The Inflation Index Prognosis Based on the Method of Decision-Marking “Tree”

The description of the support system for marking decision in terms of prognosing the inflation level based on the multifactor dependence represented by the decision – marking “tree” is given in the paper. The interrelation of factors affecting the inflation level – economic, financial, political, socio-demographic ones, is considered. The perspectives for developing the method of decision – marking “tree”, and pointing out the so- called “narrow” spaces and further analysis of possible scenarios for inflation level prognosing in particular, are defined.

性别、效价及媒体对选择冲突问题解决的影响

Choice conflict is a critical issue in decision making. This study adopted stock transaction as the task to explore the relation between share price level and conflict intensity that the subjects experienced in decision making, and the effect of price level on individual and group choice conflict resolution. The strategy people used to solve choice conflict and gender difference were also examined. Modes of interaction (face to face and through audio media) in group decision making were also studied. The main results are as follows: 1. In individual decision-marking, there is a significant gender effect on decision time. Female subjects will spent more time on the task than male subjects. 2. When making a choice decision, the individual experienced stronger conflict for price shares than for low price shares. The stronger the conflict level they feel, the more difficult to make the choice decision. 3. Four strategies were used to finish the task. Male subjects used simple strategies while female subjects used more complex strategies. 4. In group decision-making, share price level had a significant effect on selection time. People used longer selection time for low price shares than for high price shares. No significant interaction was found between share price level and Modes of interaction. 5. Modes of interaction had significant effect on satisfaction coherence of the group. Under face-to-face condition, people within one group had greater satisfaction coherence. 6. Media had no significant effect on people's perception during the experiment. Satisfaction for cooperation, successful communication and good cooperation were correlated. Self satisfaction and satisfaction of the partners others were also correlated with the satisfaction of the whole task.

Modelagem da paisagem orientada ao processo decisório da gestão socioambiental na bacia hidrográfica do rio Manso (MT)

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Administración pública local y construcción de la central hidroeléctrica en la Amazonia

Exponemos los resultados de una observación exploratoria en la que se analizan los impactos funcionales en el sistema administrativo como consecuencia de la construcción de la Central Hidroeléctrica de Belo Monte (CHB) en el municipio de Altamira (Amazonia oriental brasileña). En la perspectiva teórico-conceptual de la teoría de sistemas sociales de Niklas Luhmann, realizamos una observación del sistema administrativo local sobre sus operaciones y funciones, en base a cuatro códigos preestablecidos: toma de decisiones, contingencia, significación simbólica del proyecto y planificación. Las conclusiones permiten entrever en un aplano conceptual la utilidad de los conceptos sistémicos de Luhmann, y en el empírico, una planificación y administración pública municipal reactivas.

Tourism Destination Preferences: A Longitudinal Analysis of Consumer Decision Sets

There have only been a small number of applications of consumer decision set theory to holiday destination choice, and these studies have tended to rely on a single cross sectional snapshot of research participants’ stated preferences. Very little has been reported on the relationship between stated destination preferences and actual travel, or changes in decision set composition over time. The paper presents a rare longitudinal examination of destination decision sets, in the context of short break holidays by car in Queensland, Australia. Two questionnaires were administered, three months apart. The first identified destination preferences while the second examined actual travel and revisited destination preferences. In relation to the conference theme, there was very little change in consumer preferences towards the competitive set of destinations over the three month period. A key implication for the destination of interest, which, in an attempt to change market perceptions, launched a new brand campaign during the period of the project, is that a long term investment in a consistent brand message will be required to change market perceptions. The results go some way to support the proposition that the positioning of a destination into a consumer’s decision set represents a source of competitive advantage.