Conditional cash transfers, schooling and child labor : micro-simulating bolsa escola

Cash transfers targeted to poor people, but conditional on some behavior on their part, such as school attendance or regular visits to health care facilities, are being adopted in a growing number of developing countries. Even where ex-post impact evaluations have been conducted, a number of policy-relevant counterfactual questions have remained unanswered. These are questions about the potential impact of changes in program design, such as benefit levels or the choice of the means-test, on both the current welfare and the behavioral response of household members. This paper proposes a method to simulate the effects of those alternative program designs on welfare and behavior, based on microeconometrically estimated models of household behavior. In an application to Brazil’s recently introduced federal Bolsa Escola program, we find a surprisingly strong effect of the conditionality on school attendance, but a muted impact of the transfers on the reduction of current poverty and inequality levels.

The long-term effects of conditional cash transfers on child labor and school enrollment

This paper investigates the long-term e ects of conditional cash transfers on school attainment and child labor. To this end, we construct a dynamic heterogeneous agent model, calibrate it with Brazilian data, and introduce a policy similar to the Brazilian Bolsa Fam lia. Our results suggest that this type of policy has a very strong impact on educational outcomes, sharply increasing primary school completion. The conditional transfer is also able to reduce the share of working children from 22% to 17%. We then compute the transition to the new steady state and show that the program actually increases child labor over the short run, because the transfer is not enough to completely cover the schooling costs, so children have to work to be able to comply with the program's schooling eligibility requirement. We also evaluate the impacts on poverty, inequality, and welfare.

Conditional cash transfer programs and the representations of poverty in Bolivia and Peru

Bolivia and Peru adopted the same instruments of social policy —conditional cash transfer programs— to solve the same public problems under different political regimes. By means of the qualitative methodology of discourse analysis, this paper studies the representations of poverty and State made by key actors of those social programs. Underlying more differences than similarities, one demonstrates that the same social policy is linked to opposite social representations of poverty and the State role in every country. The main explanation for this is, far from being imposed by international organizations, those programs are adopted and adapted by each political regime.

On the design of education conditional cash transfer programs and non education outcomes: the case of teenage pregnancy

We investigate the effect of education Conditional Cash Transfer programs (CCTs) on teenage pregnancy. Our main concern is with how the size and sign of the effect may depend on the design of the program. Using a simple model we show that an education CCT that conditions renewal on school performance reduces teenage pregnancy; the program can increase teenage pregnancy if it does not condition on school performance. Then, using an original data base, we estimate the causal impact on teenage pregnancy of two education CCTs implemented in Bogot´a (Subsidio Educativo, SE, and Familias en Acci´on, FA); both programs differ particularly on whether school success is a condition for renewal or not. We show that SE has negative average effect on teenage pregnancy while FA has a null average effect. We also find that SE has either null or no effect for adolescents in all age and grade groups while FA has positive, null or negative effects for adolescents in different age and grade groups. Since SE conditions renewal on school success and FA does not, we can argue that the empirical results are consistent with the predictions of our model and that conditioning renewal of the subsidy on school success crucially determines the effect of the subsidy on teenage pregnancy

Evidence of eligibility manipulation for conditional cash transfer programs

This paper assesses whether eligibility for conditional cash transfer programs have been manipulated, as well as the impact of this phenomenon on time allocation within households. To perform this analysis, we use data from the 2006 PNAD (Brazilian national household survey) and investigate the eligibility manipulation for the Bolsa Família (Family Stipend) program during this time period. The program assists families with a monthly per capita income of around R$120.00 (US$60.00). By applying the tests developed by McCrary (2008), we find suggestive evidence that individuals manipulate their income by voluntarily reducing their labor supply in order to become eligible to the program. Moreover, the reduction in labor supply is greater among women, especially single or divorced mothers. This evidence raises some concern about the unintended consequences related to the eligibility criteria utilized by Bolsa Família, as well as the program’s impact on individuals living in extreme poverty.

Local Distributional Effects of Government Cash Transfers in Chile

Despite rapid economic growth and poverty reduction, inequality in Chile has remained high and remarkably constant over the last 20 years, prompting academic and public interest in the subject. Due to data limitations, however, research on inequality in Chile has concentrated on the national and regional levels. The impact of cash subsidies to poor households on local inequality is thus not well understood. Using poverty-mapping methods to asses this impact, we find heterogeneity in the effectiveness of regional and municipal governments in reducing inequality via poverty-reduction transfers, suggesting that alternative targeting regimes may complement current practice in aiding the poor.

Conditional cash transfer programmes: experiences from Latin America

Includes bibliography

Paraguay's Tekoporã programme for cash transfers: debating targeting methods for beneficiaries

Includes bibliography

Conditional cash transfer programmes: the recent experience in Latin America and the Caribbean

Includes Bibliography

Toward a system of basic cash transfers for children and older persons: An estimation of efforts, impacts and possibilities in Latin America

This paper seeks to estimate the costs and impacts of expanding the coverage and improving the quality of cash transfers to older people and to families with younge children in the countries of Latin America.

The impact of the Bolsa Escola/Familia conditional cash transfer program on enrollment, dropout rates and grade promotion in Brazil

We examine the impact of Brazil's Bolsa Escola/Familia program on Brazilian children's education outcomes. Bolsa provides cash payments to poor households if their children (ages 6 to 15) are enrolled in school. Using school census data to compare changes in enrollment, dropping out and grade promotion across schools that adopted Bolsa at different times, we estimate that the program has: increased enrollment by about 5.5% (6.5%) in grades 1-4 (grades 5-8); lowered dropout rates by 0.5 (0.4) percentage points in grades 1-4 (grades 5-8); and raised grade promotion rates by 0.9 (0.3) percentage points in grades 1-4 (grades 5-8). About one third of Brazil's children participate in Bolsa, so assuming no spillover effects onto non-participants implies that Bolsa's impacts are three times higher than these estimates. However, simple calculations using enrollment impacts suggest that Bolsa's benefits in terms of increased wages may not exceed its costs. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Políticas de igualdade : o Bolsa-Família e a nova social-democracia

Os programas de transferência de renda condicionada tornaram-se uma política social constante nas agendas dos mais variados países da América Latina; entre eles, o Brasil. Inicialmente classificados como um modelo de política de tempos neoliberais, programas como o brasileiro Bolsa Família apresentam, porém, características que os aproximam, cada vez mais, de políticas social-democratas, agora desenhadas para um contexto de maior escassez de recursos e de globalização da produção. Alguns trabalhos, tais como de Esping-Andersen (2002), identificam determinados programas de transferência como uma alternativa de política social para a promoção do bem-estar. Fortalecido e oficialmente lançado em 2003, o Programa Bolsa Família, de transferência de renda condicionada, configurou-se como uma das principais e mais abrangentes políticas sociais do governo de centro-esquerda do Partido dos Trabalhadores, durante a presidência de Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Não contributiva, fortalece o processo de transformação no padrão de proteção social predominante no país até os dias de hoje. Além disso, segundo apontam estudos, é uma das principais responsáveis pela queda da desigualdade e aumento da renda. Esses fatores, bem como aspectos que dizem respeito a sua sustentação política na esfera eleitoral, evidenciam a existência de uma agenda de política social própria da centro-esquerda, a qual perdura, a despeito de uma suposta homogeneização nas preferências diante das limitações fiscais.