On some Concepts of Residuals

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 60E10, 62G15, 62M20

Confidence in beliefs about pain predicts expectancy effects on pain perception and anticipatory processing in right anterior insula.

Psychological factors play a major role in exacerbating chronic pain. Effective self-management of pain is often hindered by inaccurate beliefs about the nature of pain which lead to a high degree of emotional reactivity. Probabilistic models of perception state that greater confidence (certainty) in beliefs increases their influence on perception and behavior. In this study, we treat confidence as a metacognitive process dissociable from the content of belief. We hypothesized that confidence is associated with anticipatory activation of areas of the pain matrix involved with top-down modulation of pain. Healthy volunteers rated their beliefs about the emotional distress that experimental pain would cause, and separately rated their level of confidence in this belief. Confidence predicted the influence of anticipation cues on experienced pain. We measured brain activity during anticipation of pain using high-density EEG and used electromagnetic tomography to determine neural substrates of this effect. Confidence correlated with activity in right anterior insula, posterior midcingulate and inferior parietal cortices during the anticipation of pain. Activity in the right anterior insula predicted a greater influence of anticipation cues on pain perception, whereas activity in right inferior parietal cortex predicted a decreased influence of anticipatory cues. The results support probabilistic models of pain perception and suggest that confidence in beliefs is an important determinant of expectancy effects on pain perception.

Heritability of the spatial distribution and peak density of macular pigment:a classical twin study

Purpose: To elucidate the heritability of peak density and spatial width of macular pigment (MP) using a Classical Twin Study.

Methods: Fundus autofluorescence images were obtained at 488?nm from 86 subjects or 43 twin pairs (21 monozygotic (MZ) and 22 dizygotic (DZ)) (27 male, 59 female) aged from 55 to 76 years (mean 62.2±5.3 years). The relative topographic distribution of MP was measured using a grey scale of intensity (0-255 units) in a 7° eccentricity around the fovea. Relative peak MP density (rPMPD) and relative spatial distribution of MP (rSDMP) were used as the main outcome measure in the statistical analysis.

Results: A significantly higher correlation was found within MZ pairs as compared with that within DZ pairs for rPMPD, (r=0.99, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.93 to 1.00) and 0.22, 95% CI -0.34 to 0.71), respectively, suggesting strong heritability of this trait. When rSDMP was compared, there was no significant difference between the correlations within MZ pairs (r=0.48, 95% CI -0.02 to 0.83) and DZ pairs (r=0.63, 95% CI 0.32 to 0.83), thus rSDMP is unlikely to have a considerable heritable component. In addition, there was no difference between any MP parameter when normal maculae were compared with early age-related macular degeneration (AMD) (rPMPD 0.36 vs 0.34, t=1.18 P=0.243, rSDMP 1.75 vs 1.75, t=0.028 P=0.977).ConclusionsrPMPD is a strongly heritable trait whereas rSDMP has minimal genetic influence and a greater influence by environmental factors. The presence of macular changes associated with early AMD did not appear to influence any of these pigment parameters. © 2012 Macmillan Publishers Limited All rights reserved 0950-222X/12

Sequential fixed-width confidence bands for kernel regression estimation

We consider a random design model based on independent and identically distributed (iid) pairs of observations (Xi, Yi), where the regression function m(x) is given by m(x) = E(Yi|Xi = x) with one independent variable. In a nonparametric setting the aim is to produce a reasonable approximation to the unknown function m(x) when we have no precise information about the form of the true density, f(x) of X. We describe an estimation procedure of non-parametric regression model at a given point by some appropriately constructed fixed-width (2d) confidence interval with the confidence coefficient of at least 1−. Here, d(> 0) and 2 (0, 1) are two preassigned values. Fixed-width confidence intervals are developed using both Nadaraya-Watson and local linear kernel estimators of nonparametric regression with data-driven bandwidths.

The sample size was optimized using the purely and two-stage sequential procedure together with asymptotic properties of the Nadaraya-Watson and local linear estimators. A large scale simulation study was performed to compare their coverage accuracy. The numerical results indicate that the confidence bands based on the local linear estimator have the best performance than those constructed by using Nadaraya-Watson estimator. However both estimators are shown to have asymptotically correct coverage properties.

Sample size determination for kernel regression estimation using sequential fixed-width confidence bands

We consider a random design model based on independent and identically distributed pairs of observations (Xi, Yi), where the regression function m(x) is given by m(x) = E(Yi|Xi = x) with one independent variable. In a nonparametric setting the aim is to produce a reasonable approximation to the unknown function m(x) when we have no precise information about the form of the true density, f(x) of X. We describe an estimation procedure of non-parametric regression model at a given point by some appropriately constructed fixed-width (2d) confidence interval with the confidence coefficient of at least 1−. Here, d(> 0) and 2 (0, 1) are two preassigned values. Fixed-width confidence intervals are developed using both Nadaraya-Watson and local linear kernel estimators of nonparametric regression with data-driven bandwidths. The sample size was optimized using the purely and two-stage sequential procedures together with asymptotic properties of the Nadaraya-Watson and local linear estimators. A large scale simulation study was performed to compare their coverage accuracy. The numerical results indicate that the confi dence bands based on the local linear estimator have the better performance than those constructed by using Nadaraya-Watson estimator. However both estimators are shown to have asymptotically correct coverage properties.

Association between changes in habitual physical activity and changes in bone density, muscle strength, and functional performance in elderly men and women

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the long-term effects of habitual physical activity on changes in musculoskeletal health, functional performance, and fracture risk in elderly men and women.

DESIGN: Ten-year prospective population-based study.

SETTING: Malmö-Sjöbo Prospective Study, Sweden.

PARTICIPANTS: Participants were 152 men and 206 women aged 50, 60, 70, and 80 who were followed for 10 years.

MEASUREMENTS: Distal radius bone mineral density (BMD) (single photon absorptiometry), upper limb muscle (grip) strength, balance, gait velocity, occupational and leisure-time activity, and fractures (interview-administered questionnaire) were reassessed after 10 years. Annual changes for all measures were compared between participants with varying habitual physical activity histories at baseline and follow-up: inactive–inactive (n=202), active–inactive (n=47), inactive–active (n=49), and active–active (n=60). Data for men and women were pooled, because there were no sex-by-activity group interactions. To detect possible differences in fracture incidence between the varying habitual activity groups, participants were classified into two activity groups based on their activity classification at baseline and follow-up: inactive:less active versus active:more active.

RESULTS: The annual rate of bone loss was 0.6% per year less in individuals classified as active at both time points than in those classified as inactive at both time points (P<.01). Similar results were observed for balance, but there was no effect of varying habitual activity on changes in muscle strength or gait velocity. There were also no differences in fracture incidence between individuals categorized as active:more active and those categorized as inactive:less active during the follow-up (adjusted hazard ratio=0.90, 95% confidence interval (CI)=0.42–1.90).

CONCLUSION: This study showed that elderly men and women who maintained a habitually active lifestyle over 10 years had lower bone loss and retained better balance than those who remained habitually inactive.

Statin use, bone mineral density, and fracture risk: Geelong Osteoporosis Study

Background Recent data suggest that 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl coenzyme A reductase inhibitors (statins) decrease fracture risk and increase bone mineral density (BMD).

Methods This cross-sectional study is set in southeastern Australia. We evaluated the association between statin use, fracture risk, and BMD in 1375 women (573 with incident fractures and 802 without incident fracture, all drawn from the same community). Fractures were identified radiologically. Medication use and lifestyle factors were documented by questionnaire.

Results Unadjusted odds ratio for fracture associated with statin use was 0.40 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.23-0.71). Adjusting for BMD at the femoral neck, spine, and whole body increased the odds ratio to 0.45 (95% CI, 0.25-0.80), 0.42 (95% CI, 0.24-0.75), and 0.43 (95% CI, 0.24-0.78), respectively. Adjusting for age, weight, concurrent medications, and lifestyle factors had no substantial effect on the odds ratio for fracture. Statin use was associated with a 3% greater adjusted BMD at the femoral neck (P = .08), and BMD tended to be greater at the spine and whole body but did not achieve statistical significance.

Conclusion The substantial 60% reduction in fracture risk associated with statin use is greater than would be expected from increases in BMD alone.

Evaluation of three field monitoring-density estimation protocols and their relevance to Komodo dragon conservation

Finding practical ways to robustly estimate abundance or density trends in threatened species is a key facet for effective conservation management. Further identifying less expensive monitoring methods that provide adequate data for robust population density estimates can facilitate increased investment into other conservation initiatives needed for species recovery. Here we evaluated and compared inference-and cost-effectiveness criteria for three field monitoring-density estimation protocols to improve conservation activities for the threatened Komodo dragon (Varanus komodoensis). We undertook line-transect counts, cage trapping and camera monitoring surveys for Komodo dragons at 11 sites within protected areas in Eastern Indonesia to collect data to estimate density using distance sampling methods or the Royle-Nichols abundance induced heterogeneity model. Distance sampling estimates were considered poor due to large confidence intervals, a high coefficient of variation and that false absences were obtained in 45 % of sites where other monitoring methods detected lizards present. The Royle-Nichols model using presence/absence data obtained from cage trapping and camera monitoring produced highly correlated density estimates, obtained similar measures of precision and recorded no false absences in data collation. However because costs associated with camera monitoring were considerably less than cage trapping methods, albeit marginally more expensive than distance sampling, better inference from this method is advocated for ongoing population monitoring of Komodo dragons. Further the cost-savings achieved by adopting this field monitoring method could facilitate increased expenditure on alternative management strategies that could help address current declines in two Komodo dragon populations.

Study on the bone mineral density of broiler suffering femoral joint degenerative lesions

An experiment was carried out with male and females broilers of two different commercial breeds to evaluate bone mineral density of the right femur head. A number of 600 one-day-old broilers were raised in an experimental poultry house up to 42 days of age at the School of Veterinary Medicine and Animal Science of UNESP, Botucatu, Brazil. After slaughter, three males and three females in each breed in each of the established gross scores were selected. Their femora heads were submitted to gross examination, and subsequently the thighs were submitted to the Veterinary Hospital for radiographic analysis. Femora were also submitted to bone resistance, Seedor index, and dry matter content analyses. All these bone quality characteristics were different between males and females, independent of breed. Breeds presented similar behavior. It was possible to establish correlations between bone quality parameters, and confidence intervals for bone mineral density values, correlating them to femoral degeneration score, which allows characterizing femoral head lesions by radiographic optical densitometry.

Assessment of risk factors for low bone mineral density in Brazilian postmenopausal women

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

High current-density anodic electro-dissolution in flow-injection systems for the determination of aluminium, copper and zinc in non-ferroalloys by flame atomic absorption spectrometry

An automatic Procedure with a high current-density anodic electrodissolution unit (HDAE) is proposed for the determination of aluminium, copper and zinc in non-ferroalloys by flame atonic absorption spectrometry, based on the direct solid analysis. It consists of solenoid valve-based commutation in a flow-injection system for on-line sample electro-dissolution and calibration with one multi-element standard, an electrolytic cell equipped with two electrodes (a silver needle acts as cathode, and sample as anode), and an intelligent unit. The latter is assembled in a PC-compatible microcomputer for instrument control, and far data acquisition and processing. General management of the process is achieved by use of software written in Pascal. Electrolyte compositions, flow rates, commutation times, applied current and electrolysis time mere investigated. A 0.5 mol l(-1) HNO3 solution was elected as electrolyte and 300 A/cm(2) as the continuous current pulse. The performance of the proposed system was evaluated by analysing aluminium in Al-allay samples, and copper/zinc in brass and bronze samples, respectively. The system handles about 50 samples per hour. Results are precise (R.S.D < 2%) and in agreement with those obtained by ICP-AES and spectrophotometry at a 95% confidence level.

Relation of Uric Acid to Serum Levels of High-Sensitivity C-Reactive Protein, Triglycerides, and High-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol and to Hepatic Steatosis

Increased uric acid (UA) is strongly linked to cardiovascular disease. However, the independent role of UA is still debated because it is associated with several cardiovascular risk factors including obesity and metabolic syndrome. This study assessed the association of UA with increased high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), increased ratio of triglyceride to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (TG/HDL), sonographically detected hepatic steatosis, and their clustering in the presence and absence of obesity and metabolic syndrome. We evaluated 3,518 employed subjects without clinical cardiovascular disease from November 2008 through July 2010. Prevalence of tis-CRP >= 3 mg/L was 19%, that of TG/HDL >= 3 was 44%, and that of hepatic steatosis was 43%. In multivariable logistic regression after adjusting for traditional cardiovascular risk factors and confounders, highest versus lowest UA quartile was associated with hs-CRP >= 3 mg/L (odds ratio [OR] 1.52, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01 to 2.28, p = 0.04), TG/HDL >= 3 (OR 3.29, 95% CI 2.36 to 4.60, p <0.001), and hepatic steatosis (OR 3.10, 95% CI 2.22 to 4.32, p <0.001) independently of obesity and metabolic syndrome. Association of UA with hs-CRP >= 3 mg/L became nonsignificant in analyses stratified by obesity. Ascending UA quartiles compared to the lowest UA quartile demonstrated a graded increase in the odds of having 2 or 3 of these risk conditions and a successive decrease in the odds of having none. In conclusion, high UA levels were associated with increased TG/HDL and hepatic steatosis independently of metabolic syndrome and obesity and with increased hs-CRP independently of metabolic syndrome. (C) 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. (Am J Cardiol 2012;110:1787-1792)

Low Bone Mineral Density in Middle-Aged Breast Cancer Survivors: Prevalence and Associated Factors

Background: The aim of this study was to investigate the prevalence of low bone mineral density (BMD) and associated factors in middle-aged breast cancer survivors (BCS). Patients and Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted with 70 BCS of 45-65 years of age undergoing complete oncology treatment. Logistic regression models were used to identify factors associated with low BMD (osteopenia and osteoporosis taken together as a single group). Results: The mean age of participants was 53.2 +/- 5.9 years. BMD was low at the femoral neck in 28.6% of patients and at the lumbar spine in 45.7%. Body mass index <= 30 kg/m(2) (adjusted odds ratio (OR) 3.43; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.0-11.3) and postmenopausal status (OR adjusted 20.42; 95% CI 2.0-201.2) were associated with low BMD at the lumbar spine. Femoral neck measurements, age > 50 years (OR 3.41; 95% CI 1.0-11.6), and time since diagnosis > 50 months (OR adjusted 3.34; 95% CI 1.0-11.3) increased the likelihood of low BMD. Conclusion: These findings show that low BMD is common in middle-aged BCS. Factors were identified that may affect BMD in BCS and should be considered when implementing strategies to minimize bone loss in middle-aged women with breast cancer.