Como se equilibra o orçamento do governo no Brasil?: aumento de receitas ou corte de gastos?

Em teoria econômica costuma-se analisar o comportamento de longo prazo de um agente supondo que o mesmo está sujeito a um determinado tipo de restrição intertemporal. A restrição orçamentária intertemporal do governo revela que um aumento nos gastos públicos, não acompanhado de um aumento nos impostos, deve futuramente ou ser reduzido ou ser seguido por um aumento futuro de impostos. Além disso, este último, somado às reduções futuras nos gastos do governo, deve ser igual ao choque inicial em valor presente. Usando a restrição intertemporal de recursos do governo, e técnicas da literatura de raiz unitária e cointegração, testa-se o equilíbrio de longo prazo das finanças públicas no Brasil de 1947 a 1992 e estima-se qual o mecanismo mais frequente usado pelo governo Brasileiro para restaurá-lo, dado um choque de receita ou de gasto. A principal conclusão do estudo é que a maior parcela dos déficits públicos no Brasil é eliminada, independentemente da sua fonte geradora. por aumentos futuros nos impostos. Ademais, mostra-se que a senhoriagem vem sendo usada sistematicamente para garantir o equilíbrio orçamentário de longo prazo, o que explica a alta taxa de inflação que vigorou nesse período no Brasil.

Equilíbrio orçamentário através de aumentos nos impostos ou reduções nos gastos públicos: o caso brasileiro

Na teoria econômica costuma-se analisar comportamento de longo prazo de um agente supondo que mesmo está sujeito um determinado tipo de restrição de recursos intertemporal. equação de restrição orçamentária intertemporal do governo nos diz que um aumento nos gastos públicos não acompanhado de um aumento na receita do governo), deve futuramente ou ser reduzido ou ser seguido por um aumento de receitas. Além disso, aumento futuro nas receitas somado as reduções futuras nos gastos do governo deve ser igual ao choque inicial em termos de valor presente. No curto prazo governo tem interesse em se desviar da sua posição de equilíbrio de longo prazo.Causas políticas institucionais são úteis para explicar tal desvio como por exemplo: redistribuição intergeracional, ilusão fiscal, papel estratégico da dívida pública, conflito distribucional, etc. Um modelo teórico de análise de impulso resposta usado para descobrir qual mecanismo usado pelo governo brasileiro para alcançar equilíbrio orçamentário de longo prazo. principal conclusão do estudo que maior parcela dos déficits públicos no Brasil eliminada, independentemente da sua fonte geradora, por aumentos futuros nos impostos. Também foi discutido que imposto inflacionário vem sendo usado para garantir equilíbrio orçamentário de longo prazo. Com base nesses resultados, mudanças políticas institucionais são propostas, tais como: criação de leis que restringem tamanho da razão déficit-PIB como também criação de um banco central independente.

Turno de trabalho, cronotipo e desempenho de memória e atenção de profissionais da área da saúde de dois serviços de emergência da cidade de Porto Alegre/RS/BRASIL

Trabalhadores forçados a alterar o ciclo sono/repouso em função do turno de trabalho tendem a dessincronizar seus ritmos fisiológicos (endógenos) em relação aos do meio ambiente (exógenos) acarretando transtornos na organização dos sistemas fisiológicos. Os objetivos deste estudo foram avaliar a relação do turno de trabalho (manhã, noite e rotativo) e perfil cronobiológico e seus efeitos sobre desempenho em testes de atenção e memória de profissionais (médicos, enfermeiros e técnicos/auxiliares de enfermagem) dos serviços de emergência de dois hospitais de Porto Alegre (RS/Brasil). Uma amostra aleatória de 140 profissionais, de ambos os sexos e idade entre 25 e 60 anos, foi avaliada num estudo transversal. Os sujeitos que relataram presença de doença (clínica, neurológica ou psiquiátrica), transtornos do sono prévios ao emprego atual, e uso de benzodiazepínicos nas 6 horas anteriores à testagem foram excluídos. Padrão cronobiológico (matutinidade/vespertinidade) foi definido pelo questionário de Hidalgo-Chaves (2002). Os testes de atenção e memória foram span de dígitos, span palavras, stroop, memória lógica, e Wisconsin Card Sorting Test (versão computadorizada). Déficit de atenção foi definido pela combinação de testes positivos (50%+1). Não se observou associação significativa entre cronotipo e turnos de trabalho. A freqüência de desempenho abaixo do ponto de corte em diversos testes foi maior no turno da noite. Déficit de atenção/memória foi observado em 51% dos profissionais do turno da noite, 21% do turno da manhã, e 22% do rotativo. O desempenho nos testes de atenção/memória entre os sujeitos distribuídos por cronotipo (tanto no total, como entre coincidentes com o turno de trabalho) não mostrou diferença estatisticamente significativa. Em conclusão, a discordância entre turno de trabalho e cronotipo pode ser explicada por diferentes motivos como a falta de opção para escolher o turno, questões financeiras, e desconhecimento quanto às características relacionadas ao perfil cronobiológico. Os déficits observados podem expressar efeitos de longo prazo do trabalho em turnos e especialmente no noturno.

Relações internacionais: o comércio exterior do Brasil e Rio Grande do Norte no período de 1999 a 2008

The period post-war promoted several changes in relations economic, political and social world. Since then, a new division international of labor has delineated, with the great growth of Asian countries. In the field of international relations, the world still appears to transition is not completed because the old institutions were not replaced by new ones and the power of the United States as a major capitalist country remains unshaken, even with the emergence and strengthening of new economic global blocs. With globalization, Brazil emerges with more intensity in the face of new issues global, although its share in transactions trade global hasn‟t changed accordingly. In this sense, the objective of this dissertation is to examine, in a descriptive and critical the development of international relations and trade of Brazil and Rio Grande do Norte with the main blocs in the world from 1999 to 2008. As a secondary objective: to identify the assumptions theoretical that underpinned the decisions governments of the FHC and Lula, in particular, the interference of these terms in international relations and foreign trade. Adopted as the procedure methodological the literature review of the subject, as well as collection and processing of the data of foreign trade. During the Cardoso government has undergone the substantial growth in imports, as part of the economic policy of anti-inflationary, generating large deficits trade. From the first to the second term, with the inflection of exchange rate policy the country has resumed surpluses trade. The choice of government of the autonomy participation increased the relative share of the traditional blocks in total foreign trade and reduced the share of MERCOSUL. In the Lula government, there is the maintenance of some elements of the economic policy of the previous government and the partial shift in the conduct of foreign policy, with the option of autonomy through diversification, raising its stake on the blocks and other emerging countries in total foreign trade Brazilian and reducing the contribution of the traditional blocks such as NAFTA and the European Union. A trend observed in the previous government and deepened in the Lula government was the growth in commodity exports and the decline of manufactured products, confirming the model of conservative insertion of Brazilian exports. The Rio Grande do Norte followed the trend Brazilian in the growth of foreign trade, including in participating conservative, given that the products exported by the state are basically coming from horticulture irrigated and agribusiness. However, in the aspect of destination export, the state followed trajectory distinct from that in the Lula government, with the deepening of trade relations with traditional blocks, especially with the European Union and NAFTA

Caminhos para a universalização dos serviços de água e esgotos no Brasil: a atuação das entidades reguladoras para indução da eficiência dos prestadores de serviços

The deficit of water and sewerage services is a historic problem in Brazil. The introduction of a new regulatory framework, in 2007, presented ways intending to overcome these deficits, among them, the providers efficiency improvement. This thesis aims to analyze the regulators performance regarding its ability to induce the efficiency of the Brazilian water and sewerage services providers. To this end, an analytical approach based on a sequential explanatory strategy was used, and it consists of three steps. In the first step, the Data Envelopment Analysis ( DEA ) was used to measure the providers efficiency in 2006 and 2011. The results show that the average efficiency may be considered high; however significant inefficiencies among the 29 analyzed providers were detected. The ones in the Southeast region showed better performance level and Northeast had the lowest. The local and the private providers were more efficient on average. In 2006 and 2011 the average performance was higher among non-regulated providers. In 2006 the group regulated by local agencies had the best average performance, in 2011, the best performance was the group regulated by the consortium agencies. To analyse the second step was used the Malmquist Index, it pointed that the productivity between 2006 and 2011 dropped. The analysis through decomposing Malmquist Index showed a shift of technical efficiency frontier to a lower level, however was detected a small provider s advance towards the frontier. Only the Midwest region recorded progress in overall productivity. The deterioration in the total factor productivity was higher among regional providers but the local ones and the private agencies moved quickly to the frontier level. The providers regulated from 2007 showed less decrease on the total productivity and the results of the catch up effect were more meaningful. In the last step, the regulators standardization activity analyses noted that there are agencies that had not issued rules until 2011. The most standards topics discussed in the issued rules were the tariff adjustments and the setting of general conditions for the provision and use of services; in another hand, the least covered topics were new technologies incentive and the introduction of efficiency-inducing regulatory mechanisms and productivity gains for price reviews. Regulators created from 2007 were more active proportionately. Even with the advent of the regulatory framework and the creation of new regulatory bodies, the evidence points to a reality in which the actions of these agencies have not been ensuring that providers of water and sewage, regulated by them, has achieved better performance. The non- achievement of regulatory goals can be explained by the incipient level of performance of the Brazilian regulatory authorities, which should be strengthened because of its potential contribution to the Brazilian basic sanitation department

Teste para existência de dominância fiscal no Brasil entre 2011 e 2015

Dissertação (mestrado)—Universidade de Brasília, Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade, Departamento de Economia, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Economia, 2016.

Is there a difference between narrowing of the spinal canal and neurological deficits comparing Denis and Magerl classifications?

We have read with great interest the retrospective study by Caffaro and Avanzi1 evaluating the relation between narrowing of the spinal canal and neurological deficits in patients with burst-type fractures of the spine. The authors are to be commended for obtaining detailed neurological and radiological data in a large cohort of 227 patients. The authors conclude: “The percentage of narrowing of the spinal canal proved to be a pre-disposing factor for the severity of the neurological status in thoracolumbar and lumbar burst-type fractures according to the classifications of Denis and Magerl.” Although this conclusion is mainly in accordance with previous findings, we would like to comment on the methodological approach applied in the current study.

Chronological age and age-related cognitive deficits are associated with an increase in multiple types of driving errors in late life

Objective: Older driver research has mostly focused on identifying that small proportion of older drivers who are unsafe. Little is known about how normal cognitive changes in aging affect driving in the wider population of adults who drive regularly. We evaluated the association of cognitive function and age, with driving errors. Method: A sample of 266 drivers aged 70 to 88 years were assessed on abilities that decline in normal aging (visual attention, processing speed, inhibition, reaction time, task switching) and the UFOV® which is a validated screening instrument for older drivers. Participants completed an on-road driving test. Generalized linear models were used to estimate the associations of cognitive factor with specific driving errors and number of errors in self-directed and instructor navigated conditions. Results: All errors types increased with chronological age. Reaction time was not associated with driving errors in multivariate analyses. A cognitive factor measuring Speeded Selective Attention and Switching was uniquely associated with the most errors types. The UFOV predicted blindspot errors and errors on dual carriageways. After adjusting for age, education and gender the cognitive factors explained 7% of variance in the total number of errors in the instructor navigated condition and 4% of variance in the self-navigated condition. Conclusion: We conclude that among older drivers errors increase with age and are associated with speeded selective attention particularly when that requires attending to the stimuli in the periphery of the visual field, task switching, errors inhibiting responses and visual discrimination. These abilities should be the target of cognitive training.

Are motivational deficits part of the behavioural phenotype of Down syndrome?

Motivational deficits are generally accepted to be part of the behavioural phenotype associated with Down syndrome (DS). A motivational profile comprising low or inconsistent levels of task persistence, avoidance of challenging activities and over-dependence on adult direction has been described. However, comparisons are usually made between children with DS and those who are developing typically, without the inclusion of samples with intellectual disability (ID) from aetiologies other than DS. Such comparisons are needed to determine the extent to which motivational deficits are specific to DS, as opposed to being a feature of ID generally. Methods: The current study collected data about the personality-motivation profiles of children in three groups matched for mental age. They consisted of 80 typically developing (TD)3–7 year old children, 62 children with DS aged 7–15 years, and 54 children with moderate ID aged 7–15 years. Parents completed the 37-item EZ-Personality Questionnaire (EZPQ; Zigler et al., 2002), a measure of personality-motivational functioning. Results: There were significant differences between TD children and those with ID on all EZPQ scales. In most respects children with DS did not differ significantly from others with moderate ID, although they were rated as having greater expectancy of success and fewer negative reactions. Conclusion: The finding that children with DS are less motivated than TD children of the same mental age is consistent with previous studies in which parents have rated motivation. It seems, however, that motivation difficulties are associated with ID more generally, rather than being specific to those with DS. The study raises questions about phenotypic versus experiential effects on motivation for children with ID.

Bicep femoris voluntary activation deficits contribute to eccentric knee flexor weakness following intermittent running

INTRODUCTION: Hamstring strain injuries (HSI) are the predominant non-contact injury in many sports. Eccentric hamstring muscle weakness following intermittent running has been implicated within the aetiology of HSI. This weakness following intermittent running is often greater eccentrically than concentrically, however the cause of this unique, contraction mode specific phenomenon is unknown. AIM: To determine if this preferential eccentric decline in strength is caused by declines in voluntary hamstring muscle activation. METHODS: Fifteen recreationally active males completed 18 × 20m overground sprints. Maximal strength (concentric and eccentric knee flexor and concentric knee extensor) was determined isokinetically at the velocities of ±1800.s-1 and ±600.s- while hamstring muscle activation was assessed using surface electromyography, before and 15 minutes after the running protocol. RESULTS: Overground intermittent running caused greater eccentric (27.2 Nm; 95% CI = 11.2 to 43.3; p=0.0001) than concentric knee flexor weakness (9.3 Nm; 95% CI = -6.7 to 25.3; P=0.6361). Following the overground running, voluntary activation levels of the lateral hamstrings showed a significant decline (0.08%; 95% CI = 0.045 to 0.120; P<0.0001). In comparison, medial hamstring activation showed no change following intermittent running. CONCLUSION: Eccentric hamstring strength is decreased significantly following intermittent overground running. Voluntary activation deficits in the biceps femoris muscle are responsible for some portion of this weakness. The implications of this finding are significant because the biceps femoris muscle is the most frequently strained of all the hamstring muscles and because fatigue appears to play an important part in injury occurrence.

Do voluntary activation deficits contribute to eccentric weakness following intermittent running?

Hamstring strain injuries (HSI) are the predominant non-contact injury in many sports. Eccentric hamstring muscle weakness following intermittent running has been implicated within the aetiology of HSI. This weakness following intermittent running is often greater eccentrically than concentrically, however the cause of this unique, contraction mode specific phenomenon is unknown. PURPOSE: To determine if this preferential eccentric decline in strength is caused by declines in voluntary hamstring muscle activation. METHODS: Fifteen recreationally active males completed 18 × 20m overground sprints. Maximal strength (concentric and eccentric knee flexor and concentric knee extensor) was determined isokinetically at the velocities of ±1800.s-1 and ±600.s- while hamstring muscle activation was assessed using surface electromyography, before and 15 minutes after the running protocol. RESULTS: Overground intermittent running caused greater eccentric (27.2 Nm; 95% CI = 11.2 to 43.3; p=0.0001) than concentric knee flexor weakness (9.3 Nm; 95% CI = -6.7 to 25.3; P=0.6361). Following the overground running, voluntary activation levels of the lateral hamstrings showed a significant decline (0.08%; 95% CI = 0.045 to 0.120; P<0.0001). In comparison, medial hamstring activation showed an increased level of activation following intermittent running (0.12%; 95% CI = 0.049 to 0.030; P = 0.0102). CONCLUSION: Eccentric hamstring strength is decreased significantly following intermittent overground running. Voluntary activation deficits in the biceps femoris muscle are responsible for some portion of this weakness. The implications of this finding are significant because the biceps femoris muscle is the most frequently strained of all the hamstring muscles and because fatigue appears to play an important part in injury occurrence.

Knee flexor strength and biceps femoris activation deficits following hamstring strain injury

Background: Hamstring strain injuries (HSI) are prevalent in sport and re-injury rates have been high for many years. Maladaptation following HSI are implicated in injury recurrence however nervous system function following HSI has received little attention. Aim: To determine if recreational athletes with a history of unilateral HSI, who have returned to training and competition, will exhibit lower levels of voluntary activation (VA) and median power frequency (MPF) in the previously injured limb compared to the uninjured limb at long muscle lengths. Methods: Twenty-eight recreational athletes were recruited. Of these, 13 athletes had a history of unilateral HSI and 15 had no history of HSI. Following familiarisation, all athletes undertook isokinetic dynamometry testing and surface electromyography assessment of the biceps femoris long head and medial hamstrings during concentric and eccentric contractions at ± 180 and ± 60deg/s. Results: The previously injured limb was weaker at all contraction speeds compared to the uninjured limb (+180deg/s mean difference(MD) = 9.3Nm, p = 0.0036; +60deg/s MD = 14.0Nm, p = 0.0013; -60deg/s MD = 18.3Nm, p = 0.0007; -180deg/s MD = 20.5Nm, p = 0.0007) whilst VA was only lower in the biceps femoris long head during eccentric contractions (-60deg/s MD = 0.13, p = 0.0025; -180deg/s MD = 0.13, p = 0.0003). There were no between limb differences in medial hamstring VA or MPF from either biceps femoris long head or medial hamstrings in the injured group. The uninjured group showed no between limb differences with any of the tested variables. Conclusion: Previously injured hamstrings were weaker than the contralateral uninjured hamstring at all tested speeds and contraction modes. During eccentric contractions biceps femoris long head VA was lower in the previously injured limb suggesting neural control of biceps femoris long head may be altered following HSI. Current rehabilitation practices have been unsuccessful in restoring strength and VA following HSI. Restoration of these markers should be considered when determining the success of rehabilitation from HSI. Further investigations are required to elucidate the full impact of lower levels of biceps femoris long head VA following HSI on rehabilitation outcomes and re-injury risk.