Case study - Herdade Vale da Rosa – The fruits of passion: The role of a positive entrepreneur vision in the success of an organization from a depressed sector and region

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

O caminho novo: o Vale Histórico da Serra da Bocaina - opulência e decadência da sub-região paraibana paulista (reintegração de um espaço geográfico 'deprimido')

A pesquisa resgata o trecho paulista do “Caminho Novo”, antiga estrada geral de São Paulo, ligação terrestre com o Rio de Janeiro, a partir do século XVIII. No chamado Vale Histórico da Serra da Bocaina, cujo relevo se apresenta muito movimentado, a cultura do café penetrou em território paulista. Esta sub-região do Vale do Paraíba tornou-se uma das mais prósperas do país. A fase posterior, de queda na produção cafeeira, transformou-a numa região “deprimida” e estagnada. Atualmente, existem esforços para, através dos diversos ramos do turismo, reativar e dinamizar esta região vale-paraibana paulista, de modo a reintegrá-la ao pujante sistema econômico de São Paulo.

DTI voxelwise analysis did not differentiate older depressed patients from older subjects without depression

Introduction: Neuroimaging has been widely used in studies to investigate depression in the elderly because it is a noninvasive technique, and it allows the detection of structural and functional brain alterations. Fractional anisotropy (FA) and mean diffusivity (MD) are neuroimaging indexes of the microstructural integrity of white matter, which are measured using diffusion tensor imaging (DTI). The aim of this study was to investigate differences in FA or MD in the entire brain without a previously determined region of interest (ROI) between depressed and non-depressed elderly patients. Method: Brain magnetic resonance imaging scans were obtained from 47 depressed elderly patients, diagnosed according to DSM-IV criteria, and 36 healthy elderly patients as controls. Voxelwise statistical analysis of FA data was performed using tract-based spatial statistics (TBSS). Results: After controlling for age, no significant differences among FA and MD parameters were observed in the depressed elderly patients. No significant correlations were found between cognitive performance and FA or MD parameters. Conclusion: There were no significant differences among FA or MD values between mildly or moderately depressed and non-depressed elderly patients when the brain was analyzed without a previously determined ROI. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Benthic respiration and physical oceanography on two contrasting continental margins in the western Indian Ocean: the Yemen-Somali upwelling region and the margin off Kenya

During the Netherlands Indian Ocean Project (NIOP, 1992-1993) sediment community oxygen consumption (SCOC) was measured on two continental margins in the Indian Ocean with different productivity: the productive upwelling region off Yemen-Somalia and the supposedly less productive Kenyan margin, which lacks upwelling. The two margins also differ in terms of river input (Kenya) and the more severe oxygen minimum in the Arabian Sea. Simultaneously with SCOC, distributions of benthic biomass and phytodetritus were studied. Our expectation was that benthic processes in the upwelling margin of the Arabian Sea would be relatively enhanced as a result of the higher productivity. On the Kenyan margin, SCOC (range 1-36 mmol/m**2/d) showed a clear decrease with increasing water depth, and little temporal variation was detected between June and December. Highest SCOC values of this study were recorded at 50 m depth off Kenya, with a maximum of 36 mmol/m**2/d in the northernmost part. On the margin off Yemen-Somalia, SCOC was on average lower and showed little downslope variation, 1.8-5.7 mmol/m**2/d, notably during upwelling, when the zone between 70 and 1700 m was covered with low O2 water (10-50 µM). After cessation of upwelling, SCOC at 60 m depth off Yemen increased from 5.7 to 17.6 mmol/m**2/d concurrently with an increase of the near-bottom O2 concentration (from 11 to 153 µM), suggesting a close coupling between SCOC and O2 concentration. This was demonstrated in shipboard cores in which the O2 concentration in the overlying water was raised after the cores were first incubated under in situ conditions (17 µM O2). This induced an immediate and pronounced increase of SCOC. Conversely, at deeper stations permanently within the oxygen minimum zone (OMZ), SCOC showed little variation between monsoon periods. Hence, organic carbon degradation in sediments on a large part of the Yemen slope appears hampered by the oxygen deficiency of the overlying water. Macrofauna biomass and the pooled biomass of smaller organisms, estimated by the nucleic acid content of the sediment, had comparable ranges in the two areas in spite of more severe suboxic conditions in the Arabian Sea. At the Kenyan shelf, benthic fauna (macro- and meiofauna) largely followed the spatial pattern of SCOC, i.e. high values on the northern shelf-upper slope and a downslope decrease. On the Yemen-Somali margin the macrofauna distribution was more erratic. Nucleic acids displayed no clear downslope trend on either margin owing to depressed values in the OMZ, perhaps because of adverse effects of low O2 on small organisms (meiofauna and microbes). Phytodetritus distributions were different on the two margins. Whereas pigment levels decreased downslope along the Kenya margin, the upper slope off Yemen (800 m) had a distinct accumulation of mainly refractory carotenoid pigments, suggesting preservation under low 02. Because the accumulations of Corg and pigments on the Yemen slope overlap only partly, we infer a selective deposition and preservation of labile particles on the upper slope, whereas refractory material undergoes further transport downslope.

Weather variability, tides, and Barmah Forest Virus Disease in the Gladstone region, Australia

In this study we examined the impact of weather variability and tides on the transmission of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease and developed a weather-based forecasting model for BFV disease in the Gladstone region, Australia. We used seasonal autoregressive integrated moving-average (SARIMA) models to determine the contribution of weather variables to BFV transmission after the time-series data of response and explanatory variables were made stationary through seasonal differencing. We obtained data on the monthly counts of BFV cases, weather variables (e.g., mean minimum and maximum temperature, total rainfall, and mean relative humidity), high and low tides, and the population size in the Gladstone region between January 1992 and December 2001 from the Queensland Department of Health, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland Department of Transport, and Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. The SARIMA model shows that the 5-month moving average of minimum temperature (β = 0.15, p-value < 0.001) was statistically significantly and positively associated with BFV disease, whereas high tide in the current month (β = −1.03, p-value = 0.04) was statistically significantly and inversely associated with it. However, no significant association was found for other variables. These results may be applied to forecast the occurrence of BFV disease and to use public health resources in BFV control and prevention.

Power law distributions in pattern dynamics of attacker-defender dyads in the team sport of Rugby Union : phenomena in a region of self-organized criticality?

In the region of self-organized criticality (SOC) interdependency between multi-agent system components exists and slight changes in near-neighbor interactions can break the balance of equally poised options leading to transitions in system order. In this region, frequency of events of differing magnitudes exhibits a power law distribution. The aim of this paper was to investigate whether a power law distribution characterized attacker-defender interactions in team sports. For this purpose we observed attacker and defender in a dyadic sub-phase of rugby union near the try line. Videogrammetry was used to capture players’ motion over time as player locations were digitized. Power laws were calculated for the rate of change of players’ relative position. Data revealed that three emergent patterns from dyadic system interactions (i.e., try; unsuccessful tackle; effective tackle) displayed a power law distribution. Results suggested that pattern forming dynamics dyads in rugby union exhibited SOC. It was concluded that rugby union dyads evolve in SOC regions suggesting that players’ decisions and actions are governed by local interactions rules.

How useful is expert opinion for predicting the distribution of a species within and beyond the region of expertise? A case study using brush-tailed rock-wallabiesPetrogale penicillata

1. Species' distribution modelling relies on adequate data sets to build reliable statistical models with high predictive ability. However, the money spent collecting empirical data might be better spent on management. A less expensive source of species' distribution information is expert opinion. This study evaluates expert knowledge and its source. In particular, we determine whether models built on expert knowledge apply over multiple regions or only within the region where the knowledge was derived. 2. The case study focuses on the distribution of the brush-tailed rock-wallaby Petrogale penicillata in eastern Australia. We brought together from two biogeographically different regions substantial and well-designed field data and knowledge from nine experts. We used a novel elicitation tool within a geographical information system to systematically collect expert opinions. The tool utilized an indirect approach to elicitation, asking experts simpler questions about observable rather than abstract quantities, with measures in place to identify uncertainty and offer feedback. Bayesian analysis was used to combine field data and expert knowledge in each region to determine: (i) how expert opinion affected models based on field data and (ii) how similar expert-informed models were within regions and across regions. 3. The elicitation tool effectively captured the experts' opinions and their uncertainties. Experts were comfortable with the map-based elicitation approach used, especially with graphical feedback. Experts tended to predict lower values of species occurrence compared with field data. 4. Across experts, consensus on effect sizes occurred for several habitat variables. Expert opinion generally influenced predictions from field data. However, south-east Queensland and north-east New South Wales experts had different opinions on the influence of elevation and geology, with these differences attributable to geological differences between these regions. 5. Synthesis and applications. When formulated as priors in Bayesian analysis, expert opinion is useful for modifying or strengthening patterns exhibited by empirical data sets that are limited in size or scope. Nevertheless, the ability of an expert to extrapolate beyond their region of knowledge may be poor. Hence there is significant merit in obtaining information from local experts when compiling species' distribution models across several regions.