Indicadores de core inflation para a economia brasileira

O presente trabalho apresenta uma medida de Core Inflation para a economia brasileira obtida através dos dados desagregados do IPC-DI/FGV. A revisão do conceito, a justificativa para seu uso na política monetária e as diversas formas metodológicas para seu cálculo são apresentadas na primeira parte do trabalho. O método utilizado para o cálculo do Core foi o de Médias Aparadas (Trimmed Means) com o tratamento para setores selecionados com custos de ajustamento. O indicador escolhido, após submetido a diversos testes, foi o de 20% de aparamento com distribuição de variações pontuais de preços dos setores selecionados por 12 meses.

Measuring core inflation as the common trend of prices

In recent years, many central banks have adopted inflation targeting policies starting an intense debate about which measure of inflation to adopt. The literature on core inflation has tried to develop indicators of inflation which would respond only to "significant" changes in inflation. This paper defines a measure of core inflation as the common trend of prices in a multivariate dynamic model, that has, by construction, three properties: it filters idiosyncratic and transitory macro noises, and it leads the future leveI of headline inflation. We also show that the popular trimmed mean estimator of core inflation could be regarded as a proxy for the ideal GLS estimator for heteroskedastic data. We employ an asymmetric trimmed mean estimator to take account of possible skewness of the distribution, and we obtain an unconditional measure of core inflation.

Hotel Profit Implications from Rising Wages and Inflation in the U.S.

Macroeconomic models based on the Phillips Curve predict that as the unemployment rate declines toward the long-run, natural rate, the pace of wage and price growth accelerates and inflation rises.1 In this paper I analyze the profitability prospects for the U.S. hotel industry in today’s relatively volatile economic environment, keeping in mind the Phillips Curve’s general principle that inflation and employment have an inverse, but relatively stable short-term relationship. Although employment and economic growth in the U.S. have been uneven in recent months, the unemployment rate has declined to less than 5 percent, which many economists believe is close to the natural rate. Growth in wages and salaries, as measured by the Employment Cost Index, has concurrently been moving upward between 2.5 and 3.0 percent during the past 12 months. At the same time, general inflation remains below levels that might typically be expected this late in the cycle, although core inflation is bumping up against the Federal Reserve’s 2-percent target. If the inflation rate continues to move upward as predicted by Phillips Curve models (and encouraged by the Federal Reserve), rising labor costs and other expenses will exert downward pressure on U.S. business profits. Backward movement up the Phillips Curve (with greater inflation) coincides with an expanding economy. In that scenario, prices of goods and services also will rise in real terms if their supply cannot keep up with demand, and producers have the ability to raise prices (absent fixed-price contracts such as leases).

Metas para inflação e taxa de juros no Brasil: uma análise do efeito dos preços livres e administrados

After surpassed more than half a decade since the adoption of inflation targeting in Brazil, it can be seen that maintaining a high interest rate is inherent to the strategy for the conduction of the monetary policy. The objective of this paper is to show that the present policy for defining the basic interest rate of the economy, based on the response to inflation considering both market and administered prices, is onerous for the Brazilian society. Based on findings from empirical evidence in the period 1999-2004, the adoption of a core inflation, a change in the time horizon for definition of targets, and, in common agreement between Banco Central do Brasil and National Treasury, a definition of these inflation targets, as a framework to increase efficiency of the monetary regime, creates possibilities for proposing a reduction on the Selic rate.

Juros, câmbio e o sistema de metas de inflação no Brasil

Interest rate, exchange rate and the system of inflation target in Brazil. In the consensus view of the Brazilian system of inflation targeting, the core of inflation is due to demand shocks; the rate of interest is set to control demand; and some variation in the exchange rate happens as "collateral damage". In this note we argue that in reality core inflation comes from cost push; the interest rate affects the exchange rate; changes in the exchange rate affect costs and prices; it is the effect of interest rates on demand that is the "collateral damage" and that the long run anchor of the system is low average real wage rigidity.

Núcleos de inflação: avaliação das atuais medidas e sugestão de novos indicadores para o Brasil

Desde a implantação do sistema de metas de inflação em julho de 1999, o Banco Central (BC) tem utilizado para monitorar a política monetária um número crescente de indicadores, dentre os quais, incluem-se as medidas de núcleo de inflação. O objetivo é obter uma informação mais precisa sobre o curso da inflação no país e, consequentemente, sobre o futuro da política monetária. Além do Banco Central, muitas instituições financeiras utilizam medidas de núcleo para orientar suas estimativas em relação ao comportamento da inflação no país. Deste modo, esta dissertação faz uma avaliação dos núcleos de inflação utilizando os principais testes estatísticos e econométricos sugeridos pela literatura econômica e propõe ainda novos indicadores para o Brasil.

Núcleos de inflação no Brasil e poder preditivo da inflação total

Este trabalho tem por objetivo avaliar para o caso brasileiro uma das mais importantes propriedades esperadas de um núcleo: ser um bom previsor da inflação plena futura. Para tanto, foram utilizados como referência para comparação dois modelos construídos a partir das informações mensais do IPCA e seis modelos VAR referentes a cada uma das medidas de núcleo calculadas pelo Banco Central do Brasil. O desempenho das previsões foi avaliado pela comparação dos resultados do erro quadrático médio e pela aplicação da metodologia de Diebold-Mariano (1995) de comparação de modelos. Os resultados encontrados indicam que o atual conjunto de medidas de núcleos calculado pelo Banco Central não atende pelos critérios utilizados neste trabalho a essa característica desejada.

A estrutura hierárquica das variações de preços e o núcleo da inflação

The approach proposed here explores the hierarchical nature of item-level data on price changes. On one hand, price data is naturally organized around a regional strucuture, with variations being observed on separate cities. Moreover, the itens that comprise the natural structure of CPIs are also normally interpreted in terms of groups that have economic interpretations, such as tradables and non-tradables, energyrelated, raw foodstuff, monitored prices, etc. The hierarchical dynamic factor model allow the estimation of multiple factors that are naturally interpreted as relating to each of these regional and economic levels.

Métodos econométricos para a análise do índice de inflação no Brasil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Prevalência, distribuição espacial e fatores de risco para cisticercose bovina no estado de São Paulo

This study aimed to determine the prevalence and geographical distribution as well as the factors and areas of risk associated with bovine cysticercosis in the State of Sao Paulo. 34.443 cattle, males and females with ages from 18 to 60 months were inspected. The animals were from 97 cities in the state of Sao Paulo and identified and slaughtered in the period October 2010 to August 2011, in a refrigerator located in Ipua - SP, under the supervision of SIF 1387. The state of Sao Paulo was divided into regional centers, and the data of the municipalities belonging to its core, were grouped according to the Department of Agriculture and Food Supply of Sao Paulo, totaling 13 cores studied. Based on these results, we can conclude that of the 97 cities analyzed, cattle were found positive for the disease in 86. The average prevalence of bovine cysticercosis in the state of Sao Paulo was 4.80 %, while the core inflation Franca and Barretos were the ones with the highest number of cases illness during the analysis period. Moreover, the largest number of cases in these core coincided with the lowest human development index covering education, with the largest acreage of coffee (core Franca) and also as the largest area of cane sugar grown (core Barretos) in these locations, which in turn may indicate that the presence of labor, temporary labor in rural areas, combined with socioeconomic/cultural factors might contribute to the spread and establishment of bovine cysticercosis in these areas.

MEDIDAS DE NÚCLEO INFLACIONARIO PARA COSTA RICA

En este documento se elaboran y evalúan medidas alternativas de núcleo inflacionario para Costa Rica. La idea fundamental contempla al núcleo inflacionario como un indicador de la tendencia subyacente de la inflación capaz de capturar el componente del cambio total de precios común a todos los bienes y servicios, cuya persistencia se mantendría en el mediano y largo plazo y que excluye los cambios en los precios relativos de estos. La medida de núcleo inflacionario seleccionada se contrasta con el Índice de Núcleo Inflacionario (INI), indicador de inflación subyacente actualmente utilizado por el Banco Central de Costa Rica (BCCR).El Índice Subyacente de Inflación (ISI), definido como una medida de núcleo inflacionario que excluye un 30,7% del peso total del Índice de Precios al Consumidor (IPC), refleja más fielmente la tendencia subyacente de la inflación y logra capturar el movimiento más permanente del nivel general de precios, aislando las variaciones en precios relativos. Además, el ISI es fácil de calcular e interpretar lo cual ayuda a incrementar la transparencia y credibilidad de la política monetaria. También es un indicador oportuno, aumentando su valor para los que formulan la política monetaria. Por último, el ISI supera algunas de las limitaciones del INI, como son la falta de un criterio estadístico para definir el punto de corte de los bienes y servicios a excluir y el alto porcentaje del peso total del IPC eliminado. AbstractThis paper builds and evaluates several alternative measures of core inflation for Costa Rica. The chosen measure of core inflation is contrasted with the core inflation index (INI), which is the indicator of underlying inflation used today by the Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR). The main idea is that core inflation is a good indicator of the underlying inflation and catches the part of overall price change common to all the goods and services that is expected to persist in the medium-term and long-term, and excludes changes in the relative prices of goods and services.The Underlying Inflation Index (ISI) is defined as a measure of core inflation which excludes 30,7% of the total weight of the Consumer Price Index (IPC), it is the most closely related with inflation´s underlying trend and catches the component of overall price change that is expected to persist in the general level of prices. Furthermore, the ISI is easy to compute and to follow, increasing the transparency and credibility of monetary policy and moreover is an timely indicator increasing its value for the monetary policy makers. Finally, the ISI exceed some limitations of INI, as the absence of statistic criterion to define the cutting point of goods and services to exclude and the high percent of total weight eliminated of IPC.

Core-valence Correlation Effects On Ir Calculations: The Bf3 And Bcl3 Cases.

The first theoretical results of core-valence correlation effects are presented for the infrared wavenumbers and intensities of the BF3 and BCl3 molecules, using (double- and triple-zeta) Dunning core-valence basis sets at the CCSD(T) level. The results are compared with those calculated in the frozen core approximation with standard Dunning basis sets at the same correlation level and with the experimental values. The general conclusion is that the effect of core-valence correlation is, for infrared wavenumbers and intensities, smaller than the effect of adding augmented diffuse functions to the basis set, e.g., cc-pVTZ to aug-cc-pVTZ. Moreover, the trends observed in the data are mainly related to the augmented functions rather than the core-valence functions added to the basis set. The results obtained here confirm previous studies pointing out the large descrepancy between the theoretical and experimental intensities of the stretching mode for BCl3.

Compact Ag@fe3o4 Core-shell Nanoparticles By Means Of Single-step Thermal Decomposition Reaction.

A temperature pause introduced in a simple single-step thermal decomposition of iron, with the presence of silver seeds formed in the same reaction mixture, gives rise to novel compact heterostructures: brick-like Ag@Fe3O4 core-shell nanoparticles. This novel method is relatively easy to implement, and could contribute to overcome the challenge of obtaining a multifunctional heteroparticle in which a noble metal is surrounded by magnetite. Structural analyses of the samples show 4 nm silver nanoparticles wrapped within compact cubic external structures of Fe oxide, with curious rectangular shape. The magnetic properties indicate a near superparamagnetic like behavior with a weak hysteresis at room temperature. The value of the anisotropy involved makes these particles candidates to potential applications in nanomedicine.

A Classificação Internacional de Funcionalidade, Incapacidade e Saúde e a AIDS: uma proposta de core set

O advento da terapia anti-retroviral de alta potência (HAART) alterou a história natural da aids, diminuindo sua mortalidade e a incidência de doenças oportunistas e aumentando a esperança de vida das pessoas vivendo com aids.Como uma doença crônica, outras questões passam a ser relevantes, entre elas a adesão ao tratamento, seus efeitos adversos e a qualidade de vida das pessoas nessa condição. A CIF constitui um instrumento adequado para identificar as características da funcionalidade, do ambiente e condições pessoais que interferem na qualidade de vida. Instrumentos para a sua aplicação, core sets, têm sido desenvolvidos para várias condições de saúde. Com o objetivo de propor um core set para aids, foram desenvolvidas duas etapas preliminares do modelo proposto para a construção desses instrumentos. A primeira etapa, de revisão sistemática buscou no MEDLINE artigos com descritores HAART e qualidade de vida, publicados em inglês, de 2000 a 2004. Foram selecionados 31 estudos que resultou em 87 conceitos dos quais 66 puderam ser identificados como categorias da CIF. Estas formaram as perguntas da entrevista aplicada em 42 voluntários, pacientes de um centro de referência para DST e Aids de São Paulo. Entre as condições mais freqüentemente associadas ao tratamento, estão às mudanças na imagem corporal, conseqüência da lipodistrofia, apontada em 84 por cento dos estudos e em 93 por cento das entrevistas. Alterações das funções digestivas, das relações íntimas, e das funções sexuais foram condições importantes identificadas no estudo. As duas etapas definiram 40 categorias da CIF como proposta preliminar de um core set para pacientes com aids

Defects in vesicle core induced by Escherichia coli dihydroorotate dehydrogenase

Dihydroorotate dehydrogenase (DHODH) catalyzes the oxidation of dihydroorotate to orotate during the fourth step of the de novo pyrimidine synthesis pathway. In rapidly proliferating mammalian cells, pyrimidine salvage pathway is insufficient to overcome deficiencies in that pathway for nucleotide synthesis. Moreover, as certain parasites lack salvage enzymes, relying solely on the de novo pathway, DHODH inhibition has turned out as an efficient way to block pyrimidine biosynthesis. Escherichia coli DHODH (EcDHODH) is a class 2 DHODH, found associated to cytosolic membranes through an N-terminal extension. We used electronic spin resonance (ESR) to study the interaction of EcDHODH with vesicles of 1,2-dioleoyl-sn-glycero-phosphatidylcholine/detergent. Changes in vesicle dynamic structure induced by the enzyme were monitored via spin labels located at different positions of phospholipid derivatives. Two-component ESR spectra are obtained for labels 5- and 1 0-phosphatidylcholine in presence of EcDHODH, whereas other probes show a single-component spectrum. The appearance of an additional spectral component with features related to fast-motion regime of the probe is attributed to the formation of a defect-like structure in the membrane hydrophobic region. This is probably the mechanism used by the protein to capture quinones used as electron acceptors during catalysis. The use of specific spectral simulation routines allows us to characterize the ESR spectra in terms of changes in polarity and mobility around the spin-labeled phospholipids. We believe this is the first report of direct evidences concerning the binding of class 2 DHODH to membrane systems.