Increasing Critical Sensitivity of the Load/Unload Response Ratio before Large Earthquakes with Identified Stress Acclumulation Pattern

The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is proposed for short-to-intermediate-term earthquake prediction [Yin, X.C., Chen, X.Z., Song, Z.P., Yin, C., 1995. A New Approach to Earthquake Prediction — The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) Theory, Pure Appl. Geophys., 145, 701–715]. This method is based on measuring the ratio between Benioff strains released during the time periods of loading and unloading, corresponding to the Coulomb Failure Stress change induced by Earth tides on optimally oriented faults. According to the method, the LURR time series usually climb to an anomalously high peak prior to occurrence of a large earthquake. Previous studies have indicated that the size of critical seismogenic region selected for LURR measurements has great influence on the evaluation of LURR. In this study, we replace the circular region usually adopted in LURR practice with an area within which the tectonic stress change would mostly affect the Coulomb stress on a potential seismogenic fault of a future event. The Coulomb stress change before a hypothetical earthquake is calculated based on a simple back-slip dislocation model of the event. This new algorithm, by combining the LURR method with our choice of identified area with increased Coulomb stress, is devised to improve the sensitivity of LURR to measure criticality of stress accumulation before a large earthquake. Retrospective tests of this algorithm on four large earthquakes occurred in California over the last two decades show remarkable enhancement of the LURR precursory anomalies. For some strong events of lesser magnitudes occurred in the same neighborhoods and during the same time periods, significant anomalies are found if circular areas are used, and are not found if increased Coulomb stress areas are used for LURR data selection. The unique feature of this algorithm may provide stronger constraints on forecasts of the size and location of future large events.

Experimental Evidence of Critical Sensitivity in Catastrophe

The paper presents an experimental study on critical sensitivity in rocks. Critical sensitivity means that the response of a system to external controlling variable may become significantly sensitive as the system approaches its catastrophic rupture point. It is found that the sensitivities measured by responses on three scales (sample scale, locally macroscopic scales and mesoscopic scale) display increase prior to catastrophic transition point. These experimental results do support the concept that critical sensitivity might be a common precursory feature of catastrophe. Furthermore, our previous theoretical model is extended to explore the fluctuations in critical sensitivity in the rock tests.

Simulation of the Load-Unload Response Ratio and Critical Sensitivity in the Lattice Solid Model

The Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is an intermediate-term earthquake prediction approach that has shown considerable promise. It involves calculating the ratio of a specified energy release measure during loading and unloading where loading and unloading periods are determined from the earth tide induced perturbations in the Coulomb Failure Stress on optimally oriented faults. In the lead-up to large earthquakes, high LURR values are frequently observed a few months or years prior to the event. These signals may have a similar origin to the observed accelerating seismic moment release (AMR) prior to many large earthquakes or may be due to critical sensitivity of the crust when a large earthquake is imminent. As a first step towards studying the underlying physical mechanism for the LURR observations, numerical studies are conducted using the particle based lattice solid model (LSM) to determine whether LURR observations can be reproduced. The model is initialized as a heterogeneous 2-D block made up of random-sized particles bonded by elastic-brittle links. The system is subjected to uniaxial compression from rigid driving plates on the upper and lower edges of the model. Experiments are conducted using both strain and stress control to load the plates. A sinusoidal stress perturbation is added to the gradual compressional loading to simulate loading and unloading cycles and LURR is calculated. The results reproduce signals similar to those observed in earthquake prediction practice with a high LURR value followed by a sudden drop prior to macroscopic failure of the sample. The results suggest that LURR provides a good predictor for catastrophic failure in elastic-brittle systems and motivate further research to study the underlying physical mechanisms and statistical properties of high LURR values. The results provide encouragement for earthquake prediction research and the use of advanced simulation models to probe the physics of earthquakes.

Critical Sensitivity and Trans-Scale Fluctuations in Catastrophic Rupture

Rupture in the heterogeneous crust appears to be a catastrophe transition. Catastrophic rupture sensitively depends on the details of heterogeneity and stress transfer on multiple scales. These are difficult to identify and deal with. As a result, the threshold of earthquake-like rupture presents uncertainty. This may be the root of the difficulty of earthquake prediction. Based on a coupled pattern mapping model, we represent critical sensitivity and trans-scale fluctuations associated with catastrophic rupture. Critical sensitivity means that a system may become significantly sensitive near catastrophe transition. Trans-scale fluctuations mean that the level of stress fluctuations increases strongly and the spatial scale of stress and damage fluctuations evolves from the mesoscopic heterogeneity scale to the macroscopic scale as the catastrophe regime is approached. The underlying mechanism behind critical sensitivity and trans-scale fluctuations is the coupling effect between heterogeneity and dynamical nonlinearity. Such features may provide clues for prediction of catastrophic rupture, like material failure and great earthquakes. Critical sensitivity may be the physical mechanism underlying a promising earthquake forecasting method, the load-unload response ratio (LURR).

Experimental Evidence of Critical Sensitivity in Catastrophe

The paper presents an experimental study on critical sensitivity in rocks. Critical sensitivity means that the response of a system to external controlling variable may become significantly sensitive as the system approaches its catastrophic rupture point. It is found that the sensitivities measured by responses on three scales (sample scale, locally macroscopic scales and mesoscopic scale) display increase prior to catastrophic transition point. These experimental results do support the concept that critical sensitivity might be a common precursory feature of catastrophe. Furthermore, our previous theoretical model is extended to explore the fluctuations in critical sensitivity in the rock tests.

Damage Localization, Sensitivity of Energy Release and the Catastrophe Transition

Large earthquakes can be viewed as catastrophic ruptures in the earth’s crust. There are two common features prior to the catastrophe transition in heterogeneous media. One is damage localization and the other is critical sensitivity; both of which are related to a cascade of damage coalescence. In this paper, in an attempt to reveal the physics underlying the catastrophe transition, analytic analysis based on mean-field approximation of a heterogeneous medium as well as numerical simulations using a network model are presented. Both the emergence of damage localization and the sensitivity of energy release are examined to explore the inherent statistical precursors prior to the eventual catastrophic rupture. Emergence of damage localization, as predicted by the mean-field analysis, is consistent with observations of the evolution of damage patterns. It is confirmed that precursors can be extracted from the time-series of energy release according to its sensitivity to increasing crustal stress. As a major result, present research indicates that the catastrophe transition and the critical point hypothesis (CPH) of earthquakes are interrelated. The results suggest there may be two cross-checking precursors of large earthquakes: damage localization and critical sensitivity.

Synchronous Multi-Scale Observations on Rock Damage and Rupture

This paper reports a multi-scale study on damage evolution process and rupture of gabbro under uniaxial compression with several experimental techniques, including MTS810 testing machine, white digital speckle correlation method, and acoustic emission technique. In particular, the synchronization of the three experimental systems is realized for the study of relationship of deformation and damage at multiple scales. It is found that there are significant correlation between damage evolution at small and large length scales, and rupture at sample scale, especially it displays critical sensitivity at multiple scales and trans-scale fluctuations.

The Newest Developments Of Load-Unload Response Ratio (Lurr)

The Load Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is an intermediate-term earthquake prediction approach that has shown considerable promise. It is inspiring that its predictions using LURR have been improving. Since 2004 we have made a major breakthrough in intermediate-term earthquake forecasting of the strong earthquakes on the Chinese mainland using LURR and successfully predicted the Pakistan earthquake with magnitude M 7.6 on October 8, 2005. The causes for improving the prediction in terms of LURR have been discussed in the present paper.

Damage evaluation and damage localization of rock

Knowledge of damage accumulation and corresponding failure evolution are prerequisite for effective maintenance of civil engineering so as to avoid disaster. Based on statistical mesoscopic damage mechanics, it was revealed that there are three stages in the process of deformation, damage and failure of multiscale heterogeneous elastic-brittle medium. These are uniformly distributed damage, localized damage and catastrophic failure. In order to identify the transitions from scattering damage to macroscopically localized one, a condition for damage localization was given. The experiments of rock under uniaxial compression with the aid of observations of acoustic emission and speckle correlation do support the concept of localization. This provides a potential approach to properly evaluate damage accumulation in practice. In addition, it is found in the experiments that catastrophic failure displays critical sensitivity. This gives a helpful clue to the prediction of catastrophic failure. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

非均匀脆性介质破坏的非平衡非线性统计演化

在白以龙小组已有工作的基础上，利用他们提出的简化的耦合斑图模型，几种可能的应力重分配模型在该论文中得到了进一步的讨论。通过不同的应力重分配模型，我们发现了该类演化过程中的三个一般规律，这些规律对于类似的动力过程的预报（例如，非均匀介质的破坏）提供了线索。首先，我们采用系综统计的方法，对相同宏观参量的大量样本的强度分布作了考察，结果表明：宏观强度的统计结果可以非常好的拟合为Weibull分布，且其Weibull模数与系统的大小、应力重分配的方式以及细观单元的强度分布相关。其次，在模拟过程中，对演化过程中的能量释放、损伤事件的统计发现，它们存在标度行为，而且这一标度主要归因于灾变点附近的损伤事件。这一现象表明这一转变具有某种临界特征。最后，对于我们模型中的动力学过程，我们发现了灾变预报的线索。从样本演化过程 中的能量释放规律来看，我们发现有两件事是有意义的：一是辨别出主破坏的发生点（在这一时修，系统中的大部分能量得到释放）；另外，给出转变点（整体稳定转化为演化诱致灾变）的预报。对前一个问题，我们通过考察系统在GS和EIC段的应力损伤涨落特征可以给出回答，通常，在EIC段的最大应力涨落（通常出现在主破坏过程中）比在GS过程中的最大应力涨落高一个数量级，根据这一差异，可以设立一个应力涨落的警戒值来判断系统所处的演化状态。对于后者，受到地震预报中采用的加卸载响应比（LURR）的启发，我们通过对系统中的外回转应力或损伤单元施加一个微增扰动，然后，根据系统在扰动前后释放的能量和相应的扰动，就可以得到临界敏感系数，临界敏感系数在灾变点附近迅速增加，在灾变点之迅速下降到1附近-我们称这一特征为临界敏感性。不同的应力重分配模型下得到了类似的现象，由此看来，对于 类似的动力学过程，临界敏感性是一个一般的特征。这一特征可能为我们对非均匀脆性介质的破坏提供线索。

Ethical decision making

The self-centeredness of modern organizations leads to environmental destruction and human deprivation. The principle of responsibility developed by Hans Jonas requires caring for the beings affected by our decisions and actions. Ethical decision-making creates a synthesis of reverence for ethical norms, rationality in goal achievement, and respect for the stakeholders. The maximin rule selects the "least worst alternative" in the multidimensional decision space of deontological, goal-achievement and stakeholder values. The ethical decision-maker can be characterized as having the ability to take multiple perspectives and make appropriate balance across diverse value dimensions. Modern organizations should develop a critical sensitivity to and empathy toward human and non-human beings with which they share a common environment.

Critical Biot's number for Determination of the Sensitivity of Spherical Ceramics to Thermal Shock

A critical Biot number, which determines both the sensitivity of spherical ceramics to quenching and the durations of the temperature-wave propagation and the thermal stresses in the ceramics subjected to thermal shock, is theoretically obtained. The results prove that once the Biot number of a ceramic sphere is greater than the critical number, its thermal shock failure will be such a rapid process that the failure only occurs in the initial regime of heat conduction, whereas the thermal shock failure of the ceramic sphere is uncertain in the course of heat conduction. The presented results provide a guide to the selection of the ceramics applied in the thermostructural engineering with thermal shock.

Identifying the critical parameters of a cyanobacterial growth and movement model by using generalised sensitivity analysis

Bloom-forming and toxin-producing cyanobacteria remain a persistent nuisance across the world. Modelling of cyanobacteria in freshwaters is an important tool for understanding their population dynamics and predicting the location and timing of the bloom events in lakes and rivers. A new deterministic-mathematical model was developed, which simulates the growth and movement of cyanobacterial blooms in river systems. The model focuses on the mathematical description of the bloom formation, vertical migration and lateral transport of colonies within river environments by taking into account the major factors that affect the cyanobacterial bloom formation in rivers including, light, nutrients and temperature. A technique called generalised sensitivity analysis was applied to the model to identify the critical parameter uncertainties in the model and investigates the interaction between the chosen parameters of the model. The result of the analysis suggested that 8 out of 12 parameters were significant in obtaining the observed cyanobacterial behaviour in a simulation. It was found that there was a high degree of correlation between the half-saturation rate constants used in the model.

A simple method to measure critical angles for high-sensitivity differential refractometry

A total internal reflection-based differencial refractometer, capable of measuring the real and imaginary parts of the complex refractive index in real time, is presented. The device takes advantage of the phase difference acquired by s- and p-polarized light to generate an easily detectable minimum at the reflected profile. The method allows to sensitively measuring transparent and turbid liquid samples. (C)2012 Optical Society of America

Sensitivity analysis of vehicle design attributes that affect vehicle response in critical accident situations - part 1: user's manual. Final report.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Washington, D.C.