Copula-based regression models: A survey

In this review paper we collect several results about copula-based models, especially concerning regression models, by focusing on some insurance applications. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

U.S. subprime financial crisis contagion on BRIC and European Union stock markets

ABSTRACTThe Copula Theory was used to analyze contagion among the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) and European Union stock markets with the U.S. Equity Market. The market indexes used for the period between January 01, 2005 and February 27, 2010 are: MXBRIC (BRIC), MXEU (European Union) and MXUS (United States). This article evaluated the adequacy of the main copulas found in the financial literature using log-likelihood, Akaike information and Bayesian information criteria. This article provides a groundbreaking study in the area of contagion due to the use of conditional copulas, allowing to calculate the correlation increase between indexes with non-parametric approach. The conditional Symmetrized Joe-Clayton copula was the one that fitted better to the considered pairs of returns. Results indicate evidence of contagion effect in both markets, European Union and BRIC members, with a 5% significance level. Furthermore, there is also evidence that the contagion of U.S. financial crisis was more pronounced in the European Union than in the BRIC markets, with a 5% significance level. Therefore, stock portfolios formed by equities from the BRIC countries were able to offer greater protection during the subprime crisis. The results are aligned with recent papers that present an increase in correlation between stock markets, especially in bear markets.

Estimação Bayesiana dos parâmetros da distribuição Exponencial Generalizada Bivariada

Pós-graduação em Matematica Aplicada e Computacional - FCT

A conspiracy theory for clefts : the syntax and interpretation of cleft constructions

O objetivo final deste estudo é contribuir para a discussão sobre qual a medida em que conceitos semânticos e discursivos estão sintaticamente codificados. Mais especificamente, investiga-se se existe alguma correlação consistente entre alguns aspetos interpretativos e sintáticos de quatro construções clivadas do Português Europeu, e como se deve dar conta teoricamente destas potenciais correlações. As clivadas consideradas são as clivadas canónicas, as pseudoclivadas, as clivadas de é que e as clivadas de SER. Sintaticamente podemos distinguir dois tipos: clivadas bioracionais (canónicas e pseudoclivadas) e clivadas mono-oracionais (clivadas de é que e de SER). Todas as estruturas têm um constituinte clivado focalizado que pode constituir tanto um foco informacional como um foco contrastivo, e uma oração clivada que introduz uma pressuposição existencial. Adicionalmente, o constituinte clivado identifica exaustivamente uma posição vazia na oração clivada. Adota-se a semântica alternativa para o foco (Rooth 1985), segundo a qual o foco entoacional contribui uniformemente um conjunto de alternativas na Forma Lógica. Regras pragmáticas operando neste conjunto dão origem a duas implicaturas que podem ser suspensas: pressuposição existencial e exaustividade. Dado que as clivadas de é que e as de SER têm a mesma interpretação que orações não-clivadas, conclui-se que a sua estrutura sintática particular não contribui para estas propriedades interpretativas. Em contrapartida, as clivadas bioracionais, que são orações copulativas especificacionais, têm uma presuposição existencial e uma interpretação exaustiva que não pode ser suspensa, tal como as orações especificacionais não-clivadas. Argumenta-se que isto se deve ao facto de o constituinte clivado identificar uma variável introduzida por uma descrição definida. Demonstra-se que a oração clivada, uma relativa em posição de complemento de um determinador definido nas clivadas canónicas e uma relativa livre nas pseudoclivadas, tem a mesma denotação que um DP definido, e portanto tem uma pressuposição existencial inerente. A interpretação exaustiva deve-se à relação identificacional entre o constituinte clivado e a descrição definida. Além disso, defende-se que em Português Europeu um traço de foco não desencadeia movimento-A’ para um FocP especializado. Os constituintes focalizados movem-se antes por razões independentes do foco. Isto é confirmado pelo facto de apenas o constituinte clivado das clivadas de é que ter propriedades de movimento A’, os outros parecem estar in situ. Propõe-se que o constituinte clivado das clivadas de é que é um tópico com um traço de foco que se move para um TopP. Esta análise dá conta da existência de restrições discursivas semelhantes para tópicos não focalizados e para o constituinte clivado das clivadas de é que. O traço quantificacional de foco arrastado pela topicalização dá origem a efeitos de intervenção, causando a não-recursividade do foco na periferia esquerda e a sua incompatibilidade com movimento de outros constituintes com traços quantificacionais. A análise prediz as restrições de encaixe observadas para as clivadas de é que. Finalmente, desenvolve-se uma análise sintática das clivadas de SER que aproxima estas estruturas das estruturas com partículas de foco. Propõe-se que a cópula é um operador sensível ao foco que é merged juntamente com o constituinte clivado. As restrições distribucionais da cópula devem-se a requisitos selecionais de núcleos.

Estimators and Tests based on Likelihood-Depth with Application to Weibull Distribution, Gaussian and Gumbel Copula

In dieser Arbeit werden mithilfe der Likelihood-Tiefen, eingeführt von Mizera und Müller (2004), (ausreißer-)robuste Schätzfunktionen und Tests für den unbekannten Parameter einer stetigen Dichtefunktion entwickelt. Die entwickelten Verfahren werden dann auf drei verschiedene Verteilungen angewandt. Für eindimensionale Parameter wird die Likelihood-Tiefe eines Parameters im Datensatz als das Minimum aus dem Anteil der Daten, für die die Ableitung der Loglikelihood-Funktion nach dem Parameter nicht negativ ist, und dem Anteil der Daten, für die diese Ableitung nicht positiv ist, berechnet. Damit hat der Parameter die größte Tiefe, für den beide Anzahlen gleich groß sind. Dieser wird zunächst als Schätzer gewählt, da die Likelihood-Tiefe ein Maß dafür sein soll, wie gut ein Parameter zum Datensatz passt. Asymptotisch hat der Parameter die größte Tiefe, für den die Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass für eine Beobachtung die Ableitung der Loglikelihood-Funktion nach dem Parameter nicht negativ ist, gleich einhalb ist. Wenn dies für den zu Grunde liegenden Parameter nicht der Fall ist, ist der Schätzer basierend auf der Likelihood-Tiefe verfälscht. In dieser Arbeit wird gezeigt, wie diese Verfälschung korrigiert werden kann sodass die korrigierten Schätzer konsistente Schätzungen bilden. Zur Entwicklung von Tests für den Parameter, wird die von Müller (2005) entwickelte Simplex Likelihood-Tiefe, die eine U-Statistik ist, benutzt. Es zeigt sich, dass für dieselben Verteilungen, für die die Likelihood-Tiefe verfälschte Schätzer liefert, die Simplex Likelihood-Tiefe eine unverfälschte U-Statistik ist. Damit ist insbesondere die asymptotische Verteilung bekannt und es lassen sich Tests für verschiedene Hypothesen formulieren. Die Verschiebung in der Tiefe führt aber für einige Hypothesen zu einer schlechten Güte des zugehörigen Tests. Es werden daher korrigierte Tests eingeführt und Voraussetzungen angegeben, unter denen diese dann konsistent sind. Die Arbeit besteht aus zwei Teilen. Im ersten Teil der Arbeit wird die allgemeine Theorie über die Schätzfunktionen und Tests dargestellt und zudem deren jeweiligen Konsistenz gezeigt. Im zweiten Teil wird die Theorie auf drei verschiedene Verteilungen angewandt: Die Weibull-Verteilung, die Gauß- und die Gumbel-Copula. Damit wird gezeigt, wie die Verfahren des ersten Teils genutzt werden können, um (robuste) konsistente Schätzfunktionen und Tests für den unbekannten Parameter der Verteilung herzuleiten. Insgesamt zeigt sich, dass für die drei Verteilungen mithilfe der Likelihood-Tiefen robuste Schätzfunktionen und Tests gefunden werden können. In unverfälschten Daten sind vorhandene Standardmethoden zum Teil überlegen, jedoch zeigt sich der Vorteil der neuen Methoden in kontaminierten Daten und Daten mit Ausreißern.

[the Teaching Of Social Sciences In Health: Between Practice And Theory].

The models of teaching social sciences and clinical practice are insufficient for the needs of practical-reflective teaching of social sciences applied to health. The scope of this article is to reflect on the challenges and perspectives of social science education for health professionals. In the 1950s the important movement bringing together social sciences and the field of health began, however weak credentials still prevail. This is due to the low professional status of social scientists in health and the ill-defined position of the social sciences professionals in the health field. It is also due to the scant importance attributed by students to the social sciences, the small number of professionals and the colonization of the social sciences by the biomedical culture in the health field. Thus, the professionals of social sciences applied to health are also faced with the need to build an identity, even after six decades of their presence in the field of health. This is because their ambivalent status has established them as a partial, incomplete and virtual presence, requiring a complex survival strategy in the nebulous area between social sciences and health.

Atomic Charge Transfer-counter Polarization Effects Determine Infrared Ch Intensities Of Hydrocarbons: A Quantum Theory Of Atoms In Molecules Model.

Atomic charge transfer-counter polarization effects determine most of the infrared fundamental CH intensities of simple hydrocarbons, methane, ethylene, ethane, propyne, cyclopropane and allene. The quantum theory of atoms in molecules/charge-charge flux-dipole flux model predicted the values of 30 CH intensities ranging from 0 to 123 km mol(-1) with a root mean square (rms) error of only 4.2 km mol(-1) without including a specific equilibrium atomic charge term. Sums of the contributions from terms involving charge flux and/or dipole flux averaged 20.3 km mol(-1), about ten times larger than the average charge contribution of 2.0 km mol(-1). The only notable exceptions are the CH stretching and bending intensities of acetylene and two of the propyne vibrations for hydrogens bound to sp hybridized carbon atoms. Calculations were carried out at four quantum levels, MP2/6-311++G(3d,3p), MP2/cc-pVTZ, QCISD/6-311++G(3d,3p) and QCISD/cc-pVTZ. The results calculated at the QCISD level are the most accurate among the four with root mean square errors of 4.7 and 5.0 km mol(-1) for the 6-311++G(3d,3p) and cc-pVTZ basis sets. These values are close to the estimated aggregate experimental error of the hydrocarbon intensities, 4.0 km mol(-1). The atomic charge transfer-counter polarization effect is much larger than the charge effect for the results of all four quantum levels. Charge transfer-counter polarization effects are expected to also be important in vibrations of more polar molecules for which equilibrium charge contributions can be large.

Beliefs Related To Adherence To Oral Antidiabetic Treatment According To The Theory Of Planned Behavior.

to identify salient behavioral, normative, control and self-efficacy beliefs related to the behavior of adherence to oral antidiabetic agents, using the Theory of Planned Behavior. cross-sectional, exploratory study with 17 diabetic patients in chronic use of oral antidiabetic medication and in outpatient follow-up. Individual interviews were recorded, transcribed and content-analyzed using pre-established categories. behavioral beliefs concerning advantages and disadvantages of adhering to medication emerged, such as the possibility of avoiding complications from diabetes, preventing or delaying the use of insulin, and a perception of side effects. The children of patients and physicians are seen as important social references who influence medication adherence. The factors that facilitate adherence include access to free-of-cost medication and taking medications associated with temporal markers. On the other hand, a complex therapeutic regimen was considered a factor that hinders adherence. Understanding how to use medication and forgetfulness impact the perception of patients regarding their ability to adhere to oral antidiabetic agents. medication adherence is a complex behavior permeated by behavioral, normative, control and self-efficacy beliefs that should be taken into account when assessing determinants of behavior.

Pedagogia do esporte : pressupostos para uma teoria da avaliação da aprendizagem = Sport pedagogy: presuppositions for a learning assessment theory

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

Pulsar binary systems in a nonsymmetric theory of gravitation II. Dipole radiation

This paper deals with the emission of gravitational radiation in the context of a previously studied metric nonsymmetric theory of gravitation. The part coming from the symmetric part of the metric coincides with the mass quadrupole moment result of general relativity. The one associated to the antisymmetric part of the metric involves the dipole moment of the fermionic charge of the system. The results are applied to binary star systems and the decrease of the period of the elliptical motion is calculated.

Nonexistence of regular stationary solution in a metric nonsymmetric theory of gravitation

It is proven that the field equations of a previously studied metric nonsymmetric theory of gravitation do not admit any non-singular stationary solution which represents a field of non-vanishing total mass and non-vanishing total fermionic charge.

Analyzing the n→π* Electronic Transition of Formaldehyde in Water. A Sequential Monte Carlo/Time-Dependent Density Functional Theory

The n→π* absorption transition of formaldehyde in water is analyzed using combined and sequential classical Monte Carlo (MC) simulations and quantum mechanics (QM) calculations. MC simulations generate the liquid solute-solvent structures for subsequent QM calculations. Using time-dependent density functional theory in a localized set of gaussian basis functions (TD-DFT/6-311++G(d,p)) calculations are made on statistically relevant configurations to obtain the average solvatochromic shift. All results presented here use the electrostatic embedding of the solvent. The statistically converged average result obtained of 2300 cm-1 is compared to previous theoretical results available. Analysis is made of the effective dipole moment of the hydrogen-bonded shell and how it could be held responsible for the polarization of the solvent molecules in the outer solvation shells.

Density functional theory study of Fe(3)Ga

First-principles scalar relativistic calculations in supercells of 16 atoms are used to represent disordered B2 ordering of Fe(3)Ga in order to observe the effect of Ga-Ga pairs on the electronic structure of this alloy. From a comparison with pure bcc Fe it is observed that the energy position and occupation of e(g) and t(2g) states are largely affected by the Ga-Ga pairs and strengthened intraplane interactions takes place. The results show that a larger hybridization of the conduction band is in the source of the magnetostriction enhancement experimentally observed in Galfenol. (C) 2011 American Institute of Physics. [doi:10.1063/1.3525609]

A new constitutive theory extending Hypoplasticity

The purpose of the present theory is to improve Hypoplasticity, especially in relation to reloading processes. This is done by means of two hypoplastic equations (a classical equation along with a new one containing a so-called mnemonic tensor), a cone in stress space and a criterion defining loading, unloading and reloading. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Decision theory applied to image quality control in radiology

Background: The present work aims at the application of the decision theory to radiological image quality control ( QC) in diagnostic routine. The main problem addressed in the framework of decision theory is to accept or reject a film lot of a radiology service. The probability of each decision of a determined set of variables was obtained from the selected films. Methods: Based on a radiology service routine a decision probability function was determined for each considered group of combination characteristics. These characteristics were related to the film quality control. These parameters were also framed in a set of 8 possibilities, resulting in 256 possible decision rules. In order to determine a general utility application function to access the decision risk, we have used a simple unique parameter called r. The payoffs chosen were: diagnostic's result (correct/incorrect), cost (high/low), and patient satisfaction (yes/no) resulting in eight possible combinations. Results: Depending on the value of r, more or less risk will occur related to the decision-making. The utility function was evaluated in order to determine the probability of a decision. The decision was made with patients or administrators' opinions from a radiology service center. Conclusion: The model is a formal quantitative approach to make a decision related to the medical imaging quality, providing an instrument to discriminate what is really necessary to accept or reject a film or a film lot. The method presented herein can help to access the risk level of an incorrect radiological diagnosis decision.