Anàlisi del risc del preu dels índex IBEX-35 i DAX-30

En aquest treball es porta a terme l’anàlisi del comportament dels índexs IBEX-35 i DAX-30 en el període comprès entre els anys 2008 – 2012. L’objectiu del treball és analitzar com han evolucionat determinades mesures del risc, com són, la Volatilitat, el VaR i el CVaR en els dos índexs. Aquest anàlisi té la finalitat d’aconseguir evidències del diferent comportament d’aquests índexs en el període analitzat, i així veure el diferent impacte que ha tingut la crisis econòmica actual en l’economia espanyola i alemanya.

The Forecast Performance of Model-Free Implied Volatility: Evidence from DAX Index Options

Volatility has a central role in various theoretical and practical applications in financial markets. These include the applications related to portfolio theory, derivatives pricing and financial risk management. Both theoretical and practical applications require good estimates and forecasts for the asset return volatility. The goal of this study is to examine the forecast performance of one of the more recent volatility measures, model-free implied volatility. Model-free implied volatility is extracted from the prices in the option markets, and it aims to provide an unbiased estimate for the market’s expectation on the future level of volatility. Since it is extracted from the option prices, model-free implied volatility should contain all the relevant information that the market participants have. Moreover, model-free implied volatility requires less restrictive assumptions than the commonly used Black-Scholes implied volatility, which means that it should be less biased estimate for the market’s expectations. Therefore, it should also be a better forecast for the future volatility. The forecast performance of model-free implied volatility is evaluated by comparing it to the forecast performance of Black-Scholes implied volatility and GARCH(1,1) forecast. Weekly forecasts for six years period were calculated for the forecasted variable, German stock market index DAX. The data consisted of price observations for DAX index options. The forecast performance was measured using econometric methods, which aimed to capture the biasedness, accuracy and the information content of the forecasts. The results of the study suggest that the forecast performance of model-free implied volatility is superior to forecast performance of GARCH(1,1) forecast. However, the results also suggest that the forecast performance of model-free implied volatility is not as good as the forecast performance of Black-Scholes implied volatility, which is against the hypotheses based on theory. The results of this study are consistent with the majority of prior research on the subject.

Mémoire de géo-zoologie sur les Oursins fossiles (Échinides) qui se rencontrent dans les terrains calcaires des environs de Dax ...

Mode of access: Internet.

Wertorientierte Unternehmensführung am Beispiel der DAX-30-Unternehmen – Qualitative und quantitative Auswertung auf Grundlage der externen Geschäftsberichterstattung

Eine wertorientierte Unternehmensführung hat in den letzten Jahren in den Unternehmen zunehmend an Bedeutung gewonnen. Wertorientierung stellt dabei ein Führungsverhalten dar, welches sich mit der Gestaltung und Realisierung von wertorientierten Zielen auf Managementebene beschäftigt. Heutzutage lebt Wertorientierung vom Einklang aus ökonomischen, ökologischen und gesellschaftlichen Gesichtspunkten. Die vorliegende Masterarbeit befasst sich mit der Geschäftsberichtsanalyse der DAX-30-Unternehmen hinsichtlich wertorientierter Steuerung. Dabei werden Unternehmen hinsichtlich ihres Bekenntnisses zur Wertorientierung, Veröffentlichung wertorientierter Kennzahlen und Höhe der Kapitalkostensätze untersucht.Hierbei kommt der Vergleichbarkeit und Transparenz eine entscheidende Rolle zu. Die Untersuchung ergibt ein hohes Bekenntnis zur Wertorientierung in nahezu allen betrachteten DAX-Unternehmen. Die Unternehmen führen viele Spitzenkennzahlen an, die vorwiegend auf dem Economic Value Added basieren. Zusätzlich werden eine Reihe weiterer, in der betrieblichen Praxis als wertorientierte Kennzahlen genutzte Messgrößen, herausgegeben. Eine Vergleichbarkeit untereinander gestaltet sich sehr schwierig, da Berechnung und Bezeichnung gleicher Kennzahlen sehr unterschiedlich sind. Daran wird sich ohne einheitlichen Standard in naher bis mittelfristiger Zukunft nichts ändern.

Is stock market volatility persistent? A fractionally integrated approach

This paper seeks to study the persistence in the G7’s stock market volatility, which is carried out using the GARCH, IGARCH and FIGARCH models. The data set consists of the daily returns of the S&P/TSX 60, CAC 40, DAX 30, MIB 30, NIKKEI 225, FTSE 100 and S&P 500 indexes over the period 1999-2009. The results evidences long memory in volatility, which is more pronounced in Germany, Italy and France. On the other hand, Japan appears as the country where this phenomenon is less obvious; nevertheless, the persistence prevails but with minor intensity.

Natural organic matter fractionation along the treatment of water for human consumption

The main objective of this study was to characterize the organic matter present in raw water and along the treatment process, as well as its seasonal variation. A natural organic matter fractionation approach has been applied to Lever water treatment plant located in Douro River, in Oporto (Portugal). The process used was based on the sorption of dissolved organic matter in different types of ion exchange resins, DAX-8, DAX-4 and IRA-958, allowing its separation into four fractions: very hydrophobic acids (VHA), slightly hydrophobic acids (SHA), charged hydrophilic (CHA) and hydrophilic neutral (NEU). The dissolved organic carbon (DOC) determination was used to quantify dissolved organic matter. Samples were collected monthly, during approximately one year, from raw water captured at the surface and under the bed of the river, and after each step of the treatment: pre-filtration in sand/anthracite filters, ozonation, coagulation/flocculation, counter current dissolved air flotation and filtration (CoCoDAFF) and chlorination. The NEU fraction showed a seasonal variation, with maximum values in autumn for the sampling points corresponding to raw water captured at the surface and under the bed of the river. It was usually the predominating fraction and did not show a significant decrease throughout the treatment. Nevertheless their low concentration, the same occurred for the CHA and VHA fractions. There was an overall decrease in the SHA fraction throughout the water treatment (especially after CoCoDAFF and ozonation) as well as in the DOC. The TSUVA254 values obtained for raw water generally varied between 2.0 and 4.0 L mgC-1 m-1 and between 0.75 and 1.78 L mgC-1 m-1 for treated water. It was observed a decrease of TSUVA values along the treatment, especially after ozonation. These results may contribute to a further optimization in the process of treating water for human consumption.

Caracterização da matéria orgânica natural em águas para consumo humano

O tratamento de água para consumo humano tem por objectivos não só a sua qualidade em termos de parâmetros químicos e físicos, como também microbiológicos. Considerando que a MON pode afectar os sistemas de tratamento, a sua redução minimiza a formação de subprodutos de desinfecção, como por exemplo os trihalometanos e diminui o crescimento de microrganismos ao longo do sistema de distribuição. Nesse sentido tem havido recentemente uma grande evolução na investigação relativamente à remoção de matéria orgânica natural. O principal objectivo deste trabalho foi o de caracterizar a matéria orgânica presente na água bruta e ao longo do processo de tratamento, assim como a sua evolução sazonal. Os dados obtidos a partir desta caracterização poderão contribuir para uma futura optimização no processo de tratamento de águas de consumo. O processo utilizado baseou-se na sorção da matéria orgânica dissolvida em diferentes tipos de resinas de permuta iónica, DAX-8, DAX-4 e IRA-958, permitindo a sua separação em várias fracções: ácidos muito hidrofóbicos (VHA), ácidos ligeiramente hidrofóbicos (SHA), compostos hidrofílicos carregados (CHA) e hidrofílicos neutros (NEU). De acordo com os resultados obtidos apenas a fracção NEU demonstrou ter uma tendência sazonal, apresentando valores máximos no Verão, nos pontos de amostragem referentes à água bruta superficial (PA802) e água bruta superficial após pré-tratamento por filtração (PA800). Os valores de COD não mostraram uma variação sazonal para as amostras de água bruta superficial que rondaram os 2 mg C/L ao longo do período de amostragem (Julho a Outubro), durante o qual se verificou uma baixa pluviosidade e temperaturas médias muito semelhantes. Os compostos NEU predominam em todos os pontos de amostragem não apresentando uma tendência definida ao longo do tratamento. Observou-se uma diminuição das fracções SHA e CHA ao longo do tratamento. Não se pode indicar uma tendência definida relativamente à fracção VHA. Verifica-se globalmente uma diminuição do teor de MON ao longo do tratamento. Este trabalho demonstrou que na água bruta superficial existe uma predominância dos compostos NEU, seguidos dos SHA, dos VHA e finalmente dos compostos CHA. Na água bruta captada no sub-leito do rio, verifica-se apenas a existência dos compostos NEU, sendo as restantes fracções praticamente nulas. Os valores mais elevados de TSUVA254nm foram obtidos para as amostras que não sofreram qualquer tratamento, água bruta do sub-leito (PA903) e superficial (PA802), e água bruta após pré-filtração (PA800). Nos restantes pontos de amostragem, apesar de se verificarem valores inferiores, não se observa uma diminuição deste parâmetro ao longo do tratamento, nem uma variação sazonal. Os valores de TSUVA254nm obtidos são geralmente inferiores a 3 L.mgC-1.m-1, correspondendo a materiais não húmicos, que são considerados biodegradáveis. Para as amostras de água tratada os valores oscilam entre os 1,23 e 1,58 L.mgC-1.m-1, valores inferiores a 2 L.mgC-1.m-1, o que é considerado um valor de referência ao nível do tratamento, segundo a USEPA.

Os efeitos das variações das taxas de juro na volatilidade dos mercados bolsistas

Mestrado em Controlo de Gestão e dos Negócios

Power law analysis of financial index dynamics

Power law PL and fractional calculus are two faces of phenomena with long memory behavior. This paper applies PL description to analyze different periods of the business cycle. With such purpose the evolution of ten important stock market indices DAX, Dow Jones, NASDAQ, Nikkei, NYSE, S&P500, SSEC, HSI, TWII, and BSE over time is studied. An evolutionary algorithm is used for the fitting of the PL parameters. It is observed that the PL curve fitting constitutes a good tool for revealing the signal main characteristics leading to the emergence of the global financial dynamic evolution.