Crash Risk Assessment with Cooperative Systems

Crash risk is the statistical probability of a crash. Its assessment can be performed through ex post statistical analysis or in real-time with on-vehicle systems. These systems can be cooperative. Cooperative Vehicle-Infrastructure Systems (CVIS) are a developing research avenue in the automotive industry worldwide. This paper provides a survey of existing CVIS systems and methods to assess crash risk with them. It describes the advantages of cooperative systems versus non-cooperative systems. A sample of cooperative crash risk assessment systems is analysed to extract vulnerabilities according to three criteria: market penetration, over-reliance on GPS and broadcasting issues. It shows that cooperative risk assessment systems are still in their infancy and requires further development to provide their full benefits to road users.

Comparing cooperative and non-cooperative crash risk assessment

Cooperative Systems provide, through the multiplication of information sources over the road, a lot of potential to improve the assessment of the road risk describing a particular driving situation. In this paper, we compare the performance of a cooperative risk assessment approach against a non-cooperative approach; we used an advanced simulation framework, allowing for accurate and detailed, close-to-reality simulations. Risk is estimated, in both cases, with combinations of indicators based on the TTC. For the non-cooperative approach, vehicles are equipped only with an AAC-like forward-facing ranging sensor. On the other hand, for the cooperative approach, vehicles share information through 802.11p IVC and create an augmented map representing their environment; risk indicators are then extracted from this map. Our system shows that the cooperative risk assessment provides a systematic increase of forward warning to most of the vehicles involved in a freeway emergency braking scenario, compared to a non-cooperative system.

Simulation architecture for cooperative ITS applications and augmented perception

Cooperative Systems provide, through the multiplication of information sources over the road, a lot of potential to improve the safety of road users, especially drivers. However, developing cooperative ITS applications requires additional resources compared to non-cooperative applications which are both time consuming and expensive. In this paper, we present a simulation architecture aimed at prototyping cooperative ITS applications in an accurate and detailed, close-to-reality environment; the architecture is designed to be modular and generalist. It can be used to simulate any type of CS applications as well as augmented perception. Then, we discuss the results of two applications deployed with our architecture, using a common freeway emergency braking scenario. The first application is Emergency Electronic Brake Light (EEBL); we discuss improvements in safety in terms of the number of crashes and the severity of crashes. The second application compares the performance of a cooperative risk assessment using an augmented map against a non-cooperative approach based on local-perception only. Our results show a systematic improvement of forward warning time for most vehicles in the string when using the augmented-map-based risk assessment.

Le principe québécois de l'impartageabilité de la réserve des coopératives non financières: discussion critique autour du maintien ou de la suppression

La réserve générale interdite de partage entre les membres est un avoir obligatoire, impartageable tout au long de l’existence de la coopérative et sujet à la «dévolution désintéressée en cas de liquidation ou de dissolution». Cette réserve fonctionne comme un levier de soutien au développement de la coopérative et du mouvement coopératif dans son ensemble. Le principe de l’impartageabilité de la réserve est l’interdiction faite à toutes les coopératives du Québec de partager la réserve générale entre tous les membres et l’interdiction de la diminuer, notamment par l’attribution d’une ristourne tout au long de l’existence de la coopérative. En effet, l’impartageabilité de la réserve se fonde sur l’idée que la coopérative n’a pas pour but l’accumulation des capitaux afin de les répartir entre les membres, mais il s’agit de la création d’un capital collectif qui bénéficie à tous les adhérents présents et futurs. Si le concept de l’impartageabilité de la réserve interdit donc le partage de la réserve tout au long de l’existence de la coopérative, cette même interdiction prend le nom de la dévolution désintéressée de l’actif net au moment de la disparition de la coopérative. Cette dévolution désintéressée signifie l’interdiction faite à toutes les coopératives non financières de partager le solde de l’actif lors de la disparition (dissolution ou liquidation) de la coopérative à l’exception des coopératives agricoles qui peuvent décider dans ce cas, de distribuer le solde de l’actif aux membres sans qu’on sache les raisons de cette exception. Par ailleurs, l’impartageabilité de la réserve est considérée comme un simple inconvénient juridique pour les membres et a connu quelques réécritures dans les législations sur les coopératives sans qu’on connaisse vraiment les raisons de ces modifications. L’objectif de notre thèse est d’engager une discussion critique autour du questionnement central suivant : au regard du cadre juridique actuel sur les coopératives, le principe de l’impartageabilité de la réserve doit être maintenu comme tel dans la Loi sur les coopératives, ou être tout simplement supprimé, comme dans la société par actions, où il est inexistant sans que cette suppression ne porte atteinte à la notion juridique de la coopérative? Plus précisément, quel est ce cadre juridique et quels sont les motifs qui peuvent plaider en faveur du maintien ou de la suppression du principe de l’impartageabilité de la réserve? Pour répondre à cette question, cette thèse se divise en deux parties. La première partie explore le cadre juridique des coopératives non financières au Québec en comparaison avec certains concepts juridiques issus d’autres législations. Elle étudie les fondements juridiques sous-jacents à l’impartageabilité de la réserve en droit québécois des coopératives non financières. La deuxième partie réalise une discussion critique autour de l’histoire du principe de l’impartageabilité de la réserve (ch. 3), des différents arguments juridiques disponibles (ch. 4) et d’hypothèses articulées autour des effets concrets disponibles (ch. 5). Elle explore ces dimensions au soutien du maintien ou non de l’impartageabilité de la réserve de la législation actuelle sur les coopératives non financières. Bien que la recherche effectuée conduise à une réponse nuancée, l'ensemble des résultats milite plutôt en faveur du maintien du principe de l'impartageabilité de la réserve. Au préalable, l’observation des fondements juridiques des concepts sous-jacents à l’impartageabilité de la réserve en droit québécois des coopératives non financières a permis de comprendre les concepts sous-jacents à ce principe avant de répondre à la question autour de son maintien ou de sa suppression de la législation actuelle sur les coopératives. La discussion réalisée a permis de souligner l’importance d’une réalité de base assez évidente : ce principe permet de préserver la réserve, utile au développement de la coopérative et du mouvement coopératif dans son ensemble. De plus, ce principe de l’impartageabilité de la réserve s’inscrit dans le cadre de la vocation sociale de la coopérative, qui n’a pas pour but la maximisation du profit pécuniaire. L’impartageabilité de la réserve s’inscrit également dans le cadre de la cohérence du droit québécois des coopératives avec la notion de coopérative telle que définie par le mouvement coopératif québécois et l’ACI tout en répondant aux finalités historiques d’équité entre les générations et de solidarité. Enfin, même si la discussion des arguments tirés des illustrations de données comptables et de quelques entretiens réalisés avec certains membres actifs du mouvement coopératif ne permet pas de mener à toute conclusion ferme, il ressort que l’impartageabilité de la réserve ne freinerait pas la tendance à la hausse des investissements et du chiffre d’affaires des coopératives non financières. Cette interdiction constituerait même un mécanisme d’autofinancement de la coopérative et un symbole de solidarité.

Le principe québécois de l'impartageabilité de la réserve des coopératives non financières: discussion critique autour du maintien ou de la suppression

La réserve générale interdite de partage entre les membres est un avoir obligatoire, impartageable tout au long de l’existence de la coopérative et sujet à la «dévolution désintéressée en cas de liquidation ou de dissolution». Cette réserve fonctionne comme un levier de soutien au développement de la coopérative et du mouvement coopératif dans son ensemble. Le principe de l’impartageabilité de la réserve est l’interdiction faite à toutes les coopératives du Québec de partager la réserve générale entre tous les membres et l’interdiction de la diminuer, notamment par l’attribution d’une ristourne tout au long de l’existence de la coopérative. En effet, l’impartageabilité de la réserve se fonde sur l’idée que la coopérative n’a pas pour but l’accumulation des capitaux afin de les répartir entre les membres, mais il s’agit de la création d’un capital collectif qui bénéficie à tous les adhérents présents et futurs. Si le concept de l’impartageabilité de la réserve interdit donc le partage de la réserve tout au long de l’existence de la coopérative, cette même interdiction prend le nom de la dévolution désintéressée de l’actif net au moment de la disparition de la coopérative. Cette dévolution désintéressée signifie l’interdiction faite à toutes les coopératives non financières de partager le solde de l’actif lors de la disparition (dissolution ou liquidation) de la coopérative à l’exception des coopératives agricoles qui peuvent décider dans ce cas, de distribuer le solde de l’actif aux membres sans qu’on sache les raisons de cette exception. Par ailleurs, l’impartageabilité de la réserve est considérée comme un simple inconvénient juridique pour les membres et a connu quelques réécritures dans les législations sur les coopératives sans qu’on connaisse vraiment les raisons de ces modifications. L’objectif de notre thèse est d’engager une discussion critique autour du questionnement central suivant : au regard du cadre juridique actuel sur les coopératives, le principe de l’impartageabilité de la réserve doit être maintenu comme tel dans la Loi sur les coopératives, ou être tout simplement supprimé, comme dans la société par actions, où il est inexistant sans que cette suppression ne porte atteinte à la notion juridique de la coopérative? Plus précisément, quel est ce cadre juridique et quels sont les motifs qui peuvent plaider en faveur du maintien ou de la suppression du principe de l’impartageabilité de la réserve? Pour répondre à cette question, cette thèse se divise en deux parties. La première partie explore le cadre juridique des coopératives non financières au Québec en comparaison avec certains concepts juridiques issus d’autres législations. Elle étudie les fondements juridiques sous-jacents à l’impartageabilité de la réserve en droit québécois des coopératives non financières. La deuxième partie réalise une discussion critique autour de l’histoire du principe de l’impartageabilité de la réserve (ch. 3), des différents arguments juridiques disponibles (ch. 4) et d’hypothèses articulées autour des effets concrets disponibles (ch. 5). Elle explore ces dimensions au soutien du maintien ou non de l’impartageabilité de la réserve de la législation actuelle sur les coopératives non financières. Bien que la recherche effectuée conduise à une réponse nuancée, l'ensemble des résultats milite plutôt en faveur du maintien du principe de l'impartageabilité de la réserve. Au préalable, l’observation des fondements juridiques des concepts sous-jacents à l’impartageabilité de la réserve en droit québécois des coopératives non financières a permis de comprendre les concepts sous-jacents à ce principe avant de répondre à la question autour de son maintien ou de sa suppression de la législation actuelle sur les coopératives. La discussion réalisée a permis de souligner l’importance d’une réalité de base assez évidente : ce principe permet de préserver la réserve, utile au développement de la coopérative et du mouvement coopératif dans son ensemble. De plus, ce principe de l’impartageabilité de la réserve s’inscrit dans le cadre de la vocation sociale de la coopérative, qui n’a pas pour but la maximisation du profit pécuniaire. L’impartageabilité de la réserve s’inscrit également dans le cadre de la cohérence du droit québécois des coopératives avec la notion de coopérative telle que définie par le mouvement coopératif québécois et l’ACI tout en répondant aux finalités historiques d’équité entre les générations et de solidarité. Enfin, même si la discussion des arguments tirés des illustrations de données comptables et de quelques entretiens réalisés avec certains membres actifs du mouvement coopératif ne permet pas de mener à toute conclusion ferme, il ressort que l’impartageabilité de la réserve ne freinerait pas la tendance à la hausse des investissements et du chiffre d’affaires des coopératives non financières. Cette interdiction constituerait même un mécanisme d’autofinancement de la coopérative et un symbole de solidarité.

Investment decision-making under risk (reliability) and uncertainty for infrastructure asset management

Risks and uncertainties are inevitable in engineering projects and infrastructure investments. Decisions about investment in infrastructure such as for maintenance, rehabilitation and construction works can pose risks, and may generate significant impacts on social, cultural, environmental and other related issues. This report presents the results of a literature review of current practice in identifying, quantifying and managing risks and predicting impacts as part of the planning and assessment process for infrastructure investment proposals. In assessing proposals for investment in infrastructure, it is necessary to consider social, cultural and environmental risks and impacts to the overall community, as well as financial risks to the investor. The report defines and explains the concept of risk and uncertainty, and describes the three main methodology approaches to the analysis of risk and uncertainty in investment planning for infrastructure, viz examining a range of scenarios or options, sensitivity analysis, and a statistical probability approach, listed here in order of increasing merit and complexity. Forecasts of costs, benefits and community impacts of infrastructure are recognised as central aspects of developing and assessing investment proposals. Increasingly complex modelling techniques are being used for investment evaluation. The literature review identified forecasting errors as the major cause of risk. The report contains a summary of the broad nature of decision-making tools used by governments and other organisations in Australia, New Zealand, Europe and North America, and shows their overall approach to risk assessment in assessing public infrastructure proposals. While there are established techniques to quantify financial and economic risks, quantification is far less developed for political, social and environmental risks and impacts. The report contains a summary of the broad nature of decision-making tools used by governments and other organisations in Australia, New Zealand, Europe and North America, and shows their overall approach to risk assessment in assessing public infrastructure proposals. While there are established techniques to quantify financial and economic risks, quantification is far less developed for political, social and environmental risks and impacts. For risks that cannot be readily quantified, assessment techniques commonly include classification or rating systems for likelihood and consequence. The report outlines the system used by the Australian Defence Organisation and in the Australian Standard on risk management. After each risk is identified and quantified or rated, consideration can be given to reducing the risk, and managing any remaining risk as part of the scope of the project. The literature review identified use of risk mapping techniques by a North American chemical company and by the Australian Defence Organisation. This literature review has enabled a risk assessment strategy to be developed, and will underpin an examination of the feasibility of developing a risk assessment capability using a probability approach.

Final : report assessing risk and variation in maintenance and rehabilitation costs for road network

This report presents the results of research projects conducted by The Australian Cooperative Research Centre for Construction Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, RMIT University, Queensland Government Department of Main Roads and Queensland Department of Public Works. The research projects aimed at developing a methodology for assessing variation and risk in investment in road network, including the application of the method in assessing road network performance and maintenance and rehabilitation costs for short- and long-term future investment.

Report : review of the literature : maintenance and rehabilitation costs for roads (Risk-based Analysis)

Realistic estimates of short- and long-term (strategic) budgets for maintenance and rehabilitation of road assessment management should consider the stochastic characteristics of asset conditions of the road networks so that the overall variability of road asset data conditions is taken into account. The probability theory has been used for assessing life-cycle costs for bridge infrastructures by Kong and Frangopol (2003), Zayed et.al. (2002), Kong and Frangopol (2003), Liu and Frangopol (2004), Noortwijk and Frangopol (2004), Novick (1993). Salem 2003 cited the importance of the collection and analysis of existing data on total costs for all life-cycle phases of existing infrastructure, including bridges, road etc., and the use of realistic methods for calculating the probable useful life of these infrastructures (Salem et. al. 2003). Zayed et. al. (2002) reported conflicting results in life-cycle cost analysis using deterministic and stochastic methods. Frangopol et. al. 2001 suggested that additional research was required to develop better life-cycle models and tools to quantify risks, and benefits associated with infrastructures. It is evident from the review of the literature that there is very limited information on the methodology that uses the stochastic characteristics of asset condition data for assessing budgets/costs for road maintenance and rehabilitation (Abaza 2002, Salem et. al. 2003, Zhao, et. al. 2004). Due to this limited information in the research literature, this report will describe and summarise the methodologies presented by each publication and also suggest a methodology for the current research project funded under the Cooperative Research Centre for Construction Innovation CRC CI project no 2003-029-C.

Identification of critical input variables for risk-based cost estimates for road maintenance and rehabilitation

An estimation of costs for maintenance and rehabilitation is subject to variation due to the uncertainties of input parameters. This paper presents the results of an analysis to identify input parameters that affect the prediction of variation in road deterioration. Road data obtained from 1688 km of a national highway located in the tropical northeast of Queensland in Australia were used in the analysis. Data were analysed using a probability-based method, the Monte Carlo simulation technique and HDM-4’s roughness prediction model. The results of the analysis indicated that among the input parameters the variability of pavement strength, rut depth, annual equivalent axle load and initial roughness affected the variability of the predicted roughness. The second part of the paper presents an analysis to assess the variation in cost estimates due to the variability of the overall identified critical input parameters.

Risk assessment in life-cycle costing for road asset management

Queensland Department of Main Roads, Australia, spends approximately A$ 1 billion annually for road infrastructure asset management. To effectively manage road infrastructure, firstly road agencies not only need to optimise the expenditure for data collection, but at the same time, not jeopardise the reliability in using the optimised data to predict maintenance and rehabilitation costs. Secondly, road agencies need to accurately predict the deterioration rates of infrastructures to reflect local conditions so that the budget estimates could be accurately estimated. And finally, the prediction of budgets for maintenance and rehabilitation must provide a certain degree of reliability. This paper presents the results of case studies in using the probability-based method for an integrated approach (i.e. assessing optimal costs of pavement strength data collection; calibrating deterioration prediction models that suit local condition and assessing risk-adjusted budget estimates for road maintenance and rehabilitation for assessing life-cycle budget estimates). The probability concept is opening the path to having the means to predict life-cycle maintenance and rehabilitation budget estimates that have a known probability of success (e.g. produce budget estimates for a project life-cycle cost with 5% probability of exceeding). The paper also presents a conceptual decision-making framework in the form of risk mapping in which the life-cycle budget/cost investment could be considered in conjunction with social, environmental and political issues.

Framework for investment decision-making under risk and uncertainty for infrastructure asset management

A study has been conducted to investigate current practices on decision-making under risk and uncertainty for infrastructure project investments. It was found that many European countries such as the UK, France, Germany including Australia use scenarios for the investigation of the effects of risk and uncertainty of project investments. Different alternative scenarios are mostly considered during the engineering economic cost-benefit analysis stage. For instance, the World Bank requires an analysis of risks in all project appraisals. Risk in economic evaluation needs to be addressed by calculating sensitivity of the rate of return for a number of events. Risks and uncertainties of project developments arise from various sources of errors including data, model and forecasting errors. It was found that the most influential factors affecting risk and uncertainty resulted from forecasting errors. Data errors and model errors have trivial effects. It was argued by many analysts that scenarios do not forecast what will happen but scenarios indicate only what can happen from given alternatives. It was suggested that the probability distributions of end-products of the project appraisal, such as cost-benefit ratios that take forecasting errors into account, are feasible decision tools for economic evaluation. Political, social, environmental as well as economic and other related risk issues have been addressed and included in decision-making frameworks, such as in a multi-criteria decisionmaking framework. But no suggestion has been made on how to incorporate risk into the investment decision-making process.

Articulating cooperative systems and driver behaviour theories

There has been increased research interest in Co-operative Vehicle Infrastructure Systems (CVIS) from the eld of Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS). However most of the research have focused on the engineering aspects and overlooked their relevance to the drivers' behaviour. This paper argues that the priority for cooperative systems is the need to improve drivers decision making and reduce drivers' crash risk exposure to improve road safety. Therefore any engineering solutions need to be considered in conjuction with traffic psychology theories on driver behaviour. This paper explores the advantages and limitations of existing systems and emphasizes various theoretical issues that arise in articulating cooperative systems' capabilities and drivers' behaviour.

V2V/V2I augmented maps : state-of-the-art and contribution to real-time crash risk assessment

A number of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) are currently being released on the market, providing safety functions to the drivers such as collision avoidance, adaptive cruise control or enhanced night-vision. These systems however are inherently limited by their sensory range: they cannot gather information from outside this range, also called their “perceptive horizon”. Cooperative systems are a developing research avenue that aims at providing extended safety and comfort functionalities by introducing vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) and vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) wireless communications to the road actors. This paper presents the problematic of cooperative systems, their advantages and contributions to road safety and exposes some limitations related to market penetration, sensors accuracy and communications scalability. It explains the issues of how to implement extended perception, a central contribution of cooperative systems. The initial steps of an evaluation of data fusion architectures for extended perception are exposed.

Building an augmented map for road risk assessment

Recent road safety statistics show that the decades-long fatalities decreasing trend is stopping and stagnating. Statistics further show that crashes are mostly driven by human error, compared to other factors such as environmental conditions and mechanical defects. Within human error, the dominant error source is perceptive errors, which represent about 50% of the total. The next two sources are interpretation and evaluation, which accounts together with perception for more than 75% of human error related crashes. Those statistics show that allowing drivers to perceive and understand their environment better, or supplement them when they are clearly at fault, is a solution to a good assessment of road risk, and, as a consequence, further decreasing fatalities. To answer this problem, currently deployed driving assistance systems combine more and more information from diverse sources (sensors) to enhance the driver's perception of their environment. However, because of inherent limitations in range and field of view, these systems' perception of their environment remains largely limited to a small interest zone around a single vehicle. Such limitations can be overcomed by increasing the interest zone through a cooperative process. Cooperative Systems (CS), a specific subset of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS), aim at compensating for local systems' limitations by associating embedded information technology and intervehicular communication technology (IVC). With CS, information sources are not limited to a single vehicle anymore. From this distribution arises the concept of extended or augmented perception. Augmented perception allows extending an actor's perceptive horizon beyond its "natural" limits not only by fusing information from multiple in-vehicle sensors but also information obtained from remote sensors. The end result of an augmented perception and data fusion chain is known as an augmented map. It is a repository where any relevant information about objects in the environment, and the environment itself, can be stored in a layered architecture. This thesis aims at demonstrating that augmented perception has better performance than noncooperative approaches, and that it can be used to successfully identify road risk. We found it was necessary to evaluate the performance of augmented perception, in order to obtain a better knowledge on their limitations. Indeed, while many promising results have already been obtained, the feasibility of building an augmented map from exchanged local perception information and, then, using this information beneficially for road users, has not been thoroughly assessed yet. The limitations of augmented perception, and underlying technologies, have not be thoroughly assessed yet. Most notably, many questions remain unanswered as to the IVC performance and their ability to deliver appropriate quality of service to support life-saving critical systems. This is especially true as the road environment is a complex, highly variable setting where many sources of imperfections and errors exist, not only limited to IVC. We provide at first a discussion on these limitations and a performance model built to incorporate them, created from empirical data collected on test tracks. Our results are more pessimistic than existing literature, suggesting IVC limitations have been underestimated. Then, we develop a new CS-applications simulation architecture. This architecture is used to obtain new results on the safety benefits of a cooperative safety application (EEBL), and then to support further study on augmented perception. At first, we confirm earlier results in terms of crashes numbers decrease, but raise doubts on benefits in terms of crashes' severity. In the next step, we implement an augmented perception architecture tasked with creating an augmented map. Our approach is aimed at providing a generalist architecture that can use many different types of sensors to create the map, and which is not limited to any specific application. The data association problem is tackled with an MHT approach based on the Belief Theory. Then, augmented and single-vehicle perceptions are compared in a reference driving scenario for risk assessment,taking into account the IVC limitations obtained earlier; we show their impact on the augmented map's performance. Our results show that augmented perception performs better than non-cooperative approaches, allowing to almost tripling the advance warning time before a crash. IVC limitations appear to have no significant effect on the previous performance, although this might be valid only for our specific scenario. Eventually, we propose a new approach using augmented perception to identify road risk through a surrogate: near-miss events. A CS-based approach is designed and validated to detect near-miss events, and then compared to a non-cooperative approach based on vehicles equiped with local sensors only. The cooperative approach shows a significant improvement in the number of events that can be detected, especially at the higher rates of system's deployment.