The impact of a reduction in drug supply on demand for and compliance with treatment for drug dependence

Background: In early 2001, Australia experienced a sudden, dramatic and;sustained decrease in heroin availability that was accompanied by sharp increases in price and decreases in street level purity-the so-called heroin shortage. These unprecedented changes occurred in a context of widespread treatment availability, which made it possible for the first time to examine the impact of a sharp reduction in heroin supply in New South Wales (NSW) on entry to and adherence with treatment for heroin dependence. Given the evidence of drug substitution by some users. the current paper also examines the effects of the shortage on entry to treatment for other forms of drug dependence. Methods: Interrupted time-series analysis of the number of persons entering opioid pharmacotherapy and other treatment modalities in NSW for heroin dependence and for the treatment for other types of drug dependence. Findings: The heroin shortage was associated with a reduction in the number of younger persons entering opioid pharmacotherapy. There was a dramatic decrease in the number of persons entering heroin withdrawal or assessment only treatment episodes. There appear to have been small improvements in adherence to and retention in heroin treatment after the reduction in heroin supply. Relatively small increases were observed in numbers being treated for cocaine dependence. Conclusions: In the context of good treatment provision, a reduction in heroin supply appeared to produce modest improvements in intermediate outcomes. Supply and demand reduction measures, when both are implemented successfully, may be complementary. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Control methodologies: Peak reduction algorithms for DNO owned storage devices on the Low Voltage network

The Distribution Network Operators (DNOs) role is becoming more difficult as electric vehicles and electric heating penetrate the network, increasing the demand. As a result it becomes harder for the distribution networks infrastructure to remain within its operating constraints. Energy storage is a potential alternative to conventional network reinforcement such as upgrading cables and transformers. The research presented here in this paper shows that due to the volatile nature of the LV network, the control approach used for energy storage has a significant impact on performance. This paper presents and compares control methodologies for energy storage where the objective is to get the greatest possible peak demand reduction across the day from a pre-specified storage device. The results presented show the benefits and detriments of specific types of control on a storage device connected to a single phase of an LV network, using aggregated demand profiles based on real smart meter data from individual homes. The research demonstrates an important relationship between how predictable an aggregation is and the best control methodology required to achieve the objective.

Climate change impacts on portuguese energy system in 2050

Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia do Ambiente, perfil Gestão e Sistemas Ambientais

Product differentiation, competitive pressure and the effects of innovation on the success and survivability of firms in oligopoly markets

In a recent paper Tishler and Milstein (2009) fi…nd that increased competition may increase aggregate R&D spending while market output decreases. Therefore, they obtain the surprising result that R&D spending is excessive when competition becomes intense. Their result is based on the standard linear demand function for differentiated products introduced by Bowley (1924) where decreased product differentiation is interpreted as more competitive pressure. In this paper I show that at an aggregate level this interpretation is problematic because equilibrium effects are dominated by a demand reduction effect. A slight modifi…cation of the standard demand function eliminates this effect. For the Tishler and Milstein (2009) setting it is shown that then increased competition increases both R&D spending and aggregate market output. Therefore, at least for consumers, more intense competition increases welfare. Journal of Economic Literature Classi…fication Numbers: D43, L1, O3. Keywords: Oligopoly markets, Product differentiation, Competitive pressure.

Avaliação (em escala laboratorial) da aplicação do processo eletrolítico em efluente de lagoa de estabilização de esgoto urbano

Physico-chemical and microbiological parameters were evaluated before and after applying an electrolytic process to effluents of a stabilization lagoon, in the presence or absence of "salt". Chlorine generation and bactericidal properties of the treatments were studied following two experiments. Effluent pH increased with electrolysis time. In the absence of "salt", 20 min electrolysis resulted in a COD (Chemical Oxygen Demand) reduction of 44%, along with ca. 99.9% (3 log10 cfu/mL) reduction in total coliforms, heterotrophic bacteria and Escherichia coli. These results indicated that the electrolytic process is a promising complementary technology to improve effluent quality for stabilization lagoons.

A new error measure for forecasts of household-level, high resolution electrical energy consumption

As low carbon technologies become more pervasive, distribution network operators are looking to support the expected changes in the demands on the low voltage networks through the smarter control of storage devices. Accurate forecasts of demand at the single household-level, or of small aggregations of households, can improve the peak demand reduction brought about through such devices by helping to plan the appropriate charging and discharging cycles. However, before such methods can be developed, validation measures are required which can assess the accuracy and usefulness of forecasts of volatile and noisy household-level demand. In this paper we introduce a new forecast verification error measure that reduces the so called “double penalty” effect, incurred by forecasts whose features are displaced in space or time, compared to traditional point-wise metrics, such as Mean Absolute Error and p-norms in general. The measure that we propose is based on finding a restricted permutation of the original forecast that minimises the point wise error, according to a given metric. We illustrate the advantages of our error measure using half-hourly domestic household electrical energy usage data recorded by smart meters and discuss the effect of the permutation restriction.

Greenhouse gas emission scenario modeling for cities using the PURGE model

Cities globally are in the midst of taking action to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. After the vital step of emissions quantification, strategies must be developed to detail how emissions reductions targets will be achieved. The Pathways to Urban Reductions in Greenhouse Gas Emissions (PURGE) model allows the estimation of emissions from four pertinent urban sectors: electricity generation, buildings, private transportation, and waste. Additionally, the carbon storage from urban and regional forests is modeled. An emissions scenario is examined for a case study of the greater Toronto, Ontario, Canada, area using data on current technology stocks and government projections for stock change. The scenario presented suggests that even with some aggressive targets for technological adoption (especially in the transportation sector), it will be difficult to achieve the less ambitious 2050 emissions reduction goals of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This is largely attributable to the long life of the building stock and limitations of current retrofit practices. Additionally, demand reduction (through transportation mode shifting and building occupant behavior) will be an important component of future emissions cuts.

Disrupting the market for illegal rhino horn and ivory

This paper considers methods for regulating the trafficking of rhino horn and ivory, seen through the lens of compliance theories. It stresses the importance of the distinction between normative and instrumental motivations. It argues for a balanced set of strategies that include normative levers designed to change the behaviour of poachers, traffickers and consumers of these products. In particular it considers the options needed to achieve demand reduction in consumer countries, and those needed to provide incentives to local communities in producer countries to disengage from poaching.

Potencial de redução na demanda por energia elétrica no Rio de Janeiro através do modelo de preço variável

A energia elétrica é fundamental para o desenvolvimento de qualquer país e o Brasil atravessa atualmente uma crise energética devido ao baixo nível de seus reservatórios, então diversos temas sobre o sistema elétrico brasileiro vêm à tona a fim de dar mais confiabilidade e evitar futuros racionamentos, permitindo assim que a escassez de energia não seja um impeditivo para o crescimento econômico do país. O presente estudo calcula o potencial de redução de demanda por energia elétrica no estado do Rio de Janeiro através do modelo de preço variável, que consiste em ter tarifas distintas para o horário de ponta e fora de ponta. Este é um entre diversos programas de eficiência energética existentes no mundo atualmente. Para tal cálculo as principais premissas são a projeção de demanda máxima coincidente, o número de consumidores por classe e a elasticidade preço da demanda por energia elétrica. A partir dai são sugeridos três cenários de penetração de AMI (Advanced Metering infrastructure), e três cenários de variação de preço, chegando assim a nove resultados possíveis.

Avaliação (em escala laboratorial) da aplicação do processo eletrolítico em efluente de lagoa de estabilização de esgoto urbano

Physico-chemical and microbiological parameters were evaluated before and after applying an electrolytic process to effluents of a stabilization lagoon, in the presence or absence of salt. Chlorine generation and bactericidal properties of the treatments were studied following two experiments. Effluent pH increased with electrolysis time. In the absence of salt, 20 min electrolysis resulted in a COD (Chemical Oxygen Demand) reduction of 44%, along with ca. 99.9% (3 log10 cfu/mL) reduction in total coliforms, heterotrophic bacteria and Escherichia coli. These results indicated that the electrolytic process is a promising complementary technology to improve effluent quality for stabilization lagoons.

Comportamento cinético do cloro livre em meio aquoso e formação de subprodutos da desinfecção

One indirect approach to predict the disinfection by-product (DBP) formation potential for a given water source is by evaluation of the kinetic behavior of free chlorine in the liquid phase and chlorine demand determination for different operation conditions of the chlorination process. The objective of this work was to evaluate the kinetic behavior of free chlorine in water or a number of different raw water sources, as well as to investigate the impact of the coagulation process on chlorine demand reduction and DBP formation. It was observed that the higher the total organic carbon (TOC) removal efficiency through coagulation, the lower the liquid phase chlorine demand. Regarding trihalomethane (THM) formation, a ratio of 28 ug/L formed per mg/L of applied chlorine was observed for the waters employed in the experimental investigation.

Integral energy behaviour of photovoltaic semi-transparent glazing elements for building integration

La hipótesis general que esta tesis quiere demostrar es que la integración arquitectónica de sistemas fotovoltaicos semitransparentes (STPV) puede contribuir a mejorar la eficiencia energética de los edificios. Por lo tanto, la investigación se centra en el desarrollo de una metodología capaz de cuantificar la reducción de la demanda energética del edificio proporcionada por estas novedosas soluciones constructivas. Al mismo tiempo, los parámetros de diseño de las soluciones STPV se han analizado para establecer cuales presentan el mayor impacto sobre el balance energético global del edificio y por lo tanto tienen que ser cuidadosamente definidos a la hora de optimizar el comportamiento energético del mismo. A la luz de estos objetivos, la metodología de estudio se ha centrado en tres puntos principales:  Caracterizar el comportamiento energético global de sistemas STPV en condiciones de operación realistas, similares a las que se darían en un sistema real;  Caracterizar el comportamiento energético global de sistemas STPV en condiciones controladas, con el objetivo de estudiar la variación del comportamiento del los elementos en función de parámetro de diseño y operación;  Evaluar el potencial de ahorro energético global de los sistemas STPV en comparación con soluciones acristaladas convencionales al variar de las condiciones de contorno constituidas por los parámetros de diseño (como el grado de transparencia), las características arquitectónicas (como el ratio entre superficie acristalada y superficie opaca en la fachada del edificio) y las condiciones climáticas (cubriendo en particular la climatología europea). En síntesis, este trabajo intenta contribuir a comprender la interacción que existe entre los sistemas STPV y el edificio, proporcionando tanto a los fabricantes de los componentes como a los profesionales de la construcción información valiosa sobre el potencial de ahorro energético asociado a estos nuevos sistemas constructivos. Asimismo el estudio define los parámetros de diseño adecuados para lograr soluciones eficientes tanto en proyectos nuevos como de rehabilitación. ABSTRACT The general hypothesis this work seeks to demonstrate is that the architectural integration of Semi-Transparent Photovoltaic (STPV) systems can contribute to improving the energy efficiency of buildings. Accordingly, the research has focused on developing a methodology able to quantify the building energy demand reduction provided by these novel constructive solutions. At the same time, the design parameters of the STPV solution have been analysed to establish which of them have the greatest impact on the global energy balance of the building, and therefore which have to be carefully defined in order to optimize the building operation. In the light of these goals, the study methodology has focused on three main points:  To characterise the global energy behaviour of STPV systems in realistic operating conditions, similar to those in which a real system will operate;  To characterise the global energy behaviour of STPV systems in controlled conditions in order to study how the performance varies depending on the design and operating parameters;  To assess the global energy saving potential of STPV systems in comparison with conventional glazing solutions by varying the boundary conditions, including design parameters (such as the degree of transparency), architectural characteristics (such as the Window to Wall Ratio) and climatic conditions (covering the European climatic conditions). In summary, this work has sought to contribute to the understanding of the interaction between STPV systems and the building, providing both components manufacturers and construction technicians, valuable information on the energy savings potential of these new construction systems and defining the appropriate design parameters to achieve efficient solutions in both new and retrofitting projects.

A Game of Horns: Transnational Flows of Rhino Horn

A multi-sectorial regime of protection including international treaties, conservation and security measures, demand reduction campaigns and quasi-military interventions has been established to protect rhinos. Despite these efforts, the poaching of rhinos and trafficking of rhino horn continue unabated. This dissertation asks why the illegal market in rhinoceros horn is so resilient in spite of the myriad measures employed to disrupt it. A theoretical approach grounded in the sociology of markets is applied to explain the structure and functioning of the illegal market. The project follows flows of rhino horn from the source in southern Africa to illegal markets in Southeast Asia. The multi-sited ethnography included participant observations, interviews and focus groups with 416 informants during fourteen months of fieldwork. The sample comprised of, amongst others, convicted and active rhino poachers, smugglers and kingpins, private rhino breeders and hunting outfitters, African and Asian law enforcement officials, as well as affected local communities and Asian consumers. Court files, CITES trade data, archival materials, newspaper reports and social media posts were also analysed to supplement findings and to verify and triangulate data from interviews, focus groups and observations. Central to the analysis is the concept of “contested illegality”, a legitimization mechanism employed by market participants along the different segments of the horn supply chain. These actors' implicit or explicit contestation of the state-sponsored label of illegality serves as a legitimising and enabling mechanism, facilitating participation in gray or illegal markets for rhino horn. The research identified fluid interfaces between legal, illegal and gray markets, with recurring actors who have access to transnational trade structures, and who also possess market and product knowledge, as well as information about the regulatory regime and its loopholes. It is against the background of colonial, apartheid and neoliberal exploitation and marginalization of local communities that a second argument is introduced: the path dependency of conservation paradigms. Underpinning rhino conservation and regulation are archaic and elitist conservation regimes that discount the potential for harmonious relationships between local communities and wildlife. The increasing militarization of anti-poaching measures and green land grabs are exacerbating the rhino problem by alienating communities further from conservation areas and wild animals. The third argument looks at how actors deal with coordination problems in transnational illegal markets. Resolving the coordination problems of cooperation, value and competition are considered essential to the operation of formal markets. It is argued that the problem of security provides an additional and crucial obstacle to actors transacting in markets. The systematic analysis of flows between the researched sites of production, distribution and consumption of rhino horn shows that the social embeddedness of actors facilitates the flourishing of illegal markets in ways that escape an effective enforcement of CITES regulations.

Essays in Market Design

In this dissertation, I study three problems in market design: the allocation of resources to schools using deferred acceptance algorithms, the demand reduction of employees on centralized labor markets, and the alleviation of traffic congestion. I show how institutional and behavioral considerations specific to each problem can alleviate several practical limitations faced by current solutions. For the case of traffic congestion, I show experimentally that the proposed solution is effective. In Chapter 1, I investigate how school districts could assign resources to schools when it is desirable to provide stable assignments. An assignment is stable if there is no student currently assigned to a school that would prefer to be assigned to a different school that would admit him if it had the resources. Current assignment algorithms assume resources are fixed. I show how simple modifications to these algorithms produce stable allocations of resources and students to schools. In Chapter 2, I show how the negotiation of salaries within centralized labor markets using deferred acceptance algorithms eliminates the incentives of the hiring firms to strategically reduce their demand. It is well-known that it is impossible to eliminate these incentives for the hiring firms in markets without negotiation of salaries. Chapter 3 investigates how to achieve an efficient distribution of traffic congestion on a road network. Traffic congestion is the product of an externality: drivers do not consider the cost they impose on other drivers by entering a road. In theory, Pigouvian prices would solve the problem. In practice, however, these prices face two important limitations: i) the information required to calculate these prices is unavailable to policy makers and ii) these prices would effectively be new taxes that would transfer resources from the public to the government. I show how to construct congestion prices that retrieve the required information from the drivers and do not transfer resources to the government. I circumvent the limitations of Pigouvian prices by assuming that individuals make some mistakes when selecting routes and have a tendency towards truth-telling. Both assumptions are very robust observations in experimental economics.

Il modello Positive Energy Districts. Approcci innovativi e strumenti operativi per la transizione verso città clima-neutrali

Ad oggi le città europee si configurano come i principali centri di cultura, innovazione e sviluppo economico. Tuttavia, ospitando circa il 75% della popolazione e consumando quasi l’80% dell’energia prodotta, a causa delle significative emissioni di gas serra esse contribuiscono in modo rilevante ai cambiamenti climatici e, allo stesso tempo, ne subiscono gli effetti più intensi. La Comunità Europea ha preso atto della necessità di intraprendere un’azione sinergica che adotti strategie di mitigazione climatica e preveda misure di adattamento per far fronte agli impatti climatici ormai inevitabili. L'orientamento dei Programmi europei di Ricerca e Innovazione sul tema delle città smart e clima-neutrali sposta l'attenzione dalla dimensione urbana verso la scala di distretto. In questa prospettiva, i Positive Energy Districts (PEDs) si configurano come distretti di nuova edificazione, ma anche come soluzioni ambiziose per la riqualificazione di quartieri esistenti che gestiscono in modo attivo il fabbisogno energetico con un bilancio nullo di emissioni e un surplus di energia prodotta da rinnovabili. La ricerca di dottorato focalizza l’indagine sul modello PEDs esplorandone il potenziale di applicabilità nel contesto urbano consolidato. Nello specifico, la tesi lavora allo sviluppo di due contributi di ricerca originali: il PED-Portfolio e il PED-Toolkit. Tali contributi propongono un approccio sistemico, attraverso il quale intraprendere un percorso di conoscenza e sperimentazione del modello PEDs in una prospettiva di riduzione del fabbisogno energetico, ma anche in un’ottica di migliore accessibilità, vivibilità e resilienza di questi distretti. Al fine di verificare l’applicabilità dei risultati della ricerca, gli strumenti sviluppati vengono testati su un’area pilota e gli esiti di tale sperimentazione sono poi messi a confronto con il quadro dello stato dell’arte e con le principali linee di ricerca internazionali sul tema PEDs, affinando gli esiti del progetto di dottorato in un processo di ricerca-sperimentazione-ricerca.