forecasting

Drought is a global problem that has far-reaching impacts and especially 47 on vulnerable populations in developing regions. This paper highlights the need for a Global Drought Early Warning System (GDEWS), the elements that constitute its underlying framework (GDEWF) and the recent progress made towards its development. Many countries lack drought monitoring systems, as well as the capacity to respond via appropriate political, institutional and technological frameworks, and these have inhibited the development of integrated drought management plans or early warning systems. The GDEWS will provide a source of drought tools and products via the GDEWF for countries and regions to develop tailored drought early warning systems for their own users. A key goal of a GDEWS is to maximize the lead time for early warning, allowing drought managers and disaster coordinators more time to put mitigation measures in place to reduce the vulnerability to drought. To address this, the GDEWF will take both a top-down approach to provide global real-time drought monitoring and seasonal forecasting, and a bottom-up approach that builds upon existing national and regional systems to provide continental to global coverage. A number of challenges must be overcome, however, before a GDEWS can become a reality, including the lack of in-situ measurement networks and modest seasonal forecast skill in many regions, and the lack of infrastructure to translate data into useable information. A set of international partners, through a series of recent workshops and evolving collaborations, has made progress towards meeting these challenges and developing a global system.

The First International Workshop on Warning Criteria for Active Slides: technical issues, problems and solutions for managing early warning systems

Early warning systems (EWSs) rely on the capacity to forecast a dangerous event with a certain amount of advance by defining warning criteria on which the safety of the population will depend. Monitoring of landslides is facilitated by new technologies, decreasing prices and easier data processing. At the same time, predicting the onset of a rapid failure or the sudden transition from slow to rapid failure and subsequent collapse, and its consequences is challenging for scientists that must deal with uncertainties and have limited tools to do so. Furthermore, EWS and warning criteria are becoming more and more a subject of concern between technical experts, researchers, stakeholders and decision makers responsible for the activation, enforcement and approval of civil protection actions. EWSs imply also a sharing of responsibilities which is often averted by technical staff, managers of technical offices and governing institutions. We organized the First International Workshop on Warning Criteria for Active Slides (IWWCAS) to promote sharing and networking among members from specialized institutions and relevant experts of EWS. In this paper, we summarize the event to stimulate discussion and collaboration between organizations dealing with the complex task of managing hazard and risk related to active slides.

Reservoir Management For Flood And Drought Protection Using Infinite Horizon Model Predictive Control

Model Predictive Control (MPC) is a control method that solves in real time an optimal control problem over a finite horizon. The finiteness of the horizon is both the reason of MPC's success and its main limitation. In operational water resources management, MPC has been in fact successfully employed for controlling systems with a relatively short memory, such as canals, where the horizon length is not an issue. For reservoirs, which have generally a longer memory, MPC applications are presently limited to short term management only. Short term reservoir management can be effectively used to deal with fast process, such as floods, but it is not capable of looking sufficiently ahead to handle long term issues, such as drought. To overcome this limitation, we propose an Infinite Horizon MPC (IH-MPC) solution that is particularly suitable for reservoir management. We propose to structure the input signal by use of orthogonal basis functions, therefore reducing the optimization argument to a finite number of variables, and making the control problem solvable in a reasonable time. We applied this solution for the management of the Manantali Reservoir. Manantali is a yearly reservoir located in Mali, on the Senegal river, affecting water systems of Mali, Senegal, and Mauritania. The long term horizon offered by IH-MPC is necessary to deal with the strongly seasonal climate of the region.

Operator's manual : platoon early warning systems AN/TRS-2(V)1 (NSN 5895-01-063-8103) ... AN/TRS-2(V)6 (NSN 5895-01-068-6749).

"30 June 1980."

Early warning systems for cyber defence

Cybercriminals ramp up their efforts with sophisticated techniques while defenders gradually update their typical security measures. Attackers often have a long-term interest in their targets. Due to a number of factors such as scale, architecture and nonproductive traffic however it makes difficult to detect them using typical intrusion detection techniques. Cyber early warning systems (CEWS) aim at alerting such attempts in their nascent stages using preliminary indicators. Design and implementation of such systems involves numerous research challenges such as generic set of indicators, intelligence gathering, uncertainty reasoning and information fusion. This paper discusses such challenges and presents the reader with compelling motivation. A carefully deployed empirical analysis using a real world attack scenario and a real network traffic capture is also presented.

The scrutiny of the principle of subsidiarity by autonomous regional parliaments with particular reference to the participation of the Parliament of Catalonia in the early warning system

The purpose of this article is to offer a practical approach to the new European dimension for regional parliaments signified by the entry into force of the Treaty of Lisbon. The parliamentary scrutiny of subsidiarity by way of the early warning system has assigned a new mission to legislative assemblies with the aim of reinforcing the intervention of regions in the drafting of policies by Union institutions. In the Spanish case, the institutionalisation of this mechanism came about with Act nº 24/2009, which attributes to the Joint Committee for the European Union, in the name of the Cortes Generales [the Spanish Parliament], the function of receiving the proposals for legislative acts by the EU and transferring them to the regional parliaments in order for the latter to issue, in a brief period of four weeks, a report on compliance with the principle of subsidiarity. The majority of regional parliaments have also carried out normative reforms to regulate the procedure of participation in the early warning system.

Statistical monitoring of student performance: an early warning system

Weekly monitoring of profiles of student performances on formative and summative coursework throughout the year can be used to quickly identify those who need additional help, possibly due to acute and sudden-onset problems. Such an early-warning system can help retention, but also assist students in overcoming problems early on, thus helping them fulfil their potential in the long run. We have developed a simple approach for the automatic monitoring of student mark profiles for individual modules, which we intend to trial in the near future. Its ease of implementation means that it can be used for very large cohorts with little additional effort when marks are already collected and recorded on a spreadsheet.

Safety Profile of Trocar and Insufflation Needle Access Systems in Laparoscopic Surgery

BACKGROUND: The most common laparoscopic complications are associated with trocar insertion. The purpose of this study was to develop an objective method of evaluating the safety profile of various access devices used in laparoscopic surgery. STUDY DESIGN: In 20 swine, 6 bladed and 2 needle access devices were evaluated. A force profile was determined by measuring the force required to drive the trocar or needle through the fascia and into the peritoneum, at 0 and 10 mmHg. The amount Of tissue deformation, the length of blade exposed, and the duration of exposure were measured using a high-speed digital imaging system. RESULTS: The needle system without the sheath required the least driving force and had the most favorable force profile. In contrast, the bladed, nonretractable trocar system required a higher driving force and a rapid loss of resistance. Insertion under a pneumoperitoneum did not significantly alter the force profile of the various access devices except for the amount of tissue deformation. With the bladed system, the blade itself was exposed for an average of 0.5 to 1.0 seconds for a distance of 4.5 to 5.0 cm. In comparison, the needle system was exposed for 0.2 seconds for a distance of 1.8 cm. CONCLUSIONS: We developed a reproducible method of measuring the forces required to place the access systems, their pattern of resistance loss, and the characteristics of the blade exposure. These parameters may provide an adjunctive and objective measurement of safety, allowing for more direct comparison between various trocar designs. (J Am Coll Surg 2009;209:222-232. (C) 2009 by the American College of Surgeons)

Differential perturbation of neuronal and glial glutamate transport systems in retinal ischaemia

Glutamate is the major excitatory neurotransmitter in the retina and is removed from the extracellular space by an energy-dependent process involving neuronal and glial cell transporters. The radial glial Muller cells express the glutamate transporter, GLAST, and preferentially accumulate glutamate. However, during an ischaemic episode, extracellular glutamate concentrations may rise to excitotoxic levels. Is this catastrophic rise in extracellular glutamate due to a failure of GLAST? Using immunocytochemistry, we monitored the transport of the glutamate transporter substrate, D-aspartate, in the retina under normal and ischaemic conditions. Two models of compromised retinal perfusion were compared: (1) Anaesthetised rats had their carotid arteries occluded for 7 days to produce a chronic reduction in retinal blood flow. Retinal function was assessed by electroretinography. D-aspartate was injected into the eye for 45 min, Following euthanasia, the retina was processed for D-aspartate. GLAST and glutamate immunocytochemistry. Although reduced retinal perfusion suppresses the electroretinogram b-wave, neither retinal histology, GLAST expression, nor the ability of Muller cells to uptake D-aspartate is affected. As this insult does not appear to cause excitotoxic neuronal damage, these data suggest that GLAST function and glutamate clearance are maintained during periods of reduced retinal perfusion. (2) Occlusion of the central retinal artery for 60 min abolishes retinal perfusion, inducing histological damage and electroretinogram suppression. Although GLAST expression appears to be normal. its ability to transport D-aspartate into Muller cells is greatly reduced. Interestingly, D-aspartate is transported into neuronal cells, i.e. photoreceptors, bipolar and ganglion cells. This suggests that while GLAST is vitally important for the clearance of excess extracellular glutamate, its capability to sustain inward transport is particularly susceptible to an acute ischaemic attack. Manipulation of GLAST function could alleviate the degeneration and blindness that result from ischaemic retinal disease. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd, All rights reserved.

Over expression of AdeABC and AcrAB-TolC efflux systems confers tigecycline resistance in clinical isolates of Acinetobacter baumannii and Klebsiella pneumoniae

Abstract: INTRODUCTION: Due to the wide use of tigecycline in the treatment of severe infections caused by multidrug-resistant (MDR) bacteria, clinical resistance to tigecycline has increased in recent years. Here, we investigated the relationship between tigecycline resistance and the expression of efflux pumps. METHODS: Clinical isolates of Acinetobacter baumannii and Klebsiella pneumoniae were consecutively collected from hospitalized patients in three hospitals. The minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) of tigecycline was determined using the broth microdilution method. Expression levels of efflux pump genes and regulators were examined by quantitative real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction. The correlations between tigecycline MICs and gene expression levels were analyzed. RESULTS: Overall, 1,026 A. baumannii and 725 K. pneumoniae strains were collected. Most strains were isolated from sputum. The tigecycline resistance rate was 13.4% in A. baumannii isolates and 6.5% in K. pneumoniae isolates. Overexpression of AdeABC and AcrAB-TolC efflux systems was observed found in clinical tigecycline-resistant isolates. The tigecycline MIC had a linear relationship with the adeB expression level in A. baumannii isolates, but not with the acrB expression level in K. pneumoniae isolates. There were significant linear trends in the overexpression of ramA as the tigecycline MIC increased in K. pneumoniae isolates. CONCLUSIONS: Tigecycline resistance in A. baumannii and K. pneumoniae was strongly associated with the overexpression of efflux systems. More studies are needed to elucidate whether there are other regulators that affect the expression of adeB in A. baumannii and how ramA affects the expression of acrB in K. pneumoniae.