An evaluation of new parsimony-based versus parametric inference methods in biogeography: a case study using the globally distributed plant family Sapindaceae

Aim  Recently developed parametric methods in historical biogeography allow researchers to integrate temporal and palaeogeographical information into the reconstruction of biogeographical scenarios, thus overcoming a known bias of parsimony-based approaches. Here, we compare a parametric method, dispersal-extinction-cladogenesis (DEC), against a parsimony-based method, dispersal-vicariance analysis (DIVA), which does not incorporate branch lengths but accounts for phylogenetic uncertainty through a Bayesian empirical approach (Bayes-DIVA). We analyse the benefits and limitations of each method using the cosmopolitan plant family Sapindaceae as a case study.Location  World-wide.Methods  Phylogenetic relationships were estimated by Bayesian inference on a large dataset representing generic diversity within Sapindaceae. Lineage divergence times were estimated by penalized likelihood over a sample of trees from the posterior distribution of the phylogeny to account for dating uncertainty in biogeographical reconstructions. We compared biogeographical scenarios between Bayes-DIVA and two different DEC models: one with no geological constraints and another that employed a stratified palaeogeographical model in which dispersal rates were scaled according to area connectivity across four time slices, reflecting the changing continental configuration over the last 110 million years.Results  Despite differences in the underlying biogeographical model, Bayes-DIVA and DEC inferred similar biogeographical scenarios. The main differences were: (1) in the timing of dispersal events - which in Bayes-DIVA sometimes conflicts with palaeogeographical information, and (2) in the lower frequency of terminal dispersal events inferred by DEC. Uncertainty in divergence time estimations influenced both the inference of ancestral ranges and the decisiveness with which an area can be assigned to a node.Main conclusions  By considering lineage divergence times, the DEC method gives more accurate reconstructions that are in agreement with palaeogeographical evidence. In contrast, Bayes-DIVA showed the highest decisiveness in unequivocally reconstructing ancestral ranges, probably reflecting its ability to integrate phylogenetic uncertainty. Care should be taken in defining the palaeogeographical model in DEC because of the possibility of overestimating the frequency of extinction events, or of inferring ancestral ranges that are outside the extant species ranges, owing to dispersal constraints enforced by the model. The wide-spanning spatial and temporal model proposed here could prove useful for testing large-scale biogeographical patterns in plants.

Decisive Coalitions and Coherence Properties

In a seminal contribution, Hansson has demonstrated that the family of decisive coalitions associated with an Arrovian social welfare function forms an ultrafilter. If the population under consideration is infinite, his result implies the existence of nondictatorial social welfare functions. He goes on to show that if transitivity is weakened to quasi-transitivity as the coherence property imposed on a social relation, the set of decisive coalitions is a filter. We examine the structure of decisive coalitions and analogous concepts with alternative coherence properties, namely, acyclicity and Suzumura consistency, and without assuming that the social relation is complete.

Product Filters, Acyclicity and Suzumura Consistency

In a seminal contribution, Hansson (1976) demonstrates that the collection of decisive coalitions associated with an Arrovian social welfare function forms an ultrafilter. He goes on to show that if transitivity is weakened to quasi-transitivity as the coherence property imposed on a social relation, the set of decisive coalitions is a filter. We examine the notion of decisiveness with acyclical or Suzumura consistent social preferences and without assuming that the social relation is complete. This leads to a new set-theoretic concept applied to product spaces.

Multi-Profile Intertemporal Social Choice

We provide a brief survey of some literature on intertemporal social choice theory in a multi-profile setting. As is well-known, Arrow’s impossibility result hinges on the assumption that the population is finite. For infinite populations, there exist nondictatorial social welfare functions satisfying Arrow’s axioms and they can be described by their corresponding collections of decisive coalitions. We review contributions that explore whether this possibility in the infinite-population context allows for a richer class of social welfare functions in an intergenerational model. Different notions of stationarity formulated for individual and for social preferences are examined. Journal of Economic Literature Classification No.: D71.

Caracterización de la competencia entre dos organizaciones del sector de seguros en Colombia

En la permanente búsqueda de mejores condiciones que las organizaciones realizan con el propósito de dar respuesta a los cambios del entorno y la complejidad de la interacción con las organizaciones del mismo sector, se encuentra necesario identificar las características que les permiten a estas, sobrevivir, mantenerse en el mercado o crecer en él. En este orden de ideas, en este documento se desarrolla la caracterización de la forma como dos organizaciones importantes y líderes del sector asegurador en Colombia: Seguros Bolívar y Suramericana de Seguros, compiten, desde el punto de vista comercial, con el propósito de identificar como esto influye en cada organización. La investigación se centró en explicar a partir de los autores revisados y analizados con respecto al concepto de la competencia, en particular, la forma como se enfrenta la organización al entorno tanto interno como externo, la influencia de cada organización según su estructura, su importancia, la disponibilidad de los recursos necesarios para desarrollar sus actividades, el impacto y las implicaciones organizacionales a partir de la forma cómo se enfrenta el entorno. Para lo anterior y con base a la revisión conceptual, se realizó la recolección de datos y cifras tanto de las organizaciones como del sector al cual pertenecen, adicionalmente se realizaron entrevistas tanto estructuradas como semi estructuradas al área de ventas, debido a que es el área de las organizaciones encargada de generar estrategias de ventas, posicionar productos en el mercado, identificar el perfil del consumidor, conocer y comprender el mercado y la competencia. Lo anterior con el fin de caracterizar a las organizaciones analizadas, determinando cómo responden a la competencia y al entorno, para finalmente establecer cuáles son los comportamientos recurrentes, similares y diferentes entre ellas. Por lo tanto, los resultados obtenidos en la investigación permiten establecer si dos empresas con estructuras, tamaño y participación en el mercado similares compiten de igual forma y que implicación tiene esto en el comportamiento organizacional.

Rescuing a telecom giant from the jaws of bankruptcy: a case study and an interview with Sir Richard Lapthorne, chairman of Cable & Wireless

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate key strategic decisions involved in turning around a large multinational operating in a dynamic market. Design/methodology/approach – The paper is based on analysis of archival documents and a semi-structured interview with the chairman of the company credited with its rescue. Findings – Turnaround is complex and involves both planned and emergent strategies. The progress is non-linear requiring adjustment and change in direction of travel. Top management credibility and vision is critical to success. Rescue is only possible if the company has a strong cash generative business among its businesses. The speed of decision making, decisiveness and the ability to implement strategy are among the key ingredients of success. Originality/value – Turnaround is an under-researched area in strategy. This paper contributes to a better understanding in this important area and bridges the gap between theory and practice. It provides a practical view and demonstrates how a leading executive with significant expertise and successful turnaround track record deals with inherent dilemmas of turnaround

Förståelse, bedömningar och hjälpinsatser : Socialarbetares arbete med män som våldsoffer

This report outlines the background to, and presents the results from the Crime Victim Compensation and Support Authority funded project "Social Workers' understanding of men as victims of crime". The project aimed at describing and analyzing how social workers understand and work with male victims of violence. More precisely, the research has focused on how social workers describe men's vulnerability and how they understand men's needs for assistance, what assistance that is provided and the way the constellations of perpetrators and victims of different gender and contexts in which the violence occurs in affect the understanding of male victims of violence. The study has also been devoted to the question of whether the Support Centers for young crime victims in Sweden provide different types of and different amount of help to young men and women afflicted of violence. The project was conducted in three substudies. The results from substudy 1 show that more young men than women seek support from the Support centers studied. Men predominate in number of cases and in the different categories of crime. The results also show that young men on average receive less assistance over a shorter average duration than young women. This applies irrespective of the category of offense that the vulnerability applies to. Furthermore, the young men, compared to the women, proportionally receive fewer interventions characterized as support and a greater proportion of interventions in the form of information. The results also show that the young men are referred on for further action to a lesser extent than is the case for women. The results from substudy 2 show that social workers tend to focus on whether, and to what extent, young men who are victims of violence themselves have behaved provocatively before the violence incident and if they have put themselves in a social situation that could be interpreted as having contributed to an escalation of the violence they have been subjected to. The results from substudy 2 also show that social workers talk about the men as active in the violent situations they have been involved in and dwell on the extent to which the young men's own actions have contributed to the violence. The results also show that young men who are victims of violence are described as "reluctant" victims who are trying to cope with their situation on their own without the involvement of professional or other helper. The young men are also described as reluctant to talk about their feelings. The results of substudy 3 show that social workers believe that young men, when they become victims of violence, risks losing their sense of autonomy, initiative and decisiveness, that is, attributes that are often linked to the dominating cultural image of masculinity. Furthermore, the results show that social workers estimate that men's practicing of their masculinity, but also the response that men who are traumatized get from society, creates difficulties for them to get help. The results from substudy 3 also shows that attributes and actions that can be connected to the masculinity of young men's, as well as a lack of such attributes and actions are considered to be adequate explanations for the violence the men has suffered. When it comes to violence in public places it is the masculinity that explains the violence and its escalation. When it comes to domestic violence it is the lack of expected male attributes and actions that are used as explanations for the violence that have occurred. The discussion is devoted to the question of how the results should be understood based on the concepts of self-performance, interpretation, negotiation and categorizations, and the consequences the results obtained should have for gender sensitive social work given to abused men.

Embedding defeasible logic into logic programming

Defeasible reasoning is a simple but efficient approach to nonmonotonic reasoning that has recently attracted considerable interest and that has found various applications. Defeasible logic and its variants are an important family of defeasible reasoning methods. So far no relationship has been established between defeasible logic and mainstream nonmonotonic reasoning approaches. In this paper we establish close links to known semantics of logic programs. In particular, we give a translation of a defeasible theory D into a meta-program P(D). We show that under a condition of decisiveness, the defeasible consequences of D correspond exactly to the sceptical conclusions of P(D) under the stable model semantics. Without decisiveness, the result holds only in one direction (all defeasible consequences of D are included in all stable models of P(D)). If we wish a complete embedding for the general case, we need to use the Kunen semantics of P(D), instead.